Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen is set to accelerate the implementation of 24 special measures to relax market access, as outlined in the recently issued "Opinions" by the central government, marking a significant reform initiative for the city as it approaches its 45th anniversary as an economic special zone [1][2]. Group 1: Key Reform Measures - The focus of the reforms includes the integration of education, technology, and talent systems to enhance innovation and attract diverse talent without geographical or background restrictions [2][3]. - Shenzhen aims to deepen the integration of financial, technological, and data resources to support high-quality development of the real economy, with specific initiatives to attract insurance funds for investment in technology innovation [2][3]. - The city will enhance its openness by promoting service trade and establishing a competitive edge in various sectors such as gaming, software outsourcing, and international logistics [2][3]. Group 2: Market Access and Regulatory Framework - Shenzhen will further relax market access by exploring new regulatory mechanisms in fields like artificial intelligence and smart connected vehicles, and will implement a "sandbox regulatory" approach in the medical device sector [4][5]. - The city plans to facilitate resource acquisition by breaking down departmental barriers and expanding public data resource availability, particularly in healthcare and finance [5][6]. - Shenzhen will align with international high-standard trade rules, using the Qianhai-Shekou Free Trade Zone as a testing ground for these standards [5][6]. Group 3: Business Environment Optimization - The city aims to create a first-class business environment characterized by efficient administrative processes, robust legal frameworks, and a supportive industrial ecosystem [6]. - Shenzhen has been recognized for its favorable business environment, with a significant number of operating entities, reflecting its status as a leading city for entrepreneurship in China [6].

Core Insights - The event hosted by the World Association of Major Cities in Guangzhou focused on urban sustainability, digital transformation, and inclusive development, with participation from 19 cities and 5 international organizations [1] - Moscow's economy is projected to grow nearly 8% in 2023 and at least 5% in 2024, driven by a diversified economic structure and significant infrastructure investments [2] - The city is addressing labor shortages through education and training initiatives, emphasizing lifelong learning and productivity improvements [3][4] Economic Growth and Investment - Moscow's economic resilience is attributed to its diverse industries, including finance, IT, construction, and services, which help maintain growth amid global uncertainties [2] - Continuous investment in major infrastructure projects, particularly in transportation, is creating new economic hubs and attracting private investment [2] - The city has established a supportive environment for high-potential industries, including technology parks and infrastructure to foster innovation [2] Labor Market and Education - The demand for workers in Moscow has surged due to rapid economic growth, leading to a historically low unemployment rate [3] - The city is focusing on enhancing educational programs to ensure that graduates possess relevant skills and a mindset for continuous learning [3][4] - Initiatives are in place to improve labor productivity by helping businesses optimize operations and better utilize technology [3][4] Sports Events and Economic Impact - Hosting large sports events is viewed as a strategic move for cities, providing long-term infrastructure benefits and economic opportunities [6] - Major events attract tourists, boosting sectors such as hospitality, retail, and dining, while creating opportunities for small and medium enterprises [6][7] - Tourism currently accounts for approximately 4% of Moscow's economy, driven by a vibrant calendar of events and cultural activities [7]

Economic Development - The focus is on enhancing economic quality and establishing a smart management system, with a weekly and monthly monitoring mechanism for key economic indicators [3] - A new model for enterprise cultivation has been introduced, aiming to build a tiered system of "seed enterprises - quasi-large enterprises - large enterprises," with a goal of reserving four industrial enterprises for statistical inclusion [3][4] - The street has successfully attracted 180 young talents and established a national-level postdoctoral research workstation, enhancing its talent pool [3] Industrial Upgrading - The goal is to achieve a "fivefold increase" in industrial economy and fixed asset investment, with a significant growth in industrial output value and steady progress in fixed asset investment [4][5] - A three-year plan is in place to cultivate high-tech enterprises, aiming for 100% coverage of high-tech enterprises among large-scale industrial companies within three years [5] Governance and Community Services - The implementation of a digital governance model has led to a significant reduction in processing times for 45 high-frequency public services, achieving a 60% reduction in approval times [6] - The establishment of a "red property" governance model has effectively addressed community issues, resulting in an 18.95% decrease in property-related complaints [6] Rural Revitalization - The development of the Xiaoqin Industrial Park has attracted 16 processing households, with plans for full production by the second quarter of this year [7] - The integration of cold chain logistics is expected to significantly enhance employment opportunities and transaction volumes [7] Urban Development - Urban renewal and expansion projects are progressing, with two key areas undergoing complete renovation and infrastructure upgrades [8] - The city is focusing on integrating industrial and urban development to achieve higher levels of urban quality [8] Safety and Environmental Protection - A comprehensive protection system for arable land has been established, utilizing drones for monitoring and implementing a dual prevention mechanism [9] - Safety production measures have been enhanced through digital platforms, conducting thorough inspections across various sectors [9][10] Community Engagement - The establishment of a community service network has led to the successful organization of numerous activities benefiting over 23,000 participants [6][7] - The "Snow Bright Project" has improved community safety through the installation of additional surveillance systems and crime prevention initiatives [10]

第一财经研究院发布的最新一期"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.50，回归50荣枯线以上。经济 学家们认为，中美贸易谈判出现积极信号，短期内国内经济景气度回暖。接下来应进一步提振信心、扩 大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转型升级的动力。以政策工具箱的灵活性来对冲不 确定性，以产业链供应链的韧性来抵御外部的冲击。 工业生产景气度保持平稳 经济学家们认为，接下来应进一步提振信心、扩大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转 型升级的动力。 尽管面临外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，但随着稳经济、稳就业政策措施加快落地 见效，中国主要经济指标有望保持平稳运行。 国家统计局将于6月16日发布5月份宏观经济数据。机构分析，工业、消费、投资等多项经济指标亮点频 现，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提升。 中信证券分析，2024年同期基数走高，或对5月社会消费品零售总额同比增速构成一定拖累。分商品 看，在"国补"和"618"大促的带动下，家电、通讯器材类商品消费或延续较好表现。预计5月社零同比或 增长4.4%左右。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，5月份，节日需求释放带动相关服务业表 ...

证券研究报告 宽观 5 月全球 PMI:关税暂缓推动订单反 华泰研究 2025年6月12日|中国内地 动态点评 图说全球 PMI | 2025年5月 本系列为华泰宏观出品、全球 PMI月度追踪系列的第二十三期。5月全球制 造业 PMI 回落,但关税降级推动大部分国家制造业 PMI 改善,其中,欧元 区、东盟、墨西哥等国家和地区表现较好;制造业新订单和新出口订单或受 益于抢出口大多出现回升;价格指标维持高位,库存稳步上行。5月全球服 务业 PMI 有所回升,但主要受美国提振,欧日均有所回落。 5 月全球 PMI 走势概述:服务业景气度上行带动 5 月全球综合 PMI 上行 0.4pp 至 51.2。制造业 PMI:大部分国家制造业 PMI 均有所改善:美国 Markit 和 ISM 制造业 PM 走势分化,后者有所回落:欧元区则延续年初以来回升 的趋势;从绝对水平看,印度>美国 Markit>拉美>俄罗斯>欧元区=日本>东 盟>中国台湾地区>英国。服务业 PMI:全球服务业 PMI 景气度回升,主要 由美国 Markit 服务业 PMI 上行带动,欧元区和日本均走弱。订单:全球制 造业新订单延续下行,但出口新订 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets have rebounded since April, but the sustainability of this upward trend in the second half of the year will depend on the progress of tariff and policy issues [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to suppress risk appetite, particularly as the deadline for the U.S. to delay tariff increases approaches in early July [1] - The final outcome of tariffs will depend on negotiation progress, with expectations that tariff levels may remain above pre-trade dispute levels but are unlikely to return to peak levels [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock valuations remain reasonable, and corporate earnings are expected to remain resilient, but high market volatility persists due to unpredictable negotiation styles from U.S. President Trump [2] - European and Chinese markets currently present more attractive valuations, with potential capital inflows driven by increased fiscal and defense spending in Europe and continued policy easing in China [2] - Key themes for the U.S. stock market in the second half include artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and selected small-cap stocks benefiting from corporate tax cuts [2] Group 3 - The outlook for global government bonds, investment-grade credit, infrastructure, private credit, and real estate remains positive amid ongoing uncertainty [3] - European and UK markets are viewed as more attractive compared to the U.S., with the Chinese stock market expected to benefit from continued accommodative policies [3]

证券研究报告 宏观 5 月全球 PMI：关税暂缓推动订单反弹 +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 陈玮 SAC No. S0570524030003 SFC No. BVH374 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 12 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 研究员 胡李鹏，PhD SAC No. S0570525010001 SFC No. BWA860 hulipeng@htsc.com 联系人 赵文瑄 SAC No. S0570124030017 zhaowenxuan@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 5 月全球 PMI 走势概述：服务业景气度上行带动 5 月全球综合 PMI 上行 0.4pp 至 51.2。制造业 PMI：大部分国家制造业 PMI 均有所改善；美国 Markit 和 ISM 制造业 PMI 走势分化，后者有所回落；欧元区则延续年初以来回升 的趋势；从绝对水平看，印度>美国 Markit>拉美>俄罗斯>欧元区=日本>东 盟>中国台湾地区>英国。服务业 PMI：全球服务业 PMI 景气度回升，主要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Government has introduced a set of fiscal policies aimed at supporting the high-quality development of the private economy, which constitutes 99% of the market entities in the province [1]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The new policies include 10 areas and 50 specific measures focused on supporting innovation, facilitating transformation, broadening financing channels, creating a fair procurement environment, and enhancing policy accessibility for private enterprises [1]. - Key characteristics of the policies include systematic integration, precise measures, financial collaboration, and stabilizing expectations [1]. Group 2: Financial Support Measures - Shandong will provide up to 5 million yuan in subsidies for R&D investments and up to 100 million yuan annually for companies completing clinical trials for innovative drugs [2]. - The province plans to support at least 200 key service projects annually, with a minimum of 50% participation from private enterprises [2]. - For major industrial technology transformation projects, the maximum interest subsidy from the provincial government will be 20 million yuan [2]. Group 3: Financing and Investment Strategies - The policies aim to broaden investment channels by leveraging fiscal funds to attract more social capital, particularly for seed and early-stage private enterprises [2]. - Financing enhancement measures include supply chain financing rewards and government procurement loans to facilitate credit access for small and micro enterprises [3]. - Cost reduction strategies involve interest subsidies for various loans, including technology transformation and entrepreneurial guarantee loans, as well as insurance compensation policies for innovative equipment and materials [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong government has introduced a comprehensive set of 50 targeted policies to support the high-quality development of the private economy, with an expected direct fiscal investment of over 36 billion yuan and the potential to drive over 2 trillion yuan in financial and social investments over the next three years [2][4]. Group 1: Support for Innovation and Development - The policies include 17 measures focused on innovation, such as supporting major technological innovation projects, increasing R&D investment, and protecting intellectual property rights [2]. - Financial support for R&D can reach up to 5 million yuan per enterprise, and companies completing clinical trials for innovative drugs can receive up to 100 million yuan annually [2]. Group 2: Transformation and Upgrading of Private Enterprises - The policies aim to facilitate industrial upgrades through measures like special loan interest subsidies and equipment update subsidies, as well as encouraging participation in rural revitalization [3]. - Support for foreign trade enterprises includes financing services and assistance in participating in overseas exhibitions to enhance competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Financing Channels for Private Enterprises - The policies include measures to strengthen financing supply through various means such as guiding funds, supply chain finance, and government procurement contract financing [3]. - There are also measures to prevent overdue payments to private enterprises, ensuring fair payment terms and conditions [3]. Group 4: Fair Competition in Government Procurement - The policies aim to eliminate barriers to government procurement for private enterprises, including regular checks to remove unfair competition practices and expanding the market share for small and medium-sized enterprises [4]. Group 5: Policy Accessibility and Efficiency - The government plans to enhance the accessibility and efficiency of policies through reforms and recognition programs, ensuring that enterprises can benefit from fiscal policies effectively [4]. - The Shandong government will prioritize the allocation of fiscal resources to support the implementation of these policies, utilizing various financial instruments to create a supportive environment for the private economy [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is undergoing a profound structural change driven by the Trump administration's strict immigration policies, with May's non-farm payrolls dropping by 696,000, the largest monthly decline since the onset of the pandemic in 2020 [1][3] - The balance of supply and demand in the labor market is being artificially disrupted, leading to a significant reduction in labor supply, particularly affecting labor-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, and services [3] - Despite a historically low unemployment rate of 4.2%, only 139,000 new jobs were added in May, indicating a shrinking labor supply rather than an increase in job opportunities [3] Group 2 - The artificial labor shortage is causing multiple economic impacts, including rising wage levels that may exacerbate inflationary pressures, and a long-term reduction in the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that average monthly job growth may remain at 170,000 in 2024 but decline to 90,000 by the end of 2025 and further to 80,000 in 2026, with the "breakeven job growth" needed to maintain stable unemployment potentially dropping to as low as 50,000 per month [3][4] - The structural changes in the labor market present unprecedented policy dilemmas for the Federal Reserve, as tight labor conditions and wage pressures necessitate a more hawkish monetary policy, while the ongoing reduction in economic growth potential requires policy flexibility [4] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies complicates economic forecasts, with the Congressional Budget Office projecting net immigration numbers to fall to 2 million and 1.5 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, significantly lower than the 3.3 million in 2023 [4] - This uncertainty not only affects the labor market but also has broader implications for consumption and investment, potentially impacting the overall economy [4] - Market participants should be cautious of the chain reactions stemming from these policy distortions, as short-term labor shortages may support a stronger dollar, while long-term growth potential reductions could lead to downward pressure on the dollar [4]