Group 1: Market Information - Futures market: CF01 contract closed at 13,540 with a decline of 70, trading volume of 241,105 (a decrease of 94,261), and open interest of 532,801 (an increase of 10,524). CY01 contract closed at 19,635 with a decline of 45, trading volume of 228 (an increase of 108), and open interest of 480 (an increase of 18). Other contracts also had corresponding price, volume, and open - interest changes [3]. - Spot market: CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,133 yuan/ton, down 150; CY IndexC32S was 20,615 yuan/ton, down 90. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had price fluctuations [3]. - Spread: Cotton and棉纱 had various spreads, including inter - month spreads, inter - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 20, down 15; the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,095, up 25 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - Market news: As of September 20, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 99%, up 2.4 percentage points week - on - week, 0.8% slower than last year. As of September 18, the processing progress was 41%. As of September 21, the boll opening rate of US cotton in 15 major planting states was 60%, 2 percentage points slower than last year; the harvest rate was 12%, the same as the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 47%, 10 percentage points higher than last year [6]. - Trading logic: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. Xinjiang cotton production is expected to increase more than expected, and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average. There is expected to be no large - scale rush to buy. The acquisition price is expected to be around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season performance this year is expected to be average [7]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [8][9][10]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Market news: After the sharp decline of Zhengzhou cotton, the price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. The prices of some spinning mills with high quotes dropped by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The all - cotton grey fabric market was weak. Low - count conventional varieties still had sales, but the increase in custom - woven orders was limited, and the profit margin was small [10][12]. Group 3: Options - Option data: For the option contract CF601C14000.CZC on September 23, 2025, the underlying contract price was 13,540, the closing price was 130, with a decline of 25.7%. Other option contracts also had corresponding price, volatility, and Greek letter data [14]. - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on that day was 10.5675, with a slight decline compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different, such as 12.3% for CF601C14000.CZC [14]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [10][16]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 8964.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of 3.88% [1] Group 1: Market Data - The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) reported a 6.57% month-on-month decrease in Malaysian palm oil yield for the period of September 1-20, 2025, along with a 0.25% decrease in extraction rate and a 7.89% reduction in production [2] - As of September 19, domestic palm oil commercial inventory stands at 600,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 130,000 tons [2] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) indicated that the price of crude palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 4200 to 4500 MYR per ton in the short term, supported by a robust global vegetable oil market and supply uncertainties [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures suggests that the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for palm oil market consumption expectations, with buying demand noted in mid-September. The fundamental outlook remains bullish, but caution is advised due to frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policies that may negatively impact palm oil adjustments [3] - Dae Yu Futures notes that oilseed prices are stabilizing, with a relaxed domestic fundamental environment and stable oilseed supply. The USDA's high production expectations for South America in 2024/25 and neutral Malaysian palm oil inventory are highlighted, along with improved demand due to Indonesia's B40 policy promoting domestic consumption [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is expected to maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. In the short term, there is a harvest pressure from the concentrated listing of new grains, with strong expectations of restorative yield increase and lower costs driving prices down. In the long term, prices are not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks [1][2]. - For other agricultural products: - Oils are likely to continue to oscillate in the short term and may rise again in the medium term due to factors such as the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September, potential reduction in US soybean yields, and increased overseas biodiesel demand [5]. - Protein meals are expected to oscillate and rise. The market is dominated by fundamentals, with US soybeans entering the harvest period and South American sowing progress uncertain [6]. - The hog market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Supply is abundant in the short and medium term, while the long - term outlook may improve if the "anti - involution" policy effectively reduces production capacity [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, supported by data revisions and short - term fundamentals [9][10]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain an interval oscillation pattern, with no significant changes in short - term fundamentals and raw materials [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to adjust downward in the medium term due to the expected large yield increase in Xinjiang cotton in the new season, but may have short - term rebound opportunities [12]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the long term and downward - seeking support in the short term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season [14]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the driving force and valuation unable to provide consistent guidance [15]. - Double - gum paper is expected to oscillate narrowly, and short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. - Logs are expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals but lack of strong upward driving force and pressure from the delivery side [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn - **Current Situation**: Domestic spot prices are differentiated. Northeast deep - processing prices are falling due to increased arrivals, while port prices are strong due to high shipping demand. New grain listing is concentrated in eastern Heilongjiang, and there are issues with grain quality in North China [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: There is a harvest pressure from new grain listing, and the addition of a new Wednesday directional auction session for imported corn with lower reserve prices has increased pessimism. Consider short - selling opportunities and reverse - spread arbitrage [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks, prices are not pessimistic, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [2]. 3.2 Oils - **Current Situation**: Last Friday, US beans and crude oil prices fell. The area affected by drought in US soybeans has expanded, and the excellent - good rate has been continuously lowered. Malaysian palm oil production in September is expected to decline month - on - month, and exports have increased. Domestic soybean imports are expected to seasonally decline, and soybean oil inventories may peak [5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower support. In the medium term, prices may rise again due to multiple factors [5]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Current Situation**: International soybean trade premiums have increased. US soybeans are entering the harvest period, and South American sowing progress is slow. Domestically, oil mills are operating at a high rate, and downstream is stocking up before the festival. The import volume of soybeans from September to November is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: The market is dominated by fundamentals. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and double - meal prices are expected to oscillate and rise. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910, and add positions at 2980 - 3000 when the market stabilizes [6]. 3.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: The National Development and Reform Commission is continuing to purchase 15,000 tons of hogs for storage. In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is affected by factors such as the increase in the ratio of live pigs to meat and the narrowing of the price difference between fat and lean pigs. The inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are weakly oscillating. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, prices may gradually strengthen in 2026 [8]. 3.5 Rubber - **Current Situation**: Rubber prices first fell and then rose, mainly due to the downward revision of inventory data. Fundamentally, the spot is strong, inventory is being reduced, and the basis is continuously narrowing. Supply may be affected by precipitation at the end of September, and downstream procurement willingness needs to be observed [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and a short - term long - buying strategy can be considered during the callback in September [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The BR disk fluctuates with natural rubber prices, and there are no major contradictions. The absolute price and operating logic have not changed much recently. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals and raw materials are expected to have no significant changes, and the disk is expected to oscillate within the range [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The current contradiction in the domestic market is between the tight inventory at the end of the old - new year conversion period and the expected yield increase in the new season. The demand has seasonally improved, but the upward driving force is limited. The new cotton harvest is about to start, and the purchase price may first rise and then fall [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13,500 yuan/ton and short - term rebound opportunities. In the medium term, prices are expected to adjust downward due to the expected yield increase [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices moved down, breaking through the 5,500 yuan/ton platform. The international trade flow is loose, and domestic sugar imports increased in August [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short term, prices are expected to seek support downward [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Pulp futures are oscillating at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price of Russian needles. The US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the changes [15]. - **Outlook**: The driving force and valuation cannot provide consistent guidance, and the futures are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.10 Double - gum Paper - **Current Situation**: After listing, the disk has been oscillating around 4,200 yuan, lacking a substantial driving force. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from publishers' tenders has not started [16]. - **Outlook**: Short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The disk first rose and then fell, and the 09 contract was smoothly delivered. The downstream sales have improved since mid - September, and the delivery logic has a negative impact on the disk [18]. - **Outlook**: The buyer's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the disk is expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to stabilize weakly, while in the long - term, sugar prices are still under pressure in the supply - abundant cycle. It is recommended to operate with short - term quick in - and - out strategies or sell out - of - the - money call options [3]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is expected to be supported in the short - term, but the upward driving force is not clear. It is necessary to verify the peak season performance of finished paper. It is advisable to try short - position allocation near the upper limit of the range [4][5]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The disk has certain support, but the upward driving force is not clear, and the upward height may be limited. Attention can be paid to month - to - month reverse arbitrage and medium - term long - pulp short - paper arbitrage, and short - position allocation can be attempted near the pressure level [6]. - **Cotton**: With new cotton about to be listed, the short - term futures price may be under pressure. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices [7]. Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - **Apple**: The market divergence increases, and the futures price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to maintain a range - trading idea [8]. - **Jujube**: Aggressive investors can short the 2601 contract at high prices, while conservative investors can hold the short - 01 long - 05 reverse arbitrage [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | Range - trading | The difference in the new - season fulfillment expectation and the game of the delivery value increase, and the short - term futures price returns to the range expectation | 7500 - 7600 | 8500 - 8600 | | Jujube 2601 | Short at high prices | The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, which is prone to weather premium | 10500 - 11000 | 11500 - 12000 | | Sugar 2601 | Short - term operation | The rebound of raw sugar supports domestic sugar prices. After the sharp decline of Zhengzhou sugar recently, the bearish sentiment has been released, and it is expected to stabilize weakly in the short - term | 5420 - 5440 | 5540 - 5560 | | Pulp 2511 | Range - short | The valuation of softwood pulp is not high. Recently, there have been mill inspections overseas, which have a positive impact on prices in terms of sentiment, but the pulp's own fundamentals still suppress prices before the finished paper prices stabilize and rebound | 4900 - 4950 | 5150 - 5200 | | Double - offset Paper 2601 | Short - position allocation on rebound | The approaching peak season supports short - term prices, but when the supply elasticity is high, the upward height of prices relying solely on peak - season demand may be limited | 4100 - 4200 | 4400 - 4500 | | Cotton 2601 | Short at high prices | The Fed's interest - rate cut is fulfilled, new cotton is about to be listed, and the short - term futures price may be under pressure | 13400 - 13500 | 14300 - 14400 | [18] Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was about 464,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. As of September 17, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 163,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,900 tons. Different institutions have different forecasts for apple production [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream transaction price of apples in Shandong is stable. The supply of early - maturing varieties is increasing, and the prices vary greatly. The procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest is okay, and the price of pre - harvest orders is high. The arrival of goods in the sales area is stable, and the mainstream transaction price remains stable [20][21]. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9,321 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The market is in a state of seeking direction in dynamic balance [22]. Sugar Market In August 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and sugar pre - mixed powder in total, a year - on - year decrease of 155,800 tons. As of the week of September 16, the non - commercial net short position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased. The spot price of sugar has been significantly reduced [24]. Pulp Market The demand for pulp replenishment may increase when the peak season approaches, but the extent needs to be tracked. China's pulp imports have been decreasing, and the supply pressure has been relieved. Some suppliers have lowered the price of non - NBSK softwood pulp, while most suppliers intend to keep the price of imported NBSK unchanged. The price of South American bleached hardwood pulp has been partially increased [4][27]. Double - offset Paper Market The mainstream transaction prices in different regions vary, and the overall market is in a state of weak demand and high supply. Some production lines have resumed production, and the industry's operating rate has increased slightly [28][29]. Cotton Market As of September 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory and available cotton inventory decreased. According to the CFTC report, the non - commercial net long position of ICE cotton futures and options increased [31]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 8291 | 18 | 0.22% | | Jujube 2601 | 10735 | 65 | 0.61% | | Sugar 2601 | 5452 | - 9 | - 0.16% | | Pulp 2511 | 5008 | - 10 | - 0.20% | | Cotton 2601 | 13610 | - 110 | - 0.80% | [33] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.20 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5800 | - 30 | - 590 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5650 | 0 | - 500 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4500 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15224 | - 59 | 259 | [40] Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description in the content, only relevant charts are provided [50]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 164 | - 7 | 201 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 215 | 205 | - 130 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 20 | 5 | 10 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | - 5 | - 20 | 30 | Range - bound | Temporarily wait - and - see | [58] Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description in the content, only relevant charts are provided [66]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8323 | - 107 | 2411 | | Sugar | 10315 | - 49 | - 3137 | | Pulp | 244600 | - 41 | - 239416 | | Cotton | 4096 | - 136 | - 2715 | [87] Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description in the content, only relevant charts are provided [87].

Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the pre - festival stocking may provide temporary support for soybean prices, but the upcoming large - scale listing of new soybeans in the Northeast may impact the Guanzhong market, and the supply pressure in the Hubei and Hunan regions is increasing. The market is generally bearish on the future soybean price trend [1][3] - For peanuts, the supply is gradually increasing but not yet in large quantities, the supply of high - quality goods is limited, the traditional festival stocking market is lackluster, the demand from the peanut oil terminal has not increased significantly, and attention should be paid to the price - supporting effect of oil mills' subsequent purchases [4][5][6] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3912.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan/ton or +0.20% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 308, down 8 or 32.14% from the previous day. The new season soybeans in the Northeast have started to be sporadically listed, with the current purchase price of raw grains between 1.9 - 1.95 yuan/jin, and the price of low - protein tower grains about 2 yuan/jin. The market trading is light, and most grain trading enterprises are waiting to buy after the soybeans are concentratedly listed at the end of this month [1][2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2511 contract yesterday was 7806.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8380.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan/ton or +0.60% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK11 + 394.00, up 28.00 or +7.65% month - on - month. The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin [4] Market Information Summary Soybeans - The new season soybeans in the Northeast have started to be sporadically listed, showing the characteristic of "high - quality products at high prices". The market trading is light, and most enterprises are waiting to buy after the concentrated listing at the end of this month. The market is generally bearish on the future soybean price trend. The prices of tower grains in various regions in Heilongjiang remained flat compared with the previous day [2] Peanuts - The new peanut listing areas continue to expand but have not yet been in large - scale supply. The supply of high - quality goods is small. Due to high moisture or large quality differences, traders are cautious in purchasing. Only some oil mills are making small - scale purchases, and the transaction rate is low. The terminal demand for peanut oil has not increased significantly [5][6] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the粕类 market is neutral, and for the corn market, it is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The outcome of the Sino-US peace talks is yet to be determined, but there are positive signals. The US biodiesel policy has not met market expectations, and the decline in oil prices has dragged down the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the fundamentals remain unchanged, with rising inventory of soybeans and soybean meal and ample supply. The focus is on the Sino-US trade negotiations [2] - In the domestic corn market, as new grain gradually enters the market, supply increases. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement sentiment and the volume of new grain [4] Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3034 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.66% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2528 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.24% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of the week ending September 7, Canada's rapeseed exports were 4.6 million tons, and the cumulative exports for the 2025/26 season were 57.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3% [1] Market Analysis - The Sino-US peace talks have sent positive signals, but the US biodiesel policy has not met expectations, and the decline in oil prices has dragged down US soybean prices. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable, with increasing inventory and ample supply. The focus is on Sino-US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2431 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton or 1.30% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market News: For the week ending September 11, US corn export sales for the 2025/26 season increased by 1.2316 million tons, exports for the next season were 0 tons, and export shipments were 1.5559 million tons, an 8% increase from the previous week and a 16% increase from the four-week average [3] Market Analysis - Supply: Corn in Northeast and North China is gradually entering the market, with prices in Liaoning first falling and then rising, and prices in North China continuing to decline. Supply is relatively ample [4] - Demand: Deep processing enterprises have low demand, and feed enterprises have low inventory, mainly replenishing on demand and waiting for new grain [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal declined significantly. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans to 53.5 bushels, and the reduction was lower than market expectations. It raised the estimated soybean crushing volume to 2.555 billion bushels and lowered the estimated export volume to 1.685 billion bushels, ultimately increasing the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 to 300 million bushels. Currently, US soybeans are gradually entering the harvest and listing period, and the harvest pressure will gradually emerge. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which will put short - term pressure on the soybean market. It is expected that soybean meal will mainly operate under pressure [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Recently, Sabah, Malaysia, was affected by flood weather, but concerns about production have cooled down. According to high - frequency data, SPPOMA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15, 2025 decreased by 8.05% compared with the same period last month. In terms of exports, SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 decreased by 24.7%. Both the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil declined, and Argentina cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which pressured the soybean oil price and dragged down the short - term performance of the oil sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8366 for soybean oil, 9360 for palm oil, 10143 for rapeseed oil, 3034 for soybean meal, 2548 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 38, 44, 75, 20, 5, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.47%, - 3.15%, 0.66%, 0.20%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 were - 332, - 558, - 728, - 768, 1381, and 613 respectively, with previous values of - 338, - 524, - 569, - 802, 1466, and 664 [1]. - Ratios and spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 were - 143, - 81, 444, 1.18, 2.78, and 5143 respectively, with previous values of - 115, - 87, 464, 1.19, 2.76, and 5091 [1]. International Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4363 for BMD palm oil (Ringgit/ton), 1011 for CBOT soybeans (cents/bushel), 50 for CBOT US soybean oil (cents/pound), and 280 for CBOT US soybean meal (dollars/ton). The price changes were - 5, - 15, - 1, and - 4 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 1.44%, - 1.90%, and - 1.41% [1]. Spot Market Domestic Spot - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil, and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 8580, 8700, 9380, 9270, 10370, and 10370 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, 0.35%, - 0.32%, - 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.48% [1]. - Basis: The current spot basis of the above - mentioned products were 214, 334, 20, - 90, 227, and 227 respectively [1]. - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal were - 590, 1400, and 330 respectively, with previous values of - 610, 1340, and 350 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 314, 63, - 71, 288, 748, and 1116 respectively, with previous values of - 361, 4, - 130, 320, 881, and 1020 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 25,644, 1,570, 8,182, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 25,644, 1,570, 8,202, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 [1]. Industry Information - Palm oil: SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 6.57% compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 7.89% compared with the same period last month [2]. - Soybeans: As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 0.9% of the expected total area. The field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states had significantly increased, and the current progress was the same as the same period last year [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and inventory pressure needs to be released [1]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, causing US soybeans to fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures during the day session was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and 9,152 yuan/ton at night with a -2.22% decrease. For soybean oil futures, it was 8,366 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.46% increase and 8,172 yuan/ton at night with a -2.32% decrease. Rapeseed oil futures closed at 10,143 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.74% increase and 10,073 yuan/ton at night with a -0.69% decrease. The Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD) closed at 4,442 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.41% increase and 4,369 ringgit/ton at night with a -1.67% decrease. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 49.63 cents/pound with a -1.96% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. For soybean oil futures, the trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. Rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 275,428 lots, a decrease of 36,699 lots, and an open interest of 366,477 lots, an increase of 14,048 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 90 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 344 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 783 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 994 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 206 yuan/ton, of soybean oil was 288 yuan/ton, and of rapeseed oil was 505 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions had different estimates of Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20: ITS reported 1,010,032 tons, an increase from the previous month; AmSpec reported 941,984 tons, an 8.3% increase; SGS estimated 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease [3][4][5][6]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The defoliation rate was 61%. As of the week ending September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the market forecast. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year was 1,569,777 tons, higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year. In the first three weeks of September, Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume 8.20% higher than that of September last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association plans to invest 59 billion reais (11.1 billion US dollars) in the next 12 months, which will increase the soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [7]. - **Argentina**: On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches 7 billion US dollars. In August, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3,904,901 tons, with a soybean oil output of 759,356 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,830,752 tons [7][8]. - **Canada**: A canola oil transshipment facility in Canada, invested 150 million Canadian dollars (109 million US dollars) by DP World, has started full - scale operation, increasing the export capacity by 1 million tons per year [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9].

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index declined by 1.22%, closing at 28.8367 points, with a continuous downward trend throughout the day [1] - The index experienced a significant drop, reaching 28.6721 points by 22:20, approaching the August 6 low of 28.2567 points and the September 28, 2020 low of 27.1193 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.53%, while CBOT wheat futures decreased by 2.39%, settling at $5.10 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 1.39%, closing at $10.1125 per bushel, with soybean meal futures down by 1.34% and soybean oil futures down by 1.96% [1] - In contrast, CBOT softwood futures increased by 0.35%, and CBOT lean hog futures rose by 1.23%, with live cattle futures up by 1.56% and feeder cattle futures increasing by 2.64% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts closed lower across the board on September 22, with significant declines in soybean, corn, and wheat futures [1][2]. Group 2 - Soybean futures fell by 1.39%, closing at 1011.25 cents per bushel [1]. - Corn futures decreased by 0.53%, ending at 421.75 cents per bushel [1]. - Wheat futures experienced a decline of 2.39%, closing at 510.00 cents per bushel [1].