Group 1 - A-shares showed strong performance this week, with major indices generally rising, particularly the CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and the Small and Medium 100, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 had smaller gains [1][6] - The current valuation of the Sci-Tech 50 and Wind All A indices is relatively high, with their PE (TTM) percentile exceeding 85% since 2010, as of December 26, 2025 [1][6] - Small-cap growth style outperformed this week, with significant gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense, while sectors like beauty care and social services saw declines [1][6] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable policies and increased capital inflows, with historical patterns indicating a "spring rally" [3][8] - The trading volume has increased, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday, with a total weekly turnover of 9.83 trillion yuan, marking a six-week high [3][8] - Policy support is anticipated to boost market confidence and attract various types of capital, with a focus on growth and consumption sectors, particularly TMT and advanced manufacturing during the "spring rally" [4][9] Group 3 - Recent policy developments include the People's Bank of China announcing a one-time credit repair policy, and the housing and urban-rural development meeting outlining real estate priorities for 2026 [2][7] - The issuance of L3 level autonomous driving vehicle licenses in Beijing marks a significant step in the automotive industry, alongside the 2025 Computing Power Internet Conference held in Chengdu [2][7] - The EU has extended economic sanctions against Russia for six months until July 31, 2026, and Japan has finalized its budget for the 2026 fiscal year, setting a new historical high [2][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the "cross-year market" period is characterized by significant industry rotation and style switching rather than a straightforward market trend, with historical patterns indicating mixed performance across indices [2][4]. - Over the past decade, major broad-based indices have shown an average decline during the cross-year period, with the average returns for the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National 2000 indices in January being -4.71%, -6.67%, and -6.68% respectively, indicating a win rate below 50% [2][4]. - The Shanghai Composite 50 and CSI 300 indices have shown average returns of -0.72% and -1.54% in January, with a win rate of 50% over the last ten years, suggesting a relatively stronger performance compared to smaller indices [2][4]. Group 2 - The article highlights that the characteristics of the cross-year market are not indicative of a general beta market trend, but rather a "defensive December and strong differentiation in January" structure, with defensive sectors performing better in December [7][12]. - In January, the banking sector has consistently outperformed other sectors, maintaining a position among the top five in terms of monthly returns, except for 2020 and 2023 [7][12]. - The average returns for most sectors in January have been negative, with many sectors showing win rates of only 30-40%, indicating a lack of broad-based gains and a tendency for performance differentiation [7][12]. Group 3 - Historical statistics suggest that the cross-year phase is not a favorable period for quantitative long strategies to achieve excess returns, but rather exposes differences in strategy concentration, drawdown control, and volatility adaptation [12]. - For investors holding quantitative long private equity funds, the focus during the cross-year period should be on assessing the ability of their products to maintain net value stability in a volatile and differentiated environment [12]. - From an asset allocation perspective, it is advisable to consider complementary configurations of styles and assets to smooth out portfolio volatility, particularly given the banking sector's relative strength in January [12].

来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观首席分析师，张浩；宏观分析师，薛舒宁 2025年7月以来，我国PPI回升趋势较为明朗，预计2026年PPI同比降幅大概率继续收窄、且未来半年可能是修复最快的时期。过往看，PPI回升的不同阶 段，A股走势和领涨风格各异，债市也表现出不同的阶段性特征。本文通过复盘历史各轮PPI回升阶段的股债表现，以求挖掘2026年PPI回升过程中催生的 投资机会。 核心结论：2000年以来有5轮PPI回升，以史为鉴、全面复盘、用数据说话。 1、股市方面，过往5轮，A股多呈上行趋势、且阶段性特征明显： >第一阶段，PPI环比见底时：A股估值率先修复、股价上涨，中小盘成长股占优，TMT、传媒涨幅领先； >第二阶段，PPI同比由底部回升至转正前：大盘继续上行、风格更加均衡，成长、消费、周期均有不错表现，如电子、通信、电力设备、食品饮料、家 电、美容护理、有色金属、基础化工等； >第三阶段，PPI同比转正后：大盘转入高位震荡，股市风格再平衡，价值占优的概率提升，周期、稳定风格表现跑赢大盘。 2、债市方面，通胀因素仅是影响10Y国债利率的变量之一，增长预期和流动性环境更为关键。只有需求确定性改 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, focusing on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][28]. Core Insights - The market performance for the week of December 15-20, 2025, showed significant gains in the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors, outperforming the overall market with increases of +6.66%, +2.66%, and +2.87% respectively [2][14]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November 2025 reached 45.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In November alone, retail sales totaled 4.39 trillion yuan, growing by 1.3% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [3][22]. - The service consumption growth rate outpaced that of goods retail, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The beauty care, retail, and social services sectors ranked first, fourth, and third among 31 primary industries, respectively, during the week [2][14]. - Specific sub-sectors such as general retail, hotel and catering, and professional chains saw notable increases of +9.67%, +8.40%, and +5.06% [15]. Key Industry Data and News - The retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 showed a modest increase, with categories like communication equipment and jewelry performing well, while automotive and home appliances faced challenges due to high base effects and subsidy reductions [3][22]. - The Ministry of Commerce initiated a two-year pilot program for new consumption models in 50 cities, aiming to stimulate consumption through various innovative approaches [3][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the beauty care and new consumption sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Shangmei Co., Juzhi Biotechnology, and Marubi Biotechnology [5][28].

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index closed at 25,774, down 0.11% for the day but up 28.49% year-to-date[1] - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,920, up 0.07% for the day and 16.95% year-to-date[1] - US Dow Jones closed at 48,442, up 0.16% for the day and 13.86% year-to-date[1] Sector Performance - Hang Seng Financial Index at 49,069, up 0.58% for the day and 39.65% year-to-date[2] - Hang Seng Industrial Index at 13,970, down 0.55% for the day and up 24.18% year-to-date[2] - Hang Seng Real Estate Index at 17,858, up 0.56% for the day and 19.75% year-to-date[2] Capital Flows and Market Trends - Southbound capital net inflow of HKD 611 million, with Alibaba, Meituan, and Zijin Mining as top net buys[3] - A-shares in social services, beauty care, and retail saw the largest declines, while power equipment, building materials, and electronics led gains[3] - Anticipation of a spring market in early 2024, with technology and consumer sectors expected to outperform[3] Economic Indicators - US GDP growth at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, the highest in two years[3] - Core PCE inflation at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[3] - Consumer confidence index declined for the fifth consecutive month, while the job market shows improvement[3]

Market Overview - In the week of December 15-19, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations, with the ChiNext index showing a significant decline [4] - The retail trade, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors saw the highest gains, while the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 18.321 billion units. This includes 8 bond funds, 14 equity funds, 11 mixed funds, 3 FOF funds, and 4 money market funds [5] Fund Performance Tracking - The long-term thematic fund indices showed that financial and real estate theme funds performed well, while TMT theme funds experienced a net value decline. As of December 19, 2025, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: financial and real estate (2.17%), national defense and military industry (1.75%), cyclical (1.68%), consumption (0.92%), industry rotation (-0.32%), industry balance (-0.65%), new energy (-1.66%), pharmaceuticals (-1.85%), and TMT (-2.02%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, stock ETFs saw significant inflows, with various broad-based ETFs receiving increased investments. The median return for stock ETFs was -0.33%, with a net inflow of 55.232 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.06% and a net inflow of 12.373 billion yuan [7][8] - Broad-based ETFs experienced a total inflow of 33.739 billion yuan, while TMT theme ETFs saw an inflow of 6.652 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 31 new green bonds were issued, totaling 18.530 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of green bonds in the domestic market reached 5.15 trillion yuan, with 4,427 bonds issued [9] - The domestic market currently has 211 ESG funds with a total scale of 149.677 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types were: active equity (-1.35%), passive equity index (-0.54%), and bond ESG funds (0.06%) [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "closure" of Hainan Free Trade Port is not about isolation but represents a higher level of openness, marking a significant shift in China's approach to foreign trade and investment [4][5]. Total Research - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced its full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, establishing a customs supervision special area with a new management system [4]. - The operational model of the closure can be summarized as "one line open, two lines controlled, and free movement within the island" [4]. - The customs will simplify the clearance process for most goods entering Hainan, particularly those on the "zero tariff" negative list [4]. - The management of goods entering the mainland from Hainan will be precise, focusing on tax-exempt and value-added goods to prevent market disruption [4]. Policy Changes - The closure operation will introduce four major policy benefits: more favorable "zero tariff" policies, relaxed trade management measures, efficient supervision, and expanded tax benefits [6]. - This marks a transition for Hainan from a "policy exploration zone" to a "formal operation zone," providing unprecedented development momentum [5]. Industry Impact - The closure will reshape Hainan's industries and sectors, impacting cost structures, supply chains, market access, and competitive landscapes [7]. - In the consumption and tourism sector, Hainan aims to establish a comprehensive duty-free and high-quality service system, reinforcing its status as an international tourism consumption center [7]. - The modern service industry is expected to advance towards higher-end and international standards, attracting international financial and professional service institutions [7]. - The high-tech industry will benefit from the closure, particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, creating a rapid pathway for innovation and reshaping global competition [7].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.07% on December 23, with nine sectors experiencing gains, led by the power equipment and building materials sectors, which increased by 1.12% and 0.88% respectively [2] - The social services and beauty care sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 2.07% and 1.65% respectively [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 44.851 billion yuan, with only four sectors experiencing net inflows [2] - The power equipment sector had the highest net inflow of 3.793 billion yuan, while the basic chemicals sector saw a modest increase of 0.22% with a net inflow of 1.002 billion yuan [2] Beauty Care Sector Performance - The beauty care sector declined by 1.65%, with a net capital outflow of 20.9 million yuan, and only one of the 29 stocks in this sector experienced an increase [3] - Among the stocks in the beauty care sector, the top net inflow was seen in Weigao Medical, with an inflow of 6.4623 million yuan, followed by Baiya Shares and Jinsong New Materials with inflows of 2.0286 million yuan and 1.9708 million yuan respectively [3] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included Shuiyang Shares, Aimeike, and Qingdao Jinwang, with outflows of 39.424 million yuan, 36.5303 million yuan, and 27.3292 million yuan respectively [3][4] Individual Stock Performance - The following stocks in the beauty care sector had significant net outflows: - Shuiyang Shares: -2.42% with a net outflow of 39.424 million yuan - Aimeike: -1.46% with a net outflow of 36.5303 million yuan - Qingdao Jinwang: -2.75% with a net outflow of 27.3292 million yuan - Other notable declines included Kesheng Shares and Huaxi Biological, with outflows of 20.9663 million yuan and 9.1295 million yuan respectively [3][4]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07% to close at 3919.98 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.27% to 13368.99 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.41% to 3205.01 points, indicating a generally stable market with 1508 stocks rising and 3852 stocks falling [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, the leading sectors included Power Equipment, Building Materials, Electronics, Nonferrous Metals, and Banking, with respective gains of 1.12%, 0.88%, 0.58%, 0.42%, and 0.37%. Conversely, sectors such as Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Defense, and Computers experienced declines, with losses of 2.07%, 1.65%, 1.60%, 1.42%, and 1.05% respectively [1][10]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included Lithium Battery Electrolyte, Glass Fiber, Liquid Cooling Servers, Power Batteries, Copper Clad Laminates, Lithium Battery Anodes, Solid-State Batteries, Lithium Batteries, Fluorine Chemicals, Sodium-Ion Batteries, Lithium Mines, Lithium Battery Cathodes, and Lithium Iron Phosphate Batteries. These sectors showed significant upward movement, reflecting strong investor interest [2][12].

Market Overview - The overall market shows a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.27%, the ChiNext Index by 0.41%, and the STAR Market 50 Index by 0.36%, indicating a preference for growth styles [2] - A-share trading volume reached 1.9 trillion yuan, with a cumulative annual trading volume exceeding 405 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, reflecting increased market activity and liquidity depth [2] Structural Analysis - The performance of the Shenwan first-level industry indices reveals clear capital flows, with leading sectors such as power equipment (+1.12%), building materials (+0.88%), and electronics (+0.58%) showing gains, while consumer sectors like social services (-2.07%) and beauty care (-1.65%) faced significant adjustments [3] - The leading sectors benefit from clear industrial policies, improved economic cycles, or expectations of valuation recovery, while the consumer sector's adjustment reflects a reassessment of short-term recovery strength and valuation [3] Focus on Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain has seen a comprehensive surge, with significant increases in sub-indices for lithium battery electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and lithium battery separators, driven by solid underlying logic rather than speculative trading [4] Market Outlook - The index is likely to maintain a volatile trend, but structural opportunities will continue to emerge, supported by a friendly policy environment, ample liquidity, gradually recovering corporate earnings, and reasonable market valuations [4] - A forward-looking judgment suggests that the "spring excitement" market in 2026 may start earlier than expected, driven by strong policy expectations, improving economic fundamentals, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4] - Key market themes are expected to revolve around technology innovation (AI applications, semiconductors, robotics), cyclical recovery (improving supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals and chemicals), and balanced allocation (low-valuation sectors benefiting from market activity) [4] Summary of Market Sentiment - The market has conducted a concentrated "vote" through clear sector differentiation, indicating that funds are currently favoring directions aligned with long-term policy guidance and improving economic conditions [5] - The central economic work conference has positioned new energy as a strategic emerging industry, with potential support from special government bonds, providing clear backing for long-term industry development [5] - In a context of ample market liquidity, growth sectors attract high-risk preference funds, as evidenced by significant trading volumes in related thematic indices, indicating institutional capital's collective layout rather than retail speculation [5] - Marginal improvements in the fundamentals are noted, with a stable trend in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and signs of price stabilization for key materials after prolonged declines, correcting pessimistic profit expectations in the supply chain [5]