1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

2012 31 2025-09-15 F3071622 Z0014205 F03133773 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 : | 1 | 0.6 | 83 | ; | 2 | 20 | 83.4% | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -0.8% | -1.4% | 92.9% | -2.4% | 81.1% | -2.0% | 76.0% | -4.3% | 87.7% | +0.8% | 78.7% | +0.1% | 88.5% | | 1 | 2 | 87.77% | +0.67% | | | | | | | | | | | 3 | 65.76% | +0.13% | 3 | 2025 | 6 | 49.27% | | | | | | | | 1 | 2 | 20 | 35.68 | ( | ) | 7.99% | | | | | | | | 15.48% | 19.40% | 1.58% | | | | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Methanol Industry - The methanol market has a relatively healthy inventory pattern due to high supply in the inland and continuous external procurement by some olefin plants, which supports prices. However, demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, and the overall valuation is neutral. The market is currently swaying between high inventory and weak basis in reality and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices oscillated, with the main trading logic being the continuous game between the supply - tightening expectation caused by geopolitical risks and concerns about weak macro - demand and supply surplus. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a range - bound pattern in the tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and a strategy of expanding spreads for option trading [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations. For PVC, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [12]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly, mainly due to the phase mismatch between the continuous increase in supply and weak domestic demand. Although export orders support some enterprises, the export's ability to digest inventory is limited. The market sentiment is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [18]. Polyolefin Industry - The market shows a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", and the core contradiction is not obvious. For PP, the PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, and the basis is still weak. For PE, the current maintenance is relatively high, and the short - term supply pressure is small, but attention should be paid to the supply rhythm. Attention should also be paid to downstream restocking before the Double - Festival [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene. The weekly supply - demand of styrene has improved, and there is an expectation of further improvement in the future. The low price of styrene has support, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [43]. Polyester Industry - For PX, the supply is increasing to a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has some support, but the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. However, the cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fee repair driving force are limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. For bottle - chips, the supply increases slightly, and the demand may decline, and the processing fee space is limited [47]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2379, down 0.34%; MA2509 closed at 2230, up 0.77%. The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59% [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.97%, and the overseas upstream operating rate decreased by 2.52%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37%, while the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 8.92% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: Brent closed at 66.99, up 0.93%; WTI closed at 62.69, up 0.51%. The Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.50% [7]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.31%, and NYM ULSD increased by 0.35%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread increased by 3.13%, and the ULSD M1 - M3 spread increased by 104.46% [7]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: The prices of Shandong 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC was 4680, unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PVC operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the caustic soda operating rate data was unavailable. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed varying degrees of increase [12]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The 01 contract of urea futures closed at 1671, up 0.12%. The 05 contract remained unchanged, and the 09 contract decreased by 1.12% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output increased by 0.11%, and the weekly output increased by 1.58%. The plant - level inventory increased by 3.44%, and the port inventory decreased by 11.52% [17]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7169, down 0.55%; PP2601 closed at 6913, down 0.37%. The basis of North China LL decreased by 12.50%, and the basis of East China PP increased by 5.26% [21]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 1.3% [21]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene increased by 1.2% [43]. - **Styrene Price and Spread**: The East China spot price of styrene decreased by 1.0%, and the EB2510 futures price decreased by 0.9%. The EB - BZ spot spread decreased by 2.1% [43]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.9%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.5%. The price of CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 0.8%, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 0.7% [47]. - **Downstream Product Price and Cash Flow**: The price of POY150/48 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 1.9%. The price of FDY150/96 remained unchanged, and the cash flow decreased by 27.2% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda market showed a range-bound oscillation during the week, with insufficient upward and downward drivers [3][7]. - There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside potential may also be significant. Near-term contracts are supported by peak-season expectations and procurement sentiment, with strong spot prices. The market activities related to the chemical industry also provide strong incentives. In the short term, the market may run in line with the spot market. However, the 01 contract is in a seasonal off - peak period, and the spot price may decline again after the peak season fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Prices - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, mainly including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price tracking needs to consider regional characteristics. The low - concentration caustic soda market price remained stable week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda was 886 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2768.75 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week and 886 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2763.75 yuan/dry ton) at the end of the week. Some local prices in Shandong decreased, while other areas remained stable [15]. - The report also provides historical price data of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, with a daily update frequency [19][21][28]. 3.2 Price Spreads 3.2.1 Model Spreads - The report shows the price spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions like Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, with daily updates [30]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - It presents the regional price spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions, such as the spreads between Jiangsu and Shandong, Zhejiang and Shandong, etc., with a daily update frequency [30][34][36]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. The production this week is expected to be 831,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 84.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%. Maintenance this week was mainly concentrated in North China, Central China, and Northwest China, with a slight increase in the impact compared to last week. Some enterprises in the Northwest and North China regions resumed production or increased their loads, leading to an increase in output [37]. - The report also provides historical data on the weekly operating rate and production of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, with a weekly update frequency [38][42]. - It lists the maintenance situations of chlor - alkali plants, including long - term shutdown capacities, current maintenance, and planned future maintenance. The total impact on the converted - to - 100% production this week is expected to be 25,830 tons [45]. - The operating status of flake caustic soda plants is also detailed, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned operations of various manufacturers [49]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The supply of alumina increased slightly this week. As of September 11, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [52]. 3.4.2 Viscose Staple Fiber - The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 87.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.67%. Some viscose plants in Xinjiang restarted operations [52]. 3.4.3 Dyeing Industry - As of September 11, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The production rhythm of dyeing factories is stable, with an increase in the storage of grey fabrics, but overall in small to medium - sized batches. The market is divided in terms of orders, with stable domestic orders for autumn and winter fabrics and no obvious improvement in export orders [52]. 3.5 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories was 242,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%. The downstream procurement demand was good this week, and the alkali plants had smooth sales, resulting in a decline in inventory. The inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories was 24,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.37%. The market trading atmosphere remained stable, enterprises mainly delivered pre - sold orders, and some major manufacturers reduced flake caustic soda production, leading to a decrease in inventory [68]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. Each ton of caustic soda production requires about 2.15 tons of raw salt, accounting for about 12 - 18% of the total cost, and about 2300 - 2400 kWh of electricity, accounting for about 60% of the total cost [72]. - In terms of the cost side, the domestic industrial salt market was in a consolidation stage this week. The price of well - mine salt was narrowly fluctuating, and the price of sea salt remained stable. The price of thermal coal was weakly stable. The supply of coal was relatively stable, and the demand was weak, with limited market trading activity [72]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side increased compared to last week, with a slight weakening of the cost side and strong prices in the liquid caustic soda market [73]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provides data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also includes data on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, etc. [82][83][87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: This week, the caustic soda futures market continued to weaken. After the previous downstream concentrated stockpiling led to a surge in the futures market, the market faced downward pressure after the bullish trading. Next week, there are maintenance plans in the Northwest and Northeast regions, which are expected to cause a decline in the operating rate. The demand from the main alumina enterprises is good, but the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation, and its price has been showing a downward trend recently. In the short - term, it may continue to operate weakly. Most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - alumina end has entered the peak season with improved demand, but it has limited support for the caustic soda price. Overall, there is a significant inventory build - up in the Shandong region, but the main buyers have a good willingness to purchase, so the spot price may stabilize. Therefore, the decline space of the futures price may be limited. Attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of alumina plants and device fluctuations [2]. - **PVC**: This week, the PVC futures market showed signs of stabilizing and stopping the decline, with the main 01 contract fluctuating within a narrow range. Next week, there are many maintenance enterprises, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. Therefore, the overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. On the cost side, the tight supply of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend. The ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Period and Spot**: The caustic soda futures price has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - environment changes, supply - demand expectations, and cost fluctuations. For example, the market worried about the weakening of the marginal supply after the return of supply, and the downstream demand was stable. The far - month supply - demand expectations were poor, and the futures price was looking for a bottom due to factors such as cost reduction, new caustic soda production capacity release, and insufficient medium - term alumina support [5]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The profit of the caustic soda industry is affected by factors such as raw material prices (including well - mine salt, liquid chlorine, etc.) and electricity prices. The sharp decline in the Shandong liquid chlorine price has impacted the enterprise profit, and the industry operating rate has further declined while the demand remains stable [5]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of this Thursday, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 86.73%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points from last week. The Shandong operating rate was 87.35%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. In terms of inventory, compared with September 3rd, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in the expanded sample enterprises in East China increased by 1.09%, and the inventory in Shandong increased by 16.96% [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: There are many caustic soda device maintenance situations in different regions. For example, Inner Mongolia Zhonggu Mining in the Northwest has been shut down since July 22, 2023, and is expected to resume on October 15; Inner Mongolia Yili in the Northwest has been shut down since May 5, 2024, and the restart time is undetermined [25]. - **Alumina Impact on Caustic Soda**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. It is estimated that the annual alumina output in 2025 will be more than 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects are expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [29]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: In July, the caustic soda export volume reached a high level, but the estimated export profit has weakened compared with the previous period [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Period and Spot**: The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, macro - environment, and cost. For example, the lack of positive drivers in supply - demand, combined with a poor commodity atmosphere, has led to a continuous decline in the futures price [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The profit of the PVC industry has weakened month - on - month. The profit of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in East China has been affected by factors such as raw material prices and market supply - demand [67]. - **PVC Supply**: This week, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry has increased, and the maintenance loss this week has decreased month - on - month. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.39%, a 3.21 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 80.29%, a 2.64 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 77.2%, a 4.61 - percentage - point increase month - on - month [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: There are many PVC device maintenance and shutdown situations in different regions. For example, Julong Chemical in North China has shut down for maintenance since September 20, 2024, and the restart time is undetermined; Ningbo Zhenyang in East China is planned to start operation around September 20 after a temporary shutdown on August 15 [85]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two main downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure. In addition to demand issues, they also face industry competition, so the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate industry still has a negative impact on PVC demand. According to Xuande sample data, the downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels, so the PVC downstream is expected to have no positive drivers [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: The PVC inventory continues to rise, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared with the same period [101]. - **PVC Outer Market and Export**: In July 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,500 tons, with an average import price of 712 US dollars per ton. The import volume increased by 2.10% month - on - month and 46.98% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to July increased by 6.03% year - on - year. In July 2025, the PVC export volume was 330,600 tons, with an average export price of 606 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 26.17% month - on - month and 112.82% year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to July increased by 56.91% year - on - year. The domestic trade price has adjusted, and the export windows to Southeast Asia and India have opened, with relatively good weekly export transactions [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for caustic soda is short - term weak [5][6] - The investment rating for PVC is low - level oscillation [9][10] Report's Core View - Caustic soda currently lacks upward drivers, with the main obstacles being exports and alumina. The market is short - term weak as the futures market is trading the pressure on spot prices in Shandong, alumina pre - production stockpiling hasn't started, and exports haven't improved [6] - PVC is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and exports may face policy disturbances with a potential slowdown in growth. The market trend is under pressure, and it will experience low - level oscillation [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 83.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. There were production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and South China, while in North China, there were both production cuts and capacity increases [5] - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory are compressing profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits. Non - aluminum demand is rising seasonally. Export orders are poor recently, and the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is weak [5][6] - Viewpoint: Caustic soda lacks upward drivers, and the futures market is trading the price cuts of spot goods in Shandong. It is short - term weak [6] PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. There are still many new capacities to be put into production, especially from August to September, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons [10] - Demand: The competition in the PVC export market has intensified in 2025. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [10] - Viewpoint: PVC will experience low - level oscillation, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure level of 5000, lower support levels of 4850 and 4700 [10] 2. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,656 yuan/ton [15] - Spread: The 01 basis of caustic soda has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 spread has weakened. The export market still has support, but recent export orders are poor. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the high spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda. The spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [19][20][35] 3. Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production and inventory are both declining, and the structure is relatively strong. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 83.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [41] - Inventory: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China is 356,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 7.99% and a year - on - year increase of 15.48% [43] - Production Capacity: There are still many new caustic soda production capacities to be put into production in 2025, but overall production may fall short of expectations. The actual capacity expansion will be weaker than expected, with a potential capacity increase of about 2% [47][50] - Profit: Liquid chlorine is weak, leading to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The cost of marginal production facilities in Shandong is calculated to be 2,277 yuan/ton [52][54] 4. Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: Alumina production is at a high level, inventory is rising, and profits are declining. Attention should be paid to the alumina production capacity scheduled to be put into operation at the end of this year and the pre - production tank - filling demand [79][89] - Pulp Industry: The pulp industry is continuing to expand production capacity, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season [91] - Other Industries: The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries are rising, and short - term demand is increasing month - on - month. The operating rates of the water treatment and ternary precursor industries are stable [103][105][107] 5. PVC Price and Spread - Basis and Spread: The PVC basis is oscillating, and the 1 - 5 spread is oscillating weakly [114] 6. PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC is increasing month - on - month and is still relatively high year - on - year. There are still seasonal maintenance plans from September to October in 2025. There are many new PVC production capacities to be put into production, with a total of 2.2 million tons expected to be put into operation in 2025 [120][122][123] - Profit: The integrated production facilities in Northwest China have decent profits. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda [125] - Inventory: PVC production enterprises and the social inventory are both increasing [129] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered. The overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries is increasing month - on - month. PVC export expectations are weakening, and warehouse receipts are continuously increasing [134][140][146]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market has supply and demand imbalances, with price upward momentum limited [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and downstream profitability, showing a weak performance [3] - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with price drivers mainly from raw materials and demand showing a mixed picture [4] - The coal - chemical market is expected to stabilize or continue weakly depending on the product, influenced by factors like inventory and demand [5] - The chlor - alkali market has supply - demand issues, with PVC and caustic soda showing different price trends [6] - The soda ash - glass market has high inventories and supply pressure, with prices expected to be in a certain pattern [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day average, with limited upward momentum due to supply increase and weakening downstream acceptance [2] - Polyolefin futures decline, with polyethylene having low supply pressure but weak demand, and polypropylene facing supply pressure and slow demand recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are weak due to factors like oil price decline, downstream poor profitability, and import pressure, but may improve in Q3 [3] - Styrene futures decline, with supply - demand support insufficient due to high inventory and weak new orders [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by oil prices, with PTA price driven by raw materials, and downstream demand showing a positive trend but with some constraints [4] - Ethylene glycol is pressured in the far - month due to new device news, with near - month and spot being strong [4] - Short fiber is expected to be positive in the near - month, with price following cost, and bottle chip has limited processing - margin repair space [4] Coal - Chemical - Methanol prices are weak with high port inventory, but may stabilize with expected increase in MTO device operation and downstream stocking [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with supply - demand remaining loose and the market expected to continue weakly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - Caustic soda prices may have a wide - range oscillation pattern due to factors like demand support and supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate narrowly, with high inventory and supply pressure, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds [7] - Glass prices may have a wide - range oscillation due to factors like inventory decline and potential macro - level positives [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant as domestic PVC device overhauls decrease and new production devices increase. Downstream demand remains weak, with low - level开工 of downstream products and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies. Social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply from chlor - alkali enterprises is at a relatively high level. The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (+31), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (- 11), and the South China basis is - 128 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and the PVC export profit is 9.7 dollars/ton (- 5.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+0.4), the social inventory is 53.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2590 yuan/ton (+14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 129 yuan/ton (- 14) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 532.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (- 3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 83.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The number of domestic PVC device overhauls continues to decrease, and new production devices are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product开工 remains low, with enterprises purchasing only for rigid - demand. The raw material restocking willingness during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs attention. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PVC continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The futures warehouse receipts are increasing, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly increasing and at a high level in the same period [3]. - Demand: The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - Cost and profit: The electricity price in Shandong has a slight increase in September, and there is some resistance from downstream after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will continue to increase, and cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment - Inter - delivery: Long V01 and short V05 to capture price fluctuations - Inter - variety: No strategy Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, exports are expected to decline in Q4, inventory is accumulating, and there is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits. The short - term trend is macro - led, and policy progress needs attention [3]. - Caustic soda spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Supply increases, demand from major downstream industries varies, and cost support remains. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment rhythms and Guangxi alumina production start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,857 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is - 207 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,650 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (-22), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (-43), and the PVC export profit is 14.7 dollars/ton (+1.7) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 31.6 million tons (+0.4), social inventory is 53.3 million tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall operation rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 million tons (-2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,576 yuan/ton (+7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 143 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 542.53 yuan/ton (-70.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 million tons (+0.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 84.38% (-1.20%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Domestic PVC plant overhauls continue to decrease, and supply is expected to increase. With new production capacity coming on - stream, supply remains abundant [3]. - Demand: Downstream product operation rates remain low, with enterprises making rigid purchases. Attention should be paid to downstream raw material replenishment willingness during the peak season. Export orders and deliveries decline, and Q4 export expectations weaken due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory level is high. Futures warehouse receipts are rising, and hedging pressure suppresses prices [3]. - Profit: There is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits, and supply - demand remains weak. "Anti - involution" affects the market, and the short - term market is macro - led [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The operation rate of chlor - alkali enterprises increases slightly and is at a high level [3]. - Demand: The purchase price of Shandong's main downstream alumina factories is stable, and delivery volume is rising. Attention should be paid to purchase prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream operation rates increase, with rigid purchases [3]. - Cost: Shandong's electricity price increases slightly in September, and downstream resistance emerges after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will increase, and cost support remains [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profits are at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - delivery: Recommend gradually building long positions in the positive spread when V01 - 05 is below - 300 [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4].