宏观日报 | 2025-09-12 服务行业： 1）美国8月消费者价格指数同比增长2.9%，预估为2.9%，前值为2.7%；环比增长0.4%，预期增长0.3%， 前值0.2%。美国上周初请失业金人数为26.3万人，预估23.5万人，前值23.7万人。美国短期利率期货在CPI数据公 布后上涨，交易员对美联储降息的押注更加坚定，认为到2025年底美联储至少会降息两次。2）工业和信息化部办 公厅、民政部办公厅公布智能养老服务机器人结对攻关与场景应用试点项目名单。根据名单，此次试点围绕情感 陪护、康复支持、生活照料、移乘转运、辅助行走等10类应用场景，共包含32个智能养老服务机器人项目，譬如： 智能陪护机器人研发与应用、智能康养外骨骼机器人结对攻关与场景应用。每个项目设有1个牵头单位和若干参与 单位 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）化工：PTA、尿素价格回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格连续回升。 中游：1）化工：聚酯开工率上行。2）能源：电厂耗煤量提高。 关注服务业下游养老机器人试点 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）第26届中国国际光电博览会（以下简称"光博会"）于9月10日—12日在深圳国际会展中心 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in real estate sales, particularly in first-tier cities, while durable goods consumption shows signs of weakness due to high base effects from the previous year [2][10] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [2][10] Real Estate Sector - In the week of September 1-7, new home sales in 30 major cities increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a continued narrowing of sales decline [3][11] - The transaction area for new homes in first-tier cities decreased by 6.8%, while second and third-tier cities saw increases of 8.2% and 11.4%, respectively [3][11] - The construction activity in the real estate sector remains weak, with infrastructure demand still low, impacting the demand for construction materials [3][10] Durable Goods Consumption - National retail sales of passenger cars in August 2025 increased by 4.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [3][11] - The service consumption index saw a decline during the back-to-school week, with a notable drop in movie box office revenues by 51% compared to the previous week [3][11] Manufacturing & Technology - The construction demand in the real estate sector continues to be weak, affecting the overall construction activity [3][12] - Global semiconductor sales showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% in July 2025, driven by robust demand in AI-related applications [3][12] Upstream Resources - Coal prices have decreased by 1.6% month-on-month as the peak demand season comes to an end [4][12] - Gold prices have surged significantly due to expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with domestic industrial metal prices also showing slight increases [4][12] Logistics and Transportation - Passenger transport demand has declined month-on-month following the end of the summer season, although it remains higher year-on-year [13] - The logistics sector is experiencing a slight downturn, with a decrease in express delivery volumes [13]

报告导读： 地产政策优化，楼市景气边际改善；耐用品增长乏力，受高基数影响， 8 月 乘用车零售增速继续放缓，开学周服务景气有所回落；降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 地产销售边际改善，耐用品增长乏力。 上周（ 09.01-09.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）北上深等多地优化地产政策后，国内新房销售同比增速 延续改善，一线城市地产销售降幅继续收窄，楼市景气边际改善；但楼市的改善对地产开工影响微弱，且基建需求仍偏弱，建筑资源品需求仍在磨底，受益于 环保限产的钢铁价格小幅上涨，水泥价格仍明显下滑。 2 ）乘用车零售销量延续增长，但 24 年同期高基数影响下，增速明显放缓，耐用品景气持续性有待 观察；开学周，服务消费景气继续回落，电影票房环比大幅下滑，客运需求环比下降，但同比仍偏强。 3 ）汽车钢胎、 PTA/ 涤纶、钢厂高炉开工率环比下 降，或反映反内卷推行提高企业限产意愿，但工业品价格端仍未出现明显改善信号；受益于美联储降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 下游消费：一线城市地产销售降幅收窄，乘用车零售增速回落。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 +4.4% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品 ...

10日，两市股指盘中探底回升，创业板指、科创50指数涨超1%，全A成交额再度萎缩。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.13%报3812.22点，深证成指涨0.38%报12557.68点，创业板指涨1.27%报2904.27点， 科创50指数涨1.09%，沪深北三市合计成交20042亿元。 盘面上看，有色、煤炭、电力、钢铁、化工等板块走低，旅游餐饮、石油、传媒、地产、零售等板块拉 升，CPO概念、算力、卫星互联概念等活跃。 方正证券表示，去年9月份以来，A股市场流动性整体就在持续改善，两市成交中枢显著提升，融资规 模同样攀升至历史较高位。特别是今年4月份以来，面对外部冲击导致的全球股市巨大波动，资本市场 各参与主体通过增持回购等多种方式协力为A股市场提供源源不断的增量资金支持，A股市场在关税落 地后短暂调整后走出持续慢牛行情。展望未来，多重积极利好因素决定了中国资本市场长期向好的趋势 不会改变：一是经济中长期向好态势不变；二是A股估值较低权益资产性价比突出；三是上市公司质量 稳步提升夯实微观基础；四是分红回购不断增加提高投资者回报；五是耐心资本持续流入助力市场健康 发展。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Global inflation showed initial signs of rising in August. China's economic data in July still had resilience, but domestic monthly economic data faced pressure. The government emphasized measures to stabilize the real - estate market, expand consumption, and increase investment. China's August exports and imports had different trends, and September exports might improve due to a low base. The A - share market on September 9 was in an adjustment state. In the US, the manufacturing index contracted, and employment data was worse than expected. The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and there are concerns about its credibility crisis. In Japan, policy uncertainty increased, leading to a sell - off of long - term government bonds. For commodities, different sectors have different outlooks, and it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, global inflation began to rise. China's July exports increased year - on - year, supported by a low base and the "rush - to - export" effect. Financial data showed excessive money supply but weak financing and loan data. Investment data faced pressure. In August, China's exports grew by 4.4% year - on - year, a 2.8 - percentage - point decrease from July, mainly affected by a high base and tariffs. Exports to the US weakened, while those to emerging economies remained strong. Imports grew by 1.3% year - on - year, a 2.8 - percentage - point slowdown, dragged down by commodity imports. On September 9, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 3% in the afternoon. In the US, the August ISM manufacturing index contracted for the sixth consecutive month, and employment data was worse than expected [2]. Fed Policy - Powell's speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 turned dovish, indicating a possible policy adjustment. The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle as August's employment data was disappointing. There is a growing credibility crisis at the Fed, with criticism from Trump and the US Treasury Secretary. Trump has announced potential candidates for the next Fed chair, and the nomination of Milan is to be voted on [3]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for some products. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental support. Precious metals are a good long - term investment opportunity as the Fed is about to restart the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products and precious metals at low prices [5]. Key News - On September 9, the A - share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling. Gold, real - estate, and bank stocks performed well, while semiconductor and innovation - drug stocks declined. An explosion in Doha, Qatar, led to a short - term rise in international oil prices. The US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change was worse than expected. The Senate will vote on Milan's nomination as a Fed governor, and the FOMC is expected to cut interest rates in September [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The core recommended industries for September include Media, Computer, Real Estate, Brokerage, Non-ferrous Metals, Chemicals, and Consumer Services, covering growth, finance, cyclical, and consumer styles, with most being pro-cyclical sectors [1][4] - The real estate sector is highlighted for its potential due to policy shifts and favorable market conditions [2][8][15] Core Insights and Arguments - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is anticipated to boost resource prices and lead to a potential appreciation of the RMB, benefiting real estate, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [1][5] - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a significant increase of 53% year-to-date, with strategic metals being a key investment theme, particularly rare earth magnets [1][6] - The chemical industry is at a historical low in capacity, and with the Fed's expected rate cuts, there is potential for a rebound in prices and demand [1][7] - The real estate policy shift is evident, with relaxed purchase restrictions in major cities and a stronger RMB reducing overseas debt pressure for companies, leading to a revaluation of the sector [1][8][15] - Gold is viewed as a valuable asset during the transition of old and new orders, with a projected price increase due to rising interest rate cut probabilities and weakening dollar credit [1][9][10] Additional Important Insights - The real estate sector is currently characterized by a clear policy bottom, expectations of increased liquidity, and low institutional holdings, indicating high potential for upward movement [2][15] - The performance of real estate companies varies significantly, with leading firms like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou showing better-than-average sales performance [17][18] - The valuation recovery of real estate companies in Hong Kong is noted, with companies like China Resources Land and Jianfa International showing significant improvements, while A-share companies like China Merchants Shekou have yet to see similar recovery [19] - Current recommendations for real estate investments include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Jianfa Co., and Xinda Real Estate, with each having unique strengths and low valuations [20][22] - The overall strategy is shifting from policy speculation to value investing, focusing on companies that can maintain competitive advantages and stable profits even in a contracting industry [21]

Group 1 - The government is focused on addressing low price levels, with the 2024 government work report emphasizing the need to improve supply-demand relationships to maintain prices within a reasonable range [1] - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting highlighted the intention to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, indicating a market expectation for price recovery through "anti-involution" measures [1][2] - The current Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing prolonged low levels, primarily due to the drag from the energy, chemical, and real estate sectors, with "anti-involution" efforts having limited impact on PPI recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The low PPI is fundamentally a result of insufficient demand, with some industries experiencing profit declines despite sales growth due to aggressive price competition [4] - To achieve a reasonable recovery in PPI, both supply and demand sides need to work in tandem, with recent policies aimed at phasing out inefficient production capacity while balancing the need for economic growth [5][6] - The effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies is limited by various constraints, including trade friction and the sluggish real estate market, which affects overall investment and demand for industrial products [6][7]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index night futures (September) closed at 25,021 points, an increase of 48 points or 0.192% [1] - The index is trading at a discount of 38 points [1] - The total number of open contracts is 123,269, a decrease of 8,036 contracts [1] Group 2 - The net number of open contracts stands at 47,707, an increase of 1,529 contracts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment since August 2025 has been characterized by a strong performance in high-growth sectors, particularly in China's technology stocks, alongside a backdrop of rising global bond yields and shifting currency dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In August 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Sci-Tech 50 > ChiNext Index > CSI 300 > Gold > Hang Seng Tech > Dow Jones > LME Copper > European Stocks > NASDAQ > Hang Seng Index > RMB > 0 > China Bond > Nanhua Composite > USD > Crude Oil > Long VIX [1][14]. - Risk assets generally rose in August, with notable performance in Chinese assets, a concurrent appreciation of the RMB, and pressure on government bonds [2][14]. - The domestic equity market saw a broad increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 10.9% in August, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 13.4 basis points to 1.84% [2][27]. Group 2: Macro Trading Themes - The primary macro trading themes since August 2025 include a "high-growth narrative" led by the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index, a "rate cut trade" in the U.S. following downward revisions in employment data, and a rise in "risk aversion" reflected in increasing global bond yields [3][57]. - The U.S. employment data revision has opened a window for potential Fed rate cuts, influencing various asset classes to align with this "rate cut trade" [3][57]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators show that the U.S. hard data has remained stable while soft data has slightly improved since August, contrasting with Europe and Japan, where economic outlooks are mixed [4][70]. - China's economic indicators suggest a slowdown, with an estimated actual GDP growth of approximately 4.76% for August, aligning with seasonal economic characteristics [4][70]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has shown a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand housing performing better than new homes, indicating a trend of "price for volume" [2][42]. - The rental yield in major cities has remained above the 30-year government bond yield, although the leading margin has narrowed compared to previous periods [2][42]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Sentiment - The volatility in the market has seen a decrease in August, with the number of daily ranking changes among 19 asset classes dropping from 124 to 114 [15][62]. - The VIX index has shown signs of recovery, indicating increased market uncertainty and potential adjustments in global risk assets [15][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index: Bullish [1] - Treasury bonds: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has shown a "narrowing" trend since September, with high trading congestion in individual themes. Short - term corrections are normal due to factors like profit - taking. In the long run, the dovish stance of the Fed and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year will benefit the A - share market. Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system will also have a positive impact. Liquidity - driven market trends will continue with obvious structural features and accelerated sector rotation [1]. - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across different tenors. The central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan due to 379.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities. After continuous declines in August, the bond market adjustment is basically in place, but the strong performance of the equity market due to anti - involution expectations is negative for long - term bonds. Short - term bonds are expected to remain stable, while long - term bonds will see increased volatility [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,949.0 | 2,992.8 | - 43.8 | - 1.46% | | IF | 4,430.0 | 4,481.2 | - 51.2 | - 1.14% | | IC | 6,788.8 | 6,896.2 | - 107.4 | - 1.56% | | IM | 7,142.6 | 7,251.4 | - 108.8 | - 1.50% | [3] 3.1.2 Stock Indexes | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,961.0 | 2,992.9 | - 31.9 | - 1.07% | | CSI 300 | 4,459.8 | 4,490.5 | - 30.6 | - 0.68% | | CSI 500 | 6,868.5 | 6,961.7 | - 93.2 | - 1.34% | | CSI 1000 | 7,206.9 | 7,313.9 | - 107.0 | - 1.46% | [3] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 03 | 2025 - 09 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.45 | 102.41 | 0.036 | 0.04% | | TF | 105.73 | 105.57 | 0.155 | 0.15% | | T | 108.16 | 107.96 | 0.205 | 0.19% | | TL | 117.15 | 116.68 | 0.47 | 0.40% | [3] 3.2 Market News - China's RatingDog Services PMI in August was 53, up from 52.6 in the previous month. The RatingDog Composite PMI was 51.9, up from 50.8 in the previous month [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of their respective monthly basis [6][7][9][10][11] 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][16][17][18] 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, as well as the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [21][22][23][25][27]