Market Overview - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 2.43% on October 30, with Li Tong Technology leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the rubber sector included: - Sanlisi (002224) with a closing price of 4.49, up 1.58% on a trading volume of 436,400 shares and a turnover of 197 million yuan [1] - Sanwei Equipment (920834) closed at 16.76, up 1.39% with a trading volume of 86,500 shares and a turnover of 146 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Li Tong Technology (920225) which fell 13.10% to a closing price of 37.28, with a trading volume of 126,500 shares and a turnover of 515 million yuan [2] - Zhen'an Technology (300767) decreased by 12.77% to 21.85, with a trading volume of 363,800 shares and a turnover of 841 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The rubber sector saw a net outflow of 132 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 16.56 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 149 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Zhen'an Technology (300767) had a net inflow of 13.71 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors faced a net outflow of 80.84 million yuan [3] - Sanwei Equipment (300731) saw a net inflow of 6.57 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 26.70 million yuan [3] - Longxing Technology (002442) had a net outflow of 1.96 million yuan from institutional investors, while speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 1.93 million yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall risk preference in the crude oil market has improved, and oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. The prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - factors on oil prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.33 to $60.48 per barrel (0.55% increase), Brent December contract rose $0.52 to $64.92 per barrel (0.81% increase), and SC2512 closed at 465.1 yuan per barrel, up 5.9 yuan (1.28% increase). EIA inventory data showed a comprehensive decline in inventories. Mexican national oil company's production decreased year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates, and the subsequent rate - cut path is uncertain. The market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. The Asian low - sulfur market structure weakened due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply, while the high - sulfur market is expected to remain stable. FU and LU absolute prices will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell. In November, the refinery's asphalt production plan decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory levels all decreased. The supply pressure will ease, and there is still a rush - work expectation in some markets. The BU absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester improved, and the fundamentals of TA improved. However, there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation for EG in the fourth quarter, and its price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil prices [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber contract fell. The social inventory of natural rubber decreased. Due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and good demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4] - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol was reported. The domestic overhauled devices are gradually resuming production, and the overseas Iranian devices will be restricted by winter gas curtailment. The short - term port supply is still abundant, and methanol prices are expected to fluctuate [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the prices of polyolefins were reported. The short - term production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening, and prices are expected to enter a fluctuating stage [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China were reported. The supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under high - inventory pressure [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical varieties on October 29 and 28, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. It also shows the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - US EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate fuel inventories last week exceeded analysts' expectations, forcing the market to re - evaluate the expectation of a large surplus in the oil market [11] - Trump predicted that his talks with Chinese leaders would yield good results. The talks are scheduled for Thursday at a summit in South Korea. The positive news about the Sino - US talks and the US - South Korea trade agreement eased investors' concerns about the economic recession caused by Trump's tariffs and trade wars [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It provides the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It provides the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [25] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as the spread between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts of fuel oil, and the spread between the main and sub - main contracts of asphalt [39] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [55] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It provides the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP from 2018 to 2025 [63] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy - chemical research. With more than ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research, she has won many awards and has rich experience in serving enterprises [67] - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many industry awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [68] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards and is good at data analysis and research on related varieties [69] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and relevant professional qualifications [70]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot prices strong, domestic inventories decreasing, and high tire operating rates [4]. - The basis is -875, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both decreasing, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - The price is running above the 20 - day line while the 20 - day line is downward, showing a neutral state [4]. - The main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions, suggesting a bearish outlook [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) remained flat on October 29th. The basis weakened on October 29th [8][35]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories and Qingdao region inventories are both in a state of continuous destocking [14][17]. - **Import**: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production and tire industry exports have reached new highs for the same period [23][29][32]. Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the market [3]. - For methanol, the slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction lies in the unexpected slow unloading due to previous sanctions and recent weather. Although there are potential bullish factors, the overall market structure is weaker than in previous years. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. - For rubber, the rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. - For polypropylene, the cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 1.40 yuan/barrel, a 0.32% decline, at 437.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decline, at 2647.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 13.00 yuan/ton, a 0.42% decline, at 3072.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased, while diesel inventory decreased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, the short - term oil price is not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 16 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 47. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 2 to - 64 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The slow import unloading process has slowed port inventory accumulation. The market's main contradiction is the unexpected slow unloading. There are potential bullish factors, but the overall market structure is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong and Henan decreased by 10, Hubei remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 9 yuan to 1644 yuan, with a basis of - 55. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at - 73 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side device maintenance is over, and the demand - side compound fertilizer production has increased. The enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed down. The spot price has limited downward space, and there are still some positive factors to be released. It's recommended to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock index and industrial products rose, and the rubber price also increased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes in limited production growth, seasonal price increases, and improved demand expectations; the short - side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, weak demand, and less - than - expected supply benefits. As of October 23, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.29%, and that of semi - steel tires was 74.49%. The semi - steel tire export orders slowed down. As of October 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1050000 tons, a 2.8% decrease [9][10][11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is strong. Short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is suggested [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract increased by 59 yuan to 4775 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4620 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 155 (- 39) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decrease; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 334000 tons (- 27000), and the social inventory was 1035000 tons (+1000) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, but the supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor, and there is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities in the medium - term [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5410 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 5526 yuan/ton, a 116 - yuan decline. The spot price of styrene was 6450 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decline; the closing price of the active contract was 6513 yuan/ton, a 47 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, a 2.63% decrease; the Jiangsu port inventory was 202500 tons, an increase of 60000 tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.77%, a 0.16% decrease [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is at a high level, and the price may stop falling periodically [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7009 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan increase; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan decline. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 514600 tons, a decrease of 14900 tons; the trader inventory was 50000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supports the rebound of crude oil prices. The inventory is being reduced at a high level, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6685 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 638500 tons, a decrease of 40200 tons; the trader inventory was 220000 tons, a decrease of 18600 tons; the port inventory was 66800 tons, a decrease of 1100 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 34 yuan to 6652 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 dollars to 818 dollars. The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. In mid - and early October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 256000 tons, a 19000 - ton increase year - on - year [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. The inventory is difficult to continuously reduce, and it mainly follows the fluctuation of crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 4636 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 4535 yuan. The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. On October 24, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2201000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply - side maintenance has decreased, and there is a slight inventory accumulation. The demand - side polyester load is expected to remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. The PXN is under pressure [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 31 yuan to 4100 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan to 4152 yuan. The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 91.4%, unchanged. The import arrival forecast was 198000 tons, and the East China departure on October 28 was 850 tons. The port inventory was 523000 tons, a decrease of 56000 tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is high, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It's recommended to consider short - position opportunities [32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability on the current market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Log: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, natural rubber, pulp, log, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. Spot cotton prices were stable, and the Xinjiang cotton purchase price was slightly stronger, raising new cotton costs. As of October 26, the national cumulative cotton inspection volume was 135.55 million tons. The peak season was weak, with insufficient new orders for cotton yarn spinning enterprises. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was a rebound with limited space. It's recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start squeezing, with expected increased production. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was relatively strong, with potential syrup import control. The market focused on the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. High - quality apples' prices were stable, while low - quality ones were weak. High - quality apples were in short supply, and low - quality ones had inventory pressure. The market focused on cold - storage inventory. National apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production might be adjusted down. New - season cold - storage initial inventory might be higher than expected. It's recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Stimulated by the news of Sino - US leaders' meeting, RU&NR fluctuated up, and BR first declined then rose. Global natural rubber supply was in the high - yield period. Last week, domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rose slightly. Tire operating rate recovered slightly, and product inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased, while butadiene rubber social inventory increased. The strategy is to bet on a rebound and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly today. As of October 23, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.055 billion tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year. Supply was relatively loose, and demand was average. It's recommended to wait and see or do short - term operations [6] Log - The futures price was weak. Spot prices were stable. In October, New Zealand radiata pine quotes increased. Domestic importers' willingness declined. Port outbound volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory was low. Low inventory supported prices. It's recommended to wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and rising slightly. The price closed up 1.56% at 15,625 yuan/ton. Driven by macro and industrial factors, the valuation of the contract is expected to recover [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 on Wednesday showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, being slightly stronger in oscillation, and rising slightly. It closed up 0.22% at 2,257 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the cost - logic support offset the weak supply - demand structure of domestic methanol, leading to an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 on Wednesday showed a trend of increasing volume but decreasing positions, being slightly weaker in oscillation, and falling slightly. It closed down 0.81% at 462.6 yuan/barrel. After the previous bullish geopolitical factors were gradually digested, the oil market shifted to a market dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 68,700 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 363,500 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [7]. - In the week of October 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly due to early snowfall in some regions and the recovery of all - steel tire production [7]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The new order index of logistics enterprises was 53.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, remaining above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67%, a month - on - month increase of 3.20%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The average weekly methanol output in China was 1.9435 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,800 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 73,600 tons [9]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 8.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The acetic acid operating rate was 73.61%, a week - on - week increase of 2%. The MTBE operating rate was 56.50%, a week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.42%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 111 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 22 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2698 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 308,100 tons. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 360,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 76,500 tons [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 418, unchanged from the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.629 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 700 barrels/day and a year - on - year increase of 129,000 barrels/day [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 423 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 961,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.231 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 770,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 408.56 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 819,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 88.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 percentage points [11]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a 15.65% decrease from the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of October 21, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 51,791 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 58,520 contracts and a 76.06% decrease from the September average of 216,355 contracts [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,750 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 15,625 yuan/ton | +265 yuan/ton | - 875 yuan/ton | - 265 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,232 yuan/ton | - 18 yuan/ton | 2,257 yuan/ton | +16 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 433.4 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 462.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | - 29.3 yuan/barrel | 0 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][21][24] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][31][29][33][35] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][44][40][46][42][48]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, due to large temperature differences between day and night, the dry rubber content drops rapidly, and raw material prices are rising. In Hainan, continuous rainfall restricts tapping operations, and raw material production is slow. Some processing plants are eager to purchase raw materials at higher prices [2]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The reduction in the general trade warehouse has narrowed. Overseas standard rubber arrivals continue to decline, and the bonded warehouse in Qingdao shows a slight inventory reduction. The increase in the arrival and storage of mixed rubber is in line with expectations, but tire factories' purchases are mostly on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - Last week, the production schedules of domestic tire enterprises mostly returned to normal levels, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Semi - steel tire enterprises are expected to maintain high production enthusiasm, and all - steel tire enterprises' production schedules are expected to remain stable. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12500 - 12800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15625 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12720 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2905 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146189 lots, up 2108 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 40039 lots, down 6433 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 23073 lots, up 3872 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8299 lots, up 2453 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 122890 tons, up 320 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 44253 tons, down 201 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1880 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1880 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14950 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 is 11400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13219 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 689 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.06 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 56.15 Thai baht/kg, up 1.26 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 53.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 182.4 US dollars/ton, down 38.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51 US dollars/ton, down 0.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 12.26 million tons, up 0.95 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 31.75 million tons, up 4.91 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.58%, up 1.06 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, up 0.95 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.34 days, up 0.39 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.26 days, up 0.09 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 0.11 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.48%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.48%, down 0.61 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.85%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.84%, up 0.39 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of November 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in Vietnam and southern Thailand affected tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in southern Indonesia and eastern Malaysia had a slightly reduced impact on tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon [2]. - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 432,200 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.20%. The bonded area inventory was 68,700 tons, a decrease of 1.29%; the general trade inventory was 363,500 tons, a decrease of 1.18% [2]. - As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.84 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.87%, a month - on - month increase of 1.91 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.95 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the opening rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

Market Overview - The rubber sector experienced a decline of 0.56% on October 29, with Tian Tie Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38, up 1.95% [1] Stock Performance - Li Tong Technology saw a significant increase of 30.00%, closing at 42.90, with a trading volume of 139,900 shares and a transaction value of 536 million [1] - Other notable gainers included Sanwei Equipment (+5.35%), Keqiang Co. (+3.73%), and Zhongyu Technology (+3.53%) [1] - Tian Tie Technology, however, fell by 2.53%, closing at 7.72, with a trading volume of 194,600 shares and a transaction value of 152 million [2] Capital Flow - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 113 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 87.95 million [2] - The main funds showed a negative net flow in several stocks, including Sanwei Co. and Tian Tie Technology, indicating a cautious sentiment among institutional investors [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Ke Chuang Xin Yuan had a net inflow of 44.34 million from main funds, but also saw a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Longxing Technology and Yongdong Co. experienced mixed capital flows, with retail investors showing some interest despite overall negative trends in main fund flows [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR, as well as BR, are both neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for natural rubber remains strong, but in the peak - season, the supply is expected to increase. The overall supply - demand in China may show a pattern of both supply and demand booming. If the arrival volume rebounds later, the depletion of domestic social inventory will slow down or even accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR in China are low, and prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities for the month - spread. For BR, the cost is dragged down by the decline in butadiene prices, but there are still many device overhauls, and the supply - side support is expected to remain. The supply - demand may improve to some extent, and the downward adjustment space is expected to be limited [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,805 yuan/ton, a change of - 190 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,880 US dollars/ton, with no change; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,770 US dollars/ton, with no change. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Market Information Heavy - truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, setting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 199,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 111,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 30,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export of natural rubber to China was 75,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 45,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China was 9,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 19,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 728,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 702,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. Calculated by the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] EU Passenger Car Market - In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, the RU basis was - 660 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 380 yuan/ton (+0), the import profit of smoked sheets was - 3340 yuan/ton (- 3340.25), the NR basis was 791.00 yuan/ton (+5.00); the price of whole latex was 14,700 yuan/ton (+0), the price of mixed rubber was 14,980 yuan/ton (- 20), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,880 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3580 yuan/ton (- 20) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.06 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai latex was 55.00 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the difference between Thai latex and cup lump was 1.65 Thai baht/kg (+0.30) [5] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 124,020 tons (- 10,980), and the NR futures inventory was 42,640 tons (+2,521) [6] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On October 28, 2025, the BR basis was - 5 yuan/ton (+190), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,300 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,650 yuan/ton (- 30), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 2040 yuan/ton (- 100) [6] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 71.71% (- 2.12%) [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - Select some varieties from each sector to provide options strategies and recommendations [9]. - Write options strategy reports for each options variety according to the analysis of the underlying market, research on options factors, and options strategy recommendations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The futures prices of most energy and chemical products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of crude oil SC2512 dropped by 8 to 458, a decline of 1.78%; the price of synthetic rubber BR2512 dropped by 285 to 10,585, a decline of 2.62%. Only the price of rubber RU2601 increased by 10 to 15,395, an increase of 0.06% [4]. 3.2 Options Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The PCR indicators of different options varieties showed different trends. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil increased by 0.14 to 0.86, and the position PCR decreased by 0.01 to 0.81; the volume PCR of methanol increased by 0.26 to 0.84, and the position PCR decreased by 0.02 to 0.51 [5]. 3.3 Options Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Different options varieties have different pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 590, and the support level is 440; the pressure level of methanol is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [6]. 3.4 Options Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options varieties also showed different trends. For example, the weighted implied volatility of crude oil decreased by 1.69 to 30.31; the weighted implied volatility of methanol increased by 1.00 to 19.46 [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - Related Options: Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production only decreased by 10,000 barrels per day. OPEC exports have increased, but most of them are absorbed by China, so there is no obvious visible inventory in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory is in a low - level destocking state, the crude oil inventory has increased, but the refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and the diesel crack spread remains high [8]. - Market analysis: Since July, the crude oil market has gradually weakened and then consolidated in a range. In August, it first rose and then fell, showing a short - term weak shock. In September, it continued to be weak and bearish and then gradually rebounded. In October, it fell sharply and then stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options has decreased to near the average. The position PCR of options is reported at around 0.80, indicating that the crude oil market has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 590, and the support level is 440 [8]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - Related Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: The US is under great pressure due to high production and high inventory. Extreme weather in winter and the trend of Sino - US trade will affect its price and trade flow. At present, the total export volume from the Middle East is relatively stable, and OPEC+ policies and actual production increases will affect future exports [10]. - Market analysis: In July, LPG reached a high and then fell back, continuously declining and then weakly consolidating. Since August, it has accelerated its decline, moved downward bearishly, then rebounded and rose but was blocked and fell back. In September, it first fell and then rose, gradually warming up. Overall, it shows an oversold rebound market with pressure above [10]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly decreased and returned to near the lower - than - average level. The position PCR of LPG options is reported at around 0.80, indicating that the LPG market has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 4550, and the support level is 4000 [10]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - Related Options: Methanol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory is 1.5122 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,800 tons. The unloading is lower than expected, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The enterprise inventory is 360,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, and it is at a low level compared with the same period last year [10]. - Market analysis: In July, methanol reached a high and then fell back, continuously declining and then fluctuating greatly. Since August, it has gradually weakened and moved downward bearishly. In September, it consolidated at a low level and then rebounded. Since October, it has continued to be weak and bearish. Overall, it shows a weak market trend with pressure above [10]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The position PCR of methanol options is reported below 0.80, indicating that the methanol market has been in a weak and oscillating state recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [10]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option. When the market rebounds to a high strike price, close the position in combination with spot sales [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - Related Options: Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7%. Among them, the load of synthetic gas production was 82.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the load of ethylene production was 68.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.3%. The port inventory is 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons; the inventory days of downstream factories are 13.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 days. In the short term, the arrival volume last week was moderately low, the departure volume increased, and the port inventory is expected to slightly decrease. With the high domestic load and the increase in overseas arrivals, ethylene glycol has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [11]. - Market analysis: In July, ethylene glycol weakly consolidated and oscillated at a low level, gradually rose, and then fell rapidly. In August, it continued to weakly consolidate slightly. Since September, it has continued to be weak and bearish. Overall, it shows a weak market trend with pressure above [11]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The position PCR of options is reported at around 0.70, indicating that the short - selling force of ethylene glycol has been relatively strong recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [11]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time value returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - Related Options: Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 514,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.81%, and an increase of 2.02% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PE traders is 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 638,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.92%, and an increase of 12.69% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP traders is 220,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.80%; the PP port inventory is 66,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%. The overall inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [11]. - Market analysis: Since July, the decline of polypropylene has narrowed, gradually stabilized, slightly oscillated and rebounded, and then rapidly declined. In August, it maintained a weak and slight fluctuation. In September, it continued to be weak and bearish. In October, it accelerated its decline and then oscillated at a low level. Overall, it shows a weak market trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has decreased to near the average level. The position PCR of options is reported at around 0.70, indicating that the polypropylene market has weakened recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 6900, and the support level is 6300 [11]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - Related Options: Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The offer price of the imported rubber market has risen, traders have rotated stocks, and the factory's inventory - building sentiment has been weak. The futures market has maintained a relatively strong oscillating pattern, and the spot price of domestic natural rubber has followed the market up. The downstream procurement willingness has been relatively weak, mainly replenishing goods with appropriate rigid demand. The overall trading atmosphere in the market has been average, and the actual transaction performance has been light [12]. - Market analysis: Since July, the rubber market has continued to rise in the short term, reached a high, and then fell back. In August, it gradually warmed up and rose and then consolidated and oscillated in a range. Since September, it has maintained a weak and bearish trend. In October, it continued to be weak and consolidated at a low level. Overall, it shows a weak consolidation market trend with support below and pressure above [12]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has risen rapidly and then decreased to near the lower - than - average level. The position PCR of rubber options is reported below 0.60. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying has dropped significantly to 17,000, and the support level is 14,000 [12]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - Related Options: PTA - Fundamental analysis: The PTA load is 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. In terms of equipment, the load of Yisheng Ningbo has slightly decreased, and the load of individual equipment has recovered. The maintenance volume of PTA in October has slightly decreased, and the overall load is low under low processing fees [12]. - Market analysis: In July, the PTA market continued to be weak and then rebounded and rose. In August, it fell back, slightly consolidated, and then rapidly rebounded, rose, and was blocked and fell back. In September, it continued to be weak and bearish. Overall, it shows a weak and bearish market trend with pressure above [12]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level above the average. The position PCR of PTA options is reported at around 0.70, indicating that the PTA market has been in an oscillating state recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [12]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put options combination strategy to obtain options time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - Related Options: Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: In the spot market, non - aluminum industries have no obvious inventory - building behavior, which is lower than expected, or they are waiting for the spot price to bottom out to stimulate speculative demand. Secondly, as the maintenance is restored, the spot support may weaken. The price of liquid chlorine has risen, weakening the cost support [13]. - Market analysis: In July, caustic soda first rose and then fell. In August, it quickly fell back, then gradually rebounded, moved upward bullishly in the short term, and then oscillated at a high level. Since September, it has continuously reported negative lines and gradually weakened. In October, it accelerated its decline. Overall, it shows a weak and bearish market trend with pressure above recently [13]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The position PCR of caustic soda options is reported below 0.80, indicating that the caustic soda market has been in a weak and oscillating state recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 2600, and the support level is 2240 [13]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread combination strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - Related Options: Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: As of October 25, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash is 1.7021 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons; the available inventory days are 14.11 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 days. The in - factory inventory of heavy soda ash is 93.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62 yuan/ton; the in - factory inventory of light soda ash is 76.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 yuan/ton [13]. - Market analysis: Since August, the soda ash market has continued to be weak and consolidated. In September, it fluctuated slightly at a low level and was weak. In October, it continued to be weak. Recently, it shows a low - level weak oscillating market trend with support below [13]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high level in history. The position PCR of soda ash options is reported below 0.60, indicating that the bearish pressure is relatively strong. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of the underlying is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [13]. - Strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy to obtain volatility returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.10 Other Energy - Chemical Options: Urea - Fundamental analysis: The enterprise inventory is 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, and it is at a high level compared with the same period last year. The port inventory is 210,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 236,000 tons, and the goods are accelerating to leave the port [14]. - Market analysis: In July, the urea market oscillated widely in a range under the bearish pressure line and then rose rapidly. In August, it continued to fluctuate widely in a range. In September, it gradually weakened. In October, it oscillated weakly at a low level. Overall, it shows a low - level oscillating and weak market trend [14]. - Options factor research: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average level