Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]

2025年09月24日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：贵金属价格继续走高，纽约金突破 3800 美元/盎司，市场资金继续做多。 | | 金 | 基本面：美联储主席鲍威尔公开讲话称美股估值相当高，重申面临通胀上升与就业下滑的双重挑战，未明确 | | 属 | 表态 10 月是否降息；美联储官员对于降息依旧存在分歧，联储执委鲍曼警告已"落后于形势"，地区联储主 | | | 席古尔斯比呼吁谨慎行事；美国 9 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值 52，连续第二个月扩张，预期 52.2，8 月前值 | | | 53，去年同期为 47.3。其中，就业指数从 8 月的 53.1 降至 52.6；新订单指数环比下降。美国 9 月 Markit 服 | | | 务业 PMI 初值 53.9，为 2025 年 6 月以来的最低值，预期 54，8 月前值 54.5，去年同期为 55.2。其中，就业 | | | 指数从 8 月份的 52 降至 51.6，为 2025 年 4 月以来的最低值；物价指数较上月下降，为 2025 年 4 月以来的 | ...

本周烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,截至本周五收盘,主力合约烧碱 2601 (SH101) 周度上涨 81 元/吨,收盘至 2641 元/吨,涨幅为 3.16%，最高价 2657 元/吨，最低价 2548 元/吨，持仓 11.4 万手, 较上周减少 4712 手。成交量较上周增加 31.6 万手至 185.2 万手。 图 1:烧碱主连日 K 线 1.2 品种行情 成文日期：20250921 报告周期:周度 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货周报： 延续下行 核心观点： 当周 (20250915-0919) 烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,周涨幅 3.16%。下周随着检修装置逐渐恢复,预计开工率将有所上升。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 从烧碱期货周度行情来看,除近月 SH510 合约下跌外,其他合 约整体上行，主力合约 SH601 持仓量有所减少。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 表 1: 烧碱期货行情表(20250915-20250919) | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is expected to face increasing supply pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain weak, with Brent crude oil expected to trade in the range of $65 - $67 per barrel [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be in a state of weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, and the valuation is relatively high [4][5][6]. - The fuel oil market, both high - sulfur and low - sulfur, is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil is affected by high inventories, and low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and lack of demand drivers [6][8][9]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to oscillate. Their prices are greatly influenced by oil prices and the macro - economic situation, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [10][12][13]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to oscillate in the short term due to the balance between supply reduction and demand increase [13][15]. - The short - fiber market is expected to oscillate, and its processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with prices following raw material trends [14][15][17]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to oscillate. The market supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, with processing fees expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand lacks support. Styrene may face inventory accumulation pressure [19][20][22]. - The propylene market is expected to be in a state of relaxation, with increasing supply and poor downstream product profits [24][25]. - The PVC market is expected to be weak in the medium term, facing new production capacity pressure and weak demand, but with short - term observation recommended [26][27]. - The caustic soda market is expected to improve in the medium term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [28][29]. - The plastic PP market is expected to be weak in the short term and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [30][31]. - The log market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with a recommendation to observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout [32][33]. - The offset - printing paper market has a pattern of oversupply, and it is recommended to short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price [33][34]. - The pulp market has a certain degree of support below, but the high port inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space. It is recommended to try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract [34][35][37]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and consider taking profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract [37][38][39]. - The butadiene rubber market: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract [40][41][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - **Crude Oil**: WTI2510 contract closed at $62.68, down $0.89 per barrel (-1.40%); Brent2511 contract closed at $66.68, down $0.76 per barrel (-1.13%); SC2511 contract closed at 491.2 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan, and dropped 7.6 yuan to 483.6 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Asphalt**: BU2511 closed at 3421 points (+0.00%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3372 points (-0.06%) at night [4]. - **Fuel Oil**: FU01 contract closed at 2782 (-1.28%) at night; LU11 closed at 3370 (-1.03%) at night [6]. - **PX & PTA**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6594 (-1.35%) during the day and 6600 (+0.09%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4604 (-1.33%) during the day and 4602 (-0.04%) at night [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4257 (-0.26%) during the day and 4249 (-0.19%) at night [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6284 (-0.95%) during the day and 6288 (+0.06%) at night [14]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5762 (-0.93%) during the day and 5758 (-0.07%) at night [17]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5966 (-0.55%) during the day and 5954 (-0.2%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6992 (-1.16%) during the day and 6971 (-0.3%) at night [19]. - **Propylene**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6388 (-0.56%) during the day and 6393 (+0.08%) at night [24]. - **PVC**: The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly, with mainstream markets rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda remained stable [28]. - **Plastic PP**: The price of LLDPE in some regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the price of PP in some regions decreased or remained stable [30]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs remained stable, and the 11 - month contract oscillated downward, closing at 801.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.87% [31]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The market price of high - white offset - printing paper in Shandong remained stable, and the OP2601 contract in the futures market rose 8 yuan/ton at night [33]. - **Pulp**: The futures market declined slightly, and the prices of various types of pulp in the spot market were stable or had slight fluctuations [34][35]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The RU main 01 contract rose 10 points (+0.06%); the NR main 11 contract rose 60 points (+0.49%); the BR main 11 contract rose 50 points (+0.44%) [37][38][40]. Related Information - **Crude Oil**: The central bank is expected to keep the LPR unchanged; some countries recognized the State of Palestine, causing an angry response from Israel; the number of US drilling rigs increased [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: Rain in Shandong affected demand, and contracts were being executed; in the Yangtze River Delta, demand was average, and some low - price resources were released; in South China, typhoons affected demand, but some social inventories had no pressure [4][5]. - **Fuel Oil**: China's fuel oil imports decreased in August, and some Russian refineries were affected by attacks [6][7][8]. - **PX & PTA**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and polyester decreased slightly, and some PX and PTA plants had maintenance plans [10][11][12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China increased slightly, and some plants had restart or maintenance plans [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The sales of polyester yarn were average, and the operating rates of downstream industries remained stable [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The export prices of polyester bottle - chips decreased slightly, and the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased [17][18]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The operating rates of petroleum benzene and its downstream industries changed, and some pure benzene and styrene plants had maintenance or restart plans [19][20][21]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased, and some plants restarted or were under maintenance [24][25]. - **PVC**: There was new production capacity pressure, and exports were expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of a large alumina plant in Shandong decreased, and the price of liquid chlorine in some regions increased [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of major producers increased, and there was new production capacity expected [30][31]. - **Log**: China's coniferous log imports decreased in August, and the funds of construction sites changed [32]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: The production of double - sided offset paper increased, and the inventory of producers increased [33][34]. - **Pulp**: A special paper production line of a company was put into operation, and a pulp mill extended its maintenance time [37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Jilin Petrochemical trial - produced a new type of rubber [39][41]. Logical Analysis - **Crude Oil**: OPEC increased production in August and September, the peak demand season in the Middle East ended, and the supply pressure increased. In the short term, oil prices are expected to be weak [2]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are falling, production is increasing, and the supply - demand balance is becoming more relaxed, with a relatively high valuation [4][5][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Russian refineries are gradually recovering, high - sulfur exports in the Middle East are increasing, and demand is weakening [8][9]. - **PX & PTA**: The macro - economic situation is weak, and the supply and demand of PX and PTA have decreased. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA will be alleviated later [12][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply has decreased and demand has increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The plant operating rate has increased, downstream demand is weak, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: The market supply is abundant, demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak; the supply of styrene may increase, and there is inventory accumulation pressure [20][21][22]. - **Propylene**: The propane market is in the peak season, the supply of propylene is increasing, and downstream product profits are poor [24][25]. - **PVC**: There is new production capacity pressure, demand is weak, and exports are expected to decline [26][27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market in Shandong has been released, and the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [28][29]. - **Plastic PP**: The demand is in the peak season, but there is new production capacity expected, and the cost support is weak [30][31]. - **Log**: The supply and demand are both weak, with supply expected to contract later [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand is weak, and cost support is limited [33][34]. - **Pulp**: The macro - economic situation has improved, but high inventory and weak demand suppress the rebound space [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: The inventory situation of different types of rubber is different, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of the BR contract has decreased, and short - positions are recommended to be held [40][41][42]. Trading Strategies - **Crude Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are weak; options: observe [1][4]. - **Asphalt**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: the asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates weakly; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][6]. - **Fuel Oil**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 at high prices [6][10]. - **PX & PTA**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [10][13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [13][15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [14][16][17]. - **PR (Bottle - Chip)**: Unilateral trading: oscillate; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [17][18][19]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [19][20][22]. - **Propylene**: Unilateral trading: oscillate and sort out; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [24][25][26]. - **PVC**: Unilateral trading: observe in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [28][29][30]. - **Plastic PP**: Unilateral trading: oscillate weakly in the short term and short - sell on rebounds in the medium term; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [30][31]. - **Log**: Unilateral trading: observe mainly, and aggressive investors can consider a small - scale long - position layout; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [32][33]. - **Offset - Printing Paper**: Unilateral trading: short - sell the 01 contract near the lower limit of the spot market price; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [33][34]. - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading: try a small - scale long - position in the SP main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage; options: observe [34][35][37]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract and take profits on short positions in the NR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Unilateral trading: hold short positions in the BR main 11 contract; arbitrage: observe; options: observe [40][41][42].

Group 1 - The main contract for caustic soda futures closed at 2641 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.88% [1] - The average capacity utilization rate nationwide decreased by 1.5% to 81.9% due to equipment maintenance [3] - The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises increased by 6.02% month-on-month and 18.22% year-on-year, reaching 37.83 million tons [2] Group 2 - New Lake Futures predicts a seasonal decline in caustic soda production due to maintenance, but overall production will remain stable [4] - Demand for caustic soda is supported by high operating rates and production in the alumina sector, although there is pressure from imports [4] - The traditional peak season for downstream demand is showing weak performance, leading to price declines in the caustic soda market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance in the night session, with some commodities experiencing gains while others faced declines [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Coking coal rose by over 1% [1] - Soybean meal, coking coal, and caustic soda saw slight increases [1] - Crude oil fell by over 1%, with fuel oil and paraxylene also experiencing minor declines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper remain tight. Domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting the upward movement of copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips in moderation [9]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are gradually tightening, and its price is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. - The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term. Recently, the oil price is oscillating, and it is advised to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt will both increase, and its price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [17]. - The upside space of PVC is expected to be limited in the near term [19]. - Coking coal still maintains a relatively strong trend [20]. - Urea is still building a bottom in oscillation, with a chance of rebound later, but the loose pattern has not reversed [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 19, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Container shipping to Europe dropped 6%, PX and PTA fell over 2%, and SC crude oil, bottle chips, and staple fiber dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, industrial silicon rose over 3%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and caustic soda, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and rapeseed oil rose over 1% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 (IF) rose 0.55%, the main contract of SSE 50 (IH) rose 0.34%, the main contract of CSI 500 (IC) rose 0.34%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 (IM) fell 0.21% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.13%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.21%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.77% [7]. - As of 15:17 on September 19, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2512 inflowed 2.922 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2512 inflowed 1.823 billion yuan, and iron ore 2601 inflowed 816 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai copper 2510 outflowed 867 million yuan, SSE 50 2512 outflowed 537 million yuan, and polysilicon 2511 outflowed 284 million yuan [7]. Specific Futures Analysis Shanghai Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened low and moved high. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [9]. - As of September 12, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the RC fee was -4.16 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable [9]. - Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October. Currently, the profitability of small and medium-sized smelters is under pressure, and the supply of refined copper remains tight [9]. - In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly [9]. - Currently, it is approaching the peak season. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak season expectations still needs to be observed [9]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased slightly, with an increase of 6,633 tons compared with last week. The import volume has increased, and the high price has suppressed copper demand, gradually starting the inventory accumulation trend [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high today. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in an oscillating manner [10]. - On the supply side, affected by the mine license, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite raw materials has dropped to 15%. Spodumene has gradually become the most important raw material for lithium carbonate. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is at a relatively high level year-on-year [11]. - On the demand side, the total domestic demand for lithium carbonate in August reached 102,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.49%. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the customer collection in the first half of September increased by 1.2% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 8.8% compared with the second half of August. The orders in the first half of September increased by 2.0% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 16.6% compared with the second half of August. Before the double festivals, the downstream restocking sentiment has improved [11]. Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased significantly more than expected, but refined oil inventories have increased more than expected, alleviating the previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the operating rate of US refineries has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [12]. - On September 7, eight OPEC+ countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, which will be implemented starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner [12]. - This will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil again. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel [12]. - Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [12]. - The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end. The weak US non-farm payrolls data has made the market worried about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term [12]. - Recently, the previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil [12]. - Trump said that Putin was disappointing and urged countries to stop buying oil from Russia, but at the same time said that the oil price needed to be further lowered to force Russia to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12]. - In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of supply increase [12]. - Israel launched an attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week decreased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 34.4%, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The asphalt operating rate has decreased slightly and is still at a relatively low level in recent years [14]. - According to Longzhong Information data, the expected asphalt production in China in September is 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons, an increase of 11.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, an increase of 34.1% [14]. - This week, the operating rates of various downstream industries of asphalt have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt has increased by 1.69 percentage points month-on-month to 30.31%, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [14]. - This week, North China has mainly executed previous contracts, and the shipment volume has increased significantly. The national shipment volume has increased by 31.10% month-on-month to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level [14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries has decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [14]. - The US has allowed Chevron to resume oil production in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount of asphalt raw materials purchased by China [14]. - Next week, the devices of Dongming Petrochemical, Shandong Jincheng, etc. will operate stably, and Henan Fengli has a plan to resume production. The asphalt production will increase. The weather in the north is okay, and many projects are rushing to work. However, the rainfall in some southern areas has increased, and the funds are restricted. The market is cautious, which affects the demand for asphalt [14]. - Recently, the crude oil futures price has oscillated narrowly, and the cost support for asphalt is limited [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased by 0.59 percentage points month-on-month to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving has increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 43.6%, and the plastic weaving orders have continued to increase slightly, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [15]. - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as the second line of Yangzi Petrochemical restarted. The operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to about 81%, at a neutral and relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawn yarn has dropped to about 28.5% [15]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [15]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [15]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 450,000 tons per year of the second line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production at the end of August, and another production line of 450,000 tons per year of the first line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production in early September. Recently, the number of overhaul devices has decreased slightly [15]. - The weather has improved, and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rate of plastic weaving continues to increase. Most downstream industries of PP are expected to continue to rise. The pre-holiday restocking of the downstream may bring some boost, but the current peak season demand is lower than expected, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement [15]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the PP industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [16]. Plastic - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as Jinghai Chemical's HDPE restarted. The operating rate of plastic has increased to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level [17]. - The downstream operating rate of PE has increased by 0.75 percentage points month-on-month to 42.92%. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season. The orders for agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. The orders for packaging film have also increased, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [17]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [17]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into production at the end of July, and the operating rate of plastic has increased [17]. - The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, the prices of agricultural film in various regions are stable, and the subsequent demand will further increase. The agricultural film enterprises are continuously restocking before the double festivals, the orders are gradually accumulating, and the operating situation has improved slightly, which may bring some boost, but the current peak season is not as good as expected [17]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the plastic industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [17]. PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region has continued to increase by 25 yuan per ton [18]. - Currently, on the supply side, the operating rate of PVC has decreased by 2.98 percentage points month-on-month to 76.96%. The operating rate of PVC has decreased and dropped to a neutral and relatively high level in the same period over the years [18]. - During the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate of PVC has continued to increase and has begun to exceed the same period last year, but it is still lower than other years [18]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has raised its quotation in September by $10 - 25 per ton. On August 14, India announced the latest anti-dumping duty on imported PVC, of which the duty on the Chinese mainland has been raised by about $50 per ton. The export expectation of Chinese PVC in the second half of the year has weakened [18]. - However, after the recent decrease in export prices, the export orders have strengthened month-on-month [18]. - This week, the social inventory has continued to increase and is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large [18]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year-on-year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion have further decreased [19]. - The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased month-on-month and is still near the lowest level in the same period over the years. The improvement of the real estate market still needs time [19]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC has increased this week and is still relatively high [19]. - In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons per year production capacity has been put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons per year production capacity is expected to be stably produced at the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons per year production capacity was put into production in early September, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons per year production capacity is in the trial production stage in September [19]. - The anti-involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is still no actual policy in the PVC industry. Most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [19]. - The cost support for PVC has strengthened, and the downstream has restocked before the festival. However, the devices of Heilongjiang Haohua, Gansu Jinchuan, etc. will resume production next week. The basis of PVC is relatively low, and the upside space of

Group 1 - The domestic futures main contracts mostly declined on September 19, with significant drops in various commodities [1] - The shipping index for Europe fell over 4%, while PX decreased by more than 2% [1] - SC crude oil dropped nearly 2%, and PTA, short fiber, bottle chips, and styrene (EB) all fell by over 1% [1] Group 2 - In contrast, there were increases in caustic soda, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and lithium carbonate, each rising by over 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific information about the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged. Although the Fed cut interest rates as expected, there are contradictions in the outlook. Gold prices are at a historical high, with short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term bullish trend. Silver follows gold and is recommended to be observed [4]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are proposed based on their market performance, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, such as going long on aluminum at dips, observing for zinc, going long on lead at dips, etc. [3][5] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is at a high level. The de - dollarization logic persists, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut, it is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations and a medium - term upward trend. Domestic gold ETF funds continue to flow in, and inventories in some exchanges increase [4]. - **Silver**: Follows the trend of gold and is recommended to be observed. Global silver ETF holdings decrease [4]. Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract drops. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side shows continuous warming. After the interest - rate cut and inventory de - stocking difficulties, the price has a phased decline. It is recommended to go long at dips considering future demand. The price of the alumina main contract also drops. The supply is in a high - production state, and the demand comes from electrolytic aluminum plants. Due to the supply - demand surplus pattern, it is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - **Zinc**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side disturbances increase, but overall supply is abundant. Consumption is "not in the peak - season", and inventories continue to accumulate. It is recommended to observe [3][5]. - **Lead**: The price of the main contract rises slightly. Supply is regionally tightened, and consumption is expected to increase. Inventories show a small accumulation, but spot circulation is tight. It is recommended to go long at dips [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply increases, and both social and warehouse inventories start to accumulate. Demand is at a relatively high level this year. The market is in a long - short game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price drops. Supply is increasing, and demand from the energy - storage and new - energy vehicle sectors is strong. It is expected to de - stock, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to observe [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price drops. Supply is stable, and inventories start to accumulate. Demand in the photovoltaic industry is weak. The market is in a game regarding policies, and it is expected to oscillate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse - spread opportunity [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract drops. Steel demand shows seasonal marginal improvement with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in the rebar 2601 contract [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract drops. Iron ore supply - demand is neutral to strong. It is recommended to observe [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract drops. Supply - side inventories are differentiated, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to observe [6]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans drops. Global supply is expected to be loose, and demand shows a structural differentiation. Short - term domestic and foreign markets are differentiated, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies [7]. - **Corn**: The 2511 contract is weakly running. Imported grain auctions increase supply, and new - crop production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price drops. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the domestic sugarcane growing situation varies by region. It is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: The price of the US cotton futures drops, and the domestic cotton futures are weakly oscillating. It is recommended to observe within a certain price range [8]. - **Log**: The 09 contract price drops. Port inventories are stable, and downstream demand has not improved. It is recommended to observe [8]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Malaysian palm oil drops. Supply is in a seasonal increase cycle, and demand shows a certain increase. Near - term inventories are accumulating, and there is a seasonal production - reduction expectation in the long - term. The short - term is restricted by international oils, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and bio - diesel policies [8]. - **Egg**: The 2511 contract oscillates narrowly, and the spot price drops. Supply is sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term [8]. - **Live Pig**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. Supply is abundant in the near - term and expected to decrease in the long - term. It is recommended to continue the reverse - spread strategy [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract price is flat. Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and inventories are at a new high. It is recommended to observe [10]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract drops. Raw material prices fluctuate, and downstream enterprise operating rates change slightly. The market is in an oscillating state under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation [10]. - **Glass**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and inventories are decreasing. Downstream demand shows seasonal improvement. It is recommended to go long at dips [10][11]. - **PP**: The main contract price drops slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or conduct a reverse - spread operation [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price drops. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price drops. Supply inventories are at a normal - to - high level, and demand is in the peak - season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will become looser. It is recommended to short at high prices or short the styrene profit [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract price drops. Supply is in the high - production season, and inventories are rising. Supply - demand is in a weak balance. It is recommended to observe [11][12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 01 contract price rises. Supply - demand is relatively healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various commodities and financial products. Some commodities are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, while others face supply - demand imbalances and price pressures. The Fed's interest rate cut has a certain impact on the market, but its influence varies across different sectors [2][3][49]. Summaries by Commodity Types Energy - **Crude Oil**: The medium - term downward trend remains unchanged. Although short - term geopolitical factors may cause fluctuations in supply, the rebound space is limited. A strategy of combining high - level short positions with call options is recommended [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The increase in domestic refinery operating rates benefits fuel oil feedstock demand, and the growth in Singapore's bunker fuel consumption is concentrated in high - sulfur bunker fuels. The low - sulfur fuel oil export quota has increased, and the supply pressure is not prominent. It is advisable to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread at low levels [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is strong, and the domestic market is also positive due to reduced imports in South China and good chemical margins. The short - term oil price ratio is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market [24]. - **Natural Gas**: Not mentioned in the provided content. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation as the Fed's attitude is cautious and the interest rate cut path is relatively mild [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate is seasonally rising, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not shown a turning point. The Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high [5]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel has declined. The pure nickel inventory has increased, and the nickel iron inventory has decreased. The Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level [10]. - **Lead**: The fundamentals of lead are strong domestically and weak overseas. The lead ingot import window may open, and the Shanghai lead has room for an upward rebound, with the upper limit temporarily seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Industrial Metals - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has reached a new high, and the supply is in excess. The price is under pressure, and the support level is temporarily seen around 2,830 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The LME zinc inventory is low, and the overseas supply is tight. The Shanghai zinc may rebound under the influence of the external market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to go short and also pay attention to the double - buying opportunity of the option's end - of - cycle [8]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the expected increase in enterprise costs from tax policy adjustments, it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum [6]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is oscillating. The rebar demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The hot - rolled coil demand is more resilient, and the inventory pressure is relieved. The overall steel price continues to rebound, but the rhythm may be volatile [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [16]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts is in progress. The price is affected by the expectation of coking coal production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is relatively strong due to the high expectation of production inspection and "anti - involution." It is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is rising. The demand is supported by the recovery of hot - metal production, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. The demand is good, but the high point is restricted by the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to "anti - involution" information [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory of production enterprises is increasing. The industrial demand is recovering, and the agricultural demand has a phased replenishment expectation. The market is oscillating at a low level [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the short term. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the long - term impact of overseas gas restrictions needs attention [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating. The supply may improve in the third quarter, but the high import volume suppresses market sentiment [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is supported by good downstream profits. The supply - demand situation has improved [28]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand may weaken slightly. The supply - demand situation of polyethylene is gradually improving, while that of polypropylene improves limitedly [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand needs to be observed. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The PTA price has rebounded, and the PX price has moved up. The demand for PTA is improving, but the price is still driven by raw materials [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at a low level due to the pressure of new - device expectations [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price has rebounded, and it is advisable to allocate long positions in the near - term contracts. The bottle - chip market has a slight improvement, but the long - term over - capacity problem persists [33]. Soft Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. The supply of soybeans is sufficient in the fourth quarter. The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the long term [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The prices are falling. The long - term trend is supported by overseas biodiesel policies, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed production is expected to be high, and the export is expected to be low. The domestic rapeseed - related prices are supported by supply bottlenecks but are also under pressure from soybean import expectations [39]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has reached a new low. The market is affected by the expectation of improved Sino - US economic and trade relations. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance and the performance of new - crop soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The price is slightly rising. The spot prices vary in different regions. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom after the new - crop purchase enthusiasm fades [41]. - **Live Hogs**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is high in the second half of the year. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is slightly weak, and the spot price is strong. It is advisable to consider long positions in the far - month contracts for next year's first half [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has declined. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be high, and the demand is still weak. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term [44]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar market has less inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The supply of apples is expected to be stable, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected [46]. - **Timber**: The price is oscillating. The supply is low, and the demand is going well during the off - season. The market lacks upward momentum in the short term [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The price is slightly falling. The inventory is still at a high level, and the supply is relatively loose. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock market is rising. The market style is expected to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and the opportunity of the Hang Seng Technology Index can be grasped [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond futures price is rising. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].