Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates room for OMO rate cuts, LPR cuts, and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a slight decline in the central tendency of the 10Y government bond yield [3][4] Economic Conditions - The current domestic market shows strong supply but weak demand, with structural contradictions still evident, and the foundation for economic recovery needs to be solidified. The manufacturing PMI for October is at 49.0%, remaining below the 50.0% threshold for seven consecutive months [4][25] - The essence of the "anti-involution" policy is correction rather than stimulation, leading to structural and mild impacts on prices. The key variables for future price trends will be the strength of demand recovery and the rhythm of policy coordination [4][25] Valuation Insights - After adjustments, the reasonableness of the 10Y government bond valuation has improved, attributed to the gradual fading of the "seesaw" effect. The correlation coefficient between the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans and the 10Y government bond yield has been consistently high, indicating a strong relationship [4][26][27] - A model was developed to estimate the 10Y government bond yield based on the weighted average interest rate of RMB loans, yielding a formula: 10Y government bond yield = (1.11 × RMB loan weighted average interest rate * 100 - 1.95) / 100, with an adjusted R² of 0.908 [4][27] Policy Environment - The report highlights the central bank's liquidity injection as a significant factor influencing the bond market. The net purchase scale of government bonds in the open market is monitored, indicating the central bank's actions to manage liquidity [29][30] Market Dynamics - The report notes that both the upward and downward space for interest rates in 2025 is limited, suggesting a stable outlook for the bond market [19][32] - The volatility of bond yields has decreased, with the volatility in 2024 recorded at 0.18 and from the beginning of 2025 to November 7 at 0.09, indicating a narrowing and shortening of yield fluctuations [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The re - allocation strategy of amortized bond funds has shifted towards credit bonds, which may be the result of a two - way choice between funds and institutional investors in a low - interest - rate environment. The opening rhythm of amortized bond funds and their impact on the credit bond market are the focuses of this report. The shift in the investment strategy of amortized bond funds to credit bonds helps boost the allocation demand for credit bonds with a remaining term similar to the closed - end period of the funds, driving an excess return market for corresponding - term varieties [2][8][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Amortized Bond Funds Enter a Concentrated Opening Period - Amortized bond funds were mainly issued intensively from 2019 - 2020, with a relatively high proportion of products with a closed - end period of 3 - 5 years and over 5 years. From September 2025 to September 2026, the monthly opening scale of amortized bond funds generally exceeded 40 billion yuan. Specifically, from November 2025 to March 2026, the expected opening scales are 72.7 billion yuan, 107.7 billion yuan, 89.2 billion yuan, 51 billion yuan, and 116.2 billion yuan respectively [3][15][19]. - The opening of amortized bond funds is related to their issuance time. For example, products with a 24 - month, 36 - month, 39 - month closed - end period issued in 2019 and a 63 - month, 66 - month closed - end period issued in 2020 are entering a concentrated opening period [3][19]. 3.2 The Allocation Strategy of Amortized Bond Funds Shifts to Credit Bonds - Amortized bond funds are products that benefited from the transition period of the asset management regulations. New issuance has been strictly restricted, and they are currently in a state of stock operation with a small overall scale increase. The increase in credit bond allocation mainly comes from the style shift [21][26]. - At the beginning of their establishment, amortized bond funds preferred to allocate interest - rate bonds (mainly policy - financial bonds). Since 2025, their asset allocation has tilted towards credit bonds, with the credit bond holding scale and proportion continuously rising. By the end of 2024, the market value of credit bonds held by amortized bond funds was only 3.55 billion yuan, accounting for only 1.8%. As of the third quarter of 2025, the market value climbed to 29.28 billion yuan, accounting for 15.4% [4][26]. - Among the amortized bond funds that opened in the first three quarters of 2025, the credit style has become the mainstream strategy. Among 40 amortized bond funds with available data, 19 funds (63%) have a credit bond holding proportion of over 70%. Among 10 amortized bond funds that restarted operations in 2025, 8 funds (80%) have a credit bond holding proportion of over 80% [31]. 3.3 The Concentrated Opening of Amortized Bond Funds Drives the Demand for Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds - Amortized bond funds mainly prefer medium - and high - grade credit bonds, with moderate downward adjustment in medium - and short - term durations. In the top five credit bond holdings, the proportion of bonds with an implied rating of AA + and above is relatively high. For example, in the 3 - 5 - year period, all are AA + and above, with AA A - and above accounting for 86% [6][36]. - Amortized bond funds usually choose bonds with a remaining term close to their closed - end period for investment. The weighted average remaining term of the top five credit bond holdings of most amortized bond funds is very close to the remaining term of the fund until the next opening day [37][39]. - In October 2025, the opening scale of amortized bond funds was about 53.4 billion yuan, and the opening scale of 63 - month closed - end products was 32.4 billion yuan, accounting for 61%. Since late October, the net purchase of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds by funds has significantly increased, pushing down yields and narrowing spreads. On November 5th compared to October 21st, the yield of the 5 - year medium - and short - term note AAA dropped by 19bp, the credit spread narrowed by 18bp, and the 5Y - 1Y term spread also significantly narrowed by 17bp [8][40]. - In the future, the opening rhythm of amortized bond funds will affect the demand for credit bonds of corresponding terms. For example, in November 2025, the opening scale of 63 - month amortized bond funds is relatively large, which may still have a demand for medium - and high - grade 5 - year - old credit bonds; in December, the opening scale of 36 - month and 24 - month amortized bond funds is relatively large, which may boost the demand for 2 - 3 - year credit bonds [9][44].

Core Viewpoint - China has been continuously reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a reduction exceeding 100 billion since December 2022, leading to a total holding below 1 trillion dollars. There are predictions that China may completely divest from U.S. Treasuries [1]. Group 1: Reasons for Reducing Holdings - The ongoing interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the potential negative impact on the U.S. economy, increasing debt repayment pressure and the risk of default [3]. - Reducing U.S. Treasury holdings has become a risk-averse strategy for China [4]. - Initially, China held a large amount of U.S. Treasuries due to trade surpluses and the need to utilize excess dollar reserves, as well as the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries due to their safety, liquidity, and relatively higher yields [6]. Group 2: Implications of Complete Divestment - A concentrated sell-off of nearly 1 trillion dollars in U.S. Treasuries would create a temporary shock to the U.S. Treasury market, but it is expected that the Federal Reserve or U.S. financial institutions would be able to absorb these sales [6]. - The current U.S. national debt has reached an astonishing 30.3 trillion dollars, significantly exceeding its GDP, which raises concerns about potential default risks, prompting China to reduce its holdings preemptively [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market's strong demand for Chinese dollar bonds contradicts the lower credit rating assigned by international rating agencies, indicating a significant trust in China's sovereign creditworthiness despite the disparity in ratings [1][9][25]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The recent issuance of Chinese dollar bonds saw a three-year interest rate of 3.646% and a five-year interest rate of 3.787%, which are nearly identical to U.S. Treasury bond rates for the same maturities [3][4]. - The subscription scale for these bonds reached 30 times the issuance amount, setting a historical record [4][25]. Group 2: Rating Agencies and Market Perception - International rating agencies, such as Moody's, S&P, and Fitch, have rated China's sovereign credit at A1, which is lower than the AA1 rating for the U.S. [6][9]. - Despite the lower rating, the market has shown that lending to China is perceived as equally safe as lending to the U.S., reflecting a significant shift in investor confidence [7][9]. Group 3: Reasons for Global Investor Interest - The current global high-interest rate environment and inflation pressures in major economies have led investors to seek stable and high-quality assets, making Chinese sovereign bonds an attractive option [13][15]. - China's substantial foreign exchange reserves, strong manufacturing base, and expanding market size contribute to international confidence in its ability to meet debt obligations [18][20]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The successful bond issuance may challenge the long-standing monopoly of the U.S. dollar in global pricing, suggesting a potential diversification of dollar-denominated credit [20][22]. - This event serves as a model for emerging market countries, demonstrating that with a solid economic foundation and good credit, they can achieve fair treatment in international capital markets [24][25].

Core Insights - The current economic environment has led to a widespread perception that earning money has become significantly more difficult, driven by stagnant wages, rising living costs, and increased competition in the job market [1][10]. Income and Employment - Official data indicates that the average wage growth for residents in the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.4%, but the actual disposable income has not seen substantial increases due to rising living costs [1]. - The median income growth rate of 4.5% is lower than the average, suggesting that most ordinary individuals are falling behind [1]. - Many companies are unable to provide salary increases or bonuses, leading employees to seek side jobs, with 60% of young workers engaging in activities like content creation and ride-sharing to supplement their income [1]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has become more cautious, with clothing expenditure growing only 1.6% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift towards prioritizing essential purchases [3]. - The trend of "non-essential spending" has decreased, as individuals are more likely to compare prices and seek value, leading to a decline in discretionary purchases [8]. Investment Landscape - The growth in residents' net property income was only 1.7%, the slowest among all income sources, reflecting a challenging investment environment [4]. - The decline in bank wealth management product yields below 3% and significant losses in stocks and funds have driven individuals to seek alternative investments, such as gold, which saw a 24.55% increase in consumption [4]. Job Market Dynamics - The job market has become increasingly competitive, with fewer job openings and higher requirements for candidates, making it difficult for fresh graduates to secure positions [7]. - The rise of "flexible employment" has led many individuals to rely on gig work, which often results in unstable income [7]. Economic Sentiment - The overall sentiment reflects a collective struggle with earning money, attributed to various factors including corporate profitability pressures, rational consumer demand, market risks, and reduced job supply [10]. - Despite these challenges, individuals are adapting by exploring side jobs and alternative investment strategies, indicating resilience in the face of economic shifts [10].

随着央行买债的影响告一段落，市场关注点重回基本面和权益市场表现，市场利率下行缺乏驱动，市场 观望氛围渐浓，债市重回偏弱震荡格局。近期，在政策真空期下，债市逐渐从"强预期"向"弱现实"回 归，由于消息面平静，债市延续区间震荡走势。上证指数重回4000点，以及公募基金赎回费率新规消息 扰动，对债市情绪仍有压制作用。 四季度债市进入供给淡季，供需结构好转，但机构"抢跑"或弱于往年，需求端对债市的支撑有限。当前 银行仍面临负债端稳定性压力，叠加在宏观面支撑下，明年一季度股市表现仍然可期，机构行为或偏保 守，"抢跑"积极性有限。 当前基本面分化磨底特征未变，内需有待强化，外需仍有韧性但旺季逐渐过去。受食品供给扰动、"反 内卷"政策等拉动，10月CPI和PPI均有所修复，且强于预期，但分化特征明显，内生动能及广谱性消费 需求仍偏弱，制约价格修复弹性。 综上，笔者认为，当前债市多空因素交织，整体"胜率有余、赔率不足"，经济基本面不强和风险偏好偏 强仍是主要矛盾。四季度基本面压力较大，供给端不强、央行重启买债操作支撑债市持续修复。不过在 央行购债规模受限、宏观面偏积极、股市配置性价比较高、公募基金销售新规仍待落地背景下，利率 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's net investment in government bonds in October 2025 was 20 billion yuan, which is lower than the monthly net purchases in 2024, which ranged from 100 billion to 300 billion yuan [1][8] - Since June 2025, major banks have significantly increased their net purchases of government bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, with monthly net purchases exceeding 230 billion yuan [1][8] - The liquidity outlook remains relatively loose, with a weekly net payment of 369.2 billion yuan in government bonds, the highest in two months, despite low maturity amounts and the absence of tax periods [2][9] Group 2 - The sentiment in the secondary market for local government bonds has been positive since late October, with insurance and fund institutions being the main net buyers, particularly in the 15-20 year and 3-5 year maturities [2][18] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is currently less than one-fifth of the planned 500 billion yuan, with a focus on maturities that may widen the spread between local government bonds and national bonds [3][18] - The report highlights that the newly issued bonds in November have an implied tax rate of 3% or below, with many bonds deviating significantly from secondary market pricing [3][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data of stock index futures and treasury bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/11/10, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield was 4.117, with a latest change of 0.019, a one - week change of 0.006, a one - month change of 0.083, and a one - year change of - 0.168 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Different economies also show different trends. The US 2 - year treasury bond yield on 2025/11/10 was 3.570, with a latest change of - 0.060, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.540 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates have different changes. For example, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate on 2025/11/10 was 5.301, with a latest change of - 0.62%, a one - week change of - 1.07%, a one - month change of - 3.02%, and a one - year change of - 8.41% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices of various economies have different performances. For instance, the S&P 500 index value on 2025/11/10 was 6832.430, with a latest change of 0.51%, a one - week change of 0.31%, a one - month change of - (not provided), and a one - year change of - (not provided) [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices have different changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a one - month change of - 0.17% and a one - year change of 0.01% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing price of A - shares was 4018.60, with a change of 0.53%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4695.05, with a change of 0.35% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE(TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.36, with a环比 change of 0.08. The PE(TTM) of the S&P 500 was 28.41, with a环比 change of 0.44 [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.60, with a环比 change of - 0.08. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.38, with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 456.59, and the 5 - day average was - 482.23 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21744.54, with a环比 change of 1754.01 [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 23.05, with a magnitude of - 0.49%. The basis of IH was 0.14, with a magnitude of 0.00% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Price and Change**: The closing price of T00 was 108.485, with a change of 0.00%. The closing price of TF00 was 105.940, with a change of 0.00% [6]. - **Funding Rate**: The R001 was 1.5226%, with a daily change of 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5039%, with a daily change of 3.00 BP [6].

Hot News - In October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale was 12.058 million, a growth of 29.9% [4]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China has suspended the implementation of countermeasures against the US Section 301 investigation on the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [4]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.44%, and the palm oil production was 2,043,886 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.02% [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of domestic gold ETFs was 79.015 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164.03%. The gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons from last Thursday, a decline of 0.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7977 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0169 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.9085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0089 million tons [4]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Soda ash, glass, coking coal, SHFE copper, SHFE gold [5]. - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.25%, precious metals rose 29.09%, oilseeds rose 9.52%, non-ferrous metals rose 23.21%, soft commodities rose 2.72%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.02%, energy rose 2.90%, chemicals rose 11.18%, grains rose 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.90% [5]. Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.53 | Fetching... | 19.90 | | | SSE 50 | 0.51 | -0.12 | 13.75 | | | CSI 300 | 0.35 | -0.29 | 19.32 | | | CSI 500 | 0.22 | -1.39 | 28.26 | | | S&P 500 | 1.54 | -0.64 | 16.17 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.55 | 0.11 | 32.85 | | | German DAX | 1.65 | 0.38 | 20.35 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.26 | -4.20 | 27.62 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 19.75 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.18 | -0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.56 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.38 | -0.09 | 2.81 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.47 | -2.09 | -16.53 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.88 | -0.57 | 56.84 | | | LME Copper | 1.47 | -1.46 | 23.83 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.61 | -2.67 | 30.21 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.43 | -8.17 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 3.27 | 9.97 | [7]

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that credit bond ETFs will continue to attract capital inflows, with a notable recovery in liquidity observed in October [5][8] - The total circulation scale of credit bond ETFs has approached 500 billion yuan, significantly surpassing that of interest rate bond ETFs, reflecting a strong market sentiment [5][8] - The report anticipates that the credit bond ETF's discount rate may further compress, although transitioning to a premium without a major market event remains challenging [5][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the issuance volume of credit bonds has increased, with a net financing of 92 billion yuan recorded, indicating a positive shift in the financing landscape [29][30] - The average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ rated bonds have decreased, with the average rates at 2.07% and 2.27% respectively, showing a downward trend in financing costs [29][30] - The credit spreads across various grades have narrowed, particularly for longer maturities, with significant compressions observed in the AA grade [32][34]