| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年7月4日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营会乱胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13950 | 14000 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -65 | -125 | 60 | 48.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13900 | 13950 | -50 | -0.36% | | | 非标价差 | -115 | -175 | 60 | 34.29% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 48.55 | 48.20 | 0.35 | 0.73% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 54.50 | 55.00 | -0.50 | -0.91% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed Chair Powell indicated that stable economic activity allows the Fed to study the impact of tariff hikes on prices and economic growth before resuming rate cuts. If not for concerns about tariffs, the Fed might have continued to gradually cut rates this year. A well - known journalist believes that if the final tariff increase is lower than Trump's April announcement, the Fed's rate - cut strategy may change [8] - For caustic soda, the spot price decline is not over, but the impact of liquid chlorine should be noted. Although the supply pressure is large, due to the rapid decline in liquid chlorine prices, the cost of caustic soda has increased, and the far - month valuation may be repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited [10][12] - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the price - cut inflection point is postponed. The 08 contract will fluctuate and consolidate, and it is advisable to short the 10 contract at high prices [13][19] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising, and silver continues to rise. The prices of gold and silver in various markets showed different changes in the previous trading day, including price increases, changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [20][21] - Trend intensity: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [24] Copper - Copper: The strong spot price supports the price. The prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, and spreads of copper futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. Macro and industry news include the US manufacturing PMI situation, trade agreement impacts, and China's copper import data [26] - Trend intensity: Copper trend intensity is 1 [28] Zinc - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of zinc in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day. There is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [29][30] - Trend intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [30] Lead - Lead: There is an expectation of a peak season, which supports the price. The relevant data of lead in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the expansion project of a lead - zinc mine [32][33] - Trend intensity: Lead trend intensity is 1 [33] Tin - Tin: Driven by the macro - environment, the price goes up. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories of tin in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are some macro and industry news [35][36] - Trend intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [37] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity. Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the steel price is repaired but with limited elasticity. The relevant data of nickel and stainless steel in the industrial chain changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about nickel - related production and shutdown in Indonesia [39][40] - Trend intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [42] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate: The spot trading is light, and it runs weakly with fluctuations. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of lithium carbonate in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about lithium - related agreements [43][45] - Trend intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [45] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The upstream supply disturbances increase, and the market sentiment should be noted. Polysilicon: The market news continues to cause disturbances, and the upward space should be noted. The relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the photovoltaic glass industry [46][48] - Trend intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [48] Iron Ore - Iron ore: The expectations fluctuate, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of iron ore in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about industrial enterprise profits [49] - Trend intensity: Iron ore trend intensity is 0 [49] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both fluctuate widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of rebar and hot - rolled coil in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about economic indicators and steel production and inventory [51][52][53] - Trend intensity: Rebar trend intensity is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend intensity is 0 [54] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Affected by the sector sentiment, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices [55][56] - Trend intensity: Ferrosilicon trend intensity is 0, and silicomanganese trend intensity is 0 [57] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal: Affected by the downstream environmental - protection production cuts, they fluctuate weakly. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of coke and coking coal in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about coal prices and positions [60][62] - Trend intensity: Coke trend intensity is 0, and coking coal trend intensity is 0 [62] Steam Coal - Steam coal: The daily consumption recovers, and it stabilizes with fluctuations. The trading situation of steam coal in the previous trading day is introduced, and there are news about coal prices and positions [64][66] - Trend intensity: Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [67] Logs - Logs: The main contract switches, and it fluctuates widely. The prices, trading volumes, positions, and other data of logs in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there is news about the US dollar index [68][70] - Trend intensity: Log trend intensity is - 1 [70] Paraxylene, PTA, and MEG - Paraxylene: Go long on the positive spread at low prices. PTA: Go long on PX and short on PTA. MEG: Stop the profit of going long on PTA and short on MEG. The prices, trading volumes, spreads, and other data of paraxylene, PTA, and MEG in the futures and spot markets changed in the previous trading day, and there are news about the polyester market [71][73]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term rubber prices rebound due to market sentiment, but with supply increasing and demand weakening, prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 yuan/ton and monitor raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Industrial Silicon - The short - term price of industrial silicon futures rises supported by demand recovery and production cuts, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not improved. Technically, the price is still strong [3]. Polysilicon - The current contradiction in the polysilicon market is the mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations. In July, demand is likely to remain weak. If production resumes, prices will be under pressure; if significant production cuts are implemented, prices may stabilize and rebound [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is a short - term boost, but the medium - term is under pressure. Wait for trading opportunities after the sentiment fades. For glass, it is in the off - season, facing over - supply pressure, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate between 950 - 1050 [6]. Logs - The log market is entering a supply - and - demand dual - weak pattern. The 07 contract is strong due to the first - delivery cost game, and short - term oscillation is expected [8]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 250 yuan/ton to 14,100 yuan/ton on June 27, a 1.81% increase [1]. - The full - latex basis switched to the 2509 contract rose 128.95% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread rose 20 yuan/ton to - 825 yuan/ton, a 2.37% increase [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in April decreased by 43.5 thousand tons to 105.7 thousand tons, a 29.16% decline [1]. - China's natural rubber import volume in May decreased by 6.98 tons to 45.34 tons, a 13.35% decline [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded - area inventory increased by 1,410 tons to 606,975 tons, a 0.23% increase [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed S15530 industrial silicon rose 100 yuan/ton to 8,300 yuan/ton on June 27, a 1.22% increase [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread rose 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, a 133.33% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in May increased by 0.69 tons to 30.77 tons, a 2.29% increase [3]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.29 tons to 17.29 tons, a 1.65% decline [3]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained at 34,500 yuan/ton on June 27 [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract rose 1,600 yuan/ton to 33,315 yuan/ton, a 5.04% increase [4]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production in May increased by 0.07 tons to 9.61 tons, a 0.73% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 27 tons, a 3.05% increase [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Price and Spread - The North China glass quotation remained at 1,140 yuan/ton [6]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The North China soda ash quotation remained at 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. Supply - The soda ash production rate decreased by 5.04% to 82.21% [6]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 67.1 tons to 6,921.6 tons, a 0.96% decline [6]. Real Estate Data - The new construction area increased by 2.99% to - 18.73% [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Price - The log 2509 contract decreased by 2.5 yuan/cubic meter to 791 yuan/cubic meter, a 0.32% decline [8]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.01 to 7.168 [8]. Supply and Demand - The number of ships at the port decreased by 5 to 58, a 7.94% decline [8]. Inventory - The national coniferous log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters to 3.35 million cubic meters as of June 20 [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

Report on Natural Rubber 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View In the expectation of increasing supply and weak demand, the rubber price is expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 24, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,850 yuan/ton, with a 0.36% increase. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 335 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton, with a 223.33% increase. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton, with a 1.45% decrease [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 870 yuan/ton, with a 3.57% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, with a 33.33% increase; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 890 yuan/ton, with a 2.30% increase [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, Thailand's production decreased by 43,500 tons to 105,700 tons, with a 29.16% decrease; Indonesia's production decreased by 15,200 tons to 194,100 tons, with a 7.26% decrease; India's production decreased by 7,600 tons to 45,400 tons, with a 14.34% decrease; China's production increased by 42,300 tons to 58,100 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.31 percentage points to 78.29%, and that of full - steel tires increased by 4.24 percentage points to 65.48% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 1,410 tons to 606,975 tons, with a 0.23% increase. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2,620 tons to 32,256 tons, with a 7.51% decrease [1]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View For soda ash, the current oversupply situation is obvious, and there will be a further profit - reduction process. The previous photovoltaic resumption brought some demand, but the growth of photovoltaic capacity has slowed down. After the maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions. For glass, the spot market is improving, but the demand will slow down in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050, and there is still pressure in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged on June 25. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,106 yuan/ton, with a 0.36% increase; the glass 2509 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton to 1,015 yuan/ton, with a 0.79% increase [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,199 yuan/ton, with a 0.58% decrease; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 1,161 yuan/ton, with a 1.00% decrease [4]. - **Supply Volume**: As of June 20, the soda ash operating rate increased by 6.33 percentage points to 84.90%, and the weekly production increased by 55,000 tons to 740,100 tons, with an 8.04% increase. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 1,000 tons to 155,700 tons, with a 0.70% decrease; the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1,000 tons to 98,990 tons, with a 1.00% decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the glass factory warehouse increased by 1,923,000 weight - boxes to 69,685,000 weight - boxes, with a 2.84% increase. The soda ash factory warehouse increased by 62,000 tons to 1,686,300 tons, with a 3.82% increase; the soda ash delivery warehouse decreased by 20,000 tons to 327,100 tons, with a 5.87% decrease [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 2.99 percentage points to - 18.73%; the construction area decreased by 7.56 percentage points to - 33.33%; the completion area increased by 15.67 percentage points to - 11.68%; the sales area increased by 12.13 percentage points to - 1.55% [4]. Report on Log Futures 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The log futures were weak. The market is in a situation of weakening supply and demand during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The 07 contract has intense long - short competition around the delivery cost. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: On June 24, the log 2507 contract decreased by 12.5 yuan/cubic meter to 806.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 1.53% decrease; the log 2509 contract decreased by 5.5 yuan/cubic meter to 794.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.69% decrease; the log 2511 contract decreased by 1 yuan/cubic meter to 794 yuan/cubic meter, with a 0.13% decrease [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipping volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1,955,000 cubic meters, with a 13.20% increase. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, with a 7.94% decrease [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the national log inventory decreased by 100,000 cubic meters to 3,350,000 cubic meters, with a 2.90% decrease. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1,990,000 cubic meters, with a 1.00% decrease; the inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 23,000 cubic meters to 1,109,900 cubic meters, with a 2.05% decrease [5]. - **Demand**: As of June 20, the daily average warehouse - out volume increased by 38,000 cubic meters to 636,000 cubic meters, with a 6.35% increase. The daily average warehouse - out volume in Shandong increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 340,000 cubic meters, with a 3% increase; the daily average warehouse - out volume in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 226,000 cubic meters, with a 19% increase [5]. Report on Industrial Silicon 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly. Although the demand is increasing, the supply is increasing even more. Pay attention to the change of the spot - futures arbitrage window. The increase in the production of polysilicon and silicone is beneficial to the demand for industrial silicon and inventory digestion, as well as the arbitrage of buying industrial silicon and shorting polysilicon. But if the demand weakens again, the inventory pressure will suppress the price of industrial silicon [6]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On June 24, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,150 yuan/ton. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton; the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged at 7,600 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, with a 50.00% increase; the 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton, with a 16.67% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased by 0.69 million tons to 30.77 million tons, with a 2.29% increase. The production in Xinjiang decreased by 0.44 million tons to 16.31 million tons, with a 2.60% decrease; the production in Yunnan decreased by 0.34 million tons to 1 million tons, with a 25.43% decrease; the production in Sichuan increased by 1.24 million tons to 2.37 million tons, with a 109.47% increase [6]. - **Inventory Change**: As of June 24, the Xinjiang inventory decreased by 1.09 million tons to 17.58 million tons, with a 5.81% decrease; the Yunnan inventory increased by 0.04 million tons to 2.62 million tons, with a 1.55% increase. The social inventory decreased by 1.3 million tons to 55.9 million tons, with a 2.27% decrease [6]. Report on Polysilicon 1. Investment Rating Not provided. 2. Core View The polysilicon futures price fluctuated greatly. The current fundamental contradiction is the mismatch between weak demand and high supply, which leads to a strong expectation of price decline. Pay attention to the production release of polysilicon. If there is continuous resumption of production, the price will be under pressure. Hold short positions cautiously [7]. 3. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On June 24, the average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to 3,415 yuan/ton, with a 12.10% decrease; the cauliflower - like material basis (average price) decreased by 470 yuan/ton to 9,415 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% decrease [7]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 470 yuan/ton to 31,085 yuan/ton, with a 1.54% increase. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, with a 6.29% increase; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 125 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton, with a 34.72% increase [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the polysilicon production increased by 0.07 million tons to 9.61 million tons, with a 0.73% increase. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.21 million tons to 0.08 million tons, with a 72.71% decrease; the polysilicon export volume increased by 0.08 million tons to 0.21 million tons, with a 66.17% increase [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spread widened slightly this week [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of June 15, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in June, all going to the Chinese mainland. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in June and 0 in July, with an expected arrival volume of 310,000 cubic meters in June [5][8][9]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 22,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 100 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 125,180 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 535,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 34,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 373,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 19,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 246,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 41,900 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.4077 million cubic meters, a slight increase of 58,300 cubic meters from the previous week [6][14]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 13, the main contract LG2507 closed at 767.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.1% from last week. The market was in a low - level oscillation, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 07 - 09 spread was - 17 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread was - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread was - 3.5 yuan/cubic meter [17]. 3.4 Price and Spread - **Spot Price**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 775 yuan/cubic meter, both unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were still in short supply [4]. - **Regional Spread**: The report presents the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu, such as the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [21][24][31] - **Species and Specification Spread**: It shows the price differences between different species and specifications, like the difference between 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc. [45][46][50] 3.5 Other - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: As of the week of June 15, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1968 points, up 335 points (20.5%) from last week. The related Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 604 points, up 0.7% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 2088.24 points, down 6.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index hit a new low this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.1% from last week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.1% from last week [58][59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price rose sharply due to the smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70. The short - term focus is on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [1][2]. - The asphalt price is expected to be supported in the short - term due to strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [4][5][6]. - The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [8][9][10]. - The natural gas price is expected to rise due to increasing demand in the US and Europe [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [17][18]. - The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [20][21]. - The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [21][22][23]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [25][26]. - The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [27][28][29]. - The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [30][31]. - The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [32][33][34]. - The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [37][38][39]. - The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [40][41][42]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [43][44]. - The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [44][45]. - The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [46][47][48]. - The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread [49][50]. - The natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $68.15, up $3.17 per barrel (+4.88%); Brent2508 contract settled at $69.77, up $2.90 per barrel (+4.34%); SC main contract 2507 rose to 481.2 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 497.4 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Related Information**: Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the US planned to evacuate some embassy staff in Iraq due to increased security risks, which led to a more than 4% increase in oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to a sharp rise in oil prices. It is expected to test the fulfillment of expectations around $70, with short - term focus on the Brent range of $68.5 - $72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wait - and - see [3]. 2. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 night - session closed at 3475 points (+0.40%); BU2512 night - session closed at 3824 points (+0.30%) [4]. - **Related Information**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong decreased, while that in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained stable. The demand was weak, and the supply was expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: In the short - term, the asphalt price is supported by strong cost and low inventory, but the price may be under pressure in the long - term considering the weak demand and increasing supply [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread weakening; wait - and - see for options [7]. 3. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2507 night - session closed at 4088 (-0.41%); PG2508 night - session closed at 3980 (-0.55%) [7]. - **Related Information**: The propane market was stable with some declines, and the supply in South China decreased while that in Shandong increased [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic LPG market is under pressure in the summer off - season due to increasing supply and weak demand, with a weakening fundamental situation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a weakening trend [8]. 4. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract night - session closed at 2943 (+0.89%); LU08 night - session closed at 3610 (+1.23%) [8]. - **Related Information**: Russia's offline primary refining capacity in July is expected to increase by 21%, and the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah increased [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong spot transactions, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak supply - demand situation with increasing supply and weak demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 spread when the price is low [8][11]. 5. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased, but the demand was strong, and the price is expected to rise. In Europe, the natural gas price rose due to high - temperature weather and increasing cooling demand [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH when the price is low; oscillation for TTF [13]. 6. PX and PTA - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6528 (+0.40%), night - session closed at 6504 (-0.37%); TA509 main contract closed at 4620 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 4602 (-0.39%) [14][15]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14][15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX and PTA markets are in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, maintaining a tight balance [14][15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; long PX and short PTA for spreads; double - selling options [16][17]. 7. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4285 (+0.37%), night - session closed at 4269 (-0.37%) [17]. - **Related Information**: A synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for maintenance [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The ethylene glycol market will show a pattern of decreasing supply and demand in June [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [18][19]. 8. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6414 (+0.88%), night - session closed at 6374 (-0.62%) [19]. - **Related Information**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber market has a strong expectation of production reduction due to losses and increasing inventory [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 9. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2509 main contract closed at 5802 (+0.17%), night - session closed at 5788 (-0.24%) [20]. - **Related Information**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was mostly stable, with some decreases [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply and weak downstream willingness to purchase, with processing fees under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; double - selling options [20]. 10. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7349 (+0.04%), night - session closed at 7372 (+0.31%) [21]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports increased, while the inventory of styrene in East China main ports decreased [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The styrene market has strong cost support but increasing supply expectation, and the high price may be difficult to maintain [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [22]. 11. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot market was in range - bound consolidation; caustic soda spot price in Shandong decreased [24][25]. - **Related Information**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased [25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC market is expected to be in a situation of oversupply in the medium - long term, and the caustic soda market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, short on rebounds; for PVC, wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the long - term; caustic soda 7 - 9 and 8 - 10 reverse spreads after the spot weakens; wait - and - see for options [27]. 12. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in some regions increased slightly, and the price of PP in some regions increased [27][28]. - **Related Information**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased slightly, and the PP maintenance ratio increased [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: The polyolefin market has large production capacity release pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak supply - demand expectation for the 09 contract [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see in the short - term and short on rebounds in the medium - term; wait - and - see for spreads and options [29]. 13. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 998 yuan/ton (+0.30%), night - session closed at 985 yuan/ton (-1.30%) [29]. - **Related Information**: The domestic float glass market price was basically stable, and the trading volume was average [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is about to enter the off - season, with weak downstream demand and a short - term weakening price trend [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [32]. 14. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1202 yuan/ton (-0.5%), night - session closed at 1189 yuan (-1.1%) [32]. - **Related Information**: The domestic soda ash market was weak, with some enterprises' prices declining [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash market has a bearish fundamental situation, with increasing supply and potential demand decline, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - led, with intensified long - short game; price still has room to decline; wait - and - see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money call options [35]. 15. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2288 (+0.35%) [36]. - **Related Information**: The methanol port inventory increased, and the international device operating rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The methanol market is short - term strong but bearish in the long - term due to increasing supply and stable demand [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, do not chase; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options [37]. 16. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1667 (-0.66%) [37]. - **Related Information**: The daily output of urea increased, and the inventory of urea production enterprises increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea market has a large supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend, do not chase short; wait - and - see for spreads; sell call options on rebounds [40]. 17. Log - **Market Review**: The log futures main contract closed at 765 yuan/cubic meter, down 6 yuan/cubic meter [41]. - **Related Information**: The log spot market was stable, and the sea freight of imported coniferous logs decreased [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The log market is under pressure in the long - term due to weak real - estate demand and increasing port inventory, but the futures price may have a repair expectation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see; consider 9 - 11 reverse spreads; wait - and - see for options [43]. 18. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The double - offset paper market was stable with some declines [43]. - **Related Information**: The supply and demand of the double - offset paper market changed little, and the social demand was still weak [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices remaining low and volatile [44]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 19. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The price of corrugated paper and box - board paper decreased slightly [44]. - **Related Information**: The market sentiment was weak, and the raw material cost increased [44][45]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market may be supported in the short - term by policy dividends, but it needs to be vigilant against the pressure of over - capacity and weak demand in the long - term [45]. - **No specific trading strategy provided**. 20. Pulp - **Market Review**: The pulp futures were weakly running [46]. - **Related Information**: A new pulp product was launched by Stora Enso [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pulp market is bearish due to the decline in production capacity utilization in the US and Japan [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP main 07 contract; wait - and - see for spreads [48]. 21. Butadiene Rubber and Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: The BR main 08 contract closed at 11045, unchanged; the RU main 09 contract closed at 13815 (-0.54%); the NR main 08 contract closed at 12050 (-0.54%) [49][52]. - **Related Information**: The US tire imports increased in the first four months of 2025 [50][53]. - **Logic Analysis**: The butadiene rubber market has a positive impact on the BR - RU spread and a negative impact on the BD - BR spread; the natural rubber market is affected by the El Nino index and import volume, with different impacts on the RU and NR spreads [50][54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the BR main 08 contract; consider BR2508 - NR2508 and BR2509 - RU2509 spreads; hold long positions for RU and NR main contracts; wait - and - see for options [5

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the market trends and investment outlooks for various commodities on June 10, 2025, covering precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trend intensities of each commodity to guide investors [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2508 closed at 774.72 yuan, down 1.09% [2][7]. - **Silver**: There was a technical breakthrough. The trend intensity is 2. The price of Shanghai Silver 2508 closed at 8909 yuan, up 0.70% [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of LME copper strengthened, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,910 yuan, down 0.03% [2][12]. - **Aluminum**: It was in a sideways consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20025 yuan, down 45 yuan [2][15]. - **Alumina**: It continued to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2892 yuan, down 9 yuan [2][15]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories increased, and the price was under downward pressure. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 21910 yuan, down 2.12% [2][18]. - **Lead**: In the short - term, both supply and demand were weak, but it was bullish in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16765 yuan, down 0.09% [2][21]. - **Tin**: It stopped falling and rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 263,740 yuan, up 0.05% [2][25]. - **Nickel**: There was a game between real - world support and weak expectations, and the nickel price fluctuated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 122,710 yuan [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The negative feedback led to increased production cuts, and the steel price fluctuated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan [2][28]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related (not directly mentioned)** - **Fuel Oil**: The daytime session was weak, and it would enter an adjustment phase in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FU2507 closed at 2,927 yuan, down 0.54% [2][141]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly showed a fluctuating trend, and the spot price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur in the international market continued to rise. The trend intensity is 0. The price of LU2507 closed at 3,583 yuan, down 0.31% [2][141]. - **Coal - related** - **Coking Coal**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The price of JM2509 closed at 780 yuan, up 1.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Coke**: It fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of J2509 closed at 1339 yuan, down 11.5 yuan [2][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand awaited release, and it fluctuated widely. The trend intensity is 0. The previous opening price of ZC2507 was 931.6 yuan [2][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There were large differences in the pressure from the producing areas, and it was bottom - grinding with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the palm - oil main contract closed at 8,182 yuan, up 0.89% [2][169]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force was temporarily weak, and it oscillated in a range. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the soybean - oil main contract closed at 7,766 yuan, up 0.36% [2][169]. - **Soybean Meal**: The weather was normal, and US soybeans closed down. Dalian soybean meal might follow the decline. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of DCE Soybean Meal 2509 closed at 3019 yuan, up 28 yuan [2][174]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The price of DCE Soybean 2507 closed at 4138 yuan, down 4 yuan [2][174]. - **Corn**: It trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of C2507 closed at 2,357 yuan, up 0.90% [2][177][178]. - **Sugar**: It was in a low - level consolidation. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the futures main contract closed at 5734 yuan, down 1 yuan [2][183]. - **Cotton**: It continued to be affected by market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of CF2509 closed at 13,495 yuan, up 1.01% [2][187]. - **Eggs**: The industry still had a resistance sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Eggs 2507 closed at 2,837 yuan, down 1.18% [2][191]. - **Hogs**: Weight reduction had just started, waiting for confirmation from the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Henan's spot hogs was 13900 yuan/ton [2][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PK510 closed at 8,310 yuan, down 1.17% [2][196]. Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price stabilized, and the weak oscillation continued. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 260 yuan [2][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The upward space was limited, and short - selling on rallies was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of Si2507 closed at 7,475 yuan, up 185 yuan [2][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - selling on the futures was recommended. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of PS2507 closed at 34,105 yuan, down 635 yuan [2][36]. - **PTA**: Demand weakened, and the medium - term trend was weak. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the PTA main contract closed at 4602 yuan, down 1.1% [2][63][64]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the MEG main contract closed at 4256 yuan, down 0.1% [2][63][64]. - **Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract was 13,725 yuan, up 75 yuan [2][70][72]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the butadiene - rubber main contract was 11,270 yuan, down 30 yuan [2][75]. - **Asphalt**: It followed crude oil and trended strongly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is 1. The price of BU2507 closed at 3,519 yuan, up 0.28% [2][78]. - **LLDPE**: It oscillated in the short - term and still faced pressure later. The trend intensity is 0. The price of L2509 closed at 7078 yuan, up 0.08% [2][89]. - **PP**: The spot price was stable, and there was just - in - time demand. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PP2509 closed at 6932 yuan, up 0.09% [2][94]. - **Caustic Soda**: The valuation was under pressure due to high profits. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 2308 yuan [2][97]. - **Pulp**: It oscillated. The trend intensity is 0. The daytime closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,394 yuan, up 114 yuan [2][101][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. The trend intensity is 0. The price of FG509 closed at 1006 yuan, up 1.31% [2][106][107]. - **Methanol**: It rebounded in the short - term, but the medium - term pressure was still large. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the methanol main contract closed at 2,277 yuan, up 4 yuan [2][109][110]. - **Urea**: It was in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of the urea main contract closed at 1,697 yuan, down 23 yuan [2][114][115]. - **Styrene**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Styrene 2506 closed at 7,360 yuan, up 127 yuan [2][118]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. The trend intensity is 0. The price of SA2509 closed at 1,202 yuan, down 0.91% [2][121][122]. - **LPG**: It oscillated in the short - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of PG2507 closed at 4,116 yuan, up 0.44% [2][124][126]. - **PVC**: The trend still faced pressure. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 09 - contract futures was 4816 yuan [2][136]. Others - **Log**: It oscillated repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. The price of the 2507 contract closed at 772 yuan, up 0.5% [2][58][60]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It oscillated at a high level; hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread. The trend intensity is 0. The price of EC2506 closed at 1,948.6 points, down 0.31% [2][143]. - **Short - Fiber**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Short - Fiber 2507 closed at 6388 yuan, down 6 yuan [2][162]. - **Bottle - Chip**: It oscillated in the short - term and was weak in the medium - term. The trend intensity is 0. The price of Bottle - Chip 2507 closed at 5868 yuan, down 32 yuan [2][162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It trended weakly with fluctuations. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of 70g Tianyang in the Shandong market was 4950 yuan/ton [2][166][167].

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...