每经AI快讯，泰和科技（SZ 300801，收盘价：27.25元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，公司第四届第十八 次董事会会议于2025年12月12日在公司会议室以现场和通讯表决相结合的方式召开。会议审议了《关于 聘任公司总经理并担任法定代表人的议案》等文件。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——专访管涛：美国政府经济贸易政策正逐渐动摇美元本位国际货币体系，利 多因素下人民币汇率有可能破7 （记者 曾健辉） 2024年1至12月份，泰和科技的营业收入构成为：水处理行业占比86.17%，氯碱行业占比13.42%，其他 占比0.41%。 截至发稿，泰和科技市值为60亿元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Cautiously bearish; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [4] - Caustic soda: Unilateral - Sideways; Inter - period - Wait - and - see; Inter - variety - None [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: Supply - demand is weak, and cost support is prominent. Pay attention to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3] - Caustic soda: Overall supply - demand is weak. Focus on the trend of liquid chlorine prices and caustic soda device dynamics [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: PVC main contract closing price is 4276 yuan/ton (- 52); East China basis is 44 yuan/ton (+ 22); South China basis is 24 yuan/ton (+ 2) [1] - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4320 yuan/ton (- 30); South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4300 yuan/ton (- 50) [1] - Upstream production profit: Semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+ 0); Calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+ 0); Calcium carbide profit is 0 yuan/ton (+ 0); PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 1019 yuan/ton (- 139); PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 472 yuan/ton (- 8); PVC export profit is 2.5 US dollars/ton (+ 3.8) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory is 32.6 tons (+ 0.3); PVC social inventory is 52.9 tons (+ 0.1); PVC calcium carbide method operation rate is 79.13% (- 2.96%); PVC ethylene method operation rate is 76.67% (+ 4.75%); PVC operation rate is 78.39% (- 0.62%) [1] - Downstream order situation: Production enterprise pre - sales volume is 69.8 tons (+ 2.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: SH main contract closing price is 2113 yuan/ton (- 42); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis is 106 yuan/ton (+ 42) [1] - Spot price: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quotation is 710 yuan/ton (+ 0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quotation is 1180 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 513.8 yuan/ton (+ 0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is - 608.21 yuan/ton (+ 0.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) is 237.99 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 45.71 tons (- 4.77); Flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.45 tons (+ 0.08); Caustic soda operation rate is 86.20% (+ 0.20%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: Alumina operation rate is 86.20% (+ 0.14%); Printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 62.74% (- 1.72%); Viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.62% (- 1.67%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply - demand is weak, and cost support is prominent. Some enterprises consider production cuts due to low prices, and the operation rate has slightly decreased. The supply side is still abundant, downstream demand has different trends, inventory is at a high level, production profit is at a low level, and the export situation is not optimistic [3] Caustic Soda - Spot prices are mainly stable. Supply - side enterprise maintenance has decreased, and the operation rate has slightly increased. Demand - side consumption of caustic soda has decreased, and the price is at a low level. There is some improvement in transactions, and inventory is at a high level. Chlor - alkali costs have increased slightly, and profits are at a low level [3] Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Inter - period: Wait - and - see; Inter - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Sideways; Inter - period: Wait - and - see; Inter - variety: None [5]

中原期货分析称，近期山东液碱市场受库存下滑带动，低价出现小幅上调，虽整体供应仍显宽松，但山 东省外订单逐步发货缓解了部分市场压力，但当前并无装置因成本因素降负调整。预估北方液碱市场部 分低价呈试探性上涨，多数企业以稳价调整为主。关注氯碱装置波动以及液氯价格。整体来看，供需格 局偏弱，烧碱2601合约继续偏弱运行，偏空思路对待。 东吴期货表示，烧碱兑现累库跌价，弱现实延续。且由于液氯价格至少到元旦放假前还会维持偏强，碱 厂目前还没有减产的压力，供给不减产则意味着还不能去库涨价。此外，氧化铝现货加速下跌，虽有矿 价下跌预期，但氧化铝的减产预期仍然在加强。若一季度氧化铝开始兑现减产，则是在非铝需求淡季上 雪上加霜。考虑到春节前需求最弱，而供给最高，做空时间仍较为充足，到液氯开始出现需求转弱、价 格大跌前，仍建议继续持有空单。 南华期货（603093）指出，华北山东地区液碱出货情况依旧不佳，虽下游需求稍有好转，但供应较为充 足，企业出货仍有压力，近日省内企业与外围氧化铝下游签单完成，但发货时间未定，当前企业低价出 货为主。河北地区因后期有新增产能，当地下游需求情况温和，企业出货一般，价格低位维稳。山西地 区有氯碱企业 ...

Core Insights - The domestic liquid caustic soda market is experiencing weak transaction activity, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda declining in various regions due to low demand from downstream industries and traders [1][2] - The overall operating rate of major sample enterprises in the country has decreased slightly, indicating a reduction in production activity [1][2] - Inventory levels for 32% liquid caustic soda have increased in several regions, reflecting a lack of purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [2] Price Trends - Prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong are currently between 680-775 RMB/ton, while 50% liquid caustic soda is priced at 1150-1170 RMB/ton [1] - The price of liquid caustic soda is expected to continue to trend weakly due to ongoing supply pressures and a lack of significant demand [2] Inventory Levels - As of November 26, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China has risen to 261,400 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous week [2] - In Shandong, the inventory for 32% liquid caustic soda has increased by 9.19% to 124,800 tons, attributed to high operating rates and low unloading efficiency from aluminum oxide enterprises [2] Market Outlook - The caustic soda industry is facing ongoing supply and demand pressures, with high production levels and elevated inventories leading to a weak price outlook [2] - The traditional demand off-season is persisting, and there is no significant boost from exports, suggesting that prices will likely remain weak in the near term [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: なな女 - Methanol: ☆☆☆ - Styrene: ★☆☆ - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ - Plastic: ★☆☆ - PVC: ☆☆☆ - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ - PTA: ☆☆☆ - Ethylene Glycol: なな女 - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ - Glass: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are under downward pressure, while some have certain support factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, and raw material price fluctuations. [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined due to increased supply and weakened downstream buying sentiment, but inventory control provided some support [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell. Polyethylene had weak spot prices due to sufficient supply and low downstream demand. Polypropylene faced increased production and limited demand, resulting in an imbalanced supply - demand situation [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had low - level fluctuations, with falling spot prices and high port inventory, but future supply - demand pressure may ease. Consider long - short spreads on dips in the medium term [3]. - Styrene futures declined due to falling crude oil prices, weak pure benzene fundamentals, and expected increased supply [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA continued to fall due to lower oil prices. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5]. - Ethylene glycol had a slight rebound but still faced supply pressure, with long - term pressure from planned new production [5]. - Short fiber's load was high, with a slight inventory increase. Its long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand weakened, with a weak processing margin and over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fell, while the spot market was relatively stable. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to supply - demand factors [6]. - Urea futures were firm in a range. Although there was inventory reduction, high production and weakening market sentiment may lead to continued range - bound trading [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline due to weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate in a low - level range [7]. - Caustic soda was at a low level, with high inventory, increased production, and weak demand, leading to profit compression [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell below 1100 yuan due to cost and supply pressure, with a high - inventory situation. It is in a long - term supply - surplus pattern [8]. - Glass continued to decline. Although there was inventory reduction, recent sales weakened, and long - term cold - repair may be forced by low profits [8].

| Million | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月09日 | | 尿素 | なな女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯苯 | なな女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 凝丙烯 | ななな | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | ☆☆☆ | PTA | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ☆☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-09 供需弱势，烧碱持续下探 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1198元/吨（-63）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯）593.8元/吨（-62.5）；山东 氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）-513.21元/吨（-92.50）；西北氯碱综合利润（1吨PVC）399.00元/吨（+0.00）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4390元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4410元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2905元/吨（+0）；电石利润-25元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-1019元/吨（-139）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-472元/吨（-8）；PVC出口利润-4.4美元/吨（+6.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.6万吨（+0.3）；PVC社会库存52.9万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.09%（-0.12%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.92%（+0.80%）；PVC开工率79.01%（+0.16%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.8万吨（+2.9）。 烧碱： 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2 ...

【烯烃-聚烯烃】 两烯期货主力合约日内弱势整理。周末山东丙烯市场价格坚挺上行。供应暂无实际增量，企业库存维持低位。 下游工厂入市采购积极性保持,丙烯生产企业出货顺畅,部分报盘偏强调整,市场整体成交气氛良好。 塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内下行收跌。聚乙烯方面，供应变化不大，下游需求仍显疲软，工厂接货意愿偏 弱,观望情绪较浓,继续维持小单采购策略,对原料价格缺乏支撑。聚丙烯方面,近期检修装置集中,供应压 力可控。目前下游多数企业新单跟进开始显现转弱迹象,市场季节性需求谈季表现逐步明显。同时短期原料低 位运行,更是抑制下游采购积极性。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 油价重心持续抬升，纯苯估值偏低及后市供需改善预期下,情绪好转，价格推涨。隆众周四公布的纯苯装置周 度负荷继续下调，但12月预期港口持续累库，现实存压力;后市有纯苯装置检修及下游苯乙烯提负预期，供需 压力有所缓解。上半年去库预期下，考虑逢低介入月差正套。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内上行收涨。随着华南装置负荷的下降，国内整体供需仍维持紧平衡状态，码头有持续 小幅去库预期,市场短期看涨情绪或将继续推动价格上涨。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 11/11/2 | > 国技 ...

库存创出新高，价格创出新低 ——烧碱周报2025.12.08 作者： 刘培洋 联系方式：0371-58620083 电子邮箱：liupy_qh@ccnew.com 执业证书编号：F0290318 交易咨询编号：Z0011155 本期观点 | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1、宏观：国内关注年底中央会议，海外重点关注本周美联储12月份 | | | | | 议息会议。 | 烧碱2601合约 | 1、国内外宏 | | | 2、供需面：山东地区供应高位，需求刚需，主力下游压车，短期整 | | 观政策及经 | | | 体预计缓慢，再需求端无明显增量，供应端不减量的情况下，山东 | 上方参考压力 | 济数据变化； | | 烧碱 | 液碱短期依旧小幅看跌。华东区域内供应仍宽裕，供需矛盾仍偏大， | 位2250元/吨 | 2、企业装置 | | | 传统需求淡季延续，出口未有明显提振下预估下液碱价格延续趋弱 | 一线，下方支 | 检修情况； | | | | 撑位2000元/ | | | | 表现。 | 吨一线。 | 3、下游需求 | | | 3、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a layout period at the end of the year, with a high overall weighted operating rate and low price differentials indicating potential for a reversal [14] - The tire industry has shown signs of recovery, with leading companies expected to return to high growth by 2026 due to easing tariffs and recovering raw material costs [15] - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025-2026)" is anticipated to accelerate industry transformation and upgrading [16] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 54,965.58 billion and a circulating market value of 48,900.97 billion [2] Price and Performance - The report indicates a 2.0% absolute performance increase over one month, 28.6% over six months, and 25.6% over twelve months [3] - Key price increases this week include Henry natural gas (+18.5%), ethane (+10.4%), and octanol (+7.8%) [13] Sector Tracking - The tire sector is highlighted for its recovery, with nine out of eleven listed companies reporting profit growth in Q3 [15] - The agricultural chemical sector is noted for recent price increases in small pesticide varieties and the essential nature of fertilizers [7] - The phosphorous chemical sector is under observation for changes in industry dynamics due to favorable policies [7] Investment Strategies - Suggested investment routes include early-stage recovery stocks, scarce resource leaders, high-growth potential companies, and sectors with favorable supply-demand structures [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fluorine, silicon, and phosphorus sectors for their valuation elasticity and potential for new cycle star products [17][18] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated discussions on PTA industry development to prevent excessive competition and promote stable operations [16] - The report notes that the petrochemical sector is expected to undergo significant changes due to new policies aimed at optimizing supply and enhancing technological innovation [19]