1月股票市场表现与资金入市热情形成正向反馈，新技术落地叠加地缘事件频发，相关主题如有色金属、石油石化、AI应用、商业航天等表现活跃。随着 房地产政策出台频次上升，"高切低"行情阶段性演绎但持续性不强。短期看，A股市场前期快速上涨叠加春节临近，市场存在内生的震荡整固诉求，中期 看，支撑市场表现的因素没有改变，A股具备形成慢牛的条件。配置方面，我们认为当前大盘成长风格仍占优，同时越来越多的低位补涨机会正在出现。 分别看各大类行业的景 气 表现：1）能源及基础材料：煤炭价格区间震荡、地缘因素支撑油价反弹、地产链商品维持弱势、有色金属波动率上升。 受终 端需求预期影响，1月我们观察的周期品价格表现延续分化，动力煤、焦煤、焦炭、原油、伦敦金、铜、铝、锌、碳酸锂、镨钕氧化物、钨、化工指数分 别环比上涨2%、4%、2%、14%、13%、5%、5%、8%、35%、24%、33%、5%，而螺纹钢、铁矿石价格持平，钴、水泥指数、玻璃指数分别下跌9%、 4%、3%。地产链商品价格延续弱势。短期有色金属价格快速上涨导致波动率大幅抬升。凯文·沃什被任命为新一任美联储主席，其过往经历成为月末贵金 属大幅调整的重要催化剂。 2）工业品：A ...

证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 30 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 钨行业月度跟踪 1 月钨价延续强势上涨，矿端供应紧张短期难改 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 本月钨行业市场表现强势，估值大幅提升 20250628 据 Wind 数据，本月1钨行业累计大幅上涨 60.78%，大幅跑赢基准（沪深 300）58.11 pct。行业估值（市盈率 TTM）自月初 37.25x 上升至 57.61x， 当前处于 93.57%2历史分位。 ❑ 本月国内钨产业链价格受资源端推动强势上行，不断创历史新高，国际 钨价同步上行 1 本月行业涨跌幅及价格统计时间区间为 2026/01/01 至 2026/01/29，下同。 2 估值历史分位数计算使用数据区间为 2019/12/2 至 2026/01/29，下同。 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 《供给约束加强，战略价值凸显》 行业评级：增持（下 ...

行业周报 | 有色金属 避险情绪逐步升温，贵金属配置价值进一步凸显 有色金属行业周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：国家统计局显示，2025 年规模以上工业增加值比上年增 长 5.9% 统计局 1 月 19 日公告，2025 年 12 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增 长 5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，12 月 份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.49%。2025 年，规模以上工业增加值 比上年增长 5.9%。 本周核心关注二：美国 11 月 PCE 通胀基本符合预期，美联储下周料维持利 率不变 当地时间周五，美国商务部经济分析局发布了 11 月份的 PCE 物价指数。作 为美联储最青睐的通胀指标，11 月 PCE 通胀数据小幅上行，进一步偏离央 行设定的目标水平，但整体仍符合市场预期。具体数据显示，美国 11 月整体 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，预期为 2.8%；环比上涨 0.2%，预期为 0.2%。 本周核心关注三：美联储褐皮书显示，近期美国经济活动温和扩张，但通胀 压力仍存 美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示，美国大多数地区的经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of oscillation and upward trend, with a shift towards dividend stocks and sectors with strong price increase certainty, such as non-ferrous metals, supported by recent US-China trade negotiations [2] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a continued rise in gold and industrial metal prices, with coal prices rebounding due to increased demand for the heating season and production cuts. In October, prices for thermal coal, coking coal, coking, and iron ore rose by 10%, 14%, 10%, and 3% respectively [3][10] - Coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.2% in September, maintaining negative growth for three consecutive months, while coal inventory remains historically high at 710 million tons [10] 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition is supporting demand for electrical equipment, with steady growth in the photovoltaic industry. In September, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% [4] - The price increase pace in the photovoltaic supply chain has slowed, with polysilicon and solar cell prices decreasing by 0.6% and 3% month-on-month [4] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic demand for home appliances continues to slow, with September sales for washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 16%, 26%, and 21% year-on-year respectively. The liquor industry is in a supply clearing phase, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai down by 6% year-on-year [5] - The food sector shows mixed performance, with prices for pork, chicken, and eggs declining, while vegetable prices have risen [5] 4) Technology - The AI industry chain is experiencing high prosperity, with strong overseas demand for AI computing driving sales of Chinese communication equipment. The net profit growth rates for software and services, computer equipment, communication equipment, and semiconductors reached 161%, 45%, 25%, and 33% respectively [6] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [6] 5) Financials - The banking sector's high dividend attributes are attracting medium to long-term capital allocation, with insurance premiums growing by 9% year-on-year in September. The average daily trading volume of A-shares has slightly decreased to 2.2 trillion yuan [6] - The stock market sentiment remains high, with a significant increase in margin trading balances reaching a historical high of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan [6] 6) Real Estate - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with October sales area in 30 major cities down by 27% year-on-year. The price index for new and second-hand residential properties has decreased by 2.7% and 5.2% respectively [7] - The industry is under pressure, with a focus on policy support and demand improvement [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as AI computing, communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry prosperity occurs [7] - Non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit from the global monetary order reconstruction, while export growth remains strong, enhancing profit margins for companies in engineering machinery, electrical equipment, and white goods [7]

每经记者｜张宝莲 每经编辑｜程鹏 魏官红 1600公斤钨条，评估作价1.5亿港元，折合9375万港元/吨。6月中旬，马来西亚商人王心兰以此条件成功换取中国稀土（00769.HK）14.3%的股份。 "钨条有没有？到底在哪里？我不知道。"两个多月后，中国稀土创始人蒋泉龙向《每日经济新闻》记者说道。 2024年5月，71岁的蒋泉龙重掌中国稀土，他希望能借助外部力量推动企业走出困境。但如今，对于公司经营，各方争议不断，其本人也因债务问题被董 事会"除名"。 围绕上述争议性交易，一系列疑问至今仍未有确切答案。近日，记者赶赴江苏宜兴、江西赣州及香港，试图厘清这笔交易的真实情况。 中国稀土运营实体 图片来源：每经记者 张宝莲 摄 蒋泉龙：质疑钨条实际价值 5月28日，中国稀土公告称，公司通过全资子公司Wealthy Energy Limited以每股0.375港元的价格向众景国际有限公司（以下简称"众景国际"）定增4亿股， 以此作为"代价股份"收购1600公斤纯度不低于99.995%（4N5）的钨条，交易总价1.5亿港元。 图片来源：中国稀土公告截图 不过，对于这笔交易的推进过程，中国稀土创始人蒋泉龙认为存在诸多疑点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversial tungsten bar transaction involving China Rare Earth Holdings, raising questions about the valuation and legitimacy of the deal, as well as the management's handling of the situation. Group 1: Transaction Details - A transaction involved 1,600 kg of tungsten bars valued at 150 million HKD, equating to 93.75 million HKD per ton, with Malaysia's Wang Xinlan acquiring 14.3% of China Rare Earth [1][2] - The founder of China Rare Earth, Jiang Quanjun, expressed uncertainty about the actual existence and value of the tungsten bars, indicating a lack of clarity surrounding the transaction [1][3] Group 2: Valuation Discrepancies - Jiang Quanjun provided reports indicating that the market price for high-purity tungsten bars (99.995%) ranged from 1.5 million to 1.6 million HKD per ton, significantly lower than the acquisition price [4][6] - China Rare Earth's valuation was based on an average price of 12,242.23 USD per kg, leading to an estimated value of approximately 195.88 million HKD for the tungsten bars, which Jiang Quanjun contested as inflated [6][7] Group 3: Management and Governance Issues - Jiang Quanjun raised concerns about the evaluation process, claiming reliance on unverified management information and lack of independent verification of the tungsten bars [7][9] - The board of China Rare Earth dismissed Jiang's complaints as unfounded, noting that he had previously agreed to the transaction during board meetings [9][10] Group 4: Financial and Operational Challenges - Following the transaction, China Rare Earth faced significant financial issues, including debts exceeding 200 million CNY and multiple lawsuits against its subsidiaries [11][12] - The company’s core operational entities were reported to be inactive, raising concerns about its future viability and the impact of the tungsten transaction on its operations [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversial transaction involving China Rare Earth (00769.HK) where 1,600 kg of tungsten bars were exchanged for a 14.3% stake in the company, raising questions about the valuation and legitimacy of the deal [1][18]. Group 1: Transaction Details - A Malaysian businessman, Wang Xinlan, successfully exchanged 1,600 kg of tungsten bars valued at 1.5 billion HKD, equating to 9,375 million HKD per ton, for shares in China Rare Earth [1]. - The transaction was completed on June 16, 2025, after the board approved it, despite ongoing disputes regarding the valuation and the legitimacy of the tungsten bars [18][19]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Founder Jiang Quanjun raised doubts about the actual value of the tungsten bars, questioning the methods used for their valuation [3][7]. - Reports indicated that the market price for high-purity tungsten bars (99.995%) was estimated to be between 1.5 million to 1.6 million HKD per ton, significantly lower than the price paid by China Rare Earth [12][17]. Group 3: Company Governance and Disputes - Jiang Quanjun was removed from the board due to debt issues and has since raised complaints about the transaction, claiming he was not fully informed during the approval process [22][25]. - The board of China Rare Earth responded to Jiang's complaints, stating they were unfounded and that he had previously agreed to the transaction [19][25]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Following the transaction, China Rare Earth faced operational difficulties, including debt accumulation and legal issues involving its subsidiaries, which have led to significant financial strain [27][28]. - The company has been under scrutiny for potential asset misappropriation and has faced multiple lawsuits related to its operational entities [27].

Investment Rating - The report rates the tungsten industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The global tungsten industry is experiencing a complex situation characterized by resource control competition and technological upgrades, with supply chain camp formation [2][12] - China's tungsten industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value-added products, driven by domestic upgrades and international market expansion [3][39] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing regional procurement trends, particularly in emerging markets like Russia and ASEAN countries [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Game: Strategic Value of Tungsten Resources and Supply System - 80% of global tungsten resources come from China, while high-end application technologies are dominated by Europe and the US, leading to a clash between China's outward industrial upgrade and the US's protection of its domestic industries [12][13] - The US aims to reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten through tariffs and domestic mining initiatives, while China seeks to maintain its resource advantages and expand its international market share [2][12] 2. Policy Duel: China's and the US's Dual Strategies - China's tungsten industry policies focus on transformation and control, implementing measures such as export tariffs and quotas to manage production and sales [16][22] - The US is working to lower its reliance on Chinese tungsten by diversifying import sources and increasing domestic production through the Defense Production Act [25][30] 3. Export Trends: Acceleration of Transformation in the Tungsten Industry - China's tungsten exports are experiencing a decline in overall volume but are shifting towards high-value products, with significant growth in exports to Russia and ASEAN countries [39][51] - The export structure is changing, with a focus on high-end products like hard alloy tools, which have seen price increases and growing demand [45][43] 4. Industry Opportunities: Focus on Regional Markets in Russia, Europe, and ASEAN - The geopolitical situation is driving regional procurement, with Russia emerging as a significant market for Chinese tungsten exports, showing a compound annual growth rate of nearly 70% from 2018 to 2024 [3][51] - The EU's rearmament plans are expected to stimulate demand for tungsten products, particularly in Germany, creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][51]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.19% and the Tech Index increasing by 0.27% [1] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (02096.HK) saw a rise of 6.3% following a collaboration with NextCure for overseas sales of certain drugs [1] - China Rare Earth (00769.HK) experienced a 4% increase after completing the issuance of 400 million shares to acquire tungsten bar assets [1]

Group 1 - The company has entered into an agreement to sell tungsten bars for a total consideration of HKD 150 million, which will be settled through the issuance of 400 million shares at an issue price of HKD 0.375 per share [1] - Tungsten is a critical rare metal widely used in advanced industries such as semiconductors, aerospace, and renewable energy, with increasing demand for high-purity tungsten products [1] - The board believes that the market demand for tungsten will continue to grow strongly in the near future, and the sale of tungsten will diversify the company's mineral portfolio and enhance its resilience in the evolving global supply chain [1] Group 2 - The acquisition is seen as a good opportunity to expand the company's business activities into adjacent markets, leveraging the existing rare earth business [2] - The board believes that the acquisition will diversify the company's revenue sources and strengthen its supply chain, thereby improving overall performance [2] - The structure of the acquisition aligns the interests of the seller and the company, paving the way for potential strategic cooperation and improved operational efficiency through shared resources and customer networks [2]