Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and market dynamics of polysilicon, highlighting a significant price increase due to operational losses and inventory clearance efforts by polysilicon manufacturers [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 34,000 to 38,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 37,100 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.92% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 34,000 to 37,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 35,600 CNY per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 6.27% [1]. - The price of silicon materials continues to rise, with quotes now ranging from 45,000 to 50,000 CNY per ton, marking a substantial increase of 25%-35% in polysilicon prices [1]. Market Dynamics - Despite the price increase, new order volumes remain limited as wafer manufacturers adopt a wait-and-see approach due to unstable downstream market prices [1]. - There is a notable contrast between the strong willingness to expedite previously signed orders and the previous trend of frequent order cancellations, indicating a stabilization in the polysilicon market [1]. Future Expectations - Currently, there are nine domestic polysilicon manufacturers, and the cost structure varies due to geographical and resource differences, leading to price differentiation [2]. - In a limited downstream demand environment, products with lower prices and similar quality will be prioritized for transactions, putting higher-cost manufacturers at a disadvantage [2]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative serves as a test of comprehensive cost strength among companies, with increasing pressure for passive adjustments in energy conservation and green low-carbon practices [2]. - The polysilicon market is expected to remain cautious in the short term, with prices potentially experiencing slight increases influenced by market expectations until a substantial improvement in supply-demand relationships occurs [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with polysilicon futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a peak of 39,790.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a price increase of approximately 5.64% [1] - Current trading logic for polysilicon is influenced by policy adjustments and the fermentation of multiple news factors, leading to expectations of reduced production and strong short-term price support [1] - The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a weak bottoming trend in the short term, but the long-term outlook is anticipated to improve due to industry adjustments and reduced low-price competition [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to potential price controls by relevant authorities, although this has not been confirmed [2] - The price of N-type re-investment materials increased by 3,000 yuan/ton to 39,000 yuan/ton, reinforcing market expectations for a "minimum price" [2] - The current increase in warehouse receipts for polysilicon futures is limited, suggesting that the futures market may continue to rise in line with the spot market, with a resistance level projected around 40,000 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short - term neutral, upstream is recommended to sell hedging at high prices [3] - Polysilicon: Long - term suitable for low - level layout of long positions, short - term neutral [6][8] 2. Report's Core View - The influence of policies and emotions on the new energy and non - ferrous metals industry continues to ferment, with the polysilicon futures hitting the daily limit [1] - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are short - term improved slightly, but the overall situation is still weak, and its futures price increase is affected by polysilicon [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to rise significantly due to policy disturbances, and mid - to long - term investment opportunities exist [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2509 opened at 8060 yuan/ton and closed at 8215 yuan/ton, up 2.82% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract was 387122 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 51077 lots, down 272 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton [2] - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic silicone DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. It is estimated that the silicone production in July will increase by 1.53% month - on - month [2] Strategy - The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the industry inventory is high, and there is hedging pressure after the rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If there is no policy promotion, upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On July 8, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 36505 yuan/ton and closing at 38385 yuan/ton, up 7.00% from the previous day. The position was 110547 lots, and the trading volume was 634366 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, except for the increase in N - type materials. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The weekly polysilicon production was 24000.00 tons, up 1.69% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW, down 11.46% week - on - week [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5] Strategy - Recently, affected by policies and capital emotions, the prices of futures and spot have risen sharply. The market expects the polysilicon price to be above 39 - 40 yuan/kg. In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low levels [6]

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures continues to rise, driven by policy guidance and expectations of effective capacity clearing and structural adjustments in the industry, despite a lack of substantial support from actual transactions in the spot market [1][2][6] Price Trends - The main polysilicon futures contract saw an increase of over 5%, settling at a 3.40% rise, with mainstream enterprise prices climbing to 40 yuan/kg and above [1] - Recent adjustments in polysilicon prices include a rise of 3000 yuan/ton for N-type re-investment material to 39,000 yuan/ton, and other N-type materials also saw significant price increases [1][6] Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market has not changed significantly, with a balance in monthly supply and demand, and ongoing destocking [2] - The market is experiencing a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, where the actual performance in the spot market does not align with optimistic forecasts [4] Industry Responses - Major polysilicon companies are recalculating their full costs and reporting to management, with potential penalties for selling below cost [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is prompting the photovoltaic sector to respond actively, leading to noticeable price increases in polysilicon [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may maintain a wide fluctuation range, with no official guidelines on cost pricing measures yet [3] - The overall demand for polysilicon is under pressure due to declining profits in silicon wafer companies and high inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to remain weak in the short term but may see improvements in the long term due to policy support and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and related products, provides short - and medium - term trend judgments and investment strategies based on factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and macro - environment. It recommends short - selling strategies for some metals like tin and aluminum, and suggests different trading directions according to the specific situation of each variety [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment and macro - factors**: After the "Big Beautiful" bill was signed, market attention shifted to tariffs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in late July is considered low, and the US dollar index rebounded. The US labor market is generally stable [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: It is in the consumption off - season. SMM social inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 142,900 tons, and the copper product start - up rates declined. Except for stable power grid demand, the demand for home appliances and motors decreased significantly. The processing fee has bottomed out but improved little. The copper output in June decreased slightly, and the refined copper output is expected to increase in July [1]. - **Overseas news**: Chile's copper output in May reached the highest this year, with a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The Cobre Panama mine has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate after easing relations with the government [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai copper price was blocked at 81,000 yuan. In the medium - and long - term, it is recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels. In the short - term, the Shanghai copper main contract will first fill the gap at 78,900 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina situation**: The transaction of Guinea bauxite is deadlocked, and the price is stable at $75 per ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 400,000 tons to 9.355 million tons, and the total industry inventory increased slightly. The futures - spot price of alumina increased, and the futures month - spread widened [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at 4.39 - 4.4 million tons, with no expected capacity changes in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors such as aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil all face challenges in demand [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee in South China remained at a very low level [1]. - **Trend**: There is inventory accumulation, weak downstream start - up, and the spot price turned to a discount. The high position of the Shanghai aluminum index indicates large market differences. Attention should be paid to whether long - positions will reduce their positions [1]. Zinc - **Market trend**: The zinc price rebounded but did not break through the previous high, showing a weak trend. The import window remained closed [1]. - **Supply**: LME inventory continued to decline, mainly due to imports to China. The TC continued to rise, and new smelting capacities contributed to the increase. Some smelters increased or resumed production, while others reduced or suspended production. The social inventory increased, indicating a possible inventory inflection point [1]. - **Consumption**: It is in the off - season. The "Big and Beautiful" bill and US economic data affected the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the consumption negative feedback dragged down the zinc price [1]. - **Trend**: With increasing supply and weak demand, the strategy of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The London lead price was driven up by external funds, which also pulled up the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead price stabilized above 17,000 yuan [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The supply of lead concentrates remains tight. The TC of domestic and imported ores decreased. The production of primary lead increased overall, and some refineries actively shipped. The refined - scrap lead price difference remained low. The total supply of lead ingots increased year - on - year, and the proportion of primary lead production increased [1]. - **Consumption**: LME lead inventory decreased, and overseas consumption was weak. The domestic consumption is in the transition period between off - season and peak season. The start - up rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased, but the downstream was afraid of high prices, and the social inventory increased [1]. - **Trend**: Consumption is advanced, and the marginal increase in demand is affected by US tariffs. The difference between peak and off - seasons is gradually blurred. Long - positions can be held with 17,000 yuan as the support, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17,800 yuan [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market was active. The Shanghai stainless steel performance was slightly weaker [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The "anti - involution" theme has fermented, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the procurement intention is low [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of different nickel products varies. The change in the Indonesian nickel ore quota period affected the market sentiment. The upstream price support weakened. The nickel iron inventory increased, the pure nickel inventory decreased, and the stainless steel inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]. - **Trend**: The Shanghai nickel is still in a short - selling trend, and short - positions should be held [1]. Tin - **Market trend**: The domestic and overseas tin prices were blocked at 270,000 yuan and $34,000 respectively, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The previous rise of the tin price was mainly driven by funds [1]. - **Supply**: The geopolitical risk between the DRC and Rwanda decreased. The domestic concentrate processing fee remained low, and the resumption of supply from mines is expected to be delayed until August. The output in July may increase slightly or remain flat. The Malaysian smelter resumed production, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Consumption**: After entering the delivery month, the domestic spot price increase was limited. The social inventory increased. The market is concerned about the impact of photovoltaic policies and UK tariffs on tin demand [1]. - **Trend**: The short - selling strategy remains unchanged. Hold the short - positions at the previous high of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan, and the tin price may fall back to 262,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated at a low level, trying to break through upwards, and the market divergence decreased [1]. - **Spot market**: The Shanghai electrolytic carbon spot price stabilized and increased by 2%. The price increase was supported by the expected improvement in demand in July and some rigid procurement orders. The market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [1]. - **Macro and demand**: There is an expected increase in production in July, but the actual recovery needs to be observed. The market demand is divided, with a slight decline in power battery orders and good performance in energy storage demand [1]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory continued to rise. The smelter inventory decreased slightly, the downstream inventory decreased slightly, and the trader inventory increased. The price of Australian ore rebounded, and the mid - stream production decreased slightly [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price rebounded. With high inventory and rising ore prices, there is still room for rebound under the influence of the "anti - involution" theme [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The futures price fluctuated between 7,700 - 8,200 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased by 450 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply**: The start - up in Xinjiang decreased significantly, while some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production in the wet season, but the electricity price is higher than that in Sichuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The de - stocking rhythm did not continue, and the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The "anti - involution" of polysilicon boosted the market, and the demand from the organic silicon industry provided support [1]. - **Trend**: The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to the marginal improvement in demand and the unresolved supply pressure [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price center of polysilicon moved up significantly, mainly due to the emphasis on "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1]. - **Supply**: With the arrival of the wet season in the southwest, leading enterprises may increase production, and the total output is expected to exceed 100,000 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 272,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer price continued to decline, the battery sector relied on export orders, the component new orders were insufficient, and the terminal procurement decreased due to policy transition [1]. - **Trend**: The "anti - involution" expectation has not been fully digested, and the theme still has room for development [1]. Recommended Strategies - Short - sell Shanghai tin above 270,000 yuan. In the long - term, the fundamental trend will suppress the high tin price [1]. - Short - sell Shanghai aluminum on rallies. The high open interest may lead to a market reversal, and short - selling can be considered due to weak downstream demand [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to various market factors, including government policies aimed at improving industry conditions and rumors regarding potential supply adjustments [2][6][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices hit the daily limit up, closing at 38,385 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7% and a trading volume increase of over 5,000 contracts [2]. - The market is experiencing significant speculation, with rumors about cost-based pricing and potential penalties for prices below minimum cost levels [2][3]. - Recent government initiatives encourage the development of high-power charging facilities and the integration of solar power and energy storage, contributing to positive market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The current weekly production of polysilicon remains stable at 21,300 tons, but the industry is facing high inventory levels and has been in a loss-making phase since May of the previous year [5][7]. - Demand from the downstream photovoltaic sector is showing signs of improvement, with expectations for increased consumption of polysilicon [5][6]. - Despite the positive price movements, there are concerns about weak downstream demand, which could lead to further declines in consumption if high costs are passed down [7][8]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average market price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 39 yuan/kg, reflecting a 3 yuan/kg increase from the previous period [4][5]. - P-type polysilicon prices remain stable, with no changes reported, while N-type products are experiencing significant price increases [5]. - The overall market sentiment indicates a potential for price recovery, but the lack of substantial support from actual transactions raises concerns about the sustainability of the price increases [5][6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows an oscillating trend. After major manufacturers cut production, the supply - side pressure decreases, the southwest region's operation rate is lower than in previous years, and the consumption side increases. The subsequent focus should be on the operation status of major manufacturers and policy disturbances [2]. - Recently, polysilicon enterprises have actively raised spot quotes in response to the national anti - involution policy. Currently, there are few actual transactions, and terminal installation is expected to decline significantly. The futures market has continuously risen due to policy and capital sentiment. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and price transmission [6]. Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On July 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillating trend. The main contract 2509 opened at 7980 yuan/ton and closed at 8045 yuan/ton, a change of 55 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2509 main contract was 384,707 lots, and on July 8, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 51,349 lots, a change of - 352 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8700 - 8800 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming and Sichuan decreased, while those in Huangpu Port, Tianjin, the Northwest, Shanghai, and Xinjiang remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10300 - 10600 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic organic silicon DMC production increased by 13.75% month - on - month and decreased by 1.60% year - on - year. In July, although the operation rate of some domestic monomer enterprises decreased, the overall impact was limited, and the estimated organic silicon production in July increased by 1.53% month - on - month [1]. Polysilicon - On July 7, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures maintained an oscillating pattern, opening at 35100 yuan/ton and closing at 36515 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 2.86% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 105,230 lots (77,334 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 440,264 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quoted price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a month - on - month change of 0.74%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a month - on - month change of - 4.43%), the weekly polysilicon production was 24,000.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 1.69%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.90GW (a month - on - month change of - 11.46%) [3]. Silicon Wafers - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.87 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.19 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 0.99 yuan/piece. Affected by the policy orientation of the polysilicon end, the downstream silicon wafer market had a turning point, and the market trading atmosphere heated up, with stronger trading desire. However, enterprises remained cautious about the subsequent trend of the silicon wafer market [5]. Battery Cells - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.23 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.25 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. Components - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices [2]. - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - If the futures price corrects and the polysilicon price is smoothly transmitted downstream to silicon wafers and components, long positions can be laid out at low prices [6]. - Unilateral: None [8] - Inter - period: None [8] - Cross - variety: None [8] - Spot - futures: None [8] - Options: None [8] Group 5: Factors to Monitor - Resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions [4] - Changes in the operation rate of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Macroeconomic and capital sentiment [4] - Operation status of organic silicon enterprises [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78%, gaining 185 points to close at 24,073 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.29% [1] - The trading volume in Hong Kong reached HKD 117.2 billion in the morning session [1] - Stablecoin-related stocks surged, with Guotai Junan International rising by 16%, Multi-Point Smart increasing by 8%, and OSL Group also up by 8% [1] Group 2 - Jinyong Investment experienced a 150% surge due to a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore stablecoin applications [2] - Kuaishou-W saw a 3% increase, with institutions expecting the company's Q2 performance to meet market expectations [2] - Gold stocks rebounded in the morning session, with Tongguan Gold rising by 6% and China Gold International increasing by 3.82% [2] Group 3 - Huitongda Network rose over 7% after applying for full circulation of H-shares, which is expected to enhance stock liquidity and investment attractiveness [3] Group 4 - Basestone Pharmaceuticals-B increased by over 4% after granting commercialization rights for Sugli to Gentili in Western Europe and the UK [4] Group 5 - GCL-Poly Energy rose over 9%, with the polysilicon segment potentially becoming a breakthrough point for reversing internal competition, and the company is expected to achieve profitability [5] Group 6 - China Rare Earth Holdings rose over 7% after a failed transaction involving the sale of an Australian gold mine, and plans to spin off its business through an introduction [6] Group 7 - Hon Teng Precision rose by 8.8%, driven by strong performance in AI servers and iPhone business, with Foxconn showing steady growth in Q2 [7] Group 8 - Zhaoyan New Drug increased by over 10%, assisting in the approval of the restructuring of human coagulation factor VIIa for Chengdu Tianqing [8] Group 9 - Steel stocks saw a midday rally, with Chongqing Steel rising by 11%, as institutions expect improvements in industry supply and demand [9]

Report's Overall Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of silicon supply contraction is strengthening, and the price trend of new energy metals is becoming stronger. The central financial meeting has re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, enhancing investors' expectation of supply - side contraction in the silicon market, and the market sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - In the short - to - medium term, the strengthened expectation of supply - side contraction has led to a significant increase in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, which has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the elimination of domestic self - priced production capacity, but lithium carbonate still faces the problem of long - term over - supply if there is no substantial reduction in lithium ore production [2]. Summary by Catalog I. Market Views 1. Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and silicon prices are oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - As of July 7, the spot prices of industrial silicon have slightly rebounded. The price of oxygen - containing 553 in East China is 8750 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 9050 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - The central financial meeting and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition in the industry and the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity [7]. - **Main Logic**: The sudden production cut of large northwest factories has supported prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve marginally; otherwise, the supply surplus pressure remains. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but with the price rebound, some silicon factories have resumed production. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week, but there is a possibility of re - accumulation [8]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental surplus pattern of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The price rebound is mainly driven by policy expectations, and the silicon price is expected to oscillate [8]. 2. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy is taking effect, and polysilicon prices are oscillating and rebounding. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 34,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87% [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2780 lots, unchanged from the previous value [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9167.32 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. The cumulative import from January to May was 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.72% [9]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 197.85GW, a year - on - year increase of 150% [9]. - The central financial meeting emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition [10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain has been fluctuating. The polysilicon futures price has rebounded due to the policy. The production capacity in the southwest has increased with the arrival of the wet season, and the production in June - July is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. The photovoltaic installed capacity has increased significantly from January to May, but it has over - drawn the demand for the second half of the year, and the downstream product prices have started to fall [10]. - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in the supply side. The polysilicon price is expected to show wide - range oscillation [10]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: A large number of warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and the trend of lithium carbonate is strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillation [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On July 7, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.6% to 63,660 yuan. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 1661 lots to 591,177 lots [11]. - On July 7, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 250 yuan to 60,950 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 660 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 61,600 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 5481 tons to 15,555 tons [11]. - On July 4, Zangge Mining's subsidiary received a construction permit [11]. - **Main Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market is fermenting, and smelters are under maintenance. The weekly production has slightly decreased, and domestic lithium ore production is increasing while imported lithium salts are expected to decline. The demand for cathode materials has been growing from January to June, and the demand in July is expected to be better than expected. The social inventory is still increasing, and the warehouse - receipt inventory has been decreasing [12]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains in surplus, but the reduction of warehouse receipts in the short term supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [12]. II. Market Monitoring - Not provided with specific content for summary