【隔夜行情】 •周四（2025年4月18日），A股三大股指涨跌互现，截至收盘，上证综指涨0.13%，报3280.34点；科创 50指数涨0.23%，报1016.81点；深证成指跌0.16%，报9759.05点；创业板指涨0.09%，报1908.78点。沪 深两市成交总额9995亿元，较前一交易日的11119亿元减少1124亿元。 •周四（2025年4月18日），港股三大指数强势反弹，恒科指一度涨超2%。截止收盘，恒生指数涨1.61% 或338.16点，报21395.14点，全日成交额1924.11亿港元；恒生国企指数涨1.52%，报7897.44点；恒生科 技指数涨1.9%，报4887.37点。 【重要新闻】 【六部门印发《促进和规范金融业数据跨境流动合规指南》 进一步明确数据出境的具体情形以及可跨 境流动的数据项清单】4月17日，央行等六部门联合印发《促进和规范金融业数据跨境流动合规指 南》，旨在促进中外资金融机构金融业数据跨境流动更加高效、规范，进一步明确数据出境的具体情形 以及可跨境流动的数据项清单，便利数据跨境流动。《指南》要求金融机构采取必要的数据安全保护管 理和技术措施切实保障数据安全。下一步，中 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on domestic demand recovery, driven by continuous policy support and improving real estate data [2][3] - The retail sector shows significant recovery, with March retail sales growing by 5.9% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [1][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for the home furnishing sector to rebound, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector - In the first three months of 2025, total retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with notable growth in furniture (+18.1%), cultural office supplies (+21.7%), cosmetics (+3.2%), and gold and silver jewelry (+6.9%) [1] - March retail sales alone saw a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with furniture and cultural office supplies experiencing growth rates of 29.5% and 21.5%, respectively [1][6] Real Estate Sector - The report notes a decline in new housing starts, completions, sales, and residential development investment in the first quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 23.9%, 14.7%, 2.0%, and 9.0%, respectively [1][2] - March data shows a continued decline in new housing starts (-18.6%) and completions (-8.1%), but a slight improvement in sales (-1.2%) [1][2] Policy Impact - The government has released favorable signals for the real estate market, including measures to stabilize housing prices and enhance consumer confidence [2][3] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" emphasizes support for upgrading consumer goods and encourages the replacement of old products, which is expected to stimulate demand in the home furnishing sector [3][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and ZBOM, which are expected to capture market share from smaller competitors [7] - In the cultural office supplies sector, companies like Morning Glory are highlighted for their strong channel advantages and innovative product offerings [7] - The cosmetics sector is also noted for its growth potential, with domestic brands expected to gain market share through diverse product strategies [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook on domestic demand recovery, driven by supportive policies and improving real estate data [2][3] - The retail sector shows significant recovery, with March retail sales growth at 5.9%, surpassing expectations [1][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for the home furnishing sector to rebound due to policy support and consumer demand [3][7] Summary by Sections Retail Data - In the first three months of 2025, total retail sales increased by 4.6% year-on-year, with March showing a 5.9% increase, exceeding the consensus forecast of 4.36% [1] - Specific categories such as furniture, cultural office supplies, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry saw growth rates of 18.1%, 21.7%, 3.2%, and 6.9% respectively [1] - Online retail sales growth was recorded at 7.9% in the first quarter, indicating a steady increase in online consumption [6] Real Estate Data - National residential new construction area, completion area, sales area, and development investment completed in the first three months of 2025 showed declines of 23.9%, 14.7%, 2.0%, and 9.0% respectively [1] - In March, the new construction area and completion area declined by 18.6% and 8.1% year-on-year, while the sales area decreased by 1.2% [1][2] Policy Impact - The government has released favorable signals to stabilize the real estate market, including measures to optimize housing provident fund policies [2][3] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" emphasizes support for upgrading consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate demand in the home furnishing sector [3][7] Investment Recommendations - For the home furnishing sector, the report recommends companies like Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, anticipating steady growth driven by policy support and consumer demand [7] - In the cultural office supplies sector, it suggests Morning Glory Co., which is expected to benefit from collective procurement policies [7] - The cosmetics sector is highlighted for its potential growth, recommending domestic brands like Runben and Pechoin [7] - Gold and silver jewelry consumption is expected to remain strong, with recommendations for companies like Laopu Gold [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 轻工制造行业周报（25 年第 15 周） 优于大市 美国对等关税对轻工行业的影响梳理 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：近期美国"对等关税"政策反复，外销链出现大 幅回调。当前政策仍有博弈空间，考虑到轻工业海外其他地区的产能承接与 替代性较低、美国制造业回流难度较大与关税压力存在转移手段，具备美国 本土产能或品类加价倍率高的代工企业预计短期更安全。 美国"对等关税"政策反复扰动出口市场。4 月 3 日，美国宣布对所有进口 商品普遍性加征 10%"最低基准关税"，同时对与其贸易逆差较大的经济体 征收额外对等关税，其中柬埔寨 49%、越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、日本 24%、欧盟 20%，符合美墨加贸易协定的商 品免征关税。4 月 9 日，美国进一步宣布继续对我国产品加税至 125%，同时 对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关税暂缓。本次美国对全球征税范围广、 幅度大，超出市场预期，高税额地区主要为我国与我国转口贸易地东南亚， 目前政策尚有博弈空间，若政策落地无论是国内直接出口或是转口贸易预计 均将受到较大冲击。 轻工外销公 ...

文 | 《BUG》栏目 罗宁 近日，红星美凯龙集团发布公开信称，"五一"全民消费在即，红星美凯龙拟全国投入超1个亿用于消费 补贴。公开信表示"我们相信，消费即力量，信心是长城。" 不过，就在这一公开信发布前不久，一起关于红星美凯龙集团原执行总裁高某涉嫌职务侵占罪的二审判 决书正式公开，受到行业高度关注。根据判决书，高某作为项目的主要负责人之一，利用负责外资引入 任务的职务便利，在与交易对方签订合同过程中，将原本10%的服务费增加到13%，套取公司资金501 万元，与谢某七三瓜分，此事暴露出红星美凯龙在企业治理，尤其高管管理方面存在的问题。 而更深层次的危机体现在财报数据中，根据红星美凯龙2024年财报，其营收和利润双双下降。不仅如 此，曾经头顶"中国最大家居卖场"光环的红星美凯龙，如今一方面面临用户信任危机，商户产品质量 差、卷款跑路等投诉屡见不鲜；另一方面，其二股东红星控股因自身债务清偿困境申请破产重组，红星 美凯龙股价也不断受挫，较一年来最高点已经跌去三成。 业内人士指出，随着房地产市场下行，家居行业仍需熬过"苦日子"。 高管职务侵占细节公开 根据裁判文书网对于《谢某，高某职务侵占罪二审刑事裁定书》的公示 ...

A股市场的回购潮仍在继续。4月14日，又有多家上市公司积极行动，或以回购增持等方式"硬核护 盘"，或积极通过各种举措提升对抗风险的能力，携手投资者共筑市场"信心墙"。 根据Wind统计，上周（4月6日至4月12日）共有134家A股上市公司实施回购，回购总金额达49.73亿 元。而2024年同期有72家A股上市公司实施回购，总金额为9.55亿元。 4月14日晚，又有上市公司公布上限为10亿元的大额回购。工业富联发布公告，拟使用不低于5亿元 （含）且不超过10亿元（含）的自有资金，以集中竞价交易方式回购股份，回购价格不超过20元每股， 回购的股份将用于注销以减少注册资本。 国电南瑞也在14日晚公告，公司拟使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购股份，用于公司未来实施股权 激励计划。回购股份金额不低于5亿元（含）、不超过10亿元（含）。回购股份价格不超过34.13元每股 （含）。 这些企业的回购，也是基于自身优异的业绩表现。此前，工业富联发布2025年第一季度业绩快报，预计 营业收入1590亿元—1610亿元，同比增长34%—35.6%；归母净利润52亿元—53亿元，同比增长24.4%— 26.8%，均实现高双位数增长， ...

Core Insights - The export value of domestic home appliances in the first quarter reached $24.165 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] - In contrast, the export value of furniture and its parts was $15.934 billion, down 8% year-on-year, while ceramic products saw a decline of 19.3% to $4.766 billion [1] - The home appliance sector continues to demonstrate manufacturing advantages, maintaining growth despite challenges faced by the furniture and ceramic sectors [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Home appliance exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year in Q1, while furniture exports decreased by 8% and ceramic exports fell by 19.3% [1] - The decline in furniture and ceramic exports has been ongoing, contrasting with the sustained growth in home appliances [1] - Specific categories like spring mattresses and metal office furniture saw significant export growth to the U.S. and the U.K., respectively, with increases of nearly 370% and over 60% [1] Group 2: Market Diversification - Domestic furniture companies are actively seeking to expand into European and other markets due to declining exports to the U.S. and Mexico [2] - Exports of wooden furniture to Vietnam have surged, attributed to Vietnam's economic growth and the establishment of local production facilities by Chinese companies [2] - Companies are exploring new markets such as Europe, Japan, and emerging Southeast Asian markets, but face challenges related to compliance and differing consumer preferences [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant shift in U.S. tariff policy, with tariffs on Chinese goods raised to 145%, while tariffs on other countries are postponed for 90 days at a 10% rate. This creates a favorable environment for leading companies with global production capabilities and efficient management to capture market share [2] - The report anticipates strong performance in H1 financial reports for leading companies due to preemptive orders driven by tariff disruptions, with specific companies like Craft Home, Yongyi Co., and others being closely monitored for their overseas expansion and low valuations [2] Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on the light industry manufacturing sector, emphasizing the advantages of companies with global production and local supply chains [2] Paper Industry - The paper market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with cultural paper prices stable and packaging paper prices showing signs of recovery. Companies like Sun Paper and Wuzhou Special Paper are highlighted for their stable profitability and capacity expansion [3] New Tobacco - The report notes that Smoore's Q1 performance is stable, with revenue growth expected despite increased costs. The company is well-positioned to gain market share due to its compliance and overseas production capabilities [4] Home Furnishing - The real estate sector is expected to improve, with leading home furnishing companies like Mousse and Gujia showing better order growth than the industry average. The report suggests that the home furnishing sector is well-positioned for growth due to supportive policies [4] Consumer Goods - The toy industry is experiencing high demand, with significant participation in trade shows and a focus on innovative products. Companies like Pop Mart are expected to perform well with new product launches [5][6] Packaging - Companies like Yongxin Co. and Yutong Technology are noted for their stable operations, with expectations of price stabilization in the metal packaging sector as demand recovers [7] Electrical Lighting - The report highlights the importance of product innovation and channel expansion for companies like Bull Group, which is expected to accelerate its market presence [8] Two-Wheeled Vehicles - Ninebot's market share is increasing, with strong sales figures reported. The report suggests continued growth in the electric bicycle sector driven by government subsidies [9][10] Gold and Jewelry - Rising gold prices are expected to boost sales of premium gold jewelry, with companies like Chaohongji showing positive sales trends [10] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas supply chain layouts for companies like Anker Innovations, which are expected to benefit from tariff advantages [11] Maternal and Child Products - The report notes significant profit growth for Kid King, driven by improved store performance and a focus on live-streaming e-commerce [12] E-commerce - The report discusses the restructuring of rural commercial ecosystems through AI and supply chain integration, with companies like Huitongda leading the way [13] Beauty Products - The report highlights the growth of top beauty brands on platforms like Douyin, with a focus on innovative marketing strategies [14] IP Retail - The report notes improvements in same-store sales for Miniso, driven by supply chain diversification and IP collaborations [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, particularly those driven by domestic demand, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Sophia, and others [2] - Recent buyback announcements from companies like Yutong Technology and Simoer International reflect confidence in their growth prospects, suggesting opportunities for investment in oversold stocks [2] - The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to gain greater influence in the IP licensing space, particularly in the IP toy industry, as they scale up and improve their product offerings [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.84% compared to a 2.87% drop in the CSI 300 index [16] - Sub-sectors such as home goods, paper, and entertainment products also showed significant declines [16] Home Furnishing - The report notes a narrowing decline in residential sales and construction, with a 1-2 month drop of 17.8% in residential completion and a 3.4% decrease in sales [35] - Companies like Oppein Home and others are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of improving industry dynamics [5] Paper and Packaging - Paper prices have shown mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5387.5 CNY/ton, down 37.5 CNY/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased slightly [5] - The report indicates a 1.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the paper industry in the first two months of the year [70] Consumer Goods - The report suggests a focus on cultural and creative product leaders like Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from a recovering domestic consumption environment [5] - Companies in the personal care sector are also recommended for their channel expansion and price increases [7] Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, noting that some countries have received a 90-day delay on tariffs, which benefits companies with established overseas production [7] - Companies like Zhejiang Natural and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the export chain [7] New Tobacco Products - The report mentions Simoer International's stock buyback as a sign of confidence amid regulatory changes in the e-cigarette market [7] - The focus on compliance and harm reduction in the tobacco industry is emphasized as a growing trend [7] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed, with a 5.72% decline in the index [25] - Companies like Hailan Home and others are recommended as potential investments due to their brand strength [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In Line with the Market" for the light industry manufacturing sector [6]. Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 1.34% in March 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.27 percentage points, ranking 21st among 30 sectors [12][14]. - The sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio as of March 31, 2025, is 30.70, which is at the 40th percentile historically, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [20][21]. - The report highlights the impact of various factors on the paper and home furnishing segments, including fluctuating raw material prices and the influence of government policies on market demand [6][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The light industry manufacturing index underperformed the broader market in March 2025, with a trading volume of 366.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.63% decrease month-on-month [12][13]. - Sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with "Other Home Furnishings" and "Metal Packaging" gaining 2.39% and 1.79% respectively, while "Furniture" and "Other Light Industry" fell by 4.25% and 7.46% respectively [14][17]. - Nearly half of the stocks in the sector saw gains, with 70 out of 171 stocks rising, while the median decline was -1.74% [17][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Paper Industry - The paper and paper products industry reported a cumulative revenue of 209.05 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 1.9% year-on-year, with total profits declining by 17.7% [24]. - The average price of waste yellow board paper was 1,415 yuan/ton as of March 31, 2025, reflecting a 0.86% increase from the previous month [29]. - The production of corrugated paper and boxboard continued to face downward price pressure, with average prices dropping by 3.51% and 6.54% respectively [35][36]. 2.2. Home Furnishing - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with cumulative sales area for new residential buildings declining by only 3.4% year-on-year in January-February 2025, a significant improvement from previous months [74]. - The furniture manufacturing sector faced challenges, with cumulative revenue of 91.22 billion yuan in January-February 2025, down 2.7% year-on-year, and profits down by 29.7% [83]. - The furniture retail sector saw a growth in sales, with a 15.63% increase in sales for building materials and home furnishings in February 2025 [88][89].