Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year" period has seen significant achievements in Shanxi's development, with economic stability and progress in high-quality development, resource-based economic transformation, and innovation integration [8][9] - The "15th Five-Year" period is critical for Shanxi to advance towards modernization, focusing on high-quality development and deepening transformation [10][11] - The overall development environment for Shanxi is more favorable than challenging, with strong support from national policies and strategic missions [12][13] Summary by Sections Achievements During the 14th Five-Year Plan - Economic growth has been steady, with GDP reaching new heights and significant progress in high-quality development [8] - The province has made strides in energy security, technological innovation, and comprehensive reforms, enhancing its competitive edge [9] Key Requirements and Strategic Positioning for the 15th Five-Year Plan - The period is essential for achieving breakthroughs in resource-based economic transformation and narrowing the gap with national averages in income and innovation [10][11] - Shanxi aims to build a modern industrial system that reflects its characteristics and advantages, focusing on energy revolution and ecological protection [16][17] Major Goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan - High-quality development is expected to yield significant results, with improvements in productivity, consumer spending, and industrial modernization [22] - The transition of the resource-based economy is anticipated to progress significantly, with advancements in energy transition and the emergence of new pillar industries [22][23] Focus on Energy Transition and Industrial Upgrade - Shanxi is committed to deepening energy reforms and exploring new paths for energy transition, aiming to shift from a coal-dominated economy to a diversified energy powerhouse [26][27] - The province will enhance traditional industries and foster emerging sectors, including advanced manufacturing and new materials [30][31] Promotion of Cultural Tourism and Agriculture - The report emphasizes the integration of cultural tourism with local resources to create a robust tourism industry, enhancing Shanxi's cultural influence [20][32] - Agricultural development will focus on organic and high-efficiency practices, promoting local specialties and deep processing of agricultural products [30][32] Enhancing Innovation and Talent Development - The report highlights the importance of fostering an innovation ecosystem that integrates education, technology, and talent development to support Shanxi's transformation [36][39] - Strengthening the collaboration between educational institutions and industries is crucial for cultivating a skilled workforce [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity futures are expected to turn from weak to strong after early March. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching an end, the subsequent rebound path remains unclear. Investors or operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations [9][38]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to the combined effects of cost and demand. The high international energy prices and the expected resumption of production by downstream steel mills will support the prices [10][56]. - The iron ore price is expected to turn from weak to strong. Although the supply is relatively tight in the first quarter and the demand faces some policy pressure during the Two Sessions, the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. However, the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will limit the upside space of the iron ore price [12][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendations | Strategy Type | Target | Latest Price | Direction | Dominant Factors | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Single - side Strategy | RB2605 | 3088 | Oscillating and Bullish | Five major steel products' weekly output returns to a low level, weekly demand recovers to the pre - Spring Festival level, and the low steel output will conflict with the warming spring demand [6]. | | | HC2605 | 3230 | Oscillating and Bullish | The second round of spot price increase of coke was partially implemented on March 6, steel mills' coke inventory decreased significantly, port and coking enterprise coke inventory increased, the tense situation in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international energy prices, and the coking coal and coke market was strengthened by the uncertainty of international energy supply [6]. | | | J2605 | 1695.5 | Oscillating and Bullish | The tense situation in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international energy prices, and the coking coal and coke market was strengthened by the uncertainty of international energy supply. The steel mills' and coking plants' coking coal inventory decreased significantly in the past two weeks [6]. | | | JM2605 | 1123 | Oscillating and Bullish | Similar to J2605, the tense situation in the Middle East and the significant decline in coking coal inventory of steel mills and coking plants [6]. | | Inter - period Arbitrage | I2605 | 772 | Turning from Weak to Strong | The shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil decreased, the output of five major steel products increased slightly, demand improved, the daily average pig iron output decreased and may rebound after the Two Sessions, steel mills' inventory decreased naturally, and port inventory remained at a high level [6]. | 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On March 6, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market mostly declined or slightly increased. The price of 20mm grade - 3 rebar in the main market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in the main market decreased by 10 yuan/ton to increased by 10 yuan/ton [13]. - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel Production**: On March 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide decreased significantly (down 2.13 percentage points to 85.32%). The average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in mid - February increased for two consecutive ten - day periods and reached a new high since mid - October last year (up 8.34 tons or 4.29% to 202.95 tons compared with early February) [13]. - **Pig Iron Production and Electric Furnace Production**: On March 6, the national daily average pig iron output decreased significantly and gave back the increase since late January (down 5.69 tons or 2.44% to 227.59 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly from the lowest level since mid - February last year (up 13.36 percentage points to 20.71%) [17]. - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: On March 6, the weekly output of rebar of major steel mills nationwide increased from the lowest level since early September 2024 (up 8.21 tons or 4.97% to 173.31 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil of major steel mills decreased for two consecutive weeks from the highest level since mid - December last year (down 8.50 tons or 2.75% to 301.11 tons). The rebar inventory of major steel mills increased for seven consecutive weeks and reached a new high since late February last year (up 5.09 tons or 2.19% to 237.93 tons), and the hot - rolled coil inventory of major steel mills decreased from the highest level since mid - February last year (down 4.70 tons or 4.96% to 90.08 tons) [18]. - **Social Inventory**: On March 6, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased for nine consecutive weeks from the lowest level since early January last year and reached a new high since mid - May 2024 (up 69.99 tons or 12.33% to 637.75 tons). The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased for five consecutive weeks from the lowest level since late August last year and reached a new high since mid - April 2020 (up 24.24 tons or 6.78% to 381.61 tons) [22]. - **Downstream Demand**: From January to December last year, the national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year (the decline increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with January to November last year). The national automobile production increased by 9.8% year - on - year (the increase narrowed by 1.0 percentage point compared with January to November last year). The national metal - cutting machine tool production increased by 9.7% year - on - year (the increase narrowed by 3.0 percentage points compared with January to November last year). The production of air conditioners, household refrigerators, and household washing machines increased by 0.7%, 1.6%, and 4.8% respectively year - on - year (decreased by 0.9, increased by 0.4, and decreased by 1.5 percentage points respectively compared with January to November last year) [22]. - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: On March 6, the apparent consumption of rebar increased significantly from the lowest level since late February 2024 (up 64.68 tons or 192.79% to 98.23 tons), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil rebounded (up 13.20 tons or 4.92% to 281.57 tons). The disk profit of the rebar 2605 contract showed a significant increase in the loss (down 43.4 yuan/ton to - 295.0 yuan/ton) [28]. - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: On March 6, the gross profit per ton of long - process steel mills' rebar calculated by the main spot prices showed an increase in the loss for two consecutive weeks (down 32.4 yuan/ton to - 90.8 yuan/ton), and the gross profit per ton of short - process steel mills' rebar (at normal electricity price) increased in the loss for two consecutive weeks (down 10.0 yuan/ton to - 104.4 yuan/ton) [33]. 3.2.2 Conclusions and Suggestions - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After early March, the black - series commodity futures are expected to turn from weak to strong. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be approaching an end, the subsequent rebound path remains unclear, and investors or operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations [35][38]. - **Basis between Futures and Spot**: On March 6, the basis of rebar narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70 - 140 yuan/ton in the future. The basis of hot - rolled coil also narrowed for two consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of - 30 - 30 yuan/ton in the future [39][41]. 3.3 Coke and Coking Coal 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: On March 6, the prices of major coke in the spot market were basically stable, and the prices of major coking coal in some markets decreased. The price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in the main market remained unchanged, and the aggregated price of some main coking coal markets decreased by 40 yuan/ton to remained unchanged [43]. - **Weekly Output and Capacity Utilization**: On March 6, the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking plants nationwide decreased from the highest level since mid - December last year (down 0.38 tons or 0.75% to 50.39 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased from the highest level since late October last year (down 0.54 percentage points to 72.29%). The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks (down 0.10 tons or 0.21% to 47.00 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased for two consecutive weeks (down 0.20 percentage points to 85.89%) [43]. - **Inventory and Coking Plant Profit**: On March 6, the coke inventory at ports increased after two consecutive weeks of decline (up 6.01 tons or 3.05% to 203.11 tons). The coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased for three consecutive weeks from the highest level since early February last year (down 3.85 tons or 0.57% to 671.26 tons). The coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a new high since early July last year (up 1.01 tons or 1.62% to 63.20 tons). The average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises turned from loss to profit after nine consecutive weeks of loss (up 24 yuan to 17 yuan) [47]. - **Output, Operating Rate, and Inventory of Sample Mines**: On March 6, the daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since January 2021 (up 9.88 tons or 15.22% to 74.78 tons), and the operating rate of 523 sample mines increased significantly for two consecutive weeks from the lowest level since January 2021 (up 14.08 percentage points to 82.32%). The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased for two consecutive weeks and reached a new high since mid - January (up 28.60 tons or 11.10% to 286.26 tons), and the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased significantly (up 15.70 tons or 2.92% to 552.89 tons) [48]. - **Monthly Import and Weekly Inventory of Coking Coal**: From January to December last year, China's coking coal imports were 1.1863 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.66% in absolute value, and the decline narrowed by 3.01 percentage points compared with January to November last year). On March 6, the coking coal inventory at ports decreased (down 4.27 tons or 1.57% to 267.70 tons). The coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants decreased significantly for three consecutive weeks and reached a new low since mid - September last year (down 33.31 tons or 4.02% to 796.15 tons). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased significantly for three consecutive weeks and reached a new low since late June last year (down 16.82 tons or 2.12% to 775.64 tons) [52]. - **Monthly Output of Raw Coal and Coke**: From January to December last year, China's raw coal output was 4.832 billion tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.53% in absolute value, and the increase narrowed by 0.31 percentage point compared with January to November last year). China's coke output was 504 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.03% in absolute value, and the increase narrowed by 0.16 percentage point compared with January to November last year) [52]. 3.3.2 Conclusions and Suggestions The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to rise due to the combined effects of cost and demand. The high international energy prices and the expected resumption of production by downstream steel mills will support the prices [56]. 3.4 Iron Ore 3.4.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of March 5, the 62% Platts iron ore index rebounded for two consecutive weeks (up 1.6 dollars/ton or 1.60% to 101.35 dollars/ton). As of March 6, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port rebounded slightly (up 14 yuan/ton or 1.87% to 763 yuan/ton). Among high - grade ores, the spread between 65% Carajas fines and PB fines remained unchanged at 131 yuan/ton, and the spread between 62.5% PB lumps and PB fines widened (up 3 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton). Among low - grade ores, the spread between 60.5% Jinbuba fines and PB fines remained unchanged at - 48 yuan/ton, and the spread between 56.5% Super Special fines and PB fines widened (down 3 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton) [57]. - **Inventory and Port Clearance Volume**: On March 6, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to increase, up 25.90 tons to 17117.86 tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports rebounded (up 12.60 tons to 311.08 tons). The available days of imported ore inventory of steel mills remained unchanged at 23 days. The sintered powder ore inventory of imported ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased (down 54.14 tons or 3.96% to 1314.02 tons), and the sintered powder ore inventory of domestic ore of 64 sample steel mills decreased (down 4.80 tons or 5.89% to 76.74 tons) [63]. - **Shipment and Arrival**: In the week of February 27, the iron ore shipment from Australia (19 ports) was 1879.7 tons, 89.3 tons less than the previous week, and the shipment from Australia to China was 1509.2 tons, 158.1 tons less than the previous week. The shipment from Brazil was 737.7 tons, 51.1 tons more than the previous week. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 2146.9 tons, 5.5 tons less than the previous week, at a relatively low level. In terms of monthly cumulative data, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks were 9244.8 tons, 244 tons less than the previous four - week period, a decrease of 2.57%. The shipment from Australia to China was 5567.6 tons, accounting for 84.91% of Australia's total shipments, 364.3 tons less than the previous four - week period. The arrival volume in the past four weeks was 9078.6 tons, 1516.2 tons or 14.31% less than the previous four - week period. It is expected that the subsequent shipments may recover slightly, but affected by weather factors in the first quarter, the overall level will be relatively low. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a low level in early March [65]. - **Domestic Ore Output and Operation**: From January to December 2025, the domestic iron ore output was 984 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59% (adjusted), and the decline increased by 2.58 percentage points compared with January to November 2025. As of March 6, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises rebounded (up 2.71 percentage points to 58.05% compared with the previous week). Affected by a local gold mine accident before the Spring Festival, some private mines in Shandong are still shut down, and the resumption time has been postponed. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, some mines are expected to shut down temporarily. It is expected that the iron concentrate output

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the US - Iran situation has significantly boosted the bullish sentiment in the commodity market, which has a positive impact on the energy and strategic resource - related varieties, including coking coal and coke. However, in the short term, the downstream steel mills and coking plants are in the active de - stocking stage, which restricts the demand for coking coal and coke. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is insufficient support for a sharp price rebound. In the long - term, the report is optimistic about the coking coal price, especially during the period from June to October [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In February, the coking coal futures price fluctuated downward, with a monthly decline of 53 yuan/ton or - 4.55%. In early March, it rebounded slightly, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or + 3.06%. The coking coal price was affected by the escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions". The coking coal price was weak in the first week after the Spring Festival due to factors such as downstream de - stocking and the resumption of coal mine production. The coking coal price is currently testing the support near 1100 yuan/ton. The coke price also fluctuated downward in February, with a monthly decline of 79.5 yuan/ton or - 4.61%, and rebounded slightly in March, with a weekly increase of 61 yuan/ton or + 3.71%, mainly following the cost - side coking coal price [14][15][20]. - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke generally declined. The spot prices of various coking coal varieties and coke were at a discount to the futures prices, with different degrees of premium. - **Variety Positions**: The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure. - **Domestic Production**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines increased by 9.88 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output decreased by about 54.39 tons or - 0.90% year - on - year. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.99 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 157.71 tons or + 11.34% year - on - year. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level in the same period of history. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal was - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window was still closed. - **Demand**: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased by 0.45 tons month - on - month. The coking profit of independent coking plants was 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 5.69 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate was 38.10%, a decrease of 1.73 pct month - on - month. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 126.7 tons month - on - month, and the steel inventory continued to accumulate [21]. - **Supply - Demand Structure and Outlook**: The daily average supply of coking coal in the country is about 149.84 tons, and the demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal is 149.21 tons and 146.93 tons respectively. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is relatively balanced in the short - term, but it is evaluated as relatively loose considering the downstream de - stocking. The demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.24 tons, slightly lower than the daily average coke output. In the short - term, due to the change in market sentiment, short - selling operations may not be appropriate. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties. In the long - term, the report is optimistic about the coking coal price, especially from June to October [22]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: As of March 5, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal was 1476 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54.4 yuan/ton month - on - month. The price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month [26][37]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of coking coal and coke generally showed a premium situation. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 95 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 68.5 yuan/ton. Both maintained a Contango structure [44][50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of March 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal was 668,300 lots, a decrease of 50,500 lots month - on - month. The total unilateral position of coke was 41,200 lots, a decrease of 3,100 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the positions of the April and June contracts are significantly higher than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure [62][63]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, JM/I increased by 0.01, HC/JM decreased by 0.05, J/I increased by 0.04, HC/J decreased by 0.05, and JM/J decreased by 0.01. The valuation of coking coal and coke relative to iron ore is still at a low level [67][71]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Production**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 74.78 tons, an increase of 9.88 tons month - on - month. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 19.9 tons, an increase of 2.99 tons month - on - month [76][78]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remained at a high level in the same period of history. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal was - 265 yuan/ton, and the import window was still closed. In 2025, the cumulative imports of Mongolian, Russian, Canadian, and Australian coking coal showed different trends, while the import of US coking coal was still stagnant [81][84][87][91]. - **Coke Production**: The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants was 110.94 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons month - on - month. The coking profit of independent coking plants was 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton month - on - month [94]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons month - on - month. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.10%, a decrease of 1.73 pct month - on - month. The apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 126.7 tons month - on - month, and the steel inventory continued to accumulate [100][110]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The daily average supply of coking coal in the country is about 149.84 tons, and the demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal is 149.21 tons and 146.93 tons respectively. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is relatively balanced in the short - term, but it is evaluated as relatively loose considering the downstream de - stocking. The demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.24 tons, slightly lower than the daily average coke output [112]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of March 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 41.9 tons month - on - month, and the total coke inventory increased by 4.64 tons month - on - month. The inventory of coking coal in sample mines increased, while the inventories of coking coal in independent coking plants and steel mills decreased (active de - stocking). The inventory of coke in independent coking plants increased, the inventory of coke in steel mills decreased (active de - stocking), and the inventory of coke in ports increased [115][116].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the coking coal market opened higher and rose during the day. Although the international Middle - East geopolitical conflict and strong expectations of domestic Two Sessions policies have jointly pushed up coking coal prices, the fundamental situation is weak. The domestic mines are gradually resuming work, with a significant 20% increase in the operating load this period. After the holiday, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons, while independent coking enterprises and steel mills continued to reduce their inventories. The steel mill operating load has dropped, and the post - holiday resumption of production has fallen short of expectations. The first round of coke price cuts started on Monday and is expected to be implemented on Friday. Caution is advised regarding potential market pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and rose during the day. The domestic mines are in the process of resuming work, with a 20% increase in the operating load. After the holiday, the coking coal mine inventory increased by 286,000 tons, independent coking enterprises' inventory decreased by about 494,100 tons, and steel mills' inventory decreased by 168,200 tons. The steel mill operating rate is 77.71%, and the post - holiday resumption of production is less than expected. The first round of coke price cuts started on Monday and is expected to be implemented on Friday. The international Middle - East geopolitical conflict and strong expectations of domestic Two Sessions policies have jointly pushed up coking coal prices, but caution is needed for potential market pullbacks [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 coking raw coal is 1,021 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1,123 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Data**: From February 27th to March 5th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 82.32%, a month - on - month increase of 14.08 percentage points. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 744,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 98,800 tons [4]. - **Demand Data**: From March 1st to March 5th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 639,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,000 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2,275,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 569,000 tons [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The policy stimulus for the real estate industry during the Two Sessions has limited impact on the steel demand for new construction. The steel products market is under pressure, and the overall trend is oscillating weakly [3]. - The iron ore market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. High supply and low demand limit the upside potential of prices, but there is short - term support from inventory replenishment by steel mills [23]. - In the coal - coke market, from March to April, it enters the verification period of terminal demand. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [34]. - For ferroalloys, the price of ferromanganese is supported by news about manganese ore in the short term, but may be restricted by high inventory later. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good, but its upside potential is limited due to the weak downstream of the black industry [49]. - In the soda ash market, supply - side maintenance may increase, which will affect production. The inventory situation is better than expected. The upside price space is limited, and the downside space depends on inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period, with weak production and sales. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside potential, and demand needs to be verified [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3141 yuan/ton, up from 3132 yuan/ton on March 5 [4]. - **Market Situation**: The policy on real estate during the Two Sessions focuses on the revitalization of existing commercial housing and the construction of affordable housing, with limited impact on the steel demand for new construction. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is at a high level, and the fundamentals of steel products are under pressure, lacking the core driving force for price increase [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 729 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan from the previous day. The 05 contract was 772 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [24]. - **Market Situation**: The current core pattern is weak supply and demand. Rain in the Southern Hemisphere has slowed down the shipping rhythm, and steel mills have increased maintenance. High supply and low demand limit the upside potential of prices, but there is short - term support from inventory replenishment by steel mills [23]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5, and the disk coking profit was - 18 yuan/ton [35][38]. - **Market Situation**: From March to April, it enters the verification period of terminal demand. The late Spring Festival this year may lead to a slow post - holiday resumption of work. Uncertain factors in the Middle East route may suppress short - term steel exports. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening of macro - sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 138 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 70 yuan/ton [50][51]. - **Market Situation**: The price of ferromanganese is supported by news about manganese ore in the short term, but may be restricted by high inventory later. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good, but its upside potential is limited due to the weak downstream of the black industry [49]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1242 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.39% [67]. - **Market Situation**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, which will affect production. The inventory situation is better than expected. The upside price space is limited, and the downside space depends on inventory accumulation [66]. Glass - **Price Data**: On March 6, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1087 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day, with a daily increase of 3.03% [90]. - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in the recovery period, with weak production and sales. High intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside potential, and demand needs to be verified [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market maintained a sideways shock trend. The coking coal fundamentals lack driving forces, with the upside limited by the restricted incremental space of post - holiday downstream demand and the downside supported by the energy premium from rising crude oil prices. The coke futures market follows the coking coal market, but its elasticity is constrained by inventory accumulation pressure [6][35][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures market this week showed a sideways shock trend. For coking coal, after the Spring Festival, domestic mines resumed work earlier and gradually returned to pre - holiday levels, while coal washing plants resumed work later. Domestic supply has limited growth. Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to pre - holiday high levels. Independent coking enterprises and steel mills mainly consume their own inventory and have low restocking willingness. For coke, during the Two Sessions, the overall coke production and hot metal production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. The profit of coking enterprises per ton of coke improved, but steel mills' profits were under pressure, leading to a new round of price cuts [6]. 3.2 Market Focus - **Data**: According to Mysteel, the total global coal shipping volume this week was 20.285 million tons, a 6.6% week - on - week increase. The shipping volume to China was 3.664 million tons, a 16.1% week - on - week decrease [7]. - **Policy Opinions**: During the Two Sessions, relevant representatives proposed that coal production capacity adjustment should shift from administrative to market - based regulation, and pointed out the trend of deep - mining of coal mines in China [7]. - **Main Views**: After the Spring Festival, coking coal supply gradually recovered; mine enterprise inventory removal was difficult; independent coking enterprises and steel mills mainly consumed their own inventory; during the Two Sessions, the coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased slightly; hot metal production and coke consumption decreased simultaneously; a new round of coke price cuts was initiated [7]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The coking coal inventory structure has improved; domestic macro - policies are positive; geopolitical conflicts stimulate oil price increases, bringing a premium to coal in the same energy sector [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level; during the Two Sessions, hot metal production declined; post - holiday downstream enterprises mainly consume their own inventory and have weak restocking motivation [10]. 3.4 Macro - Policy Analysis - **Economic Goals**: The government work report in 2026 sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate at around 5.5%, and the goal of creating over 12 million new urban jobs. The consumer price increase is expected to be around 2% [11]. - **Policy Combinations**: Fiscal policy is more proactive, with a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.27 trillion yuan in general public budget expenditures, and the issuance of special treasury bonds. Monetary policy is moderately loose, aiming to promote economic growth and price recovery, and maintain reasonable liquidity [11]. - **Policy Focus**: The report focuses on building a strong domestic market, with "new - quality productivity" as the main line. It promotes consumer spending through special treasury bonds, increases central budget investment, and supports the development of new - quality productivity - related industries [12]. 3.5 Data Analysis - **Supply Recovery**: As of the week of March 6, the开工 rate of 523 sample mines was 82.32%, a 14.08% week - on - week increase, and the daily output increased by 9880 tons. The开工 rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26.57%, a 3.84% week - on - week increase, and the daily output increased by 2990 tons. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to pre - holiday high levels [15]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of March 6, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 286,000 tons, while that of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased by 104,000 tons, and the port coking coal inventory decreased by 42,700 tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased, and independent coking enterprises' coke inventory increased [17][20][24]. - **Production and Consumption**: During the Two Sessions, the production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased slightly. The coke consumption and hot metal production also decreased [26][28]. - **Price Adjustment**: As of March 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 17 yuan/ton, and the profit rate of 247 steel enterprises decreased. A new round of coke price cuts was initiated and implemented on Friday [30]. - **Basis Structure**: The double - coking futures market showed a sideways shock trend [32]. 3.6 Future Outlook - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal fundamentals lack driving forces. The upside is limited by post - holiday downstream demand, and the downside is supported by energy premiums. The market will mainly fluctuate sideways [35]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market follows the coking coal market, but its elasticity is constrained by inventory accumulation. During the Two Sessions, coke production and demand decreased, and a new round of price cuts was implemented [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - position suggestion for coking coal and coke futures at low prices, with a short - term bullish view on the market and a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations, suggesting trading in bands [1][5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the coking coal and coke futures have large price fluctuations but no clear trend. Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil and gas prices, which in turn support coking coal prices through the transmission chain of oil and gas - thermal coal - marginal coal (coking coal blend) - prime coking coal. However, due to the long transmission chain and sufficient domestic coking coal supply, it's difficult to drive up coking coal prices significantly [5]. - The current valuation of coking coal is low. Affected by market sentiment spill - over, the coking coal and coke futures are expected to have certain support in the short term, showing a small upward wave. Attention should be paid to the price performance of oil and gas and thermal coal. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is difficult to change qualitatively, and it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, not yet forming a trend - based opportunity. Band trading is recommended [5]. - For unilateral trading, due to large price fluctuations and unclear trends, cautious investors are advised to wait and see. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, investors can also try long positions at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and band trading is recommended. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Due to large price fluctuations and unclear trends, cautious investors are advised to wait and see. From the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio, investors can try long positions at low prices. In the medium term, it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and band trading is recommended [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal has declined this week, with major coal types dropping by 30 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian coal fluctuated with the futures market. The overall expectation of the black market is weak, and downstream buyers are cautious in purchasing raw materials. With the rapid resumption of coal mine production and high customs clearance of Mongolian coal, coal prices are under pressure. However, due to the sharp rise in international energy prices, the downward space for spot prices is expected to be limited. The domestic coking coal supply is increasing, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines rising to 82.32% (+14.08%). The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is high, and the inventory pressure is emerging. The demand for coking coal has decreased slightly, with the coke output dropping slightly. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the inventory of coal mines and ports has increased [7][8]. - **Coke**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented this week, with a reduction of 50 yuan/ton. The current supply - demand of coke is relatively balanced, the price of coking coal is fluctuating, and it is difficult to raise the price of coke further. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable next week. The coke output has decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain stable next week with slight fluctuations. Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the molten iron output has declined this week but is expected to rebound in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The total inventory of coke has increased, and the profitability of coke enterprises varies by region [9]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Price**: The spot price of domestic coking coal has declined, and the price of imported coking coal fluctuates. The price indices of low - sulfur prime coking coal, medium - sulfur prime coking coal, and coking coal have shown different trends [8][27][30]. - **Coke Price**: The first - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the price of coke is expected to remain stable. The price indices of coke, ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade coke, and trade price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port have different trends [9][37]. - **Coking Coal Basis**: The basis of coking coal for Mongolian coal and Shanxi coal shows different trends in different contracts [40][47]. - **Coke Basis**: The basis of coke for port spot and Shanxi origin shows different trends in different contracts [56][64]. - **Coking Coal Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads of coking coal (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends in different contracts [72]. - **Coke Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads of coke (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) show different trends in different contracts [77]. - **Coking Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased, and the output of raw coal and clean coal has also increased [12][82]. - **Coking Coal Import Volume**: The import volume of coking coal shows different trends from different countries [85]. - **Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: The customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at ports is high, and the number of vehicles shows a high - level fluctuation [8][88]. - **Coke Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises and the daily output of coke show different trends [91]. - **Steel Mill Blast Furnace Production**: Affected by environmental protection and other factors, the molten iron output of steel mills has declined, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate have also decreased [23][94]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the inventory of coal mines and ports has increased. The inventory of coke enterprises and steel mills has decreased [8][97][100][103]. - **Coke Inventory**: The total inventory of coke has increased, with the inventory of coke enterprises and ports increasing, and the inventory of steel mills decreasing [9][106].

Core Viewpoint - The article summarizes various suggestions and opinions from representatives and committee members during the 2026 National Two Sessions regarding the energy sector, covering areas such as the power grid, coal, natural gas, photovoltaics, nuclear energy, and hydrogen energy. Power Grid - The power grid plays a crucial role in resource optimization and supporting energy transition, serving as a "lifeline" for high-quality economic and social development [3] - The safety of the power grid is fundamental for building a strong energy nation, with significant improvements in resilience during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - The 15th Five-Year Plan period presents new challenges for grid safety, necessitating innovation in technology and management to enhance the grid's protective capabilities [3] Coal - The coal industry is at a critical juncture for high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan, with coal consumption expected to peak in the mid to late period [7] - The industry will focus on intelligent and green development, with large coal mines achieving full automation and a significant reduction in carbon emissions [7] - Coal's role is shifting from a primary energy source to a supportive one, emphasizing its importance in energy security and the development of coal-based new materials [8] Natural Gas - The integration of natural gas and hydrogen energy is essential for industry transformation, with recommendations for establishing safety standards and pricing mechanisms for hydrogen blending [11] - A modern biogas industry system should be developed, with support for biogas projects and a national certification platform for emissions reduction [12] - The gas-electricity pricing mechanism needs improvement to reflect the higher adjustment value of gas power in the new power system [12] Photovoltaics - High standards are necessary to address "involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with measures to enhance safety, reliability, and efficiency [14] - A green electricity consumption system should be established to promote the application of renewable energy and stabilize the domestic photovoltaic market [15] - Rural photovoltaic development requires infrastructure upgrades and financial products to ensure stable returns for farmers and investors [17] Nuclear Energy - The export of nuclear technology, particularly the "Hualong One" reactor, has gained international recognition, with plans to enhance competitiveness in global markets [20] - A three-step strategy for nuclear power development focuses on maintaining a steady approval pace for mainstream reactor types and advancing research on advanced reactors [21] - Nuclear energy should be integrated into green certificate trading systems to reflect its zero-carbon value and support energy structure optimization [23] Hydrogen Energy - A national hydrogen energy infrastructure plan is needed to facilitate large-scale development, including a comprehensive hydrogen pipeline network [25] - The coupling of electricity and hydrogen should be prioritized, with policies to support green hydrogen projects and their integration into the power market [26] - The establishment of a unified green hydrogen certification and traceability system is crucial for promoting market transactions and ensuring fair returns on investments [29]

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the need to focus on geopolitical uncertainties, tariffs, and liquidity disturbances while awaiting volatility to stabilize. Domestically, attention is directed towards the government work report and the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a continuous verification of economic recovery, particularly in social financing and prices. The A-share market is expected to experience oscillating rotations, with a balanced style, focusing on defensive, cyclical price increases, and structural opportunities in technology themes [4][31]. A-share Strategy - March is identified as a critical verification period for policies and the economy, with a focus on new insights from the Two Sessions and ongoing verification of economic recovery. Key signals from the Two Sessions include: 1) a growth target range of 4.5%-5% with an emphasis on quality and price; 2) the launch of major projects and new policy financial tools to support the year; 3) initiatives for increasing residents' income and enhancing social security to promote consumption and domestic demand; 4) optimizing existing resources and fostering new growth drivers [5][7]. - The report outlines a calendar effect for the Two Sessions, indicating a pattern of pre-meeting increases, mid-meeting adjustments, and post-meeting recoveries, with styles shifting from stability to financial, growth, and consumer sectors [5][25]. Industry Selection - Three main structural opportunities are highlighted: 1) Defensive sectors (high dividend stocks, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery); 2) Cyclical price increases (coal, steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals); 3) Technology themes (AI, commercial aerospace, future energy, quantum technology, and embodied intelligence) [5][29][43]. - The report notes that the performance of the A-share market is influenced by external geopolitical uncertainties and domestic policy support, leading to a balanced growth and value style, with opportunities remaining in small and mid-cap stocks after adjustments [42][37]. Economic Window - March marks the beginning of a verification period for economic recovery, with a focus on financial data, exports, retail sales, real estate, infrastructure, and price data. Key attention is on whether financial data from February can continue to improve and the extent of demand recovery in exports, retail sales, and real estate [9][10]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the A-share market has reached a new high in the current bull market, with a PE-TTM of 23.74 as of March 1, 2026, still having a 3% upside potential compared to the previous bull market peak of 24.47 [15][16]. Liquidity Trends - Public and wealth management products have shown significant growth at the beginning of the year, with a notable increase in new issuances and net subscriptions, indicating a strong influx of funds into the market. The report anticipates that the trend of residents moving deposits into wealth management products will continue [20][23].

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：601225 证券简称：陕西煤业 公告编号：2026-003 陕西煤业股份有限公司 2026 年 2 月主要运营数据公告 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2026 | 年 | 2025 | 年 | 同比变化（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 月 | 累计 | 2 月 | 累计 | 2 月 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 煤炭产量 | 万吨 | 1,415.00 | 2,934.00 | 1,438.61 | 2,866.77 | -1.64 | 2.35 | | 自产煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,333.00 | 2,724.00 | 1,424.11 | 2,717.50 | -6.40 | 0.24 | | 二、发电 | | | | | | | | | 总发电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 27.85 | 72.73 | 30.22 | 63.40 | -7 ...