1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, affected by macro - sentiment and terminal restocking, but downstream PTA maintenance and weak terminal demand limit its drive. Follow macro - sentiment and oil prices, be cautious and bearish on PX09, and expand PX - SC spread at low levels [2]. - PTA: Load is around 80%, 8 - month maintenance increases, and short - term drive is limited. Be bearish on TA above 4900, conduct TA9 - 1 rolling reverse arbitrage, and expand PTA processing margin at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, but affected by macro factors. EG99 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage is the main strategy [2]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, follow raw materials. Unilateral strategy is the same as TA, and PF processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand is average, and processing margin has limited upside. PR is the same as PTA, and pay attention to expanding the processing margin at the lower end of the 350 - 600 range [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose due to geopolitical uncertainties and better - than - expected demand data. Short - term trading focuses on geopolitical risks, and the market fluctuates along the upper edge of the range. Use short - term band strategies, and capture volatility opportunities in options [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Third - quarter supply - demand improves slightly, but new device production limits de - stocking. Follow market sentiment, and BZ2603 follows oil prices and styrene [13]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is weak, port inventory increases, and basis weakens. EB09 is rolling bearish [13]. Methanol Industry - Supply is high, port inventory may increase in August, downstream demand is weak, and MTO profit is low. Expand MTO09 profit at low levels [29]. Polyolefin Industry - In August, supply pressure increases for PP and PE, demand has potential restocking conditions, and overall valuation is moderately high. PP is bearish unilaterally (7200 - 7300), and hold LP01 [32]. Urea Industry - The disk rebounds slightly, but the core contradiction remains. Supply is high, export policies limit demand, and inventory pressure increases. Pay attention to autumn fertilizer progress and device restart [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is strong, and the spot is stable. Supply increases and inventory may rise. The price is expected to be stable, and pay attention to risk avoidance [37][40]. - PVC: The disk sentiment recovers. Supply may increase, domestic demand is weak, and export expectations are good. The supply exceeds demand, and be cautious in the short - term [37][40] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: On July 29, most polyester product prices and cash flows changed slightly. For example, Brent crude (September) rose to $72.51/barrel, and POY150/48 cash flow was - 24 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: MEG port inventory decreased slightly, and PTA device maintenance increased in August. Terminal demand showed signs of restocking but was still weak [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of polyester - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 30, Brent rose to $72.51/barrel, and WTI slightly decreased. Spreads such as Brent - WTI changed [7]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical risks and demand data drove oil prices, while OPEC+ production increase limited long - term gains [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, pure benzene and styrene prices changed slightly, and related spreads also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, and the operating rates of related industries changed [13]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, methanol futures prices rose, and basis and spreads changed [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased, and upstream and downstream operating rates changed [29]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, polyolefin futures and spot prices changed slightly, and basis and spreads changed [32]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, supply pressure increased, and demand had potential restocking conditions [32]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, urea prices in different regions changed slightly, and spreads also changed [34]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply was high, device maintenance decreased, and export demand was restricted [34]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 29, caustic soda and PVC prices changed, and spreads and basis changed [37]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and downstream demand operating rates changed, and inventory also changed [37][38][39][40]

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 涨跌 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(9月) | 72.51 | 70.04 | 2.47 | 3.5% | POY150/48价格 | 6720 | 6715 | ટ | 0.1% | 美元/桶 | 5 | 3.7% | FDY150/96价格 | WTI原油(9月) | 66.71 | 2.50 | 7015 | 7010 | 0.1% | 69.21 | | | 0 | 1.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | CFR日本石脑油 | ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - PX supply tightening supports price increase, and attention should be paid to PTA processing fees. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain cost-driven fluctuations in the short term, with PTA processing fees at risk of compression [1][4] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On July 28, the PX main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, up 1.52% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4936.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2] - Supply side: Although PX devices maintain a high operating rate, the delayed commissioning of Shenghong Petrochemical's new device and temporary maintenance of some Asian devices may lead to lower-than-expected supply growth in the third quarter. PTA manufacturers' load has increased to 76.3%, but the release of Hengli Huizhou's new production capacity has been delayed, and the 4.5 million-ton Fuhai Chuang device is scheduled for maintenance in August, temporarily alleviating supply pressure [2] - Demand side: The polyester operating rate remains at a high of 89.5%, but the average daily turnover in the Light Textile City has dropped below 10 million meters, showing signs of seasonal weakening in terminal orders. As the pre - effect of overseas Christmas orders weakens, the grey fabric inventory in the weaving sector has accumulated to a high of 40 days, which may force the polyester sector to reduce its load, increasing the pressure of marginal weakening in PTA demand [2] - Inventory side: PTA factory inventory remains at a historical low of 5 days, but social circulation inventory has accumulated to 2.4 million tons, with the total visible inventory increasing by 12% year - on - year. Considering the continuation of the mainstream suppliers' strategy of controlling shipments and the downstream polyester raw material inventory only maintained at 8 days, the structural inventory contradiction may intensify short - term price fluctuations [3] Polyester - On July 25, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6606.0 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6660.0 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 54.0 yuan/ton [4] - Supply side: The PX price fluctuated upward during the week (from 6,810 yuan/ton on July 18 to 7,062 yuan/ton on July 25), and the PTA futures price also showed a trend of first falling and then rising (weekly low of 4744 yuan/ton, closing at 4936 yuan/ton), indicating that upstream cost support is gradually strengthening [4] - Demand side: The MA15 trading volume in the Light Textile City continued to decline (from 552.27 million meters on July 18 to 508.53 million meters on July 25), indicating weakening terminal textile orders [4] - Inventory side: The current inventory of polyester staple fiber (revised value of 4.96 days) is significantly lower than the average of the past five years, but the inventory of polyester filament types such as DTY (28.42 days), FDY (22.19 days), and POY (20.40 days) is at a medium - to - high historical level, reflecting that the inventory pressure of filament types is still accumulating [4] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 6,890 yuan/ton, down 2.44% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 209,146 lots, up 10.06%; the main contract open interest was 112,959 lots, down 6.91% [5] - PTA futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 4,812 yuan/ton, down 2.51% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 1,061,018 lots, down 11.36%; the main contract open interest was 990,440 lots, down 8.23% [5] - Short - fiber futures: On July 28, the main contract price was 6,482 yuan/ton, down 1.88% from July 25; the main contract trading volume was 137,717 lots, down 4.82%; the main contract open interest was 93,598 lots, down 9.06% [5] - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, and polyester filament remained stable or changed slightly during the period [5][6] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - Trump mentioned that Powell might be ready to cut interest rates on July 28 [7] - Middle - East conflicts: Israel announced a limited - time tactical cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, and there were potential target statements against Iran; the Yemeni Houthi rebels threatened ships related to Israeli ports [7] - National Bureau of Statistics: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [7] Supply and Demand - Demand - On July 25, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 6.21 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 50.0%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 4.55 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 1.67 million meters [9] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - PX's price increase may be affected by supply tightening or rising crude oil costs. PTA's price has not risen synchronously due to stable supply or unchanged downstream demand. Future attention should be paid to PX device dynamics and the improvement of polyester operating rate and the terminal market. If PX supply remains tight and PTA demand rises, PTA prices may increase; otherwise, PTA may remain volatile or decline [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For MEG, under the recent "anti - involution" logic, the polyester sector is generally strong, but the substantial impact mainly lies in the rebound of coal prices on the cost side. The supply - side impact is expected to be limited. The inventory accumulation in the third quarter has significantly decreased, and the near - end supply - demand has marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see before the "anti - involution" policy is implemented. For bottle chips, the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side, and the cash - flow processing fee has been slightly compressed recently, with the disk processing fee mainly for range operation [2]. - For PX - TA, the PX - PTA is generally strong driven by commodity sentiment and marginal improvement in polyester demand. The current fundamental driving force of the PX - TA industry chain is limited, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy is difficult to assess. It is advisable to wait for further policy announcements. The near - end supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the industrial chain profit still tends to be concentrated upstream. In the short term, there may be PTA production - cut and price - support actions, and it is advisable to expand the processing fee at low prices [3][5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports decreased to 53.3 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons [1]. - **Device**: Shenhua Yulin recently reduced its load for maintenance; Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Yangmei Shouyang recently restarted and increased their loads; Zhonghuaxue is in the process of heating up and restarting but has not produced output yet. Overseas, four sets of 2.15 million - ton production capacity devices in Saudi Arabia that were temporarily shut down have restarted, and a 700,000 - ton device of US Lotte has shut down recently [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total supply load increased to 68.35% (+2.15%), and the coal - based load increased to 74.36% (+2.15%). The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%) [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of each route have been significantly repaired, and the EO - 1.3EG ratio has weakened significantly [2]. PX - TA - **PX**: Tianjin Petrochemical of PX shut down for maintenance as planned, and the load decreased to 79.9% (-1.2%). There is an expectation of increased supply in August. The PX link's efficiency has been further repaired [3][4]. - **PTA**: The PTA device has been operating stably, and the load remained at 79.9% (+0.2%). The social inventory has increased to 2.22 million tons (+20,000 tons). The TA cash - flow processing fee has been compressed again, and it has reached a historical low [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand side saw a slight increase in the load of filament and staple fiber, and the polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%). The filament sales were good this week, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [4]. Polyester - **Load**: The comprehensive polyester load rebounded to 88.7% (+0.4%), the filament load increased to 91.3% (+0.8%), and the staple fiber load increased to 90.6% (+1.1%) [2][8]. - **Sales**: This week, affected by the increase in raw material prices, the downstream speculative sentiment and replenishment rhythm led to good filament sales, and the inventory pressure of finished filament products has been significantly relieved [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of each product have different degrees of change, with the POY profit decreasing by 24 yuan/ton, the FDY profit increasing by 26 yuan/ton, etc. [8]. Device Information - **MEG Device Maintenance**: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices are in the process of shutdown, maintenance, or restart, with different expected restart times [12]. - **PX Device Maintenance**: Many domestic and overseas PX devices are under maintenance, with different expected restart times [13]. - **PTA Device Maintenance**: Many domestic and overseas PTA devices are shut down, with different expected restart times [14]. Production and Investment Plans - **PX**: There is currently no planned production capacity for PX in the short term, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 8.5 million tons [15]. - **PTA**: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 8.7 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 14.7 million tons [15]. - **MEG**: The planned production capacity in 2025 is 1.6 million tons, and the subsequent planned production capacity is 3.8 million tons [15]. - **Polyester**: The total planned production capacity in 2025 is 485,000 tons, covering various products such as filaments, bottle chips, and slices [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, specifically polyester products, bottle-grade PET, and ethylene glycol [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Polyester Demand and Production**: Overall polyester demand is lower than in the previous two years, with a slight decrease in operating rates. Export demand increased in the first half of the year, but orders were average from late June to July, which is traditionally a low season [1][2][3]. - **Bottle-Grade PET Market**: The bottle-grade PET market is currently in a relative oversupply cycle, with rapid expansion since 2023, adding approximately 4 million tons of new capacity annually. Total capacity has exceeded 20 million tons [1][4][6]. - **Ethylene Glycol Market**: The ethylene glycol market has low overall inventory, with prices influenced by cost factors. Prices were previously around 4,600-4,800 RMB but have stabilized at 4,200-4,300 RMB due to declining coal and oil prices [2][9][20]. - **Production Adjustments**: Various polyester products, including long filaments, short fibers, and bottle-grade PET, are experiencing losses, leading to production cuts across the board. The average operating rate is expected to remain around 89% in July, with a potential recovery in demand in September [1][5][8][19]. Additional Important Content - **High Inventory Pressure**: The bottle-grade PET industry is addressing high inventory levels through concentrated production cuts to reduce supply and alleviate inventory pressure. However, the overall industry remains in an oversupply state, making it difficult to restore processing fees to previous high levels [8][19]. - **Impact of Policies**: The anti-involution policies in the chemical industry primarily target older petrochemical facilities, with limited impact on the supply of polyester raw materials like PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The policies aim to reduce supply to improve profitability across the industry [16][20]. - **Future Supply and Demand Expectations**: Despite strong export demand, the supply growth rate is expected to outpace demand growth, leading to continued high inventory levels. The first half of 2025 saw a total export of 3.24 million tons of bottle-grade PET, a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [6][15]. Conclusion - The chemical industry, particularly in polyester and ethylene glycol, is navigating challenges related to demand, production cuts, and inventory management. The impact of anti-involution policies and market dynamics will continue to shape the industry's landscape in the coming months [1][2][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly in the refining, olefins, and polyester sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing overcapacity in certain areas, with a significant portion of refining capacity being outdated. The report anticipates that accelerating the retirement of these old facilities could lead to a recovery in refining profitability [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling new capacity additions and optimizing existing capacity to mitigate excessive competition, aligning with the government's "anti-involution" policies aimed at improving product quality and phasing out inefficient production [5][11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures fell 3.24% to $65.16 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $68.79 and $65.79, respectively [18]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 419 million barrels, which is 9% lower than the five-year average for this time of year [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 2 to 542, down 47 year-on-year, indicating a potential tightening in supply [31]. Refining Sector - The report notes that the refining sector is experiencing a significant oversupply, with nearly half of the capacity being outdated. The report suggests focusing on leading refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical for potential investment [4][5]. - The Singapore refining margin increased to $15.31 per barrel, indicating some improvement in refining profitability despite the overall low profit levels [4]. Polyester Sector - The PTA market has shown signs of recovery, with prices increasing by 1.45% to 4790.2 RMB per ton. The report suggests that if new supply is strictly controlled, the profitability of leading polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials could improve [11][15]. - The report highlights that the polyester industry is entering a phase of orderly growth, with expectations for a gradual improvement in profitability as new capacity additions slow down [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, due to their favorable competitive positions and potential for profitability improvement [15][16].

Group 1 - The company has been deeply engaged in the polyester industry for many years, focusing on the "PTA - bottle-grade polyester chip" industrial chain to rationally plan its industrial structure and integrated layout [1] - The company is set to launch two bottle chip projects: the Xingjia New Materials 1.5 million tons green packaging materials project in July 2023 and the Xingye Plastics 1.5 million tons multifunctional bottle chip project in May 2025 [1] - In 2024, the downstream consumption of polyester bottle chips is expected to show moderate growth, with an annual production of 15.56 million tons, an increase of 18.80% year-on-year, and an annual consumption of 14.97 million tons, an increase of 20.63% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The soft drink sector remains the largest downstream application for polyester bottle chips, accounting for 73.25% of the total, with domestic soft drink companies increasing production capacity, contributing to a demand share of approximately 39% of PET [1] - The processing fees are expected to remain under pressure in 2024 due to short-term capacity expansion and market competition, leading to a decrease in product prices and profit margins [2] - The company is accelerating the PTA technical transformation and expansion project, aiming to enhance market dominance and industry competitiveness through scale advantages and cost control [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Olefins: ★★☆ (suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish or bearish bias, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is generally affected by macro - policies, and different sectors show different trends and influencing factors. Some sectors are driven by policies, while others are restricted by supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures rose on the day, with macro - positives still boosting the market. The restart of propylene plants and downstream start - up rhythms are in a game, with increased propylene supply weakening the fundamentals and suppressing price rebounds. The market may remain weak in the short term [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to rise. For polyethylene, although macro - policies are positive, demand is weak and domestic supply is abundant. For polypropylene, after the sale of low - price resources, the price center has risen, but short - term demand is affected by the off - season, and the short - term increase may be limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of unified benzene has strengthened significantly due to the rebound of oil prices and domestic commodity sentiment and policies. The weekly output has declined, and the expectation of hydrogenated benzene is strong. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the mid - to - late third quarter, but it will face pressure again in the fourth quarter. Band operation of monthly spreads is recommended [3] - Styrene futures rose, hitting the half - year line. The macro - aspect continues to boost the market. Downstream buyers operate according to the market, mainly digesting existing raw materials, and spot procurement is on - demand, with poor spot trading [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose significantly, driven by oil prices, market sentiment, and policies. PX has limited fundamental drivers. The inventory pressure of filaments has eased, and the drag on upstream raw materials is expected to weaken. PTA processing margins are low and have room for repair, waiting for the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol continued to rise with increased positions, boosted by the positive sentiment in the coal market and domestic policies. Downstream demand is stable on a weekly basis, domestic supply has increased slightly, and ports have slightly accumulated inventory. Overseas device operation is unstable, which may disrupt the market [4] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices rebounded with raw materials. Short - term demand for short fiber is still in the off - season, but new capacity is limited, and the recovery of future demand is expected to boost the industry. For bottle chips, the load continues to decline, and price repair is limited under low - start conditions [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures continued to rise, mainly affected by relevant policies. The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and ports are expected to see unexpected destocking this week. Domestic main - producing area enterprises are starting autumn maintenance, but some enterprises may resume work early or postpone maintenance due to good profits. Downstream procurement is for rigid demand, and enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. The peak season of agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the current operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is still low. Domestic downstream demand is weak. Export goods are being shipped to ports, and production enterprises are continuously destocking, but the destocking rate has slowed down. The market supply remains sufficient, and with policy support, the urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices were pushed up by cost due to the fermentation of anti - involution policies, and the futures price was strong. The demand of downstream product enterprises is in the off - season, and social inventory has been accumulating since July. Domestic demand is weak, and export deliveries have decreased. Supply is expected to increase next week. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with cost; in the long term, if the elimination of backward production capacity does not meet expectations, the price may not rise continuously [6] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. Upstream salt has issued an anti - involution document, and attention should be paid to whether it will affect the raw salt industry and drive up the price of caustic soda raw materials. Downstream buyers resist high prices, supply has increased, and inventory has increased month - on - month. Alumina demand provides some support, but non - aluminum downstream demand is average. The short - term market is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the elimination of backward production capacity [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to be strong due to the temporary shutdown of Haitian's device and positive sentiment. Inventory continued to decline, and the spot price increased. The supply is under high pressure. The photovoltaic industry is suffering large losses and is reducing production due to anti - involution policies. In the short term, the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to whether actual policies will be introduced for the small amount of backward production capacity [7] - Glass prices continued to rise, with a 50 - yuan increase in Shahe today. Middle - stream buyers are stocking up, and the industry is in a destocking mode. Industry profits have slightly recovered, and production capacity has fluctuated slightly. Processing orders are weak. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with macro - sentiment. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash at low levels can be considered [7]

source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可 以根据企业的库存情况，做 | EG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 4550-4700 | | | | | 空乙二醇期货来锁定利润， | | | | | | | | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | | 跌 | | 买入看跌期权防止价格大 | EG2509P4450 | 买入 | | 10-30 | | | | | 跌，同时卖出看涨期权降低 | | | 50% | | | | | | 资金成本 | EG2509C4650 | 卖出 | | 60-100 | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏 低，希望根据订单 | 空 | 为了防止乙二醇价格上涨而 抬升采购成本，可以在目前 | EG2509 | 买入 | 50% | 4300-4400 ...