商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 29 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：聚酯加大减产力度，多 PX 空 PTA MEG：单边逢高空，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | 4393 | 6430 | 3530 | | 2025-05-23 | 6652 | 4716 | 4403 | 6450 | 3508 | | 2025-05-22 | 6614 | 4702 | 4411 | 6452 | 3505 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: PX supply is increasing as PX device maintenance ends and device loads rapidly recover, including those of companies like CICC, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Shenghong, and overseas aromatic hydrocarbon devices are also gradually recovering. The domestic PTA device maintenance is ending, the PTA basis is weakening, and the market is under selling pressure. The positive spread has weakened, the PTA monthly spread has decreased, and polyester factories may slightly reduce production [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The port inventory in East China remains at over 700,000 tons with little change. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol devices is rising, but coal prices are also increasing. The profit of coal - based devices is compressed, and mainstream device loads are about to be maintained, leading to a subsequent de - stocking phase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price dropped from 459.7 yuan/barrel on May 26, 2025, to 458.3 yuan/barrel on May 27, 2025, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA market declined slightly. The PTA - SC spread increased by 26.17 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0091. The PTA futures price rose by 16 yuan/ton, the spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee decreased by 30.3 yuan/ton, the on - screen processing fee decreased by 19.3 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. The number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **MEG**: The spot price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The futures price first declined and then rose, and the basis strengthened. The MEG - naphtha spread increased by 0.8 yuan/ton, the MEG domestic price decreased by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 16 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained at 79.18% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate remained at 79.28% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate remained at 51.60% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load increased from 90.75% to 90.81%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 35 yuan/ton, and the filament sales rate increased from 36% to 57%, a 21 - percentage - point increase [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased from - 24 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton, and the staple fiber sales rate increased from 45% to 54%, a 9 - percentage - point increase [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the cash flow decreased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 159 yuan/ton, and the chip sales rate decreased from 65% to 38%, a 27 - percentage - point decrease [2]. Device Maintenance - Due to the recent rapid increase in raw material prices, three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making products and plan further production cuts to be implemented in the short term [2].

化工日报 | 2025-05-28 聚酯负荷下降，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 单边：短期谨慎看多，近期卫星等几套大装置有检修计划，仓单固化下流通性收紧，到港量偏少下短期价格有支 撑 跨期：正套 跨品种：无 风险 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4387元/吨（较前一交易日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.14%），EG华东市场现货价4516 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-29元/吨，幅度-0.64%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）148元/吨（环比+18元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-21美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为216元/吨（环比 +13元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为68.7万吨（环比-5.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.2万吨（环比-5.2万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.6万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数9.2万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划，短期国内EG负荷维持低位；需求端，近端聚酯 负荷有所回落，但整 ...

化工日报 | 2025-05-23 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN259美元/吨(环比变动+1.00美元/吨）。近期近期宏观利好提振，同时多套px装置计划外 损失增加，进一步收紧PX近月供需预期，市场货源偏紧，加之窗口内PX买气活跃，外商挺价积极，进一步支撑价 格上行，PXN低位反弹，当前已脱离低估值水平。后续5月国内PX检修装置将陆续重启，供应预计有所增加，但PTA 新装置投产下PX延续去库。整体来看，短期市场情绪好转和计划外检修增多下PXN反弹明显，关注后续PTA检修 和新装置投产进展，当下PX供需偏紧能否延续。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 127 元/吨(环比变动+1元/吨），PTA现货加工费385元/吨（环比变动+36元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费316元/吨（环比变动-23元/吨），下游聚酯装置持续高开，需求支撑下PTA供需5月延续大幅去库， 5月货偏紧，基差走强，当前PTA价格反弹下装置的检修推迟，后续供应将逐步回归，关注成本支撑。 需求方面，聚酯开工率95.0%（环比+0.8%），在宏观氛围回暖、原料价格反弹下，下游织造、加弹开工快速回升， 中美谈判取得积极进展，降低关税后，纺服订单明显好转， ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 8900.00 | 8900.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 下 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7250.00 | 7250.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6630.00 | 6620.00 | 0.15% | | 2025/5/21 CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 元/吨 | 6000.00 | 5995.00 | 0.08% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/5/21 | 元/吨 | 6050.00 | 6000.00 | 0.83% | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy; no suggestions for cross - period and cross - variety strategies [3] 2. Core View - The polyester production cut intention led to a decline in the EG market. However, in the short term, due to the maintenance plans of several large devices such as Satellite, the tightening of liquidity under the solidification of warehouse receipts, and the low arrival volume, the price has support. In the long - term, under the background of continuous destocking, the liquidity of ethylene glycol may still tighten from June to July. Attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback on the demand side when raw materials rise rapidly [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4413 yuan/ton (down 62 yuan/ton or 1.39% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China EG market was 4510 yuan/ton (down 63 yuan/ton or 1.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China EG (based on the 2509 contract) was 95 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 19 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - based EG was 229 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data was provided in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The near - end polyester load increased at a high level, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease. The US orders for Chinese textile and clothing resumed shipping due to the significant reduction of US tariffs on Chinese textile and clothing [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 74.3 tons (down 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (down 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival volume at the main ports last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week was 10.9 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situation remains unclear and tariff negotiations by the US cause oil price fluctuations. PX supply in Asia tightens due to unplanned losses and scheduled maintenance, while demand exceeds expectations, leading to an expected inventory drawdown in the coming months. PTA prices are expected to follow cost trends with short - term strength as polyester maintains high开工率 and helps with PTA inventory reduction. Polyester bottle - chip market has limited trading volume with prices fluctuating. It is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will all move in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On May 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.69/barrel (+0.32%), Brent crude oil was $65.54/barrel (+0.20%), naphtha spot price was $569.38/ton (+0.71%), isomeric xylene was $709.00/ton (-0.77%), and PX CFR China Main Port was $841.00/ton (+0.44%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4776 yuan/ton (+0.04%), settlement price was 4800 yuan/ton (0.00%), near - month contract closing price was 4970 yuan/ton (+0.49%), settlement price was 4966 yuan/ton (-0.08%), domestic PTA spot price was 4992 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1] - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6752 yuan/ton (+0.12%), settlement price was 6788 yuan/ton (+0.24%), near - month contract closing price was 7020 yuan/ton (+0.26%), settlement price was 7020 yuan/ton (+0.26%), domestic PX spot price was 6874 yuan/ton (-2.04%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 6088 yuan/ton (+0.10%), settlement price was 6124 yuan/ton (+0.13%), near - month contract closing price was 5808 yuan/ton (+0.14%), settlement price was 5808 yuan/ton (+0.14%), East China polyester bottle - chip market price was 6100 yuan/ton (-0.16%), South China was 6200 yuan/ton (0.00%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6665 yuan/ton (+0.23%), polyester chip was 6030 yuan/ton (-0.33%), bottle - grade chip was 6100 yuan/ton (-0.16%) [2] Operating Conditions - PX开工率 was 75.86% (+2.54 percentage points), PTA factory load rate was 74.41% (0.00 percentage points), polyester factory load rate was 91.12% (-0.02 percentage points), bottle - chip factory load rate was 85.13% (0.00 percentage points), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 68.10% (0.00 percentage points) on May 19, 2025 [1] Production and Sales - Polyester filament sales rate was 28.00% (0.00 percentage points), polyester staple fiber sales rate was 46.00% (+10.00 percentage points), and polyester chip sales rate was 39.00% (+2.00 percentage points) on May 19, 2025 [1] Device Information - A 1.2 million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategy - TA2509 contract closed at 4776 yuan/ton (-0.50%) with a trading volume of 1.33 million hands; 2509 contract of PX closed at 6752 yuan/ton (-0.30%) with a trading volume of 30,950 hands; PR 2507 contract closed at 6088 yuan/ton (-0.46%) with a trading volume of 59,000 hands. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will move in a volatile manner [2]

PTA：聚酯减产负反馈下，PTA承压回落 MEG：多重利好兑现，MEG短期有回调预期 正信期货聚酯周报 20250519 作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 数据来源：WIND,隆众 成本端：地缘局势缓和，且OPEC+加速增产，需求欠佳的压力仍存，预计油价短期偏弱运行。PX方面，PX加工 费偏低，浙石化更换催化剂，国内PX负荷再次下滑，PX供需尚可，受成本拖累明显，预计PX短期叫原油表现好。 供应端：PTA：四川能投和新疆中泰有重启计划，预计下周PTA产量提升。乙二醇：国产检修超预期增加，开 工率大幅下滑至61%附近，进口维持低位，国产产量与进口量双降预期。 需求端：下周聚酯负荷存下滑预期，装置检修与重启并存，但新装置负荷提升缓慢，且减产计划较多，如恒 力、金纶、中鲈等，预计下周聚酯产量小幅下滑。原料市场在利好消息的发酵影响下连续上涨，部分厂商担心 未来成本走高，故进行集中原料备货，下游原料补货气氛升温，部分厂商备货周期在6月中旬附近。后市来看 织造行业生产积极性较前期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry is currently in a state of recovery, with the polyester load continuing to increase. The short - term polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong, but there are risks associated with chasing high prices [1][3][4] - The PXN has rebounded significantly due to short - term market sentiment improvement and increased unplanned maintenance, while the PTA market has shown price rebounds and strong demand support [2] - The demand side of the polyester industry has improved, with the polyester start - up rate rising, and downstream orders are expected to improve after the tariff reduction between China and the United States [3] Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is 205 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the PTA spot processing fee is 386 yuan/ton (an increase of 22 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 280 dollars/ton the day before last (a month - on - month increase of 13 dollars/ton) and rose to 282 dollars/ton on Wednesday [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not provided in the content Upstream PX and PTA Start - Up - In May, domestic PX maintenance devices will gradually restart, and supply is expected to increase. The PTA market is in a state of significant inventory reduction [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Not provided in the content Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 94.2% (a month - on - month increase of 0.8%), and the polyester monthly average load in May may increase instead of decrease, exceeding market expectations [3] PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 23 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan/ton) [3] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 356 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 70.37 yuan/ton), and the bottle - chip load remains high and stable [3]

化工日报 | 2025-05-15 市场情绪延续乐观，PXN大幅上涨 市场要闻与数据 5月14日，聚酯产业链商品全线上涨，MEG/PX/PTA/PF/PR主力合约分别上涨3.68%、2.96%、2.87%、3.02%、3.23%。 上涨的主要原因是：一方面近期宏观情绪较好，上个周末中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行的会谈结果超预期，降低关 税对聚酯需求端利好明显，订单和长丝产销好转，同时原油价格反弹持稳，带动下游能化品整体反弹。 另外基本面方面，在聚酯高负荷的支撑下，PTA、MEG等聚酯原料4、5月连续去库，PTA更是连续两个月去库50 万吨附近，PX现货采购也偏紧；下游方面，PF和PR前几日在原料快速上涨中加工费压缩严重，周三PR主流供应商 缩减合约，因此涨幅高于原料。 市场分析 成本端，中美会谈结果超预期，在此宏观利好下，商品氛围整体明显回暖，原油价格大幅上涨，带动下游能化品 整体反弹。 汽油和芳烃方面，汽油裂解近期有所反弹，但季节性表现仍弱于前两年，后续随着汽油需求旺季到来可能会季节 性好转，但整体在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限。芳烃方面，今年的调油需求已不值得过 多的期待。国内外间歇性调油需求 ...