报告导读： 2025 年 7 月十大转债组合聚焦政策支持和产业创新共同推动的高成长方向， 包括科技成长、新消费成长、周期成长和金融创新。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：成长为矛，业绩为锚——2025年7月转债策略展望 报告日期：2025.07.01 报告作者： 顾一格 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880522120006 2025 年 7 月十大转债组合聚焦政策支持和产业创新共同推动的高成长方向， 包括：（ 1 ）以业绩确定 性较强的算力硬件、受益于国产替代加速的半导体产业链和国内外需求共振的军工为代表的科技成长板 块；（ 2 ）提振消费的新引擎、新消费的典型代表——情绪消费；（ 3 ）兼具周期性与成长性，短期有 涨价催化的方向；（ 4 ）无风险利率下降叠加稳定币创新推动的金融板块。 跟踪评级披露完毕，转债评级下调对低价转债的制约解除，银行转债加速退出，高 YTM 和双低转债有望 成为底仓替代。 6 月评级下调影响可控，反映出市场对弱资质转债的评级下调已有心理准备，且在权益市 场相对强势环境下，对信用风险并不担忧。随着评级披露完毕，低价转债有望迎来反弹。银行转债加速退 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The external trade environment is highly uncertain, and traditional domestic consumption is relatively weak, making it difficult to show an overall upward trend [1] - The investment logic suggests a bottom-up approach to select leading companies with differentiated competitive advantages and strong earnings certainty [1] Group 2: New Consumption Sectors - The overall consumption is under pressure, but some sub-sectors show high growth potential; companies are adapting to channel changes and industry opportunities [2] - In the personal care sector, domestic brands are leveraging e-commerce and product upgrades to gain market share, with recommendations for companies like Baiya Co. and Haoyue Care [2] - The AI glasses sector is expected to see accelerated product launches by 2025, with Mingyue Lens recommended for its unique advantages [2] - The emotional consumption sector is gaining traction, with recommendations for companies like Chenguang Co. that are investing in IP resources [2] Group 3: Traditional Consumption Sectors - The home and paper industries face pressure from the overall consumption environment; investment points include the ability of quality stocks to leverage policy support and operational advantages [4] - In the home sector, the expansion of subsidy categories and amounts in 2025 presents opportunities for leading companies like Oppein and Sophia [4] - The paper industry is closely tied to economic cycles, with recommendations for Sun Paper due to its cost control capabilities and upcoming production [4] Group 4: Export Sector - Due to high uncertainty regarding tariffs, companies with established overseas production capabilities are at an advantage; some export sectors are highly dependent on U.S. and Vietnamese production [5] - Companies with lower exposure to U.S. exports are considered safer, while certain sub-sectors still show high growth potential due to rigid demand and changing consumption habits [5] - Recommended companies in the export sector include Jiayi Co., Gongchuang Turf, and Deou Technology [5]

一段时间以来,随着社会节奏的加快和生活压力的增大,以解压、治愈、陪伴为核心的情绪消费逐渐成为 年轻群体的新宠。从随身携带的"捏捏乐"到虚拟世界的AI温情陪伴,从"放青松"盆栽到动漫展上的"谷 子",这些看似实用性不强的商品,却因承载着情感价值成为消费市场的新热点。根据《情绪消费崛 起:2025年市场格局与未来走向》报告,全球疗愈经济2025年规模预计达7万亿美元,中国情绪消费市场规 模也将突破2万亿元,情绪经济正从边缘走向主流。 情绪消费的火爆,折射出消费需求的深刻变革。当物质产品日益丰富,消费者开始追求更高层次的情感需 求。年轻人面临工作、学习等多重压力,需要一种方式来释放焦虑、获得陪伴。这种情感缺口的填补,正 是情绪消费的核心。 情绪经济的火爆,反映了消费需求的多样化和层次化。当"治愈刚需"与消费市场相遇,催生的不仅是新的 商业机会,更是对消费者情感需求的关注和满足。在这个物质丰富的时代,情绪价值成为了新的消费增长 点。期待随着市场的不断规范和发展,情绪经济能为消费者带来更多有温度的产品和服务,构建起更加健 康、积极的情感服务生态。 （大众新闻·风口财经评论员 耿伟杰） 编辑：刘建 技术的发展为情绪经济的 ...