1. 对于持有风电、可控核聚变等强势板块仓位的朋友，可以多一份耐心，只要趋势不破、逻辑未变，就 继续持有，让利润奔跑。 2. 对于手中仍持有零售、地产等弱势板块的朋友，需要认真审视。如果其基本面没有超预期改善，今天 的下跌可能不是终点。可以考虑借助市场若有反弹的机会，将资金调整到更具活力的新主线上来。 3. 对于想入场的朋友，切记"买在分歧"。今天的放量下跌制造了分歧和波动，对于看好的新主线（如高 端制造、绿色科技），不必追高，可以耐心等待其跟随市场回调时，寻找低吸布局核心品种的机会。重 点关注那些有业绩支撑、有订单验证的标的。 总而言之，朋友们，今天的市场像一次压力测试，检验着每一笔资金的成色。它告诉我们，普涨行情不 易，但结构性的星辰大海依然波澜壮阔。在分化加剧的时代，我们的投资也必须更加精准。记住帮主的 话：在潮水退去时，不仅要看出谁在裸泳，更要看清哪块礁石最为坚硬。 第一个信号，是 "放量"本身。下跌时放量，说明在这个位置多空分歧巨大，有资金在卖出，但同时也 有资金在果断承接。这跟无量阴跌有本质区别。这些承接资金看中的是什么？很可能就是第二个信号 —— "新老主线"的激烈交锋。 今天盘面一半是海水，一 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-12-11 上游价格持续分化，关注年末下游促销进展 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）国家统计局发布数据，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业 生产者出厂价格同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。 服务行业：1）北京时间周四凌晨03:00，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决议，宣布降息25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场"鹰派降息"预期。"点阵图"显示，决策者预计2026 年只会再降息一次，2027年再降一次，然后利率将回到3%的长期水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前利率水平处 于良好位置，可应对经济前景变化，但他未对近期是否会再次降息提供指引。鲍威尔指出："值得注意的是，自去 年9月以来，我们已累计降息175个基点，其中自今年9月以来就下调了75个基点。目前，联邦基金利率已位于中性 水平的一个大致区间，我们也处于有利位置，可以等待观察经济的进一步发展"。2）全国零售业创新发展大会12 月9日至10日在北京举行，商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国 内大循 ...

A股复盘 | 都要违约了还涨停 / 2025.12.10 万科下午竟然直线拉涨停了？又有什么小作文？且听我娓娓道来！ 早上，彭博报道， 万科今天召开持有人会议，争取债券展期，以避免违约。我没在意这条消息，上午地产也没什么太大动静。 下午万科忽然就要涨停了，赶紧找"小作文"。 一个没有找到原文了解的彭博消息出来了，说是据知情人士透露，中金再度参与万科 shukun，shukun方案已提交 。 但是仔细观察发现，这与11月26日REDD报的差不多， 当时的报道是，两名人士称，SZ 已将一份由中金参与建议的万科报告提交至省，省 将报告转呈至ZY。 就在我准备发的时候，地产小作文哐哐又出来了！不知道的还以为又要四万亿呢 关键是，后来彭博也发了地产异动的文章，但是原因中没写那条号称来自彭博的"小作文"，所以大概率是"炒冷饭"！ 不过临近收盘，万科今日持有人会议内容也流出，主要包括：12月15 日到期的20亿元人民币债券讨论展期一年，如果投资者不投票赞成， 公司将利用宽限期继续与投资者进行谈判。 会上万科强调，其流动性压力"一直在不断升级"，并指出， 该公司的房屋销售已从2021年的水平下降了78%而在此期间，该公司交付 ...

10日，两市股指早盘弱势下探，创业板指一度跌超2%，午后逐渐止跌，一度翻红；沪指跌幅明显收 窄。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.23%报3900.5点，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指微跌0.02%，沪深北三市合计成交 17918亿元。 盘面上看，银行、食品饮料等板块走低，地产板块午后拉升，零售、保险、酿酒、券商等板块上扬，海 南自贸、黄金概念等活跃。 德邦证券指出，近期指数分化与板块轮动加剧，资金向科技成长与政策催化板块集中，算力硬件、消费 等板块或成为短期主线。未来1—2周或将是国内外政策密集落地期，美联储政策、国内经济工作会议、 AI技术迭代等或将成为影响市场走势和风格的关键变量，需密切跟踪事件落地节奏与市场预期差。市 场当前预期美联储12月大概率降息25BP，若落地或将提振全球风险偏好，推动外资回流A股市场的概率 增加，但需警惕若出现"鹰派降息"对流动性冲击的影响。 ...

来源：股市直击 12月10日消息，指数午后回升，三大股指跌幅收窄。板块方面，午后地产股回暖，万科A午后直线拉升 封涨停；海南本地股冲高，神农种业20cm涨停，欣龙控股、罗牛山等多股涨停；大消费板块活跃，永 辉超市、中央商场、美凯龙涨停；下跌方面，AI应用板块大面积飘绿，胜宏科技跌幅居前；消费电子 板块持续调整，福蓉科技领跌。总体来看，两市个股跌多涨少，下跌个股超3400只。 截至发稿，沪指报3889.77点，跌0.51%，深成指报13243.13点，跌0.26%，创指报3183.14点，跌0.82%。 盘面上，海南自贸区、海南、贵金属板块涨幅居前；培育钻石、AI PC、其他电源设备板块跌幅居前。 ...

盘面上看，银行、石油、地产、化工等板块走低，零售板块再度活跃，海南自贸、免税概念、黄金概念 等活跃。 东莞证券表示，随着经济韧性增强、企业盈利改善，基本面叠加流动性的双轮驱动或成为市场主旋律。 在此背景下，低估值安全边际、高股息防御属性、业绩成长确定性强以及较强科技特征的行业板块或更 受市场青睐，关注即将出炉的美联储议息会议决议内容。 10日早盘，两市主要股指盘中震荡下探，沪指失守3900点，创业板指、科创50指数等跌超1%，全A超 3800股飘绿。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.72%报3881.51点，深证成指跌0.56%，创业板指跌1.23%，科创50指数跌 1.26%，沪深北三市合计成交11455亿元。 ...

Group 1: Economic Highlights - In November, production showed signs of weak improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9%[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November, supported by an increase in working days and a reduction in production overhang effects[1] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures may ease as the impact of debt repayment on investment diminishes, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[1] - Retail sales growth is projected at 2.7%[1] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains constrained by companies accelerating debt repayments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2%[2] - Real estate investment and sales are likely to decline further, with November housing sales down 33.1% year-on-year[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector keeps cost rates at historically high levels, negatively impacting profits[2] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - November inflation indicators are expected to show improvement, with CPI projected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities[3] - Core CPI may see limited improvement due to the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policy on downstream prices[3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and structural reshaping, characterized by undervaluation, capital misalignment, and performance differentiation, with a significant influx of southbound capital and a shift in foreign investment reshaping the funding landscape [1][2]. Valuation and Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 50% from the post-Lunar New Year of 2021 to January 2024, leading to a significant valuation gap [2]. - As of December 9, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index have recorded cumulative gains of 49.20%, 22.59%, and 24.32%, respectively [2]. - By the end of 2025, the expected EPS growth rate for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 8%, with a dynamic P/E ratio of only 12 times, indicating a notable valuation gap compared to major global markets [2]. Capital Flow and Investment Preferences - Southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of nearly 1.4 trillion HKD by the end of November, marking a new high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The capital structure shows a clear differentiation, with institutional investors favoring themes like non-bank ETFs and personal investors focusing on growth sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3]. - Foreign capital, while still experiencing outflows, has shown signs of recovery since August, with long-term foreign capital seeing its first phase of inflow since September 2022, particularly favoring the information technology sector [3]. Sector Performance and Outlook - The technology sector is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, contrasting sharply with traditional sectors like finance and real estate [4]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown volatility but continues to strengthen its core competitiveness, with the sector benefiting from advancements in AI and related technologies [4]. - The long-term trend of recovery in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, driven by policy dividends and external risk dynamics [5][6]. Investment Directions - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in four main sectors: technology, pharmaceuticals, resource products, and essential consumer goods, focusing on "earnings certainty + valuation elasticity" [8][9]. - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, is anticipated to benefit from a virtuous cycle of investment and revenue growth, with a focus on leading companies and quality players in the computing power supply chain [8]. - The pharmaceuticals sector is entering a phase of certain growth, supported by policy and industry developments, with a focus on innovative companies and those benefiting from domestic market reforms [8]. - The resource products sector is supported by supply-demand mismatches and liquidity drivers, with expectations of rising commodity prices benefiting related stocks [9]. - The essential consumer goods sector is poised for valuation recovery, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving income expectations [9].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "more declines than gains, structural differentiation" characteristic, with the technology growth sector being the core due to strong performance certainty and high industry prosperity [5]. Market Performance - 1,305 companies saw an increase in their stock prices, with a rise and fall ratio of 54:12, indicating a selective market performance [5]. - The total trading volume in both markets was 9.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.57%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment and a concentration of funds in a few sectors [6]. Sector Analysis - The computing hardware sector had the highest trading volume, while the retail sector benefited from consumption stimulus policies, leading to a significant increase in trading volume [6]. - Traditional cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, coal, and brokerage firms collectively adjusted due to a lack of catalysts and capital outflows [5]. Fund Flow and Sentiment - There was a net outflow of 617.91 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow, indicating a defensive repositioning by institutions away from the electronic and computing sectors towards banks and public utilities [7]. - Retail investors displayed cautious optimism, focusing on sectors driven by policy catalysts such as commercial aerospace and consumer recovery [7]. Investor Sentiment - The sentiment among retail investors was recorded at 75.85%, indicating a relatively positive outlook despite the cautious market environment [8].

盘后，大家都情绪化了。又是4000家股票下跌，光模块、算力再次大涨，也不能说是诱惑你接盘，本来就是正常的反弹行情罢了。之前跌得很多，目前涨得 多很正常。 小凡也趁机买了它们，不过是间接持有。我们是抄底的2900多点的创业板，也跟着它们上涨了，所以为什么要讨厌它们上涨，股市任何筹码上涨都是好事 儿，毕竟都利好指数…… 良性回调！ 小凡的策略肯定有用，关键是大多数连看文章的耐心都没有。别说让他们持有耐心了，我们一熬几年，守着自己这点一亩三分地。他们是消费者，我们是投 资者。股市和生活一样，守店的人赚钱，游客是消费者。 今日的回调在预期里面，这里对降息的预期，对工作会议的预期，不可能证券连续拉升，目前关键的行业还是证券、地产了，地产连续大幅回调是加速大消 费赶底。 月初的时候是7.5成仓，目前只有7成仓了，证券、创业都逢高减掉了浮仓。接下来，如果地产、白酒继续跌，可能会动用余粮补仓了，计划补到8成仓，这 样算大概率还可以接受它们跌10%…… 最后总结 不惧波动，就怕自己没有交易计划，跌了不敢买，涨了舍不得卖。为什么大家舍不得卖，因为你都是套住的筹码啊，不像我们是用浮仓捡的带血筹码，卖飞 也没有心理成本。 股市，不要 ...