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中央财办有关负责同志详解中央经济工作会议精神
中国基金报· 2025-12-16 13:22
来源:新华社 在"十四五"即将收官、"十五五"新程待启的关键时点,2025年12月10日至11日召开的中央 经济工作会议备受瞩目。 当前经济形势怎么看?"十五五"新开局重点任务如何推进?聚焦舆论关注的热点问题,中央 财办有关负责同志会后第一时间接受中央主要媒体采访,深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。 问:2025年我国交出怎样的经济"成绩单"?明年经济形势如何? 答: 中央经济工作会议对今年经济工作进行全面总结,指出2025年是很不平凡的一年,我国 经济顶压前行、向新向优发展,展现强大韧性和活力。 一是运行总体平稳、稳中有进。 主要经济指标符合预期,预计全年经济增长5%左右、继续位 居世界主要经济体前列,经济总量有望达到140万亿元左右。就业总体稳定,外贸较快增长、 出口多元化成效明显。 二是现代化产业体系建设持续推进。 新质生产力稳步发展,科技创新成果丰硕,人工智能、 生物医药、机器人等研发应用走在全球前列。 三是改革开放迈出新步伐。 全国统一大市场建设向纵深推进,综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显 现,资本市场较为活跃,自主开放有序推进。 四是重点领域风险化解取得积极进展。 地方政府隐性债务有序置换,"保交房"任务 ...
【广发宏观贺骁束】12月经济初窥
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-12-16 12:54
Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants in December decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, compared to a 7.2% decline in November, indicating a continuation of weak demand in both power and non-power sectors [1][6] - The industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with the operating rate of steel blast furnaces down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.1 percentage points [7][8] - Key steel mills reported a 1.4% month-on-month decline in crude steel production, with a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, while rebar production fell by 10.5% month-on-month and 16.2% year-on-year [9] Group 2: Construction and Material Supply - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved marginally, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in funding for both non-residential and residential construction [11] - The asphalt production rate remained stable month-on-month but decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating fluctuations in construction activity [11][12] - The national cement dispatch rate recorded a 30.09% rate, down 3.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a slowdown in construction material supply [12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales Trends - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 1.4% year-on-year, while domestic flight operations rose by 1.3%, suggesting a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales remained weak, with a 32.9% year-on-year decline in average daily transactions of commercial housing in major cities during the first half of December [16] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles saw a significant drop of 32% year-on-year, with wholesale sales down by 40%, indicating a contraction in consumer spending in the automotive sector [17] Group 4: Manufacturing and Export Activity - The container throughput at domestic ports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, although this growth rate was lower than the 10.2% recorded in November, reflecting ongoing resilience in trade [21] - The Business Price Index (BPI) showed signs of recovery, with a 0.8% increase compared to the end of November, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [24] - The production of household appliances continued to decline, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly, reflecting reduced consumer demand [18][19]
珠光控股(01176.HK):委任立信德豪为核数师
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-16 12:36
格隆汇12月16日丨珠光控股(01176.HK)宣布,经董事会审核委员会推荐,董事会已议决委任香港立信德 豪会计师事务所有限公司(「立信德豪」)为公司新任核数师,自2025年12月16日起生效,以填补因安永 辞任而产生之临时空缺。立信德豪将任职至公司下届股东周年大会结束为止。 ...
ST复华:本次上科科技被轮候冻结股份总计6920万股
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-16 12:33
每经头条(nbdtoutiao)——中标企业频频弃标 大型医疗设备采购有何难言之隐? 每经AI快讯,ST复华(SH 600624,收盘价:5.66元)12月16日晚间发布公告称,上海上科科技投资有 限公司(以下简称"上科科技")为上海复旦复华科技股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")持股5%以上非 控股股东。截至公告披露日,上科科技持有公司股份共计69,206,536股,占公司总股本的10.1872%,其 中质押的公司股份数量为69,202,880股,占其所持公司股份总数的99.9947%,占公司总股本的 10.1867%。本次上科科技被轮候冻结股份总计69,206,536股,占其所持公司股份的100%。 (记者 曾健辉) 2024年1至12月份,ST复华的营业收入构成为:工业占比48.28%,软件开发占比42.88%,房地产业占比 6.57%,其他业务占比2.27%。 截至发稿,ST复华市值为38亿元。 ...
世行预测柬埔寨2025年经济增长率将放缓至4.8%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-16 12:31
根据世界银行最新发布《2025年12月柬埔寨经济展望》报告,预计柬埔寨2025年经济增长率将放缓至 4.8%,低于2024年的6%。 报告指出,房地产行业疲软、柬泰边境争端及美国关税上调等多重内外冲击,对该国经济活动造成显著 压力。具体来看,房地产市场低迷持续抑制国内需求与建筑行业活力;柬泰边境紧张局势不仅扰乱了双 边贸易往来,还对劳动力市场与旅游业造成连锁冲击;此外,美国自2025年8月1日起对柬埔寨所有进口 商品加征19%关税,进一步加剧了外部环境的不确定性。 世界银行驻柬埔寨国家经理Tania Mayer表示,柬埔寨正处于应对内外双重冲击的关键挑战期,强有力 的缓冲机制与针对性改革将是抵御经济压力的核心支撑。她强调,保障返乡人员等弱势家庭的基本生活 需求仍需重点关注,同时需通过改善营商环境、扶持非正规企业发展、简化正规化流程等举措,释放经 济增长潜力,营造公平竞争市场环境,进而创造更高质量的就业机会。报告显示,尽管柬埔寨经济增长 面临压力,但仍然展现出一定韧性,该国国际储备状况保持健康,能够支付约7.5个月的进口需求,公 共债务水平较低,约占国内生产总值(GDP)的26%,债务可持续性良好,2025年平 ...
宏观经济专题:黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-12-16 12:15
Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement dispatch, and grinding mills at historical lows[1] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, particularly in steel and automotive[1] - Demand for construction materials, automobiles, and home appliances is weak, with rebar and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached or are approaching historical highs, driven by expanding dollar liquidity and industrial activity[2] - The recent two weeks saw fluctuations in oil prices, while copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends[2] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some materials like cement and asphalt declining in price[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in 30 major cities have decreased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 21% and 35% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[4] Export and Liquidity - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 2.1% year-on-year for the first two weeks of December[5] - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 1.4134 trillion yuan[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[6]
华侨城A(000069.SZ):华侨城集团累计增持0.24%股份
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-16 12:09
格隆汇12月16日丨华侨城A(000069.SZ)公布,近日,公司收到控股股东华侨城集团出具的《关于增持华 侨城A股份计划的告知函》,及其一致行动人深圳华侨城资本投资管理有限公司(简称"华侨城资本公 司")签署的《简式权益变动报告书》,华侨城集团于2025年7月15日至2025年12月16日期间,通过深圳 证券交易所交易系统集中竞价交易的方式累计增持公司股份19,572,900股,占公司总股本的0.24%,增 持金额(不含交易费用)合计人民币50,174,174元。本次增持后,公司控股股东及其一致行动人共计持 有公司股份比例由49.76%变动至50.00%,变动触及5%的整数倍。 ...
11月经济数据点评:结构延续分化,内需有待加力
Mai Gao Zheng Quan· 2025-12-16 12:00
Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value of large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The mining industry recorded a growth of 6.3%, outperforming manufacturing at 4.6% and water, electricity, and gas at 4.3%, indicating ongoing reliance on traditional resource sectors[12] - The sales rate of industrial products fell to 96.5%, reflecting a misalignment between production expansion and end demand[13] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.6 percentage points from October, the lowest monthly growth since December 2022[2] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year from January to November, indicating a shift towards service-oriented consumption[16] - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 5.7%, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, highlighting the impact of digital consumption trends[17] Investment - From January to November 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6%, with a widening decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous period[5] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 15.9%, with housing sales area and sales amount both decreasing by 7.8% and 11.1% respectively, continuing a negative growth trend for 43 months[25] - Manufacturing investment fell by 0.8 percentage points to 1.9%, with a monthly decline of 4.5%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector[24] Economic Outlook - The economic data for November indicates that insufficient effective demand remains the primary contradiction in the economy, opening up further space for policy support[27] - Future policies to boost domestic demand are expected to focus on enhancing employment, increasing residents' income, and improving social security[28]
——11月经济数据点评:需求延续弱势,生产保持韧性
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-16 11:28
Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in demand, particularly in consumer spending, which has been significantly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies for trade-ins [2][3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for January to November 2025 is reported at 4.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with automobile sales showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.0% [3][22] - Industrial value-added growth for November 2025 is at 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from October, indicating a divergence between traditional industries related to real estate and high-tech sectors [3][4] Group 2 - The report notes a rebound in inflation, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a 0.5 percentage point rise [3][5] - Fixed asset investment shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% for November, with real estate investment down 15.9% and infrastructure investment at 0.13% [3][7] - The report indicates that the overall economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3][23]
11月经济数据点评:需求延续弱势,生产保持韧性
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-16 10:50
Group 1 - The report highlights a continued weakness in consumer demand, particularly impacted by a decline in automobile sales and the reduction of government subsidies, indicating that sustained policy support is necessary to boost consumer spending [3] - Industrial value-added growth remains resilient at 6.0% year-on-year, although there is a clear divide between traditional industries, such as real estate, which are contracting, and high-tech industries that are supporting growth [3][4] - Inflation is showing signs of recovery, primarily driven by rising food prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 0.7% year-on-year, marking the first positive change in food prices this year [3][5] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment has seen a further decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6% in November, driven by downturns in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [3][7] - The report notes that the economic fundamentals are weakening, with investment growth and consumer spending both declining, while inflation recovery remains uncertain [3] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with cumulative sales area down 11.1% year-on-year, indicating a persistent contraction since the second quarter of this year [3][10]