美国国会山关于减税的谈判让交易员担心，总统特朗普的政策可能会让本来就处于历史性高位水平的赤 字问题恶化，使得长端美债承受的压力与日俱增。 北京时间01:17，20年期美债收益率涨约7个基点至5.0035%，30年期美债收益率涨6.8个基点至 4.9997%。 美国20年期国债收益率一度跌穿30年期美债收益率，两者的收益率利差创2021年以来最大。 ...

固收 2025 年地方债投资一本通（下）20250602 摘要 地方政府债整体流动性偏弱，中债流动性指标均值仅为 0.21，远低于国 债和信用债。但由于单支规模差异大，小规模债券流动性更差，择券价 值存在。 地方政府债在生命周期初期流动性较好，中期回落，临近到期略有回升。 短期债券流动性优于中长期，一般债优于专项债，主要因市场偏好和风 险资本占用差异。 新增债与再融资债在流动性上无显著差异，主要受剩余期限影响。换手 率方面，上市初期换手率高，之后衰减，后期略有恢复，总体月换手率 约为 3%-4%。 单支规模大于 200 亿的地方政府债流动性较好，小于 100 亿则较弱。 含提前偿还条款的债券流动性低于不含此类条款的债券，因市场对其需 求较低。 江浙等经济发达地区发行的地方政府债，因其一般公共预算收入排名靠 前，地方法人金融机构持有情况良好，流动性相对较好。 Q&A 地方政府债券的流动性问题如何影响投资者，尤其是基金等交易型机构？ 地方政府债券的流动性问题主要影响投资者在出售债券时需要通过加点方式进 行交易，这增加了交易成本。对于估值体系来说，即使两只地方债剩余期限相 近且估价收益率相同，在实际交易过程中，单支 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content

日本央行：市场流动性相应收紧，尤其是在超长期债券市场，供需失衡情况显著。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased both in the current period and are expected to decline further in the next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds has shortened [4]. - The issuance of new local government bonds has not accelerated in the current period and will remain slow in the next period. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that in 2023 but higher than that in 2024 [4]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in June 2025 is 879.6 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 462.2 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between 10-year local government bonds and treasury bonds widened significantly in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased [4]. - Currently, local government bonds have both allocation and trading values. For institutions such as bank self - operations, insurance, and securities self - operations, local government bonds with a term of 7 years and above, especially 10/15/30 - year bonds, have allocation value; for public funds and other institutions, local government bonds with terms of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - 30 - year bonds have trading value [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period's local government bond issuance volume decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.05.26 - 2025.06.01) was 228.212 billion yuan, compared with 248.522 billion yuan in the previous period. The expected issuance in the next period (2025.06.02 - 2025.06.08) is 109.595 billion yuan. The net financing was 137.132 billion yuan in the current period, compared with 142.589 billion yuan in the previous period, and the expected net financing in the next period is 50.751 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 13.26 years, shorter than 15.13 years in the previous period [4][13]. - As of May 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 43.9% and 34.9% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 45.0% and 35.1%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 40.1%/28.1% and 40.5%/29.6%, and in 2023 it was 49.1%/45.9% and 49.6%/46.7% [4][20]. - As of May 30, 2025, 25 regions have disclosed a planned issuance scale of 879.6 billion yuan for local government bonds in June 2025, including 462.2 billion yuan of new special bonds. The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 480.7 billion yuan and 211.9 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 671.4 billion yuan and 332.7 billion yuan [4]. - As of May 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 242.4 billion yuan (85.1 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1629.1 billion yuan (500 million yuan in the current period), with an issuance progress of 81.5%, and 20 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (Liaoning was added in the current period) [4]. 3.2 This period's 10Y local government bond - treasury bond spread widened significantly, and the weekly turnover rate decreased compared with last week - As of May 30, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.88BP and 23.40BP respectively, widening by 7.96BP and 1.30BP compared with the previous period. They are at the 67.80% and 90.10% historical quantiles since 2023 [4]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.73%, down from 0.85% in the previous period [4]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou are better than the national average [4].

#时事热点我来评# 彻底杀疯了，日本债市崩盘，欧盟喜提关税，特朗普又折腾了一把大的，在国内碰了一鼻子灰，只能再次刀口向外，这背后的事情可不简单。 特朗普急切要求美联储降息，一旦降息，可谓是一箭双雕，美国经济可以打入一针强心剂，对美债来说，也能有效降低利率，大幅节省美国政府的财政开 支，这可是又赚人心又有政绩的大好事，办好了对明年的中期选举都有正面的影响。可惜美联储是一块茅坑里的大石头，又臭又硬，搬都搬不动。 特朗普都不用发号施令，直接更新一个推特对欧盟加税50%，欧洲股市直线跳水。欧盟也很冤啊，我可不是一个国家啊，24个成员国一起开会，想要达成一 致可不是件容易的事，怎么样都会比别人慢啊。更离谱的是，欧盟虽然对美国在货物贸易上顺差了1000亿，可在服务贸易上，美国已经把钱赚回去了，美国 也并不吃亏啊，特朗普拿欧洲撒气，全是情绪，没有一点逻辑，你让欧盟怎么办呢？ 整完欧盟，特朗普又把目光转向了日本。日本一肚子坏水，而且关税谈判的态度最强硬，不给你点颜色瞧瞧，还真不把美国当大哥了。 结果，日本国债市场上演了一场史诗级"大崩盘"。新发行的20年期日本国债，拍卖结果惨不忍睹，投标倍数跌至2.5倍，达到2012年以来最 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the emergence of various acronyms in financial markets that reflect the volatility and uncertainty since Donald Trump's return to the presidency, with strategies linked to his economic and trade policies [1][2][3] - Acronyms like MAGA (Make America Great Again) and YOLO (You Only Live Once) were popular during the initial phase of Trump's presidency, driving significant market movements, but have since lost favor due to concerns over economic policies and market stability [2][3] - The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy has gained traction among traders, betting on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive policies, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [3][4] Group 2 - MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) has resurfaced as European markets outperform U.S. markets, driven by increased interest in European equities and military spending in response to U.S. policies [5][6] - The MAGA variant, "Make America Go Away," reflects a growing sentiment among foreign investors to avoid U.S. markets due to concerns over inflation and the erosion of confidence in U.S. assets [6][7] - FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out) describes the chaotic market conditions resulting from Trump's policy decisions, highlighting the risks of frequent trading in response to market volatility [7]

Primary Market - A total of 18 offshore bonds were issued by Chinese companies this week, including 12 USD bonds and 6 HKD bonds, with issuance sizes of $2.2774 billion and HKD 83.878 billion respectively. No offshore RMB bonds were issued this week [2] - The largest single issuance in the HKD bond market was HKD 1 billion by Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited, with the highest coupon rate of 3.3% issued by Henderson Land Development Company Limited [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was $600 million by Shanghai Construction Group Co., Ltd., with the highest coupon rate of 7% issued by Chengdu Ronghe Jiatai Modern Agriculture Development Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Tianfu Dagan Group Co., Ltd. [2] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds has mostly increased over the past two weeks. As of May 30, the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index rose by 0.42% to 242.22, while the investment-grade USD bond index increased by 0.49% to 234.97. The high-yield USD bond index decreased by 0.06% to 237.09 [3] - The real estate USD bond index fell by 0.33% to 180.27, while the city investment bond index rose by 0.11% to 148.72, and the financial bond index increased by 0.12% to 282.57 [3] Price Movements - The largest weekly price increase in offshore Chinese bonds was seen in the USD bond issued by Zhengrong Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. (ZHPRHK 9.15% 5/6/23), which rose by 148.37% to 0.75 [4] - The largest weekly price decrease was also in a USD bond issued by Zhengrong Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. (ZHPRHK 8.7% 8/3/22), which fell by 63.33% to 0.41 [6] Credit Rating Adjustments - On May 27, the credit rating of Jinneng Technology Co., Ltd. was downgraded to "AA-" with a stable outlook by United Ratings [9] - On May 27, Suqian Canal Port Development Group Co., Ltd. had its "BBB-" international long-term issuer rating withdrawn for commercial reasons by United International [9] - On May 29, the credit rating of Taikang Insurance Group Co., Ltd. was confirmed at "A-" with a stable outlook by Fitch, but subsequently withdrawn for commercial reasons [9] Default and Extension - Pengbo Telecom Media announced that the principal repayment date for the "18 Pengbo Bond" has been adjusted from May 25, 2025, to August 25, 2025, with a full principal repayment scheduled for that date [10] Domestic News - In April 2025, the Ministry of Finance reported that a total of CNY 693.3 billion in local government bonds were issued, including CNY 2.534 billion in new bonds [12] - The China Securities Investment Fund Association reported that 914.59 billion in asset-backed special plans were newly filed in April, with the top three asset types being financing lease receivables, micro-loan receivables, and accounts receivable [13] Offshore Debt Alerts - Zhengrong Real Estate announced that "H20 Zhengrong 3" will resume trading on June 3, 2025 [17] - CIFI Group announced that seven company bonds will be suspended from trading starting June 3, 2025, to ensure fair information disclosure and protect bond investors [19] - Vanke's subsidiary applied for a loan of up to HKD 6.872 billion from an overseas bank, with a term of up to two years [20] - Hailong Holdings received a winding-up petition involving $379.135 million in unpaid notes [21]

周五（5月30日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌0.8个基点，报2.5%，5月份累计上涨5.6个基 点，5月14日曾涨至2.701%。 两年期德债收益率涨0.7个基点，报1.776%，5月份累涨9.0个基点，5月14日曾达到1.952%；30年期德债 收益率累涨9.8个基点，报2.980%。 2/10年期德债收益率利差跌1.396个基点，报+72.218个基点，5月份累跌3.259个基点。 法国10年期国债收益率累跌0.7个基点，报3.160%，整体呈现出A形冲高回落，5月14日达到3.381%。 希腊10年期国债收益率累跌4.4个基点，报3.253%。 意大利10年期国债收益率累跌8.5个基点，报3.480%，5月14日曾达到3.714%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率累跌2.1个基点，报3.092%。 ...

0:00 上一期，我们聊了利率债ETF，它因为"稳"出圈，是不少投资者心头好的低风险选项。 但如果你愿意承担一点点风险，来博取更高一点的回报，那今天要介绍的信用债ETF，也许就能让你眼 前一亮！ 信用债ETF是什么？ 通俗讲，信用债ETF就是跟踪一篮子"信用债"的ETF产品。也就是说，你买了一只信用债ETF，相当于 持有了多种信用债。 目前，它的底层信用债资产主要包括：短融、公司债、企业债和城投债： 该指数的样本选取的是银行间市场剩余期限1个月以上的短期融资券，流动性好，风险相对较低。 （截止日期：4月3日；来源：Wind金融终端） 底层资产是城投债的产品有1只，规模超150亿元，跟踪上证城投债指数。 一句话总结，信用债不像国债那样有"国家兜底"，它们靠的是发行方自身的信用来融资。 信用等级越高，风险越低，但收益通常也会比利率债更有吸引力一些。 目前全市场共有11只信用债ETF，总规模超过821亿元，拆开来看：底层资产是短融的产品有1只，规模 超254亿元，跟踪中证短融指数。 （截止日期：4月2日；来源：Wind金融终端） （截止日期：4月2日；来源：Wind金融终端） 该指数的样本选取的是在上海证券交易所上 ...