Core Insights - The A-share market saw collective gains last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.63%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 30,849.73 billion yuan [1][7] - In terms of industry performance, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and national defense sectors led the gains, while communication, banking, and coal sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as BC batteries, perovskite batteries, and TOPCON battery concepts showed significant increases, while corn, Tonghuashun overseas 50, and soybean concepts experienced declines [1][7] Important News - Beijing has released measures to promote the development and utilization of commercial satellite remote sensing data resources from 2026 to 2030. The measures encourage capable enterprises to engage in mergers and acquisitions within the satellite data industry, aiming to create globally competitive leading enterprises [2][8] Industry Analysis - A joint document from nine government departments encourages horizontal mergers and acquisitions in the pharmaceutical retail sector. This initiative aims to enhance the professional services and health promotion functions of the pharmaceutical retail industry, establishing a better service platform for public health needs [3][9] - The document outlines several key policies, including optimizing the service of designated retail pharmacies, promoting participation in centralized drug procurement, and encouraging the integration of pharmaceutical wholesale and retail businesses. It also supports the development of commercial health insurance products tailored to the pharmaceutical retail sector [10][11] - The policy emphasizes support for prescription outflow, collaboration between retail and commercial insurance, and encourages the consolidation of retail pharmacies. This is expected to benefit leading companies in the pharmacy sector and open a window for industry consolidation [13]

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports a decrease in stock positions among public funds in Q4, with an increase in A-shares and a continued decline in Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 1: Public Fund Position Changes - In Q4, the overall stock position of public funds decreased, while A-share positions increased and Hong Kong stock positions continued to decline [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.2% in Q4, with the ChiNext Index down by 1.1% and the STAR Market down by 10.1% [2] - The median return of actively managed equity public funds dropped to -1.5%, marking the lowest quarterly return of the year [2] Group 2: Asset Scale and Composition - The total asset value of public funds increased from 38.1 trillion yuan to 39.5 trillion yuan in Q4, with stock assets slightly rising to over 9 trillion yuan [3] - The proportion of equity assets decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 22.9%, while bond assets increased by 0.6 percentage points to 53.4% [3] Group 3: Active Equity Fund Characteristics - The total value of actively managed equity funds decreased from 3.1 trillion yuan to 3 trillion yuan, with stock asset scale declining to 2.6 trillion yuan [4] - A-share positions rose from 71.7% to 72.3%, remaining at a relatively low level over the past decade [4] - The net redemption scale of actively managed equity funds decreased to 128.2 billion yuan in Q4 [4] Group 4: Heavyweight Stock Configuration - The concentration of holdings in leading companies decreased, with the market value of the top 100 companies held by actively managed equity funds dropping from 60.3% to 58.8% [5] - The top 50 companies' market value share fell from 47.7% to 46.7% [5] - The positions in the ChiNext increased by 1.2 percentage points to 24.9%, while the STAR Market positions decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 16.7% [5] Group 5: Sector Adjustments - Increased allocations were seen in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, and non-bank financials, while reductions occurred in consumer electronics and innovative pharmaceuticals [6][7] - Non-ferrous metals saw a 2.3 percentage point increase in positions, supported by strong industry fundamentals [6] - The communication sector's position rose by 2 percentage points, while consumer electronics saw a decrease of 2.5 percentage points [7] Group 6: ETF Fund Developments - The total asset value of public ETFs rose from 6.6 trillion yuan to 7.1 trillion yuan, with stock assets accounting for 65% [8] - The total asset value of stock ETFs reached 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight increase [8] Group 7: Future Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to show a "long-term" and "steady" trend, supported by multiple factors including industry hotspots and improved liquidity [9] - The market is anticipated to perform strongly at the beginning of the year, with trading volumes reaching new highs [9] Group 8: Investment Recommendations - Suggested areas for investment include AI technology, overseas expansion opportunities, cyclical reversals, high dividend stocks, and sectors with promising annual report highlights [10]

点击小程序查看报告原文 公募基金四季度仓位变动：股票仓位有所下降；A股仓位上升，港股继续下降 2025年四季度，A股整体窄幅震荡。11月中上旬，受中美关系阶段性缓和与"十五五"政策预期带动，上证指数一度刷新年内高点；其后在美联储降息节奏 反复、市场对AI估值泡沫担忧升温等因素扰动下，风险偏好有所回落；至12月中旬跨年行情启动，市场再度走强。总体来看，四季度上证指数上涨 2.2%；前期表现强势的成长风格回调，科创50下跌10.1%，跌幅靠前，创业板指收跌1.1%；偏大盘的上证50上涨1.4%而沪深300微跌0.2%；偏中小盘的中 证1000和中证2000分别上涨0.3%和3.6%；红利风格有所表现，中证红利指数上涨0.8%。在此背景下，主动偏股型公募基金单季度收益率中位数为-1.5%， 较上季度显著下降，单季收益为年内最低。 公募基金资产规模继续扩张，权益资产占比下降，债券资产占比回升。 公募基金整体资产规模连续三个季度扩张，四季度资产总值由上季度的38.1万亿元 升至39.5万亿元。其中，股票资产规模小幅上升至9万亿元以上，股票占资产总值的比重较上季度下降0.7个百分点至22.9%；债券资产占比较上季度上升 ...

Group 1 - Since September 2024, the proportion of southbound capital transactions has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, nearly doubling compared to before 2024 [2][5] - In 2025, both active and passive foreign capital have become synchronous indicators of the Hong Kong stock market, showing no leading characteristics [2][5] - During sharp declines or corrections in the Hong Kong stock market, southbound capital tends to buy against the trend [2][5] Group 2 - Each round of pricing power competition typically begins with the optimization of the Stock Connect policy or the influx of incremental capital, which usually flows into dividend and scarce assets [5] - Net outflows of southbound capital often occur in response to adverse industry policies or external macroeconomic environments, particularly in sectors where foreign capital pricing power is increasing, such as software services, hardware equipment, consumer services, and discretionary retail [5][12] - Industries less likely to experience significant net outflows include those favored by long-term capital, such as banking, telecommunications, and public utilities, unless there are clear adverse policies affecting the sector [5][12] Group 3 - The proportion of medium to long-term capital in the current round of southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has increased, with insurance capital making 41 stakes, 35 of which are in H-shares, marking the highest record in the past decade [8] - Key industries for increased holdings include discretionary retail, finance (banking, insurance), innovative pharmaceuticals, software services, and hardware equipment [8] Group 4 - Current industries with pricing power for southbound capital and Chinese capital include semiconductors and dividend stocks, while industries lacking pricing power include internet, hardware equipment, software services, home appliances, and media [11][12] - Active management public funds have low pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market, focusing heavily on AI-related CSP giants, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [16]

中金公司张峻栋认为，美日国债风暴可能倒逼美国联储开启YCC，全球流动性宽松预期增强。目 前美元贬值周期将利好人民币兑美元汇率，同时助推中国资产的吸引力。资本市场结构性机会最 显著，建议布局A股和港股，尤其是全球资金低配的中国市场；此外，有色金属在弱美元周期中 表现或相对突出。 2.万家基金：通缩逆转或带来市场风格切换 【 摘要 】中金公司张峻栋认为，美日国债风暴可能倒逼美国联储开启YCC，助推中国资产的吸 引力。万家基金叶勇指出，2026年有望走出通缩格局，PPI转正将促资产价格回升和顺周期板块 回暖。 一、焦点锐评 1．中际旭创成公募基金第一大重仓股 公募基金2025年四季报披露收官。Wind数据显示，中际旭创超越宁德时代成为公募基金第一大市 值重仓股，新易盛居第三。当季，公募基金加大了对焦电子、电力设备等核心赛道布局。截至 2025年底，公募基金市场总规模接近37万亿元，续创历史新高。 【解读】银河证券杨超分析称，2025年第四季度末，股票仓位环比下降1.40个百分点至84.22%， 依然处于2005年以来历史高位水平。其中，A股在资产配置中的占比延续上行，上升0.66个百分 点至72.18%。整体来看， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the spring market still has room for further development, with a focus on performance-driven investment strategies as earnings forecasts are set to be disclosed intensively in late January [1][5] - A-shares have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with significant money-making effects being restored, while major indices have exhibited mixed performances, indicating a divergence in market styles [1][3] - The liquidity in the market remains relatively abundant, despite large-scale net redemptions in broad-based ETFs, with active interest in industry and thematic ETFs [2][3] Group 2 - The recent market differentiation is characterized by small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, growth stocks outperforming value stocks, and technology and cyclical sectors outperforming stable and consumer sectors [3][4] - The importance of fundamental performance is expected to increase as the market focuses on earnings disclosures, with a notable percentage of companies forecasting positive earnings [5] - High-growth sectors such as computing, communications, lithium batteries, and energy storage are anticipated to experience explosive growth in earnings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market had a strong performance in 2025, with major indices such as the Korean Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and DAX all rising over 20%. The technology and resource sectors emerged as the two main themes driving market growth. Looking ahead to 2026, multiple institutions believe that these sectors will continue to perform actively due to a favorable liquidity environment, ongoing advancements in artificial intelligence, and generally supportive policies [2][3][13]. Group 1: Market Performance in 2025 - In 2025, global stock markets performed exceptionally well, with indices like the Korean Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, DAX, FTSE 100, and Nasdaq all rising over 20%. Additionally, the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and CAC40 rose over 10% [3][14]. - The technology and resource sectors were the most prominent themes in the global stock market, with 398 stocks in the U.S. market alone rising over 100%, primarily concentrated in these sectors [4][15]. - The Korean Composite Index achieved a remarkable 75.63% increase, ranking first among major global markets, driven by significant gains in key components like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which rose 125% and 275%, respectively [4][15]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The strong performance of global markets in 2025 was attributed to three main factors: the Federal Reserve's easing policies reducing funding costs, supportive policies across various countries, and robust capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies [5][16]. - The technology sector, particularly in AI and cloud computing, attracted significant capital due to its disruptive innovation and high growth potential, while resource assets were viewed as a hedge against potential inflation and currency depreciation [5][16]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - As of January 22, 2026, the Korean Composite Index continued to lead with a 17.52% increase, and other indices also showed positive growth. Institutions expect the global stock market to maintain strong performance in 2026, driven by expectations of preventive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a continued favorable liquidity environment [6][17]. - Analysts express optimism for 2026, anticipating a friendly capital market environment due to the U.S. implementing relatively loose fiscal and monetary policies and potential further easing in China [6][17]. - The capital expenditures of major U.S. tech companies are expected to continue rising, providing new momentum for global economic growth [7][18]. Group 4: Investment Themes for 2026 - Multiple institutions predict that the technology and resource sectors will remain key investment themes in 2026, with structural market trends expected to continue [8][19]. - Despite discussions about potential market "bubbles," the current situation is not as extreme as during the internet bubble, with AI expected to remain a key driver for the stock market [9][19]. - The resource sector is anticipated to offer significant investment opportunities, with a focus on identifying and selecting the best opportunities among many [9][19].

长安基金王浩聿：以产业周期视角迎接AI投资浪潮 ◎记者 赵明超 历经苹果产业链崛起、5G爆发及新能源浪潮等多轮产业周期，长安宏观策略混合基金经理王浩聿直 言，"水大才能鱼多"。他沉淀出一套"锚定趋势、验证业绩、敬畏估值"的核心框架。当人工智能成为席 卷全球的科技浪潮时，王浩聿表示这是"20年一遇的大机会"，需要沉下心做好研究与跟踪，才能把握好 这次投资机会。 聚焦产业发展趋势 在担任基金经理前，王浩聿在科技行业深耕多年，覆盖电子、传媒、通信、计算机、机器人等领域，也 逐渐形成了一套完整的投资框架，即从产业发展趋势入手，聚焦行业竞争格局，精选优质公司，通过对 订单和业绩的持续跟踪，结合市场走势和估值水平，对仓位进行灵活调整。 "任何产业趋势背后都有核心驱动力。以苹果产业链为例，很多人在研究苹果产业链时，可能会聚焦供 应链公司的订单业绩情况，但就本质而言，这些其实是产业趋势发展的结果。真正关键的是研究苹果公 司自身的发展逻辑，比如它如何规划产品线、未来手机的创新方向在哪里、TWS耳机为何能实现爆发 式增长、AI手机应该如何设计等，这才是产业链研究的核心。"王浩聿表示。 在锚定方向后，王浩聿会从竞争格局、订单及业绩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, leading to a loss of profitability for public funds in the fourth quarter of 2025, marking the first loss after seven consecutive profitable quarters. However, the overall annual profit reached a record 2.6 trillion yuan, recovering losses from previous years [3][6]. Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, public funds reported a total loss of approximately 1.1 billion yuan, ending a streak of profitability. Despite this, the annual profit of 2.6 trillion yuan set a historical record, covering cumulative losses of 1.87 trillion yuan from 2022 to 2023 [6][8]. - Equity funds were the hardest hit in Q4, with a combined loss of 1.81 trillion yuan, while mixed funds also faced losses. In contrast, bond and money market funds continued to perform well, contributing significantly to overall profits [6][9]. Fund Adjustments - Public funds actively adjusted their holdings in response to market conditions, increasing their positions in technology and cyclical sectors. Notably, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding among active funds [3][11]. - The top ten heavy stocks saw minimal changes in total market value, but individual rankings shifted significantly, with Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng surpassing Guizhou Moutai in holdings [12][13]. Sector Focus - The electronic sector emerged as the largest area of investment for public funds, with a total market value of 741 billion yuan. The power equipment sector followed closely, while the communication sector became the third-largest focus, overtaking the pharmaceutical sector [17]. - Public funds increased their positions in oil, non-bank financials, and metals, with significant additions in stocks like Industrial Bank and China Petroleum [15][16]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while sectors like new consumption and AI show strong fundamentals, valuation concerns may arise due to market liquidity tightening. Dividend investments are expected to perform better in 2026 compared to the previous year [17].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）近期A股整体呈现震荡上行格局，市场成交维持高位，赚钱效应明 显修复。与此同时，主要宽基指数涨跌互现，市场风格分化进一步加剧。代表大盘蓝筹的上证50和沪深 300指数表现较弱，而中证500和中证1000等中小盘指数则大幅领涨。逆周期调节政策落地后，春季行情 将如何演绎？市场结构性分化会否延续？请看本周机构研判。 中信证券：市场信心持续恢复中 消费链的增配时点就是当下 近期宽基ETF的赎回规模继续放大，在此背景下，不同行业和个股的承接力相差较大。从结构上来看， 主动型机构超配的板块和个股在宽基ETF赎回潮中反而超额收益更明显。往后看，市场信心处于持续恢 复过程中，只要估值处于相对低位、具备增长逻辑且非宽基权重股的行业，预计都将出现修复。其中消 费链的增配时点就是当下到3月前后，地产链亦可能在此阶段发生明显修复。 此外，在"资源+传统制造定价权重估"的基本思路下，围绕化工、有色、新能源、电力设备构建的基础 组合，仍然是优先配置方向。在此基础上，投资者可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分内需 品种（如免税、航空、建材等）或高景气品种（半导体设备、材 ...