会上，五矿证券副总经理、研究所所长杨诚笑应邀发表《反转将至——碳酸锂2026年供需格局展望》专题报告，从投研视角系统研判锂市场周期 演变与未来竞争格局。 转自：新华财经 11月25日，2025第二届中国国际锂业大会在四川成都成功举办。本次会议由中国有色金属工业协会主办，以"锂聚全球，链动未来"为主题，聚 焦"稳供给、强链条、促创新、谋共赢"四大核心议题，同来自全球锂电产业的政府代表、专家学者、企业嘉宾及国际机构负责人等400多位嘉宾， 共商在能源转型背景下锂电产业的发展路径与协作机制，共筑应对行业周期挑战和可持续发展的新格局。中国有色金属工业协会党委书记、会长 葛红林，四川省人大常委会副主任何礼，中国盐湖工业集团有限公司董事长薛飞等嘉宾出席会议并致辞。 展望2026年，他表示全球锂资源供给正经历结构性调整。纵观全球，智利未来增长依赖SQM单一项目，阿根廷产能将于2025–2026年集中释放，但 随后增速将显著放缓；澳洲、巴西受资本开支放缓与债务压力制约，增长乏力。非洲虽具潜力，但产量高度依赖价格与政策。 杨诚笑在发言最后总结说，在锂电产业迈向高质量增长的关键阶段，专业、前瞻、深度的投研洞察正成为引领行业和产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference successfully held in Chengdu, Sichuan, focused on the development path and collaboration mechanisms of the lithium battery industry under the energy transition context, with over 400 participants from the global lithium industry [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - The lithium market is expected to gradually stabilize in 2025, characterized by "super resilience" in supply and a bottoming out of prices, with structural highlights in demand [5] - By 2026, global lithium supply is undergoing structural adjustments, with significant contributions expected from domestic Chinese sources, African lithium mines, and Argentine salt lakes, potentially increasing China's share of global lithium supply from 24% to 28% [5][6] - The supply growth in Chile is heavily reliant on a single project by SQM, while Argentina's capacity will peak between 2025 and 2026 before slowing down significantly [5] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Energy storage is emerging as the "second engine" for lithium battery growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% over the next decade, indicating substantial room for market expansion [6] - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China may slow down due to policy changes, while Europe is expected to maintain stable growth supported by new product cycles [6] - The commercial vehicle sector faces challenges, with anticipated growth rates declining due to policy rollbacks and limitations in electric heavy truck applications [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The lithium carbonate market is predicted to enter a tight balance phase in 2026, leading to an average price level higher than that of 2025, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and cost structures [6] - The conference highlighted the importance of professional and forward-looking research insights in guiding the lithium industry through cycles and restructuring competitive landscapes [7] - The company aims to leverage its central enterprise background and integrated financial services to provide strategic guidance for capital allocation and industry development, positioning itself as a catalyst for the lithium industry's transition to high-quality growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic acquisition of Zhongke Hualian by Enjie Co., aiming to strengthen the supply chain integration and enhance its core business in the lithium battery industry, despite facing financial losses in recent quarters [2][3][5][12]. Group 1: Company Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Enjie Co. reported revenue of approximately 9.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 27.8%, but incurred a loss of approximately 86.32 million, a decline of about 119% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin for the same period was 15.9%, down 5.07%, while the net margin was -1.19%, a decrease of 7.19% year-on-year [5]. - The 2024 annual report indicates a revenue of approximately 10.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 15.6%, with a loss of 555.6 million and a non-recurring net loss of 613 million [5]. Group 2: Strategic Moves - Enjie Co. is not halting its expansion despite losses; it is pursuing the acquisition of Zhongke Hualian and has initiated a second phase of a 1.6 billion square meter separator project in Yunnan, with a total investment of about 4.5 billion [6][7]. - The company also announced the early redemption of its convertible bonds issued in 2020, which could dilute earnings per share in the short term [8] . Group 3: Industry Context - The acquisition of Zhongke Hualian is seen as a move to enhance upstream control, as the company is a key player in the separator equipment sector, providing automated solutions that are in high demand [9][10]. - Zhongke Hualian has established production bases and is set to produce 800 million square meters of high-performance wet lithium battery separators annually after the completion of its new production lines [11]. - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery, with leading companies seeking to optimize technology and strengthen supply chain control amid a competitive landscape [12].

2025（第十届）起点锂电行业年会暨锂电金鼎奖颁奖典礼 &起点研究十周年庆典 2025起点用户侧储能及电池技术论坛 活动主题： 新周期 新技术 新生态 活动时间： 2025年12月18-19日 活动地址： 深圳市维纳斯皇家酒店（深圳国际会展中心京基百纳店）三楼维纳斯厅（深圳市宝安区沙井 镇沙井路118号） 主办单位： 起点锂电、起点固态电池、起点储能、起点研究院SPIR 活动规模： 线下1200+，在线直播观看30000+ 倒计时17天 第一批赞助及演讲单位： 海辰储能/融捷能源/瑞浦兰钧/逸飞激光/鹏辉能源/赣锋锂电/多氟多/保力新/ 远东电池/国轩吉美泰/诺达智慧/创明新能源/德赛电池/陀普科技/蓝京新能源/北测新能源/亿鑫丰/达力 智能/金力股份/苏州莫洛奇/鑫晟达/先导智能/尚太科技/超业精密/科迈罗/东唐智能/贤辰智享/爱签/中 天和/和明机械/信瑞新能源/亿纬锂能/派能科技/移族/新日股份/弘正储能/亮见钠电/易事特等 近日，福建省财政厅、科技厅下达2025年度省创新实验室建设运行补助经费。其中，宁德时代创新实验室获得建设补助经费1.26亿元、运行 补助经费0.5亿元，合计1.76亿元。 宁德时代 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Analyst Conference and the 7th Sina Finance "Golden Unicorn" Best Analyst Awards Ceremony took place on November 28, gathering over 300 authoritative scholars, public and private fund leaders, listed company chairpersons, top fund managers, and chief analysts in Shanghai to discuss future opportunities in the Chinese capital market [1] - The Longjiang Securities research team led by Wu Bohua was awarded the first place in the Best Analyst category for the New Energy Vehicles and Components industry at the 7th Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Awards [1] Group 2 - The weekly perspective from Longjiang Securities on power equipment and new energy highlights the ongoing high growth logic of lithium storage and emphasizes the performance catalysts in the wind power sector [2] - The report covers various aspects of the photovoltaic industry, including price changes in the supply chain, progress in silicon material mergers and acquisitions, energy consumption standards, and advancements in new technologies such as slurry and BC [2] - In the energy storage segment, the report discusses high-frequency production and bidding, price changes, the introduction of domestic policies related to the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the impact of US-China tariffs and trade policies [2] - The lithium battery section focuses on solid-state research trends, weekly changes in new energy vehicle sales, and expectations for price increases across the supply chain [2] - The wind power analysis includes attention to the 14th Five-Year Plan, deep-sea progress, domestic and international offshore wind construction, and the recovery of wind turbine profitability [3] - The power equipment analysis emphasizes the further approval of ultra-high voltage projects, large engineering project plans and bidding situations, and data on imports and exports [3] - New directions of interest include developments in the humanoid robot supply chain, domestic chip catalysts, advancements in AIDC technology, and the development of AI applications [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a recovery trend this week, with major indices posting weekly gains, particularly small-cap and micro-cap stocks, with the ChiNext Index and the Guozheng 2000 Index both rising over 4% [1] - The market is expected to face challenges in the coming weeks due to a performance vacuum and policy vacuum typical of year-end periods, leading to reduced upward momentum [2] Macro Events - Three significant macro events are anticipated in December: 1. The Central Political Bureau meeting, which has historically been held in early December [3] 2. The Central Economic Work Conference, typically convened in mid-December [4] 3. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announcement on December 11 [5] Market Dynamics - The market is likely to experience volatility until early December, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing two key resistance levels: the gap from November 21 and the mid-level high of 3967 points from November 20 [6] - The recent drop in trading volume, with the A-share market's turnover falling below 2 trillion yuan for 11 consecutive trading days since November 14, indicates a prevailing cautious sentiment among investors [2] Sector Opportunities - The recovery in the market has been characterized by sector-specific rebounds, particularly in areas with catalytic factors such as lithium batteries and AI hardware [8] - Notable sectors for potential investment include: 1. AI applications and commercial aerospace, both of which have shown strong performance recently [9] 2. The lithium and energy storage sectors, which are experiencing price increases and innovation [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious, especially in the latter half of next week, and to consider preserving gains from the year if their trading capabilities are limited [10] - The focus should be on core stocks within the identified sectors, as sustained leadership is crucial for the continuation of sector rallies [10]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.89% and a current increase of 0.76% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include phosphate chemicals, rubber additives, lithium batteries, and coatings, with notable gains from Hebang Bio, Tongcheng New Materials, and Sankeshu [1][2] - The chemical ETF has shown a year-to-date increase of 27.76%, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (16.02%) and the CSI 300 Index (15.04%) [1][3] Group 2 - The lithium battery market is expected to see a threefold increase in shipments from 2025 to 2035, with rising prices anticipated due to supply shortages [4] - The current price-to-book ratio of the chemical ETF is 2.32, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade, suggesting good long-term investment potential [4] - The chemical sector is currently at a valuation and profit bottom, with a net profit of 116 billion yuan expected in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.45% [4] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and focusing on large-cap leading stocks [5] - Nearly 50% of the ETF's holdings are concentrated in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, while the remaining 50% includes leaders in phosphate, fluorine, and nitrogen fertilizers [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of the renewable energy industry, highlighting the rapid growth in demand and supply, as well as the challenges faced by the industry in terms of profitability and competition. Group 1: Current Industry Status - Since 2020, the global "carbon neutrality" initiative has led to significant growth in the renewable energy sector, with an expected addition of nearly 600GW of solar capacity by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33% over the past five years [6] - The rapid expansion of supply in the solar sector has resulted in a significant drop in capacity utilization rates, with some segments, such as silicon materials, falling below 50% [7] - The electric vehicle (EV) sector has driven explosive growth in the lithium battery supply chain, with global lithium battery penetration increasing from 2% in 2018 to over 20% by mid-2025 [7] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of China's Renewable Energy Industry - China's renewable energy industry exhibits strong global competitiveness, characterized by leading technology, with a self-controlled solar and lithium battery supply chain that outperforms global standards [8] - The production capacity of solar and lithium battery segments in China accounts for 70%-90% of the global total [9] - Domestic products benefit from a cost advantage due to favorable production factors, creating a low-cost moat [10] Group 3: Profitability Challenges - The renewable energy sector is currently facing profitability pressures due to overcapacity, with solar manufacturing companies experiencing significant net profit losses despite some recovery in Q3 2025 [11] - The lithium battery industry has seen a decline in profitability since its peak in 2022, but improvements in both volume and price are expected to continue into Q3 2025 [11] Group 4: Future Development and New Growth Points - The industry is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a focus on energy storage solutions to address consumption issues [12] - The penetration rate of renewable energy generation has reached approximately 20%, leading to rigid demand for energy storage due to mismatches in supply and demand [15] - The introduction of a continuous settlement mechanism in the spot market by the end of 2025 is expected to expand arbitrage opportunities for energy storage [16] Group 5: International Expansion and Market Opportunities - The overseas wind power market is projected to grow rapidly, with significant increases in installed capacity expected in regions such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America [23] - The demand for energy storage and transformers in the U.S. is anticipated to surge, with estimated total storage capacity demand reaching 1199GWh from 2025 to 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 56% [25] - Companies are increasingly seeking international markets, with expectations of rising overseas revenue proportions, particularly for companies like Dajin Heavy Industry [24] Group 6: Innovations and New Technologies - Solid-state batteries are emerging as a new growth point, offering advantages such as higher energy density and safety [28] - The development of BC (Bifacial Cell) technology is expected to become mainstream, with significant production capacity anticipated by the end of 2025 [30] - AI-driven energy storage solutions are projected to see increased demand in North America, with potential annual storage needs reaching 200GWh from 2025 to 2030 [34]

Core Viewpoint - Enjie Co., Ltd. is acquiring 100% equity of Qingdao Zhongke Hualian New Materials Co., Ltd. to strengthen its upstream capabilities in the lithium battery separator industry, amidst a recovering market and efforts to combat "involution" in the industry [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Enjie plans to issue shares to purchase Zhongke Hualian and raise matching funds, with a deadline to disclose the transaction plan by December 15 [2][3]. - Zhongke Hualian specializes in the research, development, and production of lithium-ion battery separator manufacturing equipment, providing automated production line solutions [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery, with rising demand and prices for upstream materials since October, including increases of 6.35% for electrolyte and 3.74% for lithium iron phosphate [5][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to regulate competition and promote high-quality development in the lithium battery sector [5][6]. Group 3: Company Performance - Enjie reported a net loss of 556 million yuan in 2024, marking its first loss since listing, while revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 was 9.543 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.85% [4]. - The company has seen a recovery in its third-quarter performance, with revenue and net profit increasing by 24.6% and 105.7% respectively [4]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The separator industry is facing intense competition, with prices declining due to increased supply and cost control measures from downstream battery manufacturers [3][4]. - Enjie aims to reduce equipment procurement and production line construction costs through this acquisition, enhancing product consistency and capacity flexibility [3][5].

一、电池 A公司：12月排产预期77.5GWh，环比增长3%； B公司：12月排产预期27.5GWh，环比增长2%； C公司：12月排产预期12.1GWh，环比持平； D公司：12月排产预期0.9GWh，环比持平； E公司：12月排产预期12.2GWh，环比持平。 F公司：12月排产预期13.2GWh，环比增长2%。 二、正极 A公司：12月排产预期1.525万吨，环比增长1%； B公司：12月排产预期1.25万吨，环比持平； C公司：12月排产预期0.82万吨，环比持平； D公司：12月排产预期11万吨，环比持平； E公司：12月排产预期1.23万吨，环比下降2%。 F公司：12月排产预期2.9万吨，环比持平。 三、负极 A公司：12月排产预期1.4万吨，环比持平； B公司：12月排产预期5.3万吨，环比持平； C公司：12月排产预期5.4万吨，环比持平； D公司：12月排产预期3.3万吨，环比持平。 四、隔膜 A公司：12月排产预期10.8亿平，环比增长4%； B公司：12月排产预期4.3亿平，环比下降2%； C公司：12月排产预期4.7亿平，环比增长4%。 五、电解液 A公司：12月排产预期7.55万吨 ...