化工日报 | 2026-02-11 原料价格坚挺，成本端支撑仍强 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16335元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨；NR主力合约13230元/吨，较前一日变动+80 元/吨；BR主力合约12860元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16150元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15280元/吨，较前一 日变动+80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1965美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1905 美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12600元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2026年1月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约10.1万辆，同比增长约40%。 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 0.4 美元至 63.96 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.62%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.24 美元至 68.8 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.35%。SC2604 以 473.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 1 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅 0.21%。EIA 表示，随着美国扩大对委内瑞拉相关交易的许 | | | | 可，预计到 2026 年中期，这个南美国家的石油产量将恢复到美国 | | | | 12 月对该国实施海上封锁之前的水平。EIA 发布最新短期能源展 | | | 原油 | 望报告，上调今明两年美国石油产量预测，而美国石油需求预测 | 震荡 | | | 维持不变。在 EIA 预测的到 2027 年底的这段时期内，全球石油产 | | | | 量的增长速度预计将超过需求，从而增加库存并对价格造成压力。 | | | | API 数据显示，上周美国 API 原油库存增加 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月10日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节长假节前一周，资金调仓带动市场宽幅震荡，金 属板块多头资金集中调仓，流动性及杠杆效应引发商品系统性调整 ，橡胶期价在前高附近剧烈震荡，上周海外美国1月挑战者企业裁 员人数10.8万，为自2009年以来最高的年初数据；美国12月职位空 缺录得654.2万人，为2020年9月以来新低；数据端开始显示出经济 的弱势，市场的降息预期有所回升。上海全乳胶周均价16030元/ 吨，周环比-60；青岛市场20号泰标周均价1950美元/吨，周环比- 6；青岛市场20号泰混周均价15168元/吨，周 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. There is still a probability of short - term fluctuations due to overseas geopolitics. The previous short positions should be taken profit, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5]. - For urea, the import window has been opened due to the current situation of internal and external price differences, and combined with the expected production start - up recovery at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so short positions are recommended [8]. - For rubber, near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce the risk level and focus on risk prevention. Short - term trading according to the disk, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations are suggested. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended not to hold single - side positions, and hedge by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral to low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The export tax rebate cancellation has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the follow - up changes in production capacity and start - up should be concerned [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene production starts to rebound from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene continues to accumulate. It is recommended to gradually take profit as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. In the off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films may reach the peak, and the overall start - up rate fluctuates downward [23]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the pressure is relieved. The downstream start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to production investment mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [26]. - For PX, the PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is limited by the off - season and the load gradually decreases. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The PTA processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, look for opportunities to go long at low levels [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large due to the off - season of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high start - up. The current valuation is moderately low year - on - year. There is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 10.10 yuan/barrel, a 2.17% increase, at 476.10 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.15% increase, at 2845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a 1.63% increase, at 3306.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.95 million barrels to 97.01 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.93 million barrels to 98.87 million barrels, a 2.00% increase; the total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.89 million barrels to 195.88 million barrels, a 2.02% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 2 yuan/ton, Lunan by 20 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2241 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 6 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated and consolidated following the commodity market. The bulls believed in an increase due to macro - bullish expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears thought the market would decline due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than last week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than last week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 tons, a 0.9 - ton increase and a 0.7% increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 15200 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10100 (0) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12200 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4971 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 588 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease. The factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+2.1) [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5995 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene active contract closed at 6034 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the styrene active contract closed at 7473 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase; the basis was 227 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan decrease; the BZN spread was 166.12 yuan/ton, a 1.75 - yuan increase; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 134.05 yuan/ton, a 79.75 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 tons, a 0.80 - ton increase. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6775 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, an 83 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 87 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase [24][25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 28 yuan to 7220 yuan, PX CFR increased by 9 US dollars to 909 US dollars. The basis was - 31 yuan (+47), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing the load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to China, a 2.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December, the inventory was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 302 US dollars (+7), South Korea's PX - MX was 139 US dollars (- 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 91 US dollars (- 12) [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 38 yuan to 5230 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan to 5140 yuan. The basis was - 75 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan (+20). The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 tons, a 3.3 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 18 yuan to 366 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 26 yuan to 436 yuan [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 3733 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 12 yuan to 3623 yuan. The basis was - 110 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, among which the syngas - based production was 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based load was 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. In terms of syngas - based devices, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short - term, Guanghui was shut down and the restart was to be determined, and Sinochem had a load reduction due to an accident. In terms of petrochemical, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were restarting. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian was shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 was restarting. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure was 1.5 tons on February 9. The port inventory was 93.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 1252 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 24 yuan. The cost - side ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 580 yuan [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the low - production period, with a shrinking total supply [2]. - Recently, both bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have seen inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With pre - holiday concentrated arrivals of overseas shipments, the total inbound volume continues to increase, while downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - Spring Festival stockpiling. Market purchases are mainly for刚需, and the outbound volume from warehouses continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate as downstream enterprises gradually go on holiday [2]. - Last week, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and some enterprises entered the holiday state, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the short - term production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will further decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,600, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,335 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 90; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 151,944 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,674; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 48,541 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 128 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,635, with a month - on - month increase of 927; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,125, with a month - on - month decrease of 318. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 112,570 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,803 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,045 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65 [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,557 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 126; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 327 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46 [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 62.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.72; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 58.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74 [2]. - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 60 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1 [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.54 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 17.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.85, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2]. - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and an increase rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, with an increase rate of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, with an increase rate of 2.78% [2]. - As of February 4, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2].

化工日报 | 2026-02-10 青岛港口库存环比回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16245元/吨，较前一日变动+165元/吨；NR主力合约13150元/吨，较前一日变动+100 元/吨；BR主力合约12810元/吨，较前一日变动+20元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16100元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15200元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1955美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1895美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价12600元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2026年1月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约10.1万辆，同比增长约40%。 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月09日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节长假节前一周，金属板块多头资金集中调仓，流 动性及杠杆效应引发商品系统性调整，橡胶期价在前高附近剧烈震 荡，上周海外美国1月挑战者企业裁员人数10.8万，为自2009年以 来最高的年初数据；美国12月职位空缺录得654.2万人，为2020年 9月以来新低；数据端开始显示出经济的弱势，市场的降息预期有 所回升。上海全乳胶周均价16030元/吨，周环比-60；青岛市场20 号泰标周均价1950美元/吨，周环比-6；青岛市场20号泰混周均价 15168元/吨，周环比-52/。海外产区进入 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main - producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production to the low - production period, with the total supply shrinking. Recently, both the bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have shown inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises' procurement is mainly for basic needs, and the warehouse outbound volume continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined last week, and it is expected to further decrease in the short term. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,500, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,870 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,245 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,095 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai rubber main contract are 150,270 hands, up 4,240 hands; the positions of the 20 - number rubber main contract are 48,669 hands, down 1,481 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 36,562 hands, down 423 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 8,807 hands, up 387 hands. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 112,570 tons, up 500 tons; the 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts are 51,004 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,935 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The Shanghai rubber basis is - 80 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,497 yuan/ton, down 131 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 447 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 61.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.86 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 59.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, up 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, up 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.53%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.86%, down 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.56%, up 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.55%, up 0.12 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025 and a significant increase of about 39% year - on - year compared with 72,200 vehicles in the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, up 15,100 tons month - on - month, an increase of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, an increase of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, an increase of 2.78%. As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points month - on - month and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points month - on - month and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year [2].