宏宏宏宏宏宏宏宏宏 2026 年年年年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年S0630516080002 年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年S0630522020001 年年年年年年年年年 年年年年年年年S0630525100001 年年年年年年年 年年年年年liusj@longone.com.cn 2025 年12年28年 年年年年年年 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年年 一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一一一一一一一一一"一一一一一" 2025一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 CONTENTS 一一 一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一一 一一一一一一一一一一 一一一一一一 资料来源：国家统计局，海关总署， 东海证券研究所 2025年1-11月国内主要经济数据，% 5.90 1.30 5.40 -2.60 1.90 0.13 -15.90 4.9 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 -5 0 5 10 15 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 1 ...

Market Review - A-shares led global indices with major broad-based indices generally rising, particularly the CSI 500 and ChiNext, while the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day winning streak approaching 4000 points [1] - The market liquidity is abundant, with A-share trading volume continuing to expand, reaching over 2 trillion yuan on Friday, and the financing balance exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan, setting a historical high [1] - In terms of style, small-cap and growth styles outperformed, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, defense, and electric equipment leading gains, while beauty care, social services, and banking sectors declined [1] Market Outlook - Multiple funds are rushing to capitalize on the "spring rally," with a focus on buying on dips. The uncertainty in overseas monetary policy is dissipating, and the upcoming Chinese New Year and "Two Sessions" are expected to support risk appetite [2] - The "spring rally" conditions are accumulating, with key factors including reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and catalysts to boost risk appetite such as domestic policies and external risk mitigation [2] - The latest risk premium for the CSI 300 is at the median level of the past decade, indicating reasonable A-share valuations, while the central bank emphasizes continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [2] Fund Flows - The net subscription of A500 ETFs has become one of the important sources of incremental funds for A-shares at year-end, with a cumulative net subscription of 90.8 billion yuan in December, the highest since April [3] - The top six A500 ETF products saw a net inflow of 97.2 billion yuan since December, reflecting accelerated inflow of institutional funds [3] Financing and Currency Trends - The financing balance of A-shares reached a historical high of 2.53 trillion yuan as of December 25, with a net buy of 72 billion yuan in financing funds since December, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [4] - The strong performance of the RMB is favorable for foreign capital inflow, with the offshore RMB briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark against the USD, reflecting market confidence in the Chinese economy [4] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Focus on growth themes benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, innovative drugs, and energy storage [5] - Pay attention to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" price increases, such as chemicals, energy metals, and new energy [5] - Look for potential catalytic opportunities in the consumer sector due to the deepening of consumption policies [5]

5月27日，易方达基金、南方基金等公募旗下首批26只新型浮动费率基金产品鸣锣开售，并接连在6月与 7月的行情上行途中公告成立；不仅如此，此类产品发行热持续蔓延，年内已有61只新型浮动费率基金 成立。 5月份，首批新型浮动费率基金重磅发行，行情推演至年末，这批产品的业绩答卷已然揭晓。 首批浮动费率基金业绩参差不齐 行情演绎至年末，首批产品交出了不同的"成绩单"。据统计，截至12月26日，华商致远回报成立以来的 收益率居首，约为71.75%。其次是信澳优势行业，涨幅高达54.44%，嘉实成长共赢和易方达成长进取 两只基金涨幅亦超过四成，共计8只基金涨幅超过20%，15只产品涨超10%。 既有重仓AI赛道的基金斩获超70%的惊人收益，也有聚焦消费、医疗板块的产品表现承压，然而，不足 四成的基准跑赢率也体现了部分基金经理依旧显得"水土不服"。 有公募基金认为，此类产品将业绩比较基准作为考核的指挥棒，对基金经理的投研能力提出了更高要 求。尤其是面对主题基金的风格限制，基金经理仍有很大的主动空间，需要对产业链中个股作更深刻的 研究，并在持股集中度和仓位调整方面寻找更平衡的组合解。 华南某公募投研总监透露："现在一些基金经 ...

一月春季行情延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 2025 年 12 月 27 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 新股次新板块弱势博弈，新一轮活跃周期尚 在酝酿-华金证券新股周报 2025.12.21 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 2025.12.20 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 春季行情中行业如何轮动？ 2025.12.13 挖掘经济潜能，股市慢牛延续 2025.12.12 复盘历史，春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现偏强，主要受政策和外部事件、流 动性等因素影响。（1）春季行情提前启动时 A 股 1 月表现多偏强。（2）影响 1 月 A 股走势的主要因素是政策和外部事件、流动性等。一是政策和外部事件是影响 1 月 A 股走势的核心因素：首先，积极的政策和外部事件可能导致上证综指上涨， 如 2019 ...

Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits from January to November increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while profits in November alone fell by 13.1% due to weakening production and profit margins[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in December recorded 78.88%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%[1] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, driven primarily by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure[4] - Core PCE inflation in the U.S. rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a marginal increase in inflationary pressures[4] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4549.95 per ounce, while silver prices hit a record high of $79.33, reflecting a strong performance in precious metals markets[1] Market Trends - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2339.2, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 113.6%[1] - The average price of copper increased by 3.65% week-on-week, driven by a combination of weak dollar and improved global demand expectations[3] - The issuance of local government bonds is planned at 580 billion yuan for January 2026, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan issued this year, exceeding the annual quota[3]

Core Viewpoint - The investment accounts managed by the company have shown a mixed performance this year, with a total profit of 1.9 million yuan, down from a peak of 2.3 million yuan earlier in the year, indicating a drawdown of 400,000 yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Account Performance - The total assets in the on-market ETF account amount to 2.6 million yuan, while the off-market fund account holds 5.4 million yuan, and the advisory portfolio has 1.2 million yuan [7]. - The on-market ETF account has a year-to-date profit of 460,000 yuan, with a current yield of 40.19% [5][6]. - The off-market fund account has a year-to-date profit of 1.338 million yuan, with a yield of 34.21% [15][16]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its strategy by reducing its position in a value ETF by 100,000 yuan and reallocating that amount to the Hang Seng Consumer ETF, which has seen a decrease in floating profit from 11% to 8% [4]. - The rationale for this shift includes the belief that consumer valuations are at historical lows and that there will likely be consumption stimulus policies next year, which could improve industry sentiment [5]. - The core holdings in the on-market ETF account focus on Hong Kong stocks, with significant investments in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumer goods [8][9]. Group 3: Market Trends - The recent downturn in the Hong Kong stock market has not changed the company's long-term investment logic, which emphasizes the valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [10]. - The company has noted that the recent performance of aerospace and satellite ETFs has been strong, contributing significantly to this week's profits [11]. - The company adheres to a philosophy of avoiding high-risk investments and focusing on undervalued sectors for long-term gains [12]. Group 4: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market has experienced significant price increases, with platinum prices rising over 172% year-to-date, driven by demand from the aerospace sector [24]. - The company had previously identified platinum as a valuable investment but missed the opportunity to invest heavily at lower prices [21][24]. - The company advises against chasing prices in the current market, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment rather than following trends [25].

12月25日，人民币兑美元汇率重新站回"6时代"，这一幕让许多人感到意外。曾经还在7.3左右摇摆的汇率，如今快速反转，盘中一度触及6.9965，创下十四 个月以来新高。有人欢喜，有人忧愁，留学、出游、买进口商品的人拍手称快，而投资美元资产的人却陷入沉默。 汇率的起伏从来都不是简单的数字游戏，它像一张巨网，牵动着每个家庭的消费、投资甚至未来的规划。那么这场升值背后到底藏着什么动因？对我们的股 市、楼市以及老百姓的钱袋子，又会带来怎样的改变？ 人民币重返强势区间，背后是多股力量同向发力。从4月的7.3498低点开始，人民币经历了长达八个月的震荡上行。12月25日终于跨过7.0这一关口，不只是 汇率的反弹，更像是一场信号释放。 美元指数的持续走弱是重要推手之一。自2025年9月以来，美联储连续降息，利率区间降到4.00%-4.25%，美元指数从年初的109一路滑落至100以下，年内累 计跌幅超8%。这种环境下，配置美元资产的吸引力下降，资金开始寻找新的出口。 出口企业年底集中结汇也起到了加速作用。2025年前11个月，中国贸易顺差突破万亿，出口企业手中积累了大量美元。当人民币升值趋势明显，大家纷纷选 择在年底前结汇 ...

2025.12.26 本文字数：2956，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 周楠 封图 |AI生成 今年年中，李励有一次去香港工作的机会。当时，港股IPO市场持续火热，他所在的券商开展内部选 调，拟调配员工赴港做投行业务，并开出了可观的薪酬。但李励考虑一番后最终没有报名，原因 是："我是看生物医药这块的，当时科创板第五套标准重启，手头有一些项目正在推进。" 而一些身处香港的投行人，今年"忙到飞起"。罗恩供职于某华尔街大行，他说，从今年的电话会、客户 需求反馈都能明显感觉到，海外投资者对中国市场的兴趣回暖，一些港股IPO项目里，海外主权基金更 是争抢基石份额。 投行人的直观感受，映射出2025年IPO市场的变化。这一年里，A股股权融资市场回暖、港股IPO持续火 热，包括投行在内的中介机构感受到了业务暖意。 安永大中华区上市服务主管合伙人何兆烽告诉第一财经，今年以来，伴随IPO市场动态发展，中介机构 获得了新的业务增长动力。"内地企业赴港上市意愿持续增强，中介机构从其现有的A股客户群中，拓 展出一定程度的业务增量。"他说。 Wind和交易所数据显示，截至12月25日，年内A股市场迎来111只新股，IPO募资总 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above the 60-day moving average, indicating a continuation of the upward trend in the market. Other major indices such as the ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and CSI 500 have also surpassed the 60-day moving average, showing a clear strengthening of the market. The year-end cautious sentiment is gradually dissipating, and the selling wave under the "locking in profits" sentiment has come to a pause, signaling the beginning of a year-end rally in A-shares [1] Future Outlook - December's uncertainties are largely resolved, setting the stage for the spring market in the coming year. Key uncertainties include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, inflation, employment data releases, and the latest interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan. Current indications from officials of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are neutral to dovish, alleviating the tight liquidity environment in global financial markets at year-end, which had previously constrained the upward movement of A-shares. After a prolonged period of sideways movement since October, the market is now positioned for further upward expansion. A recovery in supply and demand in the mid-to-lower reaches of the manufacturing sector is likely in 2026, which could lead to a significant rebound in the earnings growth of A-share listed companies. The current market fluctuations may be preparing for a new level in the index as 2025 comes to a close, making it an ideal time to prepare for the upcoming spring market [1] Sector Focus - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banks, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals. Consumer sectors may also gain attention due to event-driven factors. In 2026, technology remains the market's main focus, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics after a phase of adjustment. Key points of interest include: 1. The trend in AI hardware remains established, with a continuous increase in the token usage of major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications expected in 2026. 2. The domestic production of robots and their integration into daily life is a confirmed trend for 2026, with robot products expanding from humanoid robots to quadrupedal and functional robots, creating recurring opportunities in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands. 3. The trend towards semiconductor localization continues, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, semiconductor materials, and IC design. 4. The military industry is expected to see a continued recovery in orders in 2026, with many sub-sectors like ground equipment, aviation equipment, and military electronics showing signs of bottoming out in their third-quarter performance. 5. The innovative drug sector is entering a harvest period after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, and an anticipated turning point in fundamentals in 2025, continuing an upward trend into 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Composite Index (Sci-Tech Index) has shown significant growth since its launch, reflecting the overall development of China's technology innovation sector and attracting substantial investment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Performance and Coverage - The Sci-Tech Index has increased by 48.35% since its launch on January 20, 2025, outperforming major market indices [3][8]. - The index currently includes 576 stocks, covering 96% of the Sci-Tech Board companies, with a market capitalization coverage of over 91% [7][9]. - The total market capitalization of the Sci-Tech Board reached 11.14 trillion yuan, with the 576 stocks in the index accounting for 10.18 trillion yuan, or 91.38% of the total [7][9]. Group 2: Industry Composition - The index includes stocks from various sectors, with the largest representation from information technology (54.86%), followed by industrial (23.14%) and healthcare (13.50%) [7][9]. - The top ten stocks in the index represent 27.5% of its total market capitalization, with ten stocks exceeding 100 billion yuan in market value [7][9]. Group 3: Investment Products and Ecosystem - As of December 24, 2025, 45 fund managers have launched 77 index funds related to the Sci-Tech Index, with a total scale of 27 billion yuan [10][11]. - The average return of these products since their launch has been 42%, indicating strong investor interest [11]. - The index has facilitated a one-stop investment tool for investors, enhancing the accessibility of "hard technology" investments [11][12]. Group 4: Future Development and Optimization - Experts suggest that the Sci-Tech Index should continuously optimize its dynamic adjustment and maintenance mechanisms to reflect the latest developments in the hard technology sector [5][13]. - There is a need to enhance the scientific and representative nature of the index, focusing on key indicators such as R&D investment intensity and technology transfer capabilities [12][13]. - The index is expected to play a crucial role in guiding long-term capital allocation and enhancing recognition of China's technological strength among domestic and foreign investors [16][17].