投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格企稳，盘面价格震荡下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-02-09 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳，盘面价格震荡下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.3万吨至85万吨;（2）烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为87.4%，较上周环比-0.3%。 | | | | 分区域来看，周内华北、华中、华东氯碱负荷均有适当下降；西南四川部分负荷提升带动本地开工有所上移，其中山东周度产能利用率91.1%，环比-0.4%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有所下滑，非铝需求疲软。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率88.43%，较上周持平。本周国内粘胶装置平稳运行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector experienced a significant rally on February 6, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 3.45% before closing up 2.37% despite market conditions [1][7]. Market Performance - The chemical ETF opened lower but quickly rebounded, maintaining high levels before a slight pullback at the close [1][7]. - Key stocks in the lithium battery, phosphate chemical, and petrochemical sectors saw substantial gains, with Enjie Technology hitting the daily limit, and other stocks like Hongda shares, Zhejiang Longsheng, and Tianci Materials rising over 6% [1][7]. Capital Inflow - The basic chemical sector attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 19.918 billion yuan, the highest among 30 sectors tracked by Citic [3][9]. - This capital influx indicates strong investor interest and confidence in the sector's growth potential [3][9]. Industry Trends - The lithium battery sector is entering a growth phase characterized by rising prices and demand for key chemical materials such as lithium iron phosphate and hexafluorophosphate [3][9]. - Analysts suggest that policy directions are optimizing supply-side dynamics, enhancing the competitive advantages of leading companies in the chemical industry [3][9]. Future Outlook - Zhongyuan Securities anticipates that ongoing regulatory measures will strengthen supply-side constraints, benefiting certain sub-industries like chlorine-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament in February [3][9]. - Guojin Securities remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the chemical sector, recommending a focus on leading companies and products experiencing price increases [3][9]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to consider the chemical ETF (516020) for efficient exposure to the sector, as it tracks the CSI sub-industry index covering various themes including AI computing and new energy [3][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment provides some support to the spot market. The market has an expected increase in long - term costs due to the mercury - free transformation, but the process is long. The outlook for PVC is relatively positive. - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking. The long - term demand for caustic soda is expected to decline, and the export orders remain sluggish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5052 yuan/ton (-103); the East China basis is -202 yuan/ton (+83); the South China basis is -182 yuan/ton (+33) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-20); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4870 yuan/ton (-70) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -659 yuan/ton (+86); the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82); the PVC export profit is -3.6 dollars/ton (-11.9) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 28.8 tons (-0.2); the social PVC inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 80.37% (+0.39%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 73.25% (+2.64%); the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1]. Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st. The "rush to export" led to a high level of export orders, but this week's signing volume decreased compared to the previous week while remaining relatively resilient. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rates of pipes, profiles, and films have decreased, with a further decline expected. Downstream buyers purchase on dips. The social inventory has slightly increased and is at a high level compared to the same period. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has slightly recovered with the increase in PVC price but is still at a low level compared to the same period. The calcium carbide price has increased, the semi - coke price is stable, the calcium carbide profit has improved, but the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [4] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1917 yuan/ton (-61); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -76 yuan/ton (+58) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 589 yuan/ton (-1); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 824 yuan/ton (-3); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 342.9 yuan/ton (+76.9); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -479.08 yuan/ton (-23.13); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+40.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89); the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05); the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - The current spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking. The overall supply - side operation rate is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream receiving sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina plants in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton; the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by alumina plants in Henan in February decreased by 50 to 2450 yuan/ton (converted to 100%); the purchase price of 50% caustic soda by alumina plants in Shanxi in February decreased by 50 to 2290 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The alumina industry's call for anti - involution has led to a decline in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina plants in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and some enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival at low prices. Export orders continue to be sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine decreased, downstream purchases improved, and the price increased again, weakening the cost support for chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression effect on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the downstream purchasing rhythm [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [5]

Group 1 - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai No. 20 mixed rubber price is 15,180 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous day [4][30] - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.281 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7% [4][30] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China is 853,000 tons, up 0.7%, while the total inventory of light rubber is 428,000 tons, up 0.8% [4][30] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is entering a low production season, indicating a shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels [5][31] - Despite expectations of moderate growth in global demand for tires and rubber products by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][31] - As market expectations cool down, RU and NR are expected to experience a correction [5][31] Group 3 - The PX industry in China has seen a load increase of 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply [6][32] - The demand side is affected by numerous maintenance plans for downstream PTA facilities in the first quarter, which could tighten supply [6][32] - The overall supply-demand pattern for PX is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter [6][32] Group 4 - The PTA industry load increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [8][34] - The polyester industry load decreased by 4.9 percentage points to 79.3%, indicating a potential acceleration in the decline of industry operations [8][34] - The overall demand is weakening, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [8][34] Group 5 - The domestic ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.8 percentage points to 76.2%, but the overall pressure remains due to sufficient domestic supply [10][36] - February may see the largest inventory pressure of the first half of the year for ethylene glycol [10][36] - The current price levels are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts [10][36] Group 6 - The bottle-grade polyester industry has been in a continuous de-inventory phase since the fourth quarter of last year, with significant reductions expected around the Spring Festival [12][41] - The supply side is expected to continue contracting, providing key support for inventory reduction and processing fees [12][41] - The market sentiment is weakening, with short-term price movements expected to remain stable [12][41] Group 7 - The glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with supply pressures easing and a decrease in production [17][43] - Recent data shows a slight increase in glass inventory, with production levels declining [17][43] - The overall market is expected to remain stable, with some support from production line maintenance [17][43] Group 8 - The PVC market is facing high supply pressure due to elevated operating rates, despite a significant slowdown in production growth expected in 2026 [22][48] - The short-term outlook remains cautious, with limited improvements in the fundamental market conditions [22][48] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations, with reference price ranges set for the main contracts [22][48]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot price. The expectation of mercury - free transformation in the future is likely to push up the PVC price. The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak, with the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreasing this week. The overall supply is at a high level, and the demand is generally weak [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5,155 yuan/ton (+84), the East China basis is - 285 yuan/ton (+6), and the South China basis is - 215 yuan/ton (-14) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,870 yuan/ton (+90), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,940 yuan/ton (+70) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 744 yuan/ton (+55), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 21 yuan/ton (+70), and the PVC export profit is 8.3 US dollars/ton (+20.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 29.0 tons (-1.8), the social inventory is 58.5 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 79.98% (-0.16%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 70.61% (-2.43%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.13% (-0.85%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 96.0 tons (+7.6) [1]. Market Analysis - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for PVC since April 1st has led to a high level of export orders. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, and there are no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rate of pipes, profiles remains flat, while that of films decreases. There is an expectation of a decline in operation rate during the Spring Festival. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level compared to the same period. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period. The calcium carbide price has increased, and the semi - coke price has slightly decreased. The calcium carbide profit has improved, but the semi - coke profit is still in a loss state. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level in the same period, and there is still pressure on the futures market for hedging. The supply - demand of PVC is weak, but the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot price. The mercury - free transformation mentioned by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has increased the long - term cost expectation of PVC, but the process is long. Overall, it is expected that the PVC price will be strong [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating and strengthening [4] - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1,978 yuan/ton (+9), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 134 yuan/ton (-9) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,010 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single caustic soda product in Shandong is 827 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 266.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 455.96 yuan/ton (+80.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 700.29 yuan/ton (+50.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 52.03 tons (+1.07), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.71 tons (-0.08), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.40% (-0.30%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 50.65% (-5.89%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2]. Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak. The low - price spot has driven some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased this week. The overall supply operation rate is at a high level, and there are no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average. The operation of alumina plants is relatively stable, but the unloading efficiency is average. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major alumina plants in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton; the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by alumina plants in Henan in February has been reduced by 50 to 2,450 yuan/ton (converted to 100%); the purchase price of 50% caustic soda by alumina plants in Shanxi in February has been reduced by 50 to 2,290 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The anti - involution of alumina has led to a decrease in the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market is pessimistic, resulting in insufficient purchasing power for caustic soda. Non - aluminum industries are gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and there is some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices. The export orders continue to be sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine has decreased, the downstream purchasing has improved, and the price has risen again, weakening the cost support of chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression effect on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the downstream purchasing rhythm [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating [5] - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dye chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil increasing by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Of the 319 products tracked, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), acetonitrile (32.86%), lithium carbonate (25.58%), and butadiene (25.31%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dyeing chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Among 319 tracked products, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), and acetonitrile (32.86%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot price. The expectation of the mercury - free transformation in the long - term may push the PVC price to run strongly. The supply - demand of caustic soda is also weak, with inventory accumulation in Shandong. The demand expectation from alumina is decreasing, and the export orders are sluggish [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5071 yuan/ton (+57), the East China basis is - 291 yuan/ton (-57), and the South China basis is - 201 yuan/ton (-37) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide method quotes 4780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method quotes 4870 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 744 yuan/ton (+55), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is 21 yuan/ton (+70), and the PVC export profit is - 12.0 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] - **PVC Inventory and Operation Rate**: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 29.0 tons (-1.8), the social inventory of PVC is 58.5 tons (+0.8), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method is 79.98% (-0.16%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method is 70.61% (-2.43%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 77.13% (-0.85%) [1] - **Downstream Order Situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 96.0 tons (+7.6) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1969 yuan/ton (-35), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 125 yuan/ton (+13) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 590 yuan/ton (-7), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1010 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 827 yuan/ton (-22). The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 266.0 yuan/ton (+58.1), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 535.96 yuan/ton (+28.13), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 650.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Operation Rate**: The factory inventory of liquid caustic soda is 52.03 tons (+1.07), the factory inventory of flake caustic soda is 2.71 tons (-0.08), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 87.40% (-0.30%) [2] - **Downstream Operation Rate of Caustic Soda**: The operation rate of alumina is 84.77% (-0.41%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 50.65% (-5.89%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush to export" led to high - level export orders. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak. The supply is abundant with no new maintenance enterprises this week. The downstream operation rate is flat for pipes and profiles and decreases for films, with a downward expectation during the Spring Festival. The social inventory accumulates slightly and is at a high level year - on - year. The upstream chlor - alkali production profit recovers slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide rises while the semi - coke price drops slightly. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still hedging pressure on the market. The supply - demand is weak, but the "rush to export" supports the spot price, and the long - term mercury - free transformation expectation may push up the price [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda continues to be weak. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and the inventory in Shandong accumulates. The overall supply - side operation rate is at a high level with no new maintenance enterprises in the future. The downstream purchasing sentiment is average. Alumina plants operate stably but have low unloading efficiency. Some alumina plants have reduced the purchase price of caustic soda. The long - term demand expectation from alumina is decreasing, and the commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi is delayed, leading to weak purchasing power. Non - aluminum industries enter the seasonal off - season, and some purchase for pre - Spring Festival stocking at low prices. The export orders are still sluggish. After the price of liquid chlorine drops, the downstream purchasing improves and the price rises again, weakening the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali. The caustic soda warehouse receipts suppress the market [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Oscillation - **Inter - period**: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - **Inter - product**: None [4] Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Oscillation - **Inter - period**: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - **Inter - product**: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral rating [3] Core View - In 2026, the supply-side production cut during the peak maintenance season may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor-alkali industry. Before the Spring Festival, the optimistic expectation is hard to be falsified, and the market continues to push up the valuation. However, if manufacturers do not cut production later, the market will still trade the delivery pressure and the excessively high forward premium [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 contract futures price of PVC is 5071, the East China spot price is 4800, the basis is -271, and the 5 - 9 month spread is -112 [1] Spot News - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the stocking demand in the domestic PVC spot market remains sluggish. The supply in the spot market is gradually increasing, and the pre - holiday inventory accumulation in the industry continues. Although the market has a unilateral increase under the influence of the upward push of the bulk chemical sector, it is difficult for the transaction center of the spot market to follow the increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In the short term, PVC is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production cut expectations. Fundamentally, the high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with basically no new maintenance. The futures contracts before the 03 contract still face the situation of high operation and weak demand. The expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure will also limit the market's space to trade low - valuation factors. At the same time, the rapid repair of the disk profit is not conducive to future production cuts and maintenance in the chlor - alkali industry. In addition, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is still relatively large [1]