人狠话不多，金属狠起来，也没黄金什么事儿了。 当全世界的目光还停留在黄金是否见顶、美联储何时降息的时候，一个不起眼的"小金属"：钨，已经悄然完成了它的史诗级逆袭。 2025年全年涨幅超220%，2026年开局不到两个月，价格又像坐上了火箭，直冲云霄 。 来源：铁合金在线 2月24节后开盘首日，当A股三大指数还在犹豫下一步往哪儿走的时候，小金属板块已经用脚投票，CS稀金属指数上涨2.75% 。 来源：雪球 市场在追捧什么？ 明牌上写着的，是那个被誉为"工业牙齿"的钨。 更有意思的是龙头企业的长单报价。2月24日，章源钨业官微发布的最新长单采购价显示，黑钨精矿（WO₃≥55%）报73万元/标吨，仲钨酸铵报107万元/ 吨，分别较半月前暴涨了近9%和10% 。 这说明什么？说明在资本二级市场狂欢之前，产业资本已经用真金白银对当下的现货紧缺投出了最笃定的信任票。 供给端的"三重门"：配额、品位与海外空窗 有人说这是资金的炒作，也有人说是黄金带崩了钨概念。但当我翻开最新的行业数据，却发现事情远没那么简单。这背后，是一场关于资源、政策与新质 生产力的深度博弈。 现货市场"煤飞色舞"，长单价频创新高 我们先来看一组热乎的数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of adjustment after a rapid rise, with potential for a slow bull market supported by favorable factors. The current market favors growth styles, with emerging opportunities in low-priced stocks [2]. Group 1: Energy and Basic Materials - Coal prices are in a state of fluctuation, with January prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and coke rising by 2%, 4%, and 2% respectively. The coal industry maintains stable profitability and cash flow, with a current dividend yield of 5.3% [9]. - Oil prices have shown a 14% increase month-on-month in January, but a year-on-year decrease of 11%. Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting oil supply and prices [10]. - The prices of non-ferrous metals have seen significant increases, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 35% in January. The demand is supported by AI applications and the proliferation of new energy [11]. Group 2: Industrial Products - The AI industry chain remains highly prosperous, with strong domestic demand for engineering machinery and a projected 18% increase in domestic excavator sales by 2025. The photovoltaic industry is also seeing price recoveries [3]. - The automotive sector is facing a projected 6% decline in sales by November 2025, with a focus on opportunities related to overseas markets and smart driving [3]. Group 3: Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a decline, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners dropping by 27%, 37%, and 36% year-on-year in December 2025. The effectiveness of consumption support policies is under observation [4]. - The average purchase price of live pigs remains stable at 14 yuan/kg, with a total pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, indicating a relatively abundant supply [4]. Group 4: Technology - The domestic AI application landscape is seeing significant developments, with multiple domestic large models being released. The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 30% year-on-year in November [5]. - The gaming industry is recovering, with 1,771 game licenses issued in 2025, indicating a positive trend [5]. Group 5: Financials - The stock market sentiment has improved significantly, with insurance premium income rising by 7% year-on-year in December 2025. The average daily trading volume of A-shares exceeded 30 trillion yuan in January [5].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is upgraded to "Overweight" from "Buy" due to rapid valuation increases and optimistic expectations reflected in stock prices [5]. Core Insights - The tungsten industry has shown strong market performance with a significant valuation increase, outperforming the benchmark index [2]. - Domestic tungsten prices have reached historical highs, driven by tight supply at the mining level and rising prices for long-term contracts [3]. - The supply chain remains constrained by tight raw material availability, leading to limited demand release and reduced transaction volumes [6]. Price Statistics - In January 2026, the average price of 65% black tungsten concentrate increased by 26.69% month-on-month to 510,600 CNY/ton, and by 254.75% year-on-year, with the increase from December 2025 expanding by 72.05 percentage points [5]. - The average price of 65% white tungsten concentrate rose by 26.76% month-on-month to 508,700 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 256.66% [5]. - The average price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) increased by 26.2% month-on-month to 751,400 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 254.53% [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of tungsten concentrate has slightly decreased, with weekly production dropping from 1,880 tons to 1,870 tons [6]. - The production of APT is estimated to increase by 5.88% in January 2026, but the overall supply remains constrained due to tight raw material availability [6]. - Demand is primarily driven by essential needs, with limited room for growth as rising raw material prices suppress downstream replenishment [6]. Profitability Analysis - Mining profits are expanding due to resource scarcity and price increases, with simulated gross profit for tungsten concentrate reaching 334,900 CNY/ton, a month-on-month increase of 40.77% [6]. - The midstream refining sector is also seeing steady profit growth, while downstream processing and alloy sectors are experiencing profit pressure due to lagging price transmission [6]. Investment Recommendations - The long-term outlook for the tungsten industry is positive, with supply constraints expected to strengthen due to declining ore grades and increased mining costs [6]. - Short-term expectations indicate that tight supply conditions will likely persist, supporting strong tungsten concentrate prices [6]. - Continued focus is recommended on companies with rich tungsten resources and integrated industrial layouts, particularly those investing in deep processing and emerging product areas [7].

行业周报 | 有色金属 避险情绪逐步升温，贵金属配置价值进一步凸显 有色金属行业周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：国家统计局显示，2025 年规模以上工业增加值比上年增 长 5.9% 统计局 1 月 19 日公告，2025 年 12 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增 长 5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，12 月 份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.49%。2025 年，规模以上工业增加值 比上年增长 5.9%。 本周核心关注二：美国 11 月 PCE 通胀基本符合预期，美联储下周料维持利 率不变 当地时间周五，美国商务部经济分析局发布了 11 月份的 PCE 物价指数。作 为美联储最青睐的通胀指标，11 月 PCE 通胀数据小幅上行，进一步偏离央 行设定的目标水平，但整体仍符合市场预期。具体数据显示，美国 11 月整体 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，预期为 2.8%；环比上涨 0.2%，预期为 0.2%。 本周核心关注三：美联储褐皮书显示，近期美国经济活动温和扩张，但通胀 压力仍存 美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示，美国大多数地区的经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of oscillation and upward trend, with a shift towards dividend stocks and sectors with strong price increase certainty, such as non-ferrous metals, supported by recent US-China trade negotiations [2] Industry Performance Summary 1) Energy and Basic Materials - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has led to a continued rise in gold and industrial metal prices, with coal prices rebounding due to increased demand for the heating season and production cuts. In October, prices for thermal coal, coking coal, coking, and iron ore rose by 10%, 14%, 10%, and 3% respectively [3][10] - Coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.2% in September, maintaining negative growth for three consecutive months, while coal inventory remains historically high at 710 million tons [10] 2) Industrial Products - The energy transition is supporting demand for electrical equipment, with steady growth in the photovoltaic industry. In September, excavator domestic sales grew by 22% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% [4] - The price increase pace in the photovoltaic supply chain has slowed, with polysilicon and solar cell prices decreasing by 0.6% and 3% month-on-month [4] 3) Consumer Goods - Domestic demand for home appliances continues to slow, with September sales for washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 16%, 26%, and 21% year-on-year respectively. The liquor industry is in a supply clearing phase, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai down by 6% year-on-year [5] - The food sector shows mixed performance, with prices for pork, chicken, and eggs declining, while vegetable prices have risen [5] 4) Technology - The AI industry chain is experiencing high prosperity, with strong overseas demand for AI computing driving sales of Chinese communication equipment. The net profit growth rates for software and services, computer equipment, communication equipment, and semiconductors reached 161%, 45%, 25%, and 33% respectively [6] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [6] 5) Financials - The banking sector's high dividend attributes are attracting medium to long-term capital allocation, with insurance premiums growing by 9% year-on-year in September. The average daily trading volume of A-shares has slightly decreased to 2.2 trillion yuan [6] - The stock market sentiment remains high, with a significant increase in margin trading balances reaching a historical high of approximately 2.5 trillion yuan [6] 6) Real Estate - The real estate market is still in a bottoming phase, with October sales area in 30 major cities down by 27% year-on-year. The price index for new and second-hand residential properties has decreased by 2.7% and 5.2% respectively [7] - The industry is under pressure, with a focus on policy support and demand improvement [7] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors such as AI computing, communication equipment, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to remain attractive until a significant change in industry prosperity occurs [7] - Non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit from the global monetary order reconstruction, while export growth remains strong, enhancing profit margins for companies in engineering machinery, electrical equipment, and white goods [7]

每经记者｜张宝莲 每经编辑｜程鹏 魏官红 1600公斤钨条，评估作价1.5亿港元，折合9375万港元/吨。6月中旬，马来西亚商人王心兰以此条件成功换取中国稀土（00769.HK）14.3%的股份。 "钨条有没有？到底在哪里？我不知道。"两个多月后，中国稀土创始人蒋泉龙向《每日经济新闻》记者说道。 2024年5月，71岁的蒋泉龙重掌中国稀土，他希望能借助外部力量推动企业走出困境。但如今，对于公司经营，各方争议不断，其本人也因债务问题被董 事会"除名"。 围绕上述争议性交易，一系列疑问至今仍未有确切答案。近日，记者赶赴江苏宜兴、江西赣州及香港，试图厘清这笔交易的真实情况。 中国稀土运营实体 图片来源：每经记者 张宝莲 摄 蒋泉龙：质疑钨条实际价值 5月28日，中国稀土公告称，公司通过全资子公司Wealthy Energy Limited以每股0.375港元的价格向众景国际有限公司（以下简称"众景国际"）定增4亿股， 以此作为"代价股份"收购1600公斤纯度不低于99.995%（4N5）的钨条，交易总价1.5亿港元。 图片来源：中国稀土公告截图 不过，对于这笔交易的推进过程，中国稀土创始人蒋泉龙认为存在诸多疑点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversial tungsten bar transaction involving China Rare Earth Holdings, raising questions about the valuation and legitimacy of the deal, as well as the management's handling of the situation. Group 1: Transaction Details - A transaction involved 1,600 kg of tungsten bars valued at 150 million HKD, equating to 93.75 million HKD per ton, with Malaysia's Wang Xinlan acquiring 14.3% of China Rare Earth [1][2] - The founder of China Rare Earth, Jiang Quanjun, expressed uncertainty about the actual existence and value of the tungsten bars, indicating a lack of clarity surrounding the transaction [1][3] Group 2: Valuation Discrepancies - Jiang Quanjun provided reports indicating that the market price for high-purity tungsten bars (99.995%) ranged from 1.5 million to 1.6 million HKD per ton, significantly lower than the acquisition price [4][6] - China Rare Earth's valuation was based on an average price of 12,242.23 USD per kg, leading to an estimated value of approximately 195.88 million HKD for the tungsten bars, which Jiang Quanjun contested as inflated [6][7] Group 3: Management and Governance Issues - Jiang Quanjun raised concerns about the evaluation process, claiming reliance on unverified management information and lack of independent verification of the tungsten bars [7][9] - The board of China Rare Earth dismissed Jiang's complaints as unfounded, noting that he had previously agreed to the transaction during board meetings [9][10] Group 4: Financial and Operational Challenges - Following the transaction, China Rare Earth faced significant financial issues, including debts exceeding 200 million CNY and multiple lawsuits against its subsidiaries [11][12] - The company’s core operational entities were reported to be inactive, raising concerns about its future viability and the impact of the tungsten transaction on its operations [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a controversial transaction involving China Rare Earth (00769.HK) where 1,600 kg of tungsten bars were exchanged for a 14.3% stake in the company, raising questions about the valuation and legitimacy of the deal [1][18]. Group 1: Transaction Details - A Malaysian businessman, Wang Xinlan, successfully exchanged 1,600 kg of tungsten bars valued at 1.5 billion HKD, equating to 9,375 million HKD per ton, for shares in China Rare Earth [1]. - The transaction was completed on June 16, 2025, after the board approved it, despite ongoing disputes regarding the valuation and the legitimacy of the tungsten bars [18][19]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Founder Jiang Quanjun raised doubts about the actual value of the tungsten bars, questioning the methods used for their valuation [3][7]. - Reports indicated that the market price for high-purity tungsten bars (99.995%) was estimated to be between 1.5 million to 1.6 million HKD per ton, significantly lower than the price paid by China Rare Earth [12][17]. Group 3: Company Governance and Disputes - Jiang Quanjun was removed from the board due to debt issues and has since raised complaints about the transaction, claiming he was not fully informed during the approval process [22][25]. - The board of China Rare Earth responded to Jiang's complaints, stating they were unfounded and that he had previously agreed to the transaction [19][25]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Following the transaction, China Rare Earth faced operational difficulties, including debt accumulation and legal issues involving its subsidiaries, which have led to significant financial strain [27][28]. - The company has been under scrutiny for potential asset misappropriation and has faced multiple lawsuits related to its operational entities [27].

Investment Rating - The report rates the tungsten industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The global tungsten industry is experiencing a complex situation characterized by resource control competition and technological upgrades, with supply chain camp formation [2][12] - China's tungsten industry is undergoing a transformation towards high-value-added products, driven by domestic upgrades and international market expansion [3][39] - The geopolitical landscape is influencing regional procurement trends, particularly in emerging markets like Russia and ASEAN countries [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Background of the Game: Strategic Value of Tungsten Resources and Supply System - 80% of global tungsten resources come from China, while high-end application technologies are dominated by Europe and the US, leading to a clash between China's outward industrial upgrade and the US's protection of its domestic industries [12][13] - The US aims to reduce dependency on Chinese tungsten through tariffs and domestic mining initiatives, while China seeks to maintain its resource advantages and expand its international market share [2][12] 2. Policy Duel: China's and the US's Dual Strategies - China's tungsten industry policies focus on transformation and control, implementing measures such as export tariffs and quotas to manage production and sales [16][22] - The US is working to lower its reliance on Chinese tungsten by diversifying import sources and increasing domestic production through the Defense Production Act [25][30] 3. Export Trends: Acceleration of Transformation in the Tungsten Industry - China's tungsten exports are experiencing a decline in overall volume but are shifting towards high-value products, with significant growth in exports to Russia and ASEAN countries [39][51] - The export structure is changing, with a focus on high-end products like hard alloy tools, which have seen price increases and growing demand [45][43] 4. Industry Opportunities: Focus on Regional Markets in Russia, Europe, and ASEAN - The geopolitical situation is driving regional procurement, with Russia emerging as a significant market for Chinese tungsten exports, showing a compound annual growth rate of nearly 70% from 2018 to 2024 [3][51] - The EU's rearmament plans are expected to stimulate demand for tungsten products, particularly in Germany, creating opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][51]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.19% and the Tech Index increasing by 0.27% [1] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (02096.HK) saw a rise of 6.3% following a collaboration with NextCure for overseas sales of certain drugs [1] - China Rare Earth (00769.HK) experienced a 4% increase after completing the issuance of 400 million shares to acquire tungsten bar assets [1]