Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the long-term bull market is not over, and investors should focus on growth opportunities [8][119] - The easing of trade friction between China and the U.S. has led to improved bilateral trade conditions, with both sides reducing tariffs [8][50] - The report highlights the importance of policy-driven capital inflows into the market, which are expected to stabilize market performance [8][91] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The U.S. tariff policy has caused significant short-term disruptions to its major trading partners, with trade balances showing varying degrees of decline [8][14] - The report notes that the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite the negative impacts of tariff policies, with a rebound in service sector PMI [8][30] - Historical analysis indicates that U.S. tariff policies often lead to self-inflicted economic consequences, typically resulting in negotiations or retractions [8][44] Group 3: Industry Themes and Opportunities - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including defense and military, low-altitude economy, stablecoins, AI technologies, and autonomous robotics [8][119] - The defense and military sector is highlighted due to geopolitical tensions, which are expected to drive demand and performance [8][119] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with market size estimates reaching 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [8][119] Group 4: Economic Recovery and Consumer Trends - Domestic consumption is gradually recovering, with retail sales showing a year-on-year growth of 6.4% in May [8][64] - The report indicates that infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, supported by government policies and funding [8][70] - The real estate market is stabilizing, with a reduction in the inventory of unsold properties and a narrowing decline in housing prices [8][73]

沪指7月10日上涨0.48%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为房地产、石油石 化，涨幅分别为3.19%、1.54%。跌幅居前的行业为汽车、传媒，跌幅分别为0.62%、0.54%。国防军工 行业位居今日跌幅榜第三。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出130.25亿元，今日有10个行业主力资金净流入，非银金融行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨1.37%，全天净流入资金34.70亿元，其次是房地产行业，日涨 幅为3.19%，净流入资金为22.28亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有21个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金48.99亿元，其次 是汽车行业，净流出资金为28.12亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、国防军工、计算机等行业。 国防军工行业今日下跌0.41%，全天主力资金净流出27.01亿元，该行业所属的个股共139只，今日上涨 的有53只；下跌的有82只，跌停的有1只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有40 只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有13只，净流入资金居首的是高德红外，今日净流入资金1.04亿元， 紧随其后的是内蒙一机、中简科技，净流入资金分别为8 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen above 3500 points, with total trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The real estate sector has shown the highest growth among the primary industries [1] - Recent CPI and PPI data indicate low inflation levels, highlighting insufficient demand as a core issue, while core CPI excluding energy and food is at a relatively high level [1] Economic Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that China's economic increment during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, with a total economic volume projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [2] - Domestic consumption has contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, emphasizing the importance of internal demand as a core engine for high-quality growth [2] Trade and Tariff Implications - The recent tariff increases announced by former President Trump may have limited direct impact on the U.S. economy but could indirectly affect inflation and growth through supply chain transmission and market sentiment [3] - The tariffs, effective from August 1, will impose rates ranging from 20% to 50% on various countries, potentially leading to price fluctuations in agricultural and energy sectors [3] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a consensus to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, with a focus on the ongoing economic expansion and low unemployment [3] - There remains significant uncertainty regarding the potential impact of tariff policies on inflation, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming U.S. CPI data [3] Stock Market Performance - On July 10, the A-share market saw an increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3509.68 points, up 0.48% [4] - The real estate, oil and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the gains, while the automotive and media sectors experienced declines [4] Capital Flow - The market turnover was recorded at 15,153.01 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 18,687.97 billion yuan, indicating increased investor activity [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]

证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.34%，A股成交量550.19亿股，成交金额6489.82亿 元，比上一个交易日减少8.50%。个股方面，2399只个股上涨，其中涨停42只，2749只个股下跌，其中 跌停4只。从申万行业来看，房地产、银行、石油石化等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为1.24%、1.19%、 0.97%；国防军工、纺织服饰、汽车等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.24%、0.78%、0.78%。（数据宝） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 房地产 | 1.24 | 88.46 | 37.10 | 渝开发 | 9.94 | | 银行 | 1.19 | 153.25 | 17.78 | 民生银行 | 4.93 | | 石油石化 | 0.97 | 48.87 | 16.65 | *ST新潮 | 5.08 | | 医药生物 | 0.91 | 564.34 | 12.52 | 仟源医药 | 19.98 | | 非银金融 | 0.88 | 303.3 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market shows signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,500 points, attracting attention to foreign capital movements, particularly northbound funds [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, northbound funds held a total of 2,907 A-shares, with a total shareholding of 1,232.08 billion shares, an increase of 41.19 billion shares from the previous quarter and 7.22 billion shares from the end of 2024 [2] - The total market value of northbound funds reached 2.289 trillion yuan, an increase of 537 billion yuan from the previous quarter and 871 billion yuan from the end of 2024, indicating a significant increase in investment in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - The industry with the largest increase in shareholding by northbound funds in Q2 2025 was enterprise services, with a growth of 38%, followed by telecommunications services at 27% and national defense at 26% [2] - Conversely, the industries with the largest decrease in shareholding were hardware equipment, down 15%, and home appliances and textiles, both down 13% [2] Group 3 - The stocks with the highest market value held by northbound funds as of June 2025 included CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and others, with CATL and Kweichow Moutai each exceeding 100 billion yuan in market value [3] - The three companies with the most significant changes in market value held by northbound funds were CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and Dongpeng Beverage, all of which have recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][4] Group 4 - The decline in AH share premiums indicates a narrowing price gap between A-shares and H-shares, enhancing market efficiency and providing a fairer investment environment [5][7] - The decrease in AH share premiums may influence the allocation of northbound funds between A-shares and H-shares, shifting focus towards the fundamentals and industry outlook rather than short-term price differences [7][8]

证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 10 日 星期四 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，沪指 3500 点得而复失 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3493.05 | -0.13% | -4.43 | | | 深证成指 | 10581.80 | -0.06% | -6.60 | | | 沪深 300 | 3991.40 | -0.18% | -7.05 | | | 创业板 | 2184.67 | 0.16% | 3.60 | | | 科创 50 | 983.11 | -0.89% | -8.84 | | | 北证 50 | 1410.36 | -0.75% | -10.63 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 | 1.35% ...

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a differentiated pattern amidst internal and external disturbances, with the total A-share index rising by 5.83% [2][3]. - Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed, with the North Securities 50 index increasing by 39.45% and the Micro Index by 36.41% [2]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector led the industry gains with an 18.12% increase, followed by banking at 13.10% and national defense and military industry at 12.99% [5]. - The AI industry chain experienced a resonance due to breakthroughs in DeepSeek technology, with high-dividend sectors like banking and technology growth sectors forming the core market lines [5]. Future Outlook - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on three main lines: technology self-sufficiency, new consumption, and supply-side clearing [8][20]. - The technology self-sufficiency line is driven by external pressures, such as tariffs and technology blockades, which are pushing domestic industries to upgrade [8]. - The new consumption line is characterized by the rise of Generation Z, shifting consumer focus from product price to experience [13][16]. - Supply-side clearing is seen as crucial for economic recovery, with sectors like industrial metals, lithium batteries, and innovative pharmaceuticals expected to benefit [20]. Key Trends - In the AI and semiconductor sectors, the commercial application of AI models is driving demand for computing power, benefiting domestic GPU and server supply chains [12]. - The new energy sector is witnessing rapid advancements in technologies like TOPCon batteries and 800V electric drive systems, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [12]. - Generation Z's consumption behavior is marked by a focus on emotional value, with trends such as experiential services and the rise of domestic brands gaining traction [18].

Core Viewpoint - The recently passed "Big Beautiful" bill is significantly transforming the American business landscape, redefining the winners and losers among various industries [1] Private Equity and Fossil Fuels - The private equity industry, valued at $13 trillion, is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the bill, retaining the "carried interest" tax loophole [2][3] - This loophole allows traders to pay performance profit taxes at a lower long-term capital gains tax rate, saving the industry billions annually [3] - The bill also extends fixed debt interest tax deductions and depreciation benefits, lowering tax rates for many private equity-backed companies [4] Retail Industry - The bill reduces federal food assistance, with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) expected to see a $9 billion cut next year, impacting grocery spending [5][6] - Companies like Conagra, Kellogg, and Kraft Heinz may face sales pressure due to their reliance on SNAP user spending [6] - The bill eliminates tariff exemptions for imported goods valued under $800, benefiting brick-and-mortar retailers while pressuring small businesses [6] Healthcare Industry - The healthcare sector avoided severe cuts, with Medicaid funding reductions being less than anticipated [7][8] - For-profit hospital chains like Tenet Healthcare and HCA Healthcare saw stock price increases, although predictions indicate that 11.8 million Americans may lose health insurance by 2034 [8] - Smaller hospitals, heavily reliant on Medicaid, may struggle more than larger institutions [9] Energy Sector - The energy industry is experiencing a split impact, with coal unexpectedly benefiting from tax credits for metallurgical coal production [10] - Zero-carbon energy sources like geothermal and nuclear retain substantial tax credits, while many solar and wind projects will lose investment and production tax credits [10] - The cancellation of electric vehicle tax incentives may lead to contractor bankruptcies, as the total credits for 2023 amount to $8.4 billion [10] Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly companies like Tesla, faces significant challenges due to the loss of electric vehicle tax incentives and new AI regulations [11] - Private aerospace companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin benefit from provisions allowing municipal bond financing for spaceports [11] Defense Industry - The defense sector is a major winner, with an additional $150 billion in budget increases, pushing total defense spending towards $1 trillion [12][13] - Traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and emerging tech firms like Anduril and Palantir are expected to benefit from increased funding for missile defense and naval capabilities [13] Higher Education - The bill imposes an 8% tax on investment income for wealthy universities, affecting only 16 institutions, with Harvard expected to lose $267 million annually [14] - Cuts to student loans and support may indirectly raise university costs, straining state funding for public universities [14]

策略+军工 如何看待当前时点军工投资机会？20250708 摘要 军工板块受益于内外部需求双重驱动，海外市场利润率提升，地缘政治 紧张及政策支持等多重因素，估值有望提升，是当前值得看多的板块之 一。 中国武器出口潜力巨大，可能放宽限制，从单兵装备到系统化解决方案， 有望实现数量级增长，并显著提升利润率，军贸打开全球局面，重点发 展船舶、坦克、导弹、飞机等领域。 多重催化剂推动军工板块发展，包括地缘政治紧张、各国增加军事预算、 中国顶层设计支持（如低空经济、深海探索、可控核聚变）以及国内反 腐接近尾声带来的需求释放。 今年是十四五规划最后一年，各军兵种正加速完成任务，预计中报业绩 将超预期，部分任务量可能延至明年，若十五五订单超预期，将进一步 支撑业绩增长。 军工行业存在高低切换机会，关注中航西飞、中直股份等低位标的，水 下作战领域结合深海科技是未来重点，关注中国海防，以及无人智能装 备领域，如东兵、一机集团。 Q&A 当前时点如何看待军工板块的投资机会？ 我们坚定看好当前时点的军工板块。首先，从年度和季度的基本面来看，军工 行业业绩预期反转明显，具备较强的成长动量。短期内，军工板块在交易面上 也表现出色，成长 ...