1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the terminal market will experience significant structural differentiation. Real - estate steel demand is expected to continue its negative growth. Fiscal policy may increase investment in general infrastructure, but the growth rate of traditional high - steel - consuming infrastructure may slow down. Manufacturing steel demand is also differentiated, and the impact on steel demand in 2026 may be relatively neutral. Steel exports will remain at a high level, but the growth rate will slow down [3]. - In the steel market, the supply side is relatively certain. Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the crude steel output will decline slightly year - on - year in 2026. The short - process steelmaking ratio is expected to increase slowly, and the decline of pig iron output will be smaller than that of crude steel [3]. - In the iron ore market, the domestic iron ore supply will be released slowly in 2026, while the global iron ore market has entered a supply - release period. However, China's iron ore demand faces pressure from economic structure transformation and a decline in steel consumption intensity. The global iron ore demand lacks growth points in 2026 [3]. - In 2026, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation. The rebar price is expected to be in the range of 2,900 - 3,500 yuan, with a slightly higher price center than in 2025, and the price may be slightly higher in the first half of the year. The hot - rolled coil price is expected to be in the range of 3,100 - 3,700 yuan. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 650 - 900 yuan, with a price center similar to that in 2025 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel and Iron Ore Industry Chain Analysis - **Steel - making Process**: There are two steel - making processes in China's steel industry: long - process and short - process. Long - process steel - making has a long production process, a wide range of raw materials, high production efficiency, and stable product quality. Short - process steel - making has less pollution and lower energy consumption, but lower production efficiency [14][15]. - **Industry Chain Structure**: The upstream of the steel industry mainly includes raw materials such as iron ore and fuel. The mid - stream is mainly the production of crude steel and various steel products. The downstream is the application fields of steel, including infrastructure, construction, machinery, automotive, and home appliance industries [17][18]. - **Iron Ore Mining and Processing**: The iron ore mining and processing process includes exploration, mining, crushing, screening, grinding, beneficiation, and transportation [22]. 3.2 Introduction to Steel and Iron Ore Futures and Options Contracts - **Rebar Futures and Options Contracts**: Rebar futures are traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The trading unit is 10 tons per lot, and the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton. The contract months are from January to December. The delivery system includes physical delivery [26][29]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures Contracts**: Hot - rolled coil futures are also traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The trading unit is 10 tons per lot, and the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton. The contract months are from January to December. The delivery system includes physical delivery [36][38]. - **Iron Ore Futures and Options Contracts**: Iron ore futures are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The trading unit is 100 tons per lot, and the minimum price change is 0.5 yuan/ton. The contract months are from January to December. The delivery system includes physical delivery [49][51]. 3.3 Long - term Trends and 2025 Market Summary - **Spot Market**: Since 2011, the prices of steel and iron ore in the spot market have generally gone through four stages: decline (2011 - 2015), rise (2016 - 2018), sharp fluctuation (2019 - 2022), and decline again (2023 - present). In 2025, the steel spot price continued to decline, and the iron ore spot price fluctuated within a range [66][73]. - **Futures Market**: The long - term trends of rebar and iron ore futures are similar to those of the spot market. In 2025, the rebar futures price continued to decline, and the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a range [81][86]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: In 2025, the trading volume and open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures were generally average, with a significant increase in July [92]. 3.4 Terminal Market Demand Analysis - **Real - estate Steel Demand**: Since 2016, real - estate policies have gone through four stages: strict regulation, stable transformation, risk resolution, and full - force market stabilization. In 2025, the decline in real - estate sales narrowed, but investment continued to decline, and steel demand for real - estate is expected to be negative in 2026 [101][102][111]. - **Infrastructure Steel Demand**: Since 2021, the growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) has continued to decline. In 2025, it decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The growth of infrastructure investment depends on the issuance of special bonds [112]. - **Manufacturing Steel Demand**: Since 2021, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry has declined. In 2025, the investment growth rate slowed down, but it was still better than that of real - estate and infrastructure. The steel demand in the automotive, construction machinery, and home appliance industries showed different trends [115]. - **Steel Exports**: In 2025, China's steel exports maintained strong resilience. The export volume reached a record high, but the growth rate slowed down in the later stage. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain at a high level [127][129]. 3.5 Steel Market Supply Analysis - **Crude Steel Supply**: Since 2021, China's crude steel output has declined. In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. In 2026, it is expected to continue to be below 1 billion tons, with a slight year - on - year decline [134][137]. - **Pig Iron Supply**: In recent years, the growth rate of pig iron output has been lower than that of crude steel, mainly due to the development of short - process steel - making. In 2026, pig iron output is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be smaller than that of crude steel [138][144]. 3.6 Iron Ore Market Supply Analysis - **New Iron Ore Production Capacity**: In the next five years, the four major iron ore mines are expected to add a total of 200 million tons of new production capacity. In 2025, Vale is expected to add 40 million tons of new production capacity, and FMG is expected to add 22 million tons [147][150]. - **Shipping Targets of the Four Major Mines**: The shipping/target output of the four major mines has generally been increasing in recent years. In 2026, the guidance targets of the mines are expected to move up further [151]. - **China's Iron Ore Imports**: China's iron ore import dependence remains above 80%. In 2025, the import volume was 1.259 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In 2026, the import volume is expected to remain at a high level, but with low growth [160][162]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Supply**: In 2025, China's domestic iron ore output decreased to less than 1 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In 2026, the domestic iron ore supply is expected to be released slowly [166]. 3.7 Steel and Iron Ore Market Inventory Analysis - **Steel Market Inventory**: In 2025, the inventory of rebar was relatively low, and it started to accumulate in the National Day period. The inventory of hot - rolled coil was relatively high, and it showed a significant accumulation trend after the National Day [168][170]. - **Iron Ore Market Inventory**: In 2025, the steel - mill inventory of imported iron ore was continuously low. The port iron ore inventory decreased in the first half of the year and increased in the second half, but it was still lower than that in 2024. High port inventory will suppress the market trend in 2026, especially in the first half [175]. 3.8 Forecast of Steel and Iron Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Steel Supply - Demand Balance**: In the future, the output of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products will have low growth or negative growth. In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to improve slightly, and exports will remain at a high level but with a low growth rate [177][180]. - **Iron Ore Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025, the global iron ore market was in oversupply, and the price was in a downward trend. In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to increase, and demand lacks growth points [181]. 3.9 Futures Hedging Cases of Steel and Iron Ore Enterprises - **Rebar Futures Hedging**: A medium - sized construction company successfully hedged the price increase risk of rebar procurement through futures hedging in 2025, achieving the goal of locking in procurement costs [187][190]. - **Iron Ore Futures Hedging**: A steel - processing enterprise successfully hedged the price increase risk of iron ore procurement through futures hedging in 2025, achieving the goal of locking in raw material costs [191]. 3.10 Technical Analysis and Outlook of Futures Prices - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, rebar futures perform well in January and December, and are likely to decline in August. Hot - rolled coil futures perform well in January, June, and December, and are likely to decline in August and September. Iron ore futures perform well in January, November, and December, and are likely to decline in August [192][193][197]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the monthly chart of the main rebar contract, the rebar is in a downward channel. The main hot - rolled coil contract is also in a downward trend. The main iron ore contract fluctuates in a wide range [199][201][206]. 3.11 Option Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - For steel products in 2026, considering the seasonal characteristics, it is recommended to buy call options at low prices before the peak season, and buy put options at high crude - steel output and low - demand seasons. When the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the double - buying strategy is recommended [207]. - For iron ore, when the hot - metal output is above 2.4 million tons, it is advisable to buy put options. In a volatile market, the double - buying strategy can be considered [211]. 3.12 Industry Enterprise Research and 2026 Outlook - Different industry experts have different views on the 2026 steel and iron ore market. Some believe that the steel price will fluctuate around the average cost line, and the iron ore supply will be relatively loose; others believe that the steel price center may stop moving down, but the steel - mill profit may shrink [212]. 3.13 Summary of the Full Text and 2026 Operation Suggestions - **Summary**: In 2026, the macro - economy is expected to stabilize. The domestic demand for steel lacks long - term growth points, and the export growth rate will slow down. The crude steel output will decline slightly. The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the iron ore price will also fluctuate in a wide range [215][216]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, it is recommended to conduct band trading in 2026. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the hot - rolled coil - to - rebar spread. For options, buy call options at low prices before the peak season and buy put options at high - output and low - demand seasons. For iron ore, suppliers can consider selling for hedging, and steel mills can maintain a low - inventory strategy. Pay attention to the opportunity of selling the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio [217].

Market Overview - The cyclical market is perceived to be strong, but concerns about high valuations exist; however, from a 5-year perspective, the cyclical rally may just be beginning[3] - From 2021 to 2025, the domestic real estate cycle was declining, and the PPI continued to bottom out, leading to a bear market in cyclical industries[6] - The overall cumulative increase of the Wind All A index from September 2021 to September 2025 was 11%, while construction materials fell by 36%, steel by 35%, and basic chemicals by 21%[6] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of cyclical industries is not expensive, with current valuations around the 50% percentile of the past 20 years; for example, steel is at 1.3x PB (60% percentile) and basic chemicals at 2.6x PB (56% percentile)[8] - In a bull market environment at 4100 points on the Shanghai Composite, it is challenging to find absolutely cheap quality stocks[8] Macro Fundamentals - The performance recovery of cyclical industries is expected as PPI year-on-year growth is anticipated to turn positive, which typically leads to profit growth and ROE recovery[9] - As of January 2026, PPI was still in a negative growth range at -1.4%, with cyclical sector ROE around 8% and profit growth near 0%[9] Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors have just begun to increase their positions in cyclical sectors, with current allocations still low; for instance, as of Q4 2025, the allocation to non-ferrous metals was 8%[12] - The allocation to basic chemicals was 3%, and to construction materials was only 0.7%[12] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side constraints have led to a long-cycle dividend, with capital expenditures in cyclical industries declining over the past five years, resulting in tight supply conditions[14] - For example, capital expenditure to depreciation ratios for coal remained at 1-1.5, while for steel it dropped from 1.2 to 0.8[18] Historical Context - Historical comparisons indicate that the current cyclical rally has not yet ended; previous cyclical rallies lasted around 400-500 trading days, while the current rally has only lasted 164 trading days since July 2025[24] - The last cyclical downturn saw significant increases in commodity prices, with the CRB index showing a maximum increase of over 200% during previous cycles[19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel, the market is in a state of oscillation, and inventory has not started to decline. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and conduct positive arbitrage after the basis spread falls [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, although the price has rebounded due to supply disturbances and cost support, the fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to gradually take profits on previous long positions and for industrial customers to hedge at high prices [3][7]. - For coking coal and coke, the geopolitical situation continues to ferment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and establish positive arbitrage positions on the 05 contract during rebounds [7]. - For iron ore, the geopolitical conflict has intensified, and it is recommended for medium - and long - term investors to enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On March 5th, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3104.00 yuan/ton, 3230.00 yuan/ton, 735.50 yuan/ton, 1745.00 yuan/ton, and 1200.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 1.00 yuan, - 4.00 yuan, 5.00 yuan, - 8.00 yuan, and - 6.00 yuan, and percentage changes of 0.03%, - 0.12%, 0.68%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50% [1]. - For near - month contracts (main contracts), the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3075.00 yuan/ton, 3209.00 yuan/ton, 759.00 yuan/ton, 1676.50 yuan/ton, and 1105.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.00 yuan, - 6.00 yuan, 9.50 yuan, - 1.00 yuan, and - 4.00 yuan, and percentage changes of 0.10%, - 0.19%, 1.27%, - 0.06%, and - 0.36% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 on March 5th were - 29.00 yuan/ton, - 21.00 yuan/ton, 23.50 yuan/ton, - 68.50 yuan/ton, and - 94.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spreads/price ratios/profits on March 5th: the coil - to - rebar spread was 134.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.05, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.52, the rebar on - disk profit was - 73.35 yuan/ton, and the coking on - disk profit was 206.19 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On March 5th, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3170.00 yuan/ton, 3110.00 yuan/ton, 3390.00 yuan/ton, 2920.00 yuan/ton, and 101.35 respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 10.00 yuan, and 1.15 respectively [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - product spread, and Rizhao Port: PB on March 5th were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3230.00 yuan/ton, 3220.00 yuan/ton, 250.00 yuan/ton, and 767.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, - 10.00 yuan, and 17.00 yuan respectively [1]. - The spot prices of Gaolü Port: Super Special Powder, Anruoguo: Tiliuquan, Ganqimao Coal Refined Coking Coal, Qingdao Port: Quasi - first - grade Coke (ex - warehouse), and Qingdao Port: PB on March 5th were 647.00 yuan/ton, 704.00 yuan/ton, 1180.00 yuan/ton, - 1480.00 yuan/ton, and 769.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 7.00 yuan, 7.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, 0.00 yuan, and 19.00 yuan respectively [1]. - The basis spreads of HC main contract, RB main contract, main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract on March 5th were 41.00 yuan/ton, 95.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, - 50.10 yuan/ton, and 104.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The steel inventory is in the seasonal accumulation cycle, with only medium - thick plates showing a slight decline in inventory. The spot rigid demand starts slowly, and the price driving force is unclear. The steel mill has profit and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption rhythm may be slow. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and conduct positive arbitrage after the basis spread falls [2]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: After the Spring Festival, the price has rebounded due to supply disturbances and cost support. However, the fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and strong resistance to price increases. It is recommended to gradually take profits on previous long positions and for industrial customers to hedge at high prices [3][7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The geopolitical situation continues to ferment. The first round of coke price cuts has started, and the coking coal spot price continues to weaken. The supply recovers faster than the demand. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and establish positive arbitrage positions on the 05 contract during rebounds [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and the risk assets' volatility has increased. There is a certain restocking expectation for iron ore, but the long - term pressure is obvious. It is recommended for medium - and long - term investors to enter short positions at resistance levels [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral, with prices expected to oscillate [1][2] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish, with short - term downward pressure on prices [3][4] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Thermal coal: No specific strategy provided, prices in a narrow - range fluctuation [8][9] 2. Core Views - The steel market has poor sentiment, with building materials in a supply - demand weak situation and plate demand expected to improve; the iron ore market has strong supply and weak demand, and high inventory needs to be resolved by price decline; the coking coal supply is loose, and coke follows the weakening of finished products; the thermal coal price shows a narrow - range fluctuation, supported by imported coal [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures prices oscillated upward, while the spot trading was generally weak. The spot prices remained stable, and most regions did not follow the futures price increase. The trading volume decreased in the afternoon as the futures prices declined [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Near the Two - Sessions, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials have a supply - demand weak situation, with inventory rising seasonally. Plate production and sales have improved, and the demand is expected to further increase. High intermediate inventory suppresses price performance [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures prices oscillated upward, and the spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore in Tangshan ports were strong. The trading volume decreased by 31.90% compared with the previous day, and the daily average hot - metal output decreased by 5.69 tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of iron ore remains high at high prices. The daily average hot - metal output has significantly declined, and the excessive supply and inventory suppress the price. The key to resolving high inventory is to reduce prices and suppress marginal supply [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is cautiously bearish, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The coking coal production in the origin has basically returned to normal, and the trading atmosphere is average. The coke in some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin has started the first - round price cut. The Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a high level [6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coking coal supply is loose, with slight inventory accumulation, and the price oscillates. The coke follows the weakening of finished products, and the supply - demand weak situation remains unchanged [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, some coal mines' prices have increased, while some have decreased. At the ports, traders are more willing to sell, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and the actual trading volume is limited. Imported coal prices are high [8] - **Demand - Logic**: The post - holiday demand has recovered, and the domestic coal price has continued to rise slightly due to the import supply problem. The current price is in a narrow - range fluctuation [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation and challenges facing China's coal industry, emphasizing the need for strategic shifts towards cleaner energy and resource security amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices [2][5][11]. Group 1: Energy Consumption and Coal's Role - In 2025, China's total energy consumption is projected to reach 6.17 billion tons of standard coal, with a 3.5% increase from the previous year. Coal will account for 51.4% of this total, highlighting its role as a critical energy "ballast" [2]. - However, the proportion of coal consumption is expected to decrease by 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year, indicating a gradual shift towards alternative energy sources [2]. - By around 2028, coal consumption is anticipated to plateau, with annual consumption expected to fluctuate between 4.9 billion and 5.1 billion tons, necessitating a transition from expansion to value creation in the industry [5][6]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Coal Production - The relocation of coal production capacity to western regions like Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi has become a significant structural change, enhancing resource endowment and reducing production costs [4]. - By 2024, Xinjiang's raw coal output is expected to exceed 400 million tons, benefiting from improved safety and supply resilience due to better transportation channels [4]. Group 3: Energy Security and Geopolitical Context - The high dependence on imported oil, particularly from the Middle East, poses risks to energy security, making the development of domestic coal resources crucial for strategic stability [5]. - The article emphasizes that coal's role as a "ballast" is becoming increasingly valuable in the context of international geopolitical tensions [5]. Group 4: Industry Transformation Strategies - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, the coal industry is urged to transition from being a fuel source to a raw material for modern coal chemical processes, aiming to produce high-value products like olefins and special fuels [6]. - The integration of coal with renewable energy and advanced chemicals is essential for fostering new production capabilities, while digitalization and smart mining technologies are expected to enhance efficiency and safety [6][9]. Group 5: Challenges in Smart Mining and Clean Utilization - Significant progress has been made in smart mining, with over 50% of coal mines achieving intelligent operations, but challenges remain, including data interoperability and a shortage of skilled personnel [8][9]. - The article highlights the importance of clean coal utilization, advocating for the development of technologies like CCUS and modern coal chemical industries to reduce emissions and enhance the value of coal [9]. Group 6: Critical Mineral Resources and Supply Security - The article addresses the challenges posed by fluctuating prices of key minerals like copper, aluminum, and silver, which are vital for the renewable energy sector [11]. - Strategies for securing industrial metal supplies include enhancing domestic exploration, promoting recycling, and diversifying international partnerships to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions [12][13].

Financial Engineering - As of February 28, 2026, there are 13,817 existing funds in the market, an increase of 95 funds compared to the previous month. The total net asset value of funds is 37.23 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 9.7 billion yuan, indicating a slight growth in the fund market size [2] - In February 2026, the returns of value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.00%, 1.40%, and 0.72% respectively, with balanced funds outperforming growth funds, showing a certain degree of performance divergence among different styles of funds [2] ETF Market Tracking - As of February 28, 2026, there are 1,446 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 16 from the previous period. The total asset management scale is 5.39 trillion yuan, a decrease of 73.79 billion yuan, while the total shares amount to 33.4 trillion, an increase of 60.17 billion shares [3] - In February, the median return of stock ETFs was 0.70%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return of -3.30%. Bond ETFs had a median return of 0.21%, outperforming commodity ETFs [3] - Cross-border ETFs exhibited the highest internal deviation in February, while stock and commodity ETFs had internal deviations of 3.18% and 0.89% respectively. Bond ETFs had the lowest internal deviation at 0.11% [3] ETF Strategy Tracking - The industry ETF rotation strategy focused on steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals in February 2026, achieving a cumulative return of 6.17%, significantly outperforming the cumulative return of the CSI 300 index at 0.09%, resulting in an excess return of 6.08%. Year-to-date, the strategy's cumulative return is 71.82%, compared to the CSI 300's 21.67%, yielding an excess return of 50.15% [4] - The PB-ROE framework's industry ETF rotation strategy focused on non-ferrous metals, transportation, and utilities in February 2026, with a cumulative return of 4.25%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index's 0.09% return, leading to an excess return of 4.16%. Year-to-date, this strategy's cumulative return is 34.51%, compared to the CSI 300's 21.67%, resulting in an excess return of 12.84% [4] Investment Recommendations - For March 2026, there is a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal industries, with corresponding ETFs recommended for these sectors. Additionally, based on the PB-ROE situation and supplementary indicators, the ETF rotation strategy suggests focusing on the communication, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and coal industries, with corresponding ETFs recommended for these sectors as well [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the provided report, but it presents the latest data and changes in the thermal coal market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Coal Prices - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5500 is 749.0, with a daily change of -1.0, weekly change of 6.0, monthly change of 50.0, and annual change of 59.0 [1] - The latest price of Qinhuangdao 5000 is 671.0, with a daily change of -2.0, weekly change of 5.0, monthly change of 57.0, and annual change of 66.0 [1] - The latest price of Guangzhou Port 5500 is 815.0, with a daily change of 0.0, weekly change of 0.0, monthly change of 20.0, and annual change of 10.0 [1] - The latest price of Ordos 5500 is 530.0, with a daily change of 0.0, weekly change of 20.0, monthly change of 40.0, and annual change of 55.0 [1] - The latest price of Datong 5500 is 585.0, with a daily change of 0.0, weekly change of 20.0, monthly change of 40.0, and annual change of 60.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6000 is 675.0, with a daily change of 0.0, weekly change of 5.0, monthly change of 5.0, and annual change of 68.0 [1] - The latest price of Yulin 6200 is 730.0, with a daily change of -15.0, weekly change of -15.0, monthly change of -15.0, and annual change of 95.0 [1] Terminal Data of 25 Provinces - The latest available days for 25 - province terminals is 20.8, with a daily change of -0.9, weekly change of 0.8, monthly change of -0.2, and annual change of 3.2 [1] - The latest coal supply for 25 - province terminals is 439.7, with a daily change of 12.1, weekly change of -168.8, monthly change of -200.3, and annual change of -183.1 [1] - The latest daily consumption of 25 - province terminals is 557.7, with a daily change of 20.1, weekly change of -85.5, monthly change of -88.3, and annual change of -96.7 [1] - The latest inventory of 25 - province terminals is 11574.6, with a daily change of -65.8, weekly change of -1245.9, monthly change of -1929.9, and annual change of 57.1 [1] Northern Port Data - The latest northern port inventory is 2335.0, with a daily change of -6.0, weekly change of 87.0, monthly change of 19.0, and annual change of -505.0 [1] - The latest number of northern anchored ships is 95.0, with a daily change of -3.0, weekly change of -9.0, monthly change of 4.0, and annual change of 51.0 [1] - The latest northern port inbound volume is 172.6, with a daily change of 19.2, weekly change of 18.8, monthly change of 29.9, and annual change of 21.6 [1] - The latest northern port throughput is 166.7, with a daily change of 30.0, weekly change of 5.0, monthly change of 4.8, and annual change of 9.8 [1] Shipping Index - The latest CBCFI shipping index is 666.2, with a daily change of 6.4, weekly change of 64.9, monthly change of 96.5, and annual change of 66.1 [1] Shipping Routes - The latest shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai (4 - 5DWT) is 24.5, with a daily change of 0.2, weekly change of 2.9, monthly change of 3.7, and annual change of 3.1 [1] - The latest shipping price from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou (5 - 6DWT) is 42.8, with a daily change of -0.2, weekly change of 3.6, monthly change of 8.8, and annual change of 5.8 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Report's Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices showed little fluctuation, with rebar slightly stronger and hot-rolled coil weaker, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar converged. The spread between May and October contracts of rebar strengthened, while that of hot-rolled coil remained stable. Steel mill's hot metal production decreased due to environmental protection factors, inventory continued to decline seasonally, and apparent demand rebounded. Attention should be paid to the height of the rebound in apparent demand. The government work report at the Two Sessions basically met expectations, with little fluctuation in domestic demand expectations. The conflict between the US and Iran affected steel export routes, leading to a weak short - term export expectation. The support levels of rebar and hot-rolled coil are around 3020 yuan/ton and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the cumulative shipment volume since the beginning of the year increased by nearly 30 million tons. The arrival volume decreased. The hot metal production decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis, and the inventory pressure at ports was prominent. The supply pressure will still suppress ore prices, and the concerns about finished product exports may cause disturbances. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 730 - 770 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a volatile trend. The mainstream steel mills initiated the first - round price cut on March 4, which is expected to take effect on March 6, and port prices were weakly stable. Coking profit recovered to near the break - even point after the price increase. During the Two Sessions, steel mill production limits led to a decrease in hot metal production, weakening the restocking demand. The overall inventory increased slightly, and the coke supply and demand were basically balanced in the short term. Coking coal futures also showed a volatile trend. The spot auction price in Shanxi was weakly running, and the Mongolian coal price fluctuated with the futures. After the Spring Festival, coal mines gradually resumed production, and the daily coal output increased. Steel mills limited production during the Two Sessions, and the mainstream steel mills cut the coke price. The overall inventory decreased seasonally, but the upstream inventory increase was bearish. It is recommended to view the market with a volatile perspective and operate cautiously, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800 for coke and 1050 - 1200 for coking coal [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures contract fluctuated at a high level. After the Spring Festival, ferrosilicon supply increased slightly, and the absolute value was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand for ferrosilicon increased marginally after the festival. The ferromanganese futures contract continued to rise. The supply of ferromanganese increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value was also at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The hot metal production decreased significantly due to production limits during the Two Sessions, and the finished product inventory was low. The terminal demand for exports was weakened by the US - Iran conflict. The overall demand will continue to improve marginally after the festival. It is expected that the price fluctuations of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese will intensify. For ferrosilicon, the price may face pressure when rebounding to the FOB export cost. For ferromanganese, short - term long positions or 5 - 9 positive spreads can be tried, and attention should be paid to the immediate cost pressure level in Guizhou [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions had different changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China remained unchanged, while hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the plate billet price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different products showed different changes, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 44 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The production of five major steel products increased by 0.5 to 797.2, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production increased by 8.2 to 173.3, an increase of 5.0%, with the electric furnace production increasing significantly by 9.1 to 11.7, an increase of 349.6%. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.5 to 301.1, a decrease of 2.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 105.9 to 1952.0, an increase of 5.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 75.1 to 875.7, an increase of 9.4%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 19.5 to 471.7, an increase of 4.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.2 to 5.3, an increase of 3.8%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 126.7 to 691.4, an increase of 22.4%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 64.7 to 98.2, an increase of 192.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 13.2 to 281.6, an increase of 4.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties increased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increasing by 5.5 to 856.6, an increase of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed, for example, the 05 - contract basis of Carajás fines decreased by 1.5 to 97.6, a decrease of 1.6% [4]. Production and Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 5.5 to 2146.9, a decrease of 0.3%. The global shipment volume increased by 19.8 to 3340.7, an increase of 0.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 to 11964.7, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.8 to 233.3, an increase of 1.2%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 162.41 to 6072.2, a decrease of 2.6% [4]. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel mills decreased by 1618.8 to 9085.1, a decrease of 15.1%. The 45 - port inventory increased by 145.6 to 17091.96, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coke varieties had different changes. For example, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coke 05 contract increased by 5 to 1677, an increase of 0.3% [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of different coking coal varieties also had different changes. For example, the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal 05 contract increased by 9 to 1106, an increase of 0.8% [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production was 883. The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4 to 63.9, a decrease of 0.5%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.0, a decrease of 0.2%. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines' raw coal decreased by 144.1 to 696.4, a decrease of 17.1%, and the clean coal production decreased by 74.4 to 349.6, a decrease of 17.5% [7]. Demand - The 247 - steel - mill hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4%. The demand for coke was affected by the decrease in hot metal production [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.6 to 984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.5 to 110.3, an increase of 2.3%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.9 to 671.3, a decrease of 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines' clean coal decreased by 3.1 to 121.0, a decrease of 2.5%, and the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 48.9 to 949.5, a decrease of 4.9% [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot and Futures - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5828.0, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 28 to 6092.0 [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 9.4 to 6063.2, and the production profit decreased by 9.3 to - 213.2. The production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased by 26.6 to 6312.4 [8]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.2 to 9.7, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly ferromanganese production decreased by 0.1 to 19.6, a decrease of 0.8% [8]. Demand - The weekly ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged at 1.8, with an increase of 1.7%. The weekly ferromanganese demand increased by 0.1 to 11.1, an increase of 0.9%. The 247 - steel - mill daily average hot metal production decreased by 5.7 to 227.6, a decrease of 2.4% [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.4 to 6.6, a decrease of 5.9%. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 1.1 to 38.7, a decrease of 2.8% [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The market sentiment of thermal coal is weakening, and the short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range. The downstream daily consumption has recovered slowly after the festival, the port market trading atmosphere has been long - term sluggish, some traders are actively reporting goods to realize rising profits, and the transaction price is weakening. The upstream resumption of production is accelerating, the coal mine price is falling, the cost - side support for the price is weakening, and the port inventory is accumulating, which causes concerns about the loose supply in the off - season [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Coal Prices**: The prices of coal in different regions and with different calorific values are provided. For example, the price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 613 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 745 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 8 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 64 yuan/ton. The overseas prices of Indonesian FOB Q3800 and Australian FOB Q5500 are 60.5 dollars/ton and 86.6 dollars/ton respectively [1]. - **February Long - term Agreement Prices**: The long - term agreement prices of different regions for Q5500 coal are given. For example, the port Q5500 long - term agreement price is 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 11 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Market Sentiment and Supply - Demand Situation**: On March 5, the thermal coal market sentiment weakened. The downstream daily consumption recovered slowly after the festival, the port market trading atmosphere was long - term sluggish, and the transaction price was weakening. The upstream resumption of production accelerated, the coal mine price fell, the cost - side support for the price weakened, and the port inventory accumulated, which caused concerns about the loose supply in the off - season [2]. - **Indonesian Coal Policy**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 247.9 million tons, slightly lower than the actual supply in 2025. The preliminary coal production target for 2026 is 733 million tons, which will be adjusted according to the production reduction situation [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at the northern port) is - 1 [2].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Aluminum and Coal sectors - **Geopolitical Impact**: Middle East conflicts affecting aluminum supply, with Qatar and Bahrain experiencing significant production disruptions, potentially impacting global supply by up to 6 million tons, approximately 9% of global output [1][3][4] Key Insights on Aluminum Sector - **Price Surge**: LME aluminum prices have surged past $3,300 per ton due to supply disruptions, with domestic prices rising from approximately 23,500 CNY/ton to 24,500 CNY/ton [1][3] - **Supply Constraints**: The Middle East has a significant aluminum production capacity of 6.7-7 million tons, with a 900,000-ton alumina deficit heavily reliant on imports. If conflicts escalate, the supply impact could reach 5-6 million tons [4][6] - **Cost Factors**: Natural gas constitutes about 40% of aluminum production costs. A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a spike in gas prices, further elevating aluminum prices [5] - **Valuation Recovery**: Aluminum sector valuations are expected to recover, with PE ratios dropping to around 9x at a price of 24,500 CNY/ton, and dividend yields reaching 6%-9% [1][7] - **Investment Recommendations**: Favorable companies include Yunnan Aluminum, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao, with a focus on those with higher dividend yields [1][8] Key Insights on Coal Sector - **Market Adjustments**: The coal sector has seen a recent pullback due to rumors of Indonesia's production targets for 2026 being set at 733 million tons, which is perceived as less stringent than expected [1][9] - **Underlying Support**: Domestic coal production is expected to decline, while demand from AI-related electricity usage is surging, providing a fundamental support for coal prices [1][11] - **Price Outlook**: Coal prices are anticipated to rise towards 900 CNY/ton before the summer peak season, with a focus on companies like Yancoal and China Coal Energy [1][11][16] - **Investment Strategy**: The coal sector is viewed as a multi-factor resonance opportunity, with a focus on both traditional coal and coal-chemical companies [14][16] Additional Considerations - **Long-term Trends**: The coal industry is seen as entering a bottom reversal phase, marking a potential long-term investment opportunity [17] - **Market Sentiment**: The geopolitical situation and energy demands are reshaping the valuation landscape for both aluminum and coal sectors, with a shift in perception regarding the strategic importance of coal [14][17] - **Monitoring Signals**: Investors are advised to track production and sales behaviors of Indonesian coal companies closely, as these will provide insights into supply dynamics and price movements [12][13] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, focusing on the aluminum and coal industries amidst current geopolitical and market conditions.