Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market has supply and demand imbalances, with price upward momentum limited [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by factors such as oil prices and downstream profitability, showing a weak performance [3] - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with price drivers mainly from raw materials and demand showing a mixed picture [4] - The coal - chemical market is expected to stabilize or continue weakly depending on the product, influenced by factors like inventory and demand [5] - The chlor - alkali market has supply - demand issues, with PVC and caustic soda showing different price trends [6] - The soda ash - glass market has high inventories and supply pressure, with prices expected to be in a certain pattern [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day average, with limited upward momentum due to supply increase and weakening downstream acceptance [2] - Polyolefin futures decline, with polyethylene having low supply pressure but weak demand, and polypropylene facing supply pressure and slow demand recovery [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are weak due to factors like oil price decline, downstream poor profitability, and import pressure, but may improve in Q3 [3] - Styrene futures decline, with supply - demand support insufficient due to high inventory and weak new orders [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are affected by oil prices, with PTA price driven by raw materials, and downstream demand showing a positive trend but with some constraints [4] - Ethylene glycol is pressured in the far - month due to new device news, with near - month and spot being strong [4] - Short fiber is expected to be positive in the near - month, with price following cost, and bottle chip has limited processing - margin repair space [4] Coal - Chemical - Methanol prices are weak with high port inventory, but may stabilize with expected increase in MTO device operation and downstream stocking [5] - Urea prices hit new lows, with supply - demand remaining loose and the market expected to continue weakly [5] Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - Caustic soda prices may have a wide - range oscillation pattern due to factors like demand support and supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices fluctuate narrowly, with high inventory and supply pressure, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds [7] - Glass prices may have a wide - range oscillation due to factors like inventory decline and potential macro - level positives [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA installations are gradually resuming, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. OPEC+ will likely increase oil production again at Sunday's meeting. Downstream profits have significantly recovered, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91% [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The basis of MEG has weakened. The upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant is putting pressure on the futures market. Although the arrival of overseas MEG installations has decreased, the increase in hedging positions after the price rebound. Polyester inventory is in good condition, and the operating load of downstream weaving has increased [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE Crude Oil: The price rose from 486.2 yuan/barrel on September 10th to 489.2 yuan/barrel on September 11th, an increase of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA: The spot price decreased from 4,625 yuan/ton to 4,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton. The main futures price dropped from 4,698 yuan/ton to 4,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 134.3 yuan/ton to 126.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.2 yuan/ton. The futures processing fee decreased from 202.3 yuan/ton to 194.0 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 8.2 yuan/ton [2] - MEG: The spot price in Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market decreased from 4,441.5 yuan/ton to 4,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan/ton. The main futures price dropped from 4,319 yuan/ton to 4,302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.0 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain Indicators - PX: CFR China PX remained at 838, and the PX-naphtha spread decreased from 241 to 235, a decrease of 6 [2] - Polyester Filament: The POY150D/48F price increased from 6,725 to 6,760, an increase of 35.0. The FDY150D/96F price decreased from 7,025 to 6,990, a decrease of 35.0. The DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 8,015. The filament sales rate decreased from 69% to 48%, a decrease of 21% [2] - Polyester Staple Fiber: The 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6,540 to 6,565, an increase of 25. The staple fiber sales rate increased from 55% to 72%, an increase of 17% [2] - Polyester Chip: The semi-gloss chip price increased from 5,770 to 5,775, an increase of 5.0. The chip sales rate decreased from 198% to 54%, a decrease of 144% [2] Installation Maintenance - A 2.5 million-ton PTA installation in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is under pressure due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and concerns about supply - overcapacity, with the IEA suggesting a possible surplus in 2026. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The fuel oil market is also in a state of oscillation. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is suppressed by factors such as weak demand before the refinery maintenance season and after the end of summer power generation demand. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore may increase, and the market should focus on the cost - side fluctuations of crude oil [3]. - The asphalt price is expected to rise further as the supply pressure is limited and the seasonal demand in September and October is expected to increase. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the cost - side fluctuations of oil prices [3]. - The polyester market is expected to be weak with oscillations. Although the fundamentals of PX are improving, TA and ethylene glycol still face challenges such as weak downstream demand and uncertain supply recovery [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, but the weather in the production areas during the peak - production season needs to be closely monitored [7]. - The methanol price is expected to reach a temporary bottom. Although the supply will gradually increase, the demand from MTO devices in the East China region is expected to increase, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly. Although the demand is picking up with the arrival of the peak season, the cost pressure restricts the price upward movement [7]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply remains high, the domestic demand recovers slowly, and the export is affected by anti - dumping policies, with large inventory pressure [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price dropped. The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.7 million barrels per day and predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ is increasing supply, which has led to concerns about overcapacity and pressured the oil price. The demand growth is slower than the supply growth, and the OPEC monthly report shows an increase in production in August [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil on the SHFE rose 0.47%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract fell 0.53%. The supply in Singapore may increase, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is affected by weak demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt on the SHFE rose 0.76%. The domestic refinery asphalt inventory increased slightly, the social inventory decreased, and the device operating rate decreased. The supply pressure is limited, and the price may rise with the arrival of the demand peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA and EG prices fell, and PX prices rose slightly. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some production devices have maintenance or restart plans, and the market is expected to be weak with oscillations [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of various rubber varieties dropped. The operating rate of tire enterprises in Shandong increased, the demand is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a temporary low due to domestic device maintenance, but it will gradually increase. The Iranian device has high load and stable shipping volume, but there is an expected maintenance. The MTO device in the East China region may start up, and the port inventory will peak in the middle of the month [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of various polyolefin products show different trends. The supply will remain high, the demand is picking up with the peak season, but the cost pressure makes the market expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC market prices in different regions are adjusted slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is recovering, but the demand for pipes and profiles has limited growth. The supply is high, the export is affected by policies, and the inventory pressure is large, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical products on September 12, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, methanol, etc., and also shows the changes in these data compared with the previous period and their positions in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and suggested a possible surplus in 2026 due to the increase in supply from OPEC+ and non - OPEC countries. The OPEC monthly report shows an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production in August [14][15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., through charts [17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., through charts [35]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., through charts [48]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc., through charts [64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc., through charts [75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the light - period energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [79]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures showed different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, crude oil (SC2511) was at 483, down 6 (-1.31%), with a trading volume of 2.92 million lots (down 0.40 million lots) and open interest of 2.26 million lots (up 0.09 million lots) [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties had different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil was 0.85 (up 0.18), and the open interest PCR was 0.85 (up 0.12) [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety were analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 570 and the support level was 415 [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety was presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil was 29.61%, and the weighted implied volatility was 33.95% (up 2.83%) [7] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options: Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical short - term disturbances, long - term supply - demand negatives, and concerns about employment and the economy. **Market analysis**: A bearish market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR above 0.80, pressure level at 570 and support level at 415. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] 3.5.2 Energy - related Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: Loose supply and low demand. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility near the mean, open interest PCR around 0.70. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options: Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Increased production and capacity utilization. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.90. **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Fundamentals**: Decreased inventory. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options: Polypropylene - **Fundamentals**: Increased maintenance losses. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.60. **Strategies**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options: Rubber - **Fundamentals**: Decreased tire production load. **Market analysis**: A gradually warming - up market with support and pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility near the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options: PTA - **Fundamentals**: Stable supply - demand, low inventory and processing fees. **Market analysis**: A weak bearish market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility above the mean, open interest PCR around 0.70. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options: Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: Changes in production load. **Market analysis**: A market with pressure and downward fluctuations. **Option factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR around 1.00. **Strategies**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options: Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Increased production, weak price due to market supply. **Market analysis**: A low - level weak consolidation market with pressure. **Option factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.10 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: Weak supply - demand, slow new order transactions. **Market analysis**: A low - level weak consolidation market. **Option factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PTA market is affected by a small increase in crude oil prices, but the ample PTA spot and poor promotion results of downstream polyester filament lead to a slight weakening of the PTA spot basis. The domestic PTA production is rising as domestic PTA plants gradually resume operation, and the PTA basis is dropping rapidly. OPEC+ will increase oil production again at the Sunday meeting. The downstream profits are significantly repaired, and the operating load of polyester has rebounded to 91%. - The ethylene glycol (MEG) basis is weakening, and the upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's MEG plant exerts pressure on the futures market. The arrival of overseas MEG plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery. The polyester inventory is in good condition, and the operating load of downstream weaving has increased [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Comparison - **INE Crude Oil and PTA-SC**: On September 9th, INE crude oil was 482.8 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC was 1169.4 yuan/ton. On September 10th, INE crude oil rose to 486.2 yuan/barrel, and PTA - SC dropped to 1164.7 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.3333 to 1.3296 [2] - **CFR China PX and Related Indicators**: CFR China PX increased from 836 to 838, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 242 to 241 [2] - **PTA Indicators**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4678 yuan/ton to 4698 yuan/ton, the PTA现货价格 increased from 4605 to 4625, the 现货加工费 rose from 123.4 yuan/ton to 134.3 yuan/ton, and the 盘面加工费 increased from 196.4 yuan/ton to 202.3 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased from 19877 to 11842 [2] - **MEG Indicators**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4322 yuan/ton to 4319 yuan/ton, the MEG内盘 dropped from 4454 to 4439, and the MEG - naphtha spread increased from (111.77) to (110.96). The MEG主力基差 decreased from 136 to 118 [2] - **Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The PX开工率 remained at 82.59%, the PTA开工率 remained at 78.25%, the MEG开工率 remained at 60.74%, and the 聚酯负荷 increased slightly from 88.16% to 88.25% [2] - **Polyester Filament and Fiber Data**: For polyester filament, POY150D/48F decreased from 6805 to 6725, FDY150D/96F decreased from 7090 to 7025, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 8015. The 长丝产销 increased from 44% to 69%. For polyester short - fiber, 1.4D直纺涤短 remained at 6540, and the 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 55%. For polyester chips, the 半光切片 increased from 5755 to 5770, and the 切片产销 increased from 146% to 198% [2] 3.2 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China restarted last weekend after shutting down for maintenance around August 26 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The green polyester industry is on the verge of significant growth due to breakthroughs in new technologies that will expand the raw material base beyond bottle flakes, potentially opening up an additional 80 million tons of market space [1][2]. Industry Overview - The current processing level of the green polyester industry using physical methods is relatively mature, but it is limited to using bottle flakes as raw materials, primarily producing short fibers and bottle flakes [2]. - The annual production of polyester fibers is 79 million tons, with polyester bottle flakes accounting for approximately 32 million tons, representing about one-third of the total polyester production [1][2]. Technological Advancements - New technologies are expected to allow green polyester to completely replace virgin materials, thus significantly increasing the market potential [2]. - The recycling technology using biological methods is gaining attention, with companies like Carbios in France and Tianjin Yuantian Bio already making strides towards industrialization [3]. Market Dynamics - The polyester recycling system is relatively mature, with low-cost waste materials, which enhances the economic viability of developing new technologies [2]. - The flexibility of biological methods, which can produce recycled PTA and ethylene glycol, allows for broader applications beyond just polyester [3]. Investment Opportunities - Companies like WanKai New Materials and New Feng Ming are positioned well within the green polyester sector, with strategic investments and developments in bio-based materials [5][6]. - WanKai New Materials has established a forward-looking layout in both major development directions of green polyester and is expected to benefit from its parent company's investments [5]. - New Feng Ming, a leading polyester filament enterprise, is also investing in bio-based materials, positioning itself as a key player in the market [5]. Emerging Trends - The development of bio-based materials, such as the use of FDCA to replace PTA, is gaining traction, with significant investments from major players in the polyester supply chain [4]. - The commercialization of bio-based polyester applications is anticipated to accelerate, driven by clear application scenarios [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures price may have limited downside space. The spot price may remain firm in the short - term due to low inventory pressure on caustic soda enterprises and expected supply decline. Attention should be paid to the alumina plant's purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [2]. - The PVC futures price will continue to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pressure increases, and the demand has not improved. Although in the traditional peak season, the demand remains sluggish. The cost side provides some support [2]. Methanol Industry - On the supply side, inland maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in early September, and the import volume will still be large. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors are still weak. The port has been significantly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weak. The key is to focus on the inventory digestion rhythm [5]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the short - term imbalance of domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is abundant, while the demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation in factories [11]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price continued to fluctuate widely. The current oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums, but the upside space is restricted by the loose fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly observe on the long - short side and wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. The price has support at the low level, but the upside space of the rebound is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term shock between 6600 - 6900 [39]. - PTA: The supply - demand in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited. It is recommended to treat TA as a short - term shock between 4600 - 4800 and mainly conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spreads [39]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to slightly reduce inventory in September and enter the inventory accumulation channel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the support of EG01 at around 4300 and the EG1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [39]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak, following the raw material fluctuations. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [39]. - Bottle chips: In September, the supply and demand may both decrease, and the inventory is expected to increase. PR follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has limited upside space [39]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, the loss of PDH is intensifying, and the basis has weakened rapidly. For PE, the current maintenance is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term. The overall market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [49][51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The supply in September is lower than expected, and the demand support is weakening. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is driven by the strong oil price. BZ2603 is expected to follow styrene and fluctuate strongly [57]. - Styrene: The short - term drive is weak, but the supply - demand is expected to improve in the future. The price is supported by the oil price, but the rebound space is limited by high inventory. EB10 can be treated with low - buying on a rolling basis, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7200 and the spread expansion between EB11 - BZ11 [57]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: The spot prices of caustic soda and PVC remained stable on September 10, while the futures prices showed different degrees of changes. For example, SH2509 of caustic soda increased by 7.0%, and V2509 of PVC increased by 0.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate is expected to decline next week due to maintenance. The PVC supply has an upward expectation as some device maintenance is restored [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for caustic soda is expected to weaken, especially from the alumina industry. The PVC demand has not improved, and downstream product enterprises maintain a low operating rate [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the methanol futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.38%, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The port inventory increased by 8.59% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased, while some downstream operating rates decreased, such as the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates [5]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures price is running weakly. The spot prices in different regions showed little change on September 10 [11]. - **Supply**: The daily output of urea remains at a high level, and some maintenance devices are expected to resume production [11]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is for rigid procurement, resulting in insufficient total demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory increased, while the port inventory remained unchanged [11]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 11, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [44]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: According to EIA data, the U.S. crude oil production, refinery operating rate, and various inventory changes are shown in the report [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased slightly, while the prices of some downstream polyester products decreased, such as the polyester bottle chip price [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.9% [39]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory is at a low level, and the arrival volume in early September is moderately low [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed small changes, and the spot prices remained stable [49]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the PP device operating rate increased. The downstream weighted operating rates of both increased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased. The PP trader inventory increased [49]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene increased slightly, while the price of styrene remained stable [57]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products decreased, while the styrene operating rate increased [57]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——累库预期提前，估值供需承压 2025/09/10 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 1、本周计划到港14.33万吨，港口发货不佳，下周一港口库存预计累库3万吨左右，现货流动性预计将逐步放 松。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4200-4600 | 11.05% | 6.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 13.78% | 30.4% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 12.97% | 20.1% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 10.02% | 10.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...