Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining the export tax at $74 per ton and imposing an additional 10% export levy on crude palm oil [1] - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield for December 1-25, 2025, decreased by 8.49% month-on-month, with an oil extraction rate down by 0.12% and total production down by 9.12% compared to the same period last month [1] Palm Oil Export Data Update - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 were 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from 1,316,455 tons in the previous month. For December 1-25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, an increase of 1.6% from 1,041,935 tons [2] - AmSpec reported Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from 1,263,298 tons, while for December 1-25, exports were 1,017,897 tons, up 3% from 987,978 tons [2] - SGS projected Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-25 at 824,276 tons, an increase of 41.25% compared to the previous month [2] Daily Soybean Oil Spot Prices - Various regions in China reported soybean oil prices, with prices ranging from 8,170 to 8,610 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 10 to 20 yuan across different locations [4] Market Review - As of December 31, multiple institutions reported a month-on-month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports, putting pressure on palm oil futures. However, the potential for a reduction in export reference prices and taxes at the end of the month may incentivize delaying shipments to the next month for profit [5]

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and regard it as a rebound for now. Rapeseed oil has the largest increase in the near - term due to continuous destocking, concentrated cargo rights, and strong basis quotes. The estimated decline in domestic soybean crushing volume in Q1 will lead to a stronger basis for soybean oil, and the futures price has strong support at 7,800 - 8,000. For palm oil, the production decline in December has been confirmed, and the export volume from December 1 to 25 in Malaysia increased by 1.6% - 3.0% month - on - month. However, due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is hard to sustain, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 9,000 [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: Opened at 8,504, closed at 8,658, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 358,771 and an open interest of 388,850, a decrease of 119 [7] - P2601: Opened at 8,520, closed at 8,646, up 1.34% with a trading volume of 7,236 and an open interest of 6,178, a decrease of 4,169 [7] - Y2605: Opened at 7,802, closed at 7,878, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 209,400 and an open interest of 619,542, a decrease of 16,826 [7] - Y2601: Opened at 8,046, closed at 8,150, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 6,782 and an open interest of 7,670, a decrease of 5,927 [7] - O1605: Opened at 9,036, closed at 9,086, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 195,918 and an open interest of 199,248, an increase of 7,865 [7] - Ol601: Opened at 9,662, closed at 9,714, up 2.50% with a trading volume of 3,475 and an open interest of 7,412, a decrease of 1,062 [7] - **Basis Price**: - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: 05 + 800 in January - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis: Spot: Y05 + 510; February - March: Y2605 + 480; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300. Grade 3 soybean oil: 05 + 450, green soybean oil: 05 + 300 - Dongguan palm oil quotes: 18 - degree: 05 + 200 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree: 05 + 170 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree: 05 + 70 (Dongguan and Guangzhou warehouses), 28 - degree: 05 + 50 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Argentina Weather**: A US meteorologist said that Argentina may face drought in January, especially during La Nina. Reduced rainfall from late January to February may cut soybean production, depending on temperature forecasts. So far, the weather in Argentina has been good, and crop growth is better than normal, but concerns may intensify in January [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that from December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, with a 11.66% decline in Peninsular Malaysia, 2.12% in Sabah, 0.75% in Sarawak, and 1.73% in East Malaysia [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: - ITS data showed that from December 1 - 25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from November 1 - 25. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same period last month [9][10] - AmSpec data showed a 3.0% increase to 1,017,897 tons - SGS data showed a 41.0% increase to 824,276 tons [18] 3.3 Data Overview - **Domestic Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of the end of Week 52 in 2025, the total inventory was 6.847 million tons, a decrease of 0.875 million tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 5.818 million tons, a decrease of 0.887 million tons from the previous week [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Malay high-frequency data has improved, but there is still significant pressure in December. The market is expected to rebound in the short term and then continue to decline, awaiting the release of MPOB's December data. For rapeseed oil, influenced by traders taking delivery and obstacles in Australian imports, the price has risen. Short-term observation is recommended, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For soybean oil, wait for the USDA's January report and pay attention to the adjustment of the new US soybean yield per unit area [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Spot Price - 24-degree palm oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8650, 8590, and 8490 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to December 26, 2025. The palm oil main contract spot basis in South China for Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu was 5000, 4000, and 3000 (or 2000) respectively [1] - First-grade soybean oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8250, 8390, and 8400 respectively, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - Fourth-grade rapeseed oil: On December 29, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9880, 9930, and 10130 respectively, with an increase of 100 compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil main contract spot basis in North China for Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu was 2000, 1500, and 1000 respectively [1] Futures Data - The price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was -694 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 38 compared to December 26, 2025. The price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1222 on December 29, 2025, an increase of 12 compared to December 26, 2025 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 260 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 28264 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025. The rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3456 on December 29, 2025, with no change compared to December 26, 2025 [1] Industry News - On December 19, the Indonesian energy minister said that the country had launched a road test for B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, which is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy for B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2] - MPOC predicts that the crude palm oil price will fluctuate between 3800 and 4100 ringgit per ton in January next year, supported by seasonal low production and increased demand before the Lunar New Year and Ramadan [2] - According to MPOA, Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 20 increased by 2.4% compared to the same period last month; exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased by 16.4% compared to the same period last month [2] - ANEC predicts that Brazil's soybean exports in December will be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture announced that a private exporter reported the sale of 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - According to the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's palm oil imports in November increased by about 5% compared to October, reaching 632,341 tons. Soybean oil imports decreased by more than 18% compared to the previous month, reaching 370,661 tons. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 45% compared to the previous month, reaching 142,953 tons, the lowest in two years. India also imported 5,000 tons of rapeseed oil from the UAE. The decrease in soybean and sunflower oil imports led to a 13.3% decrease in India's total edible oil imports in November compared to the previous month, reaching a seven - month low of 1.15 million tons. In November, India imported a record - high 69,919 tons of soybean oil from China due to discounts offered by Chinese crushers due to oversupply [2]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that Malaysia's palm oil export volume for the period of December 1-25 is projected to be 824,276 tons, representing a significant increase of 41.25% compared to the 583,574 tons exported during the same period last month [1] Group 1 - The palm oil export volume for Malaysia is expected to reach 824,276 tons [1] - This figure marks an increase of 41.25% from the previous month's export volume of 583,574 tons [1]

| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | | 第二部分 | 2025 年油脂行情回顾 | 3 | | 一、2025 | 年 1-3 月---节后交易逻辑切换，油脂呈现震荡上涨 | 3 | | 二、2025 | 年 4-5 月---油脂分化加剧，棕榈油下跌明显 | 3 | | 三、2025 | 年 6-8 月中---地缘及政策端扰动，油脂整体大幅上涨 | 4 | | 四、2025 | 年 8 月中-至今---上涨驱动不足热情退却，油脂高位回落 | 4 | | 第三部分 | 2026 年供需展望 | 5 | | 一、棕榈油：明年马印棕榈油产量仍有增量，马棕库存高企或持续至明年 | Q1 | 5 | | 二、印度明年预计增加棕榈油进口，中国需求或保持平稳 | | 11 | | 三、巴西 | B16 仍存不确定性，美国生柴方案推至明年 | 14 | | 四、全球菜籽新作丰产，国内仍受政策端扰动 | | 19 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 23 | | | ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Settlement price 8516, opening price 8520, highest price 8578, lowest price 8506, closing price 8542, up 26 (0.31%), trading volume 299943, open interest 434218, down 14422 [7] - P2601: Settlement price 8492, opening price 8502, highest price 8558, lowest price 8498, closing price 8514, up 22 (0.26%), trading volume 22134, open interest 23925, down 13555 [7] - Y2605: Settlement price 778, opening price 7766, highest price 7832, lowest price 7760, closing price 7824, up 46 (0.59%), trading volume 202686, open interest 642712, down 15724 [7] - Y2601: Settlement price 8004, opening price 7988, highest price 8050, lowest price 7988, closing price 8044, up 40 (0.50%), trading volume 69651, open interest 24712, up 66899 [7] - OI605: Settlement price 8901, opening price 8003, highest price 9020, lowest price 8961, closing price 8981, up 80 (0.90%), trading volume 181994, open interest 197238, up 972 [7] - OI601: Settlement price 9181, opening price 9314, highest price 9372, lowest price 9286, closing price 9361, up 180 (1.96%), trading volume 8539, open interest 12038, down 2656 [7] Basis Price - East China tertiary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 530; February - March: OI2605 + 490 [7] - East China primary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 730; February - March: OI2601 + 690 [7] - East China market primary soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y05 + 500; February - March: Y2605 + 460; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300 [7] - Dongguan palm oil quotes: Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree: 05 + 160; Dongguan COFCO 18 - degree: 05 + 100; Dongguan factories 24 - degree: 05 - 30; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree: 05 + 20 [7] Operation Suggestions - Focus on the spot - futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and temporarily view it as a rebound [8] - CBOT soybeans and Malaysian futures are closed for Christmas. The supply - demand fundamentals of forward contracts are mixed. China's soybean procurement is progressing steadily, supporting CBOT soybeans, but US soybean export data is still weak, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [8] - Domestic soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price has strong support at 7800 - 8000 [8] - Due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is difficult to sustain [8] - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed production hits a record, and Canadian exports are affected by Chinese tariffs. The market believes its valuation should decline. However, rapeseed oil spot is experiencing continuous inventory reduction, with concentrated ownership, and the basis quote is firm. Wait for the first - quarter tariff policy to be clear [8] - Due to the excessive decline, the futures price has rebounded from oversold levels, but be cautious about the unilateral upward height [8] - In arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil, and short on rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. Production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 2.12%, Sarawak decreased by 0.75%, and East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% [11] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1058112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - RMB exchange rate [13][15][18][26][32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the mixed signals in various sectors, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, while emphasizing the potential for policy support and market recovery in the near future [1][2][3][4]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which stands at 2.7% year-on-year, below the anticipated 3.1% [2][17]. - The overall downtrend in CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, supporting the long-term upward trend in precious metals due to factors like weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases [2][17]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock markets were closed, but previous trading saw an increase in stock indices, particularly in the defense and military sectors, with a total market turnover of 1.94 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The financing balance increased by 10.127 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares, supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][10]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.38%, with Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reaching a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [4][13]. - Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the overall trend for crude oil remains downward [4][13]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][17]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [7][12]. Industry News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice to Sunflower regarding its asset acquisition plan, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market dynamics [8]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with expectations for price stability as shipping companies prepare for increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [30].

（来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、市场猜测特朗普政府将在下周就可持续航空燃料的45Z税收抵免做出决定。自1月1日起，根据45Z计 划，美国生物柴油生产商的税收抵免额将提高至每加仑64美分，可再生柴油生产商的税收抵免额将提高 至每加仑53美分。 2、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油产量预估减少7.44%，其 中马来半岛减少11.66%，沙巴减少2.12%，沙捞越减少0.75%，婆罗洲减少1.73%。 3、马棕油出口数据更新： ①据ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-25日棕榈油出口量为1058112吨，较上月同期出口的1041935吨增加 1.6%。 据ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-20日棕榈油产品出口量为851,057吨，较上月同期出口的831,005吨增加 2.4%。 据ITS数据显示，马来西亚12月1-15日棕榈油出口量为613172吨，较上月同期出口的728995吨减少 15.89%。 据ITS：12月1-10日马来西亚棕榈油出口39.04万吨，较上月同期减15%。 来源：市场资讯 据AmSpec数据显示，马来西亚12月1-10日棕榈油出口量为396 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract and view it as a rebound for now. The supply and demand fundamentals of forward contracts have little change, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high-frequency data in Malaysia shows that the export data from December 1 - 20 improved and the production decline from December 1 - 20 widened, providing some support for the palm oil market. The market is also concerned about the development of biodiesel in Indonesia. The domestic soybean oil inventory declines seasonally, and the basis is strong, with strong support for the futures price at 7,800 - 8,000. Rapeseed oil is generally used as a short position in arbitrage, but the basis quote is firm due to continuous inventory reduction and concentrated cargo rights. The futures price rebounds due to excessive decline, but caution is needed regarding the unilateral upward height. In terms of arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: In the East China market, the basis price of the third-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 530, and from February - March was OI2605 + 490. The basis price of the first-grade rapeseed oil from December - January was OI2605 + 730, and from February - March was OI2601 + 690. The basis price of the first-grade soybean oil in the East China market had different values at different time periods. The palm oil quotes of traders in Dongguan were stable [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract. For forward contracts, expect narrow fluctuations. In arbitrage, long palm oil and soybean oil and short rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) stated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20, 2025 decreased by 7.44% month-on-month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month-on-month, the production in Sabah decreased by 2.12% month-on-month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 0.75% month-on-month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% month-on-month [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures, including the spot prices of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the price spreads of P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate [11][13][16]