Group 1: Industry Overview - The domestic new energy vehicle market experienced significant growth in September, with most brands achieving both year-on-year and month-on-month increases in delivery volumes [1][2][3] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period is traditionally a peak season for the automotive market, supported by government policies for vehicle scrappage and trade-in incentives [1][5] - The implementation of more targeted and precise scrappage policies is expected to positively impact market expectations [1][5] Group 2: Company Performance - Leap Motor achieved a record delivery of 66,657 vehicles in September, a 97% year-on-year increase, with a total of 395,500 vehicles delivered in the first nine months of the year [2] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 52,916 vehicles in September, becoming the second-largest seller, with strong performance from models like the AITO Wenjie [2] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 41,581 vehicles in September, a 95% increase year-on-year, with plans to expand into the range-extended electric vehicle market [3] - NIO delivered 34,749 vehicles in September, a 64% year-on-year increase, with cumulative sales reaching 201,200 vehicles in the first nine months [3] - Ideal Auto reported a September delivery of 33,951 vehicles, a 36.8% year-on-year decline, but showed signs of recovery month-on-month [3] - Xiaomi Auto's delivery exceeded 40,000 vehicles in September, marking a historical high, with a backlog of orders indicating strong demand [4] Group 3: Policy Impact - As of September 10, 8.3 million applications for the vehicle trade-in program were submitted, indicating strong consumer interest [5] - The adjustment of trade-in policies reflects a shift from broad subsidies to more targeted support for specific groups, enhancing the efficiency of subsidy funds [5][6] - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in September is expected to reach approximately 2.15 million units, with a 6.5% month-on-month increase and a 2.0% year-on-year increase [6]

Core Insights - The new P7 model is officially launched, with a strong sales expectation of over 40,000 units per month from September to December, supported by its advanced features and performance [1] - The company is enhancing growth potential through its range extender technology and deepening collaboration with Volkswagen, which is expected to boost revenue opportunities [2] - The IRON humanoid robot has entered practical training, with significant advancements anticipated by the second half of 2025, showcasing the company's commitment to robotics [3] Group 1 - The new P7 model is launched with a price range of 219,800 to 301,800 yuan, featuring an 800V high-voltage SiC platform, 820 km range, and advanced AI capabilities [1] - The company expects the X9 range extender version to launch in Q4 2025, with a pure electric range of 450 km, enhancing its competitive edge [2] - The IRON robot, designed with 62 active degrees of freedom and advanced AI capabilities, is set to be integrated into various operational scenarios [3] Group 2 - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 85.6 billion, 127.6 billion, and 153.9 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, respectively, with a target price of 120.34 HKD [3] - The collaboration with Volkswagen aims to expand the electronic and electrical architecture for both fuel and plug-in hybrid models in the Chinese market [2] - The company’s technology stack for the IRON robot aligns with its automotive technology, indicating a strategic integration of AI across its product lines [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 120.34 [7][5] Core Insights - The new P7 model was officially launched on August 27, 2025, with a price range of HKD 219,800 to HKD 301,800, and it is expected to significantly boost monthly sales to over 40,000 units from September to December 2025 [2][3] - The company is focusing on a three-pronged strategy involving range extension, smart technology, and robotics, which is anticipated to drive incremental growth [1][5] - The partnership with Volkswagen has deepened, with a strategic agreement signed to expand the development of electronic and electrical architecture, which is expected to enhance revenue opportunities [3][5] Summary by Sections New Product Launch - The new P7 features an 800V high-voltage SiC platform, 5C supercharging AI battery, and a maximum range of 820 km, with a powerful performance of 593 Ps and 0-100 km/h acceleration in 3.7 seconds [2][3] - The design and interior of the P7 are aimed at attracting younger consumers who appreciate performance and innovative design [2] Growth Catalysts - The company plans to launch the X9 range extender version in Q4 2025, which is expected to have a significant competitive advantage with a range of 450 km [3] - The introduction of the VLA model for the P7 and G7 is set to enhance the company's smart technology capabilities, with plans for L4 autonomous vehicles by 2026 [3] Robotics Development - The IRON humanoid robot, designed with 62 degrees of freedom and advanced AI capabilities, has entered factory training and is expected to be showcased at the "Xiaopeng 1024 Technology Day" in 2025 [4][5] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at RMB 85.606 billion, RMB 127.626 billion, and RMB 153.919 billion respectively, with a projected return to profitability in Q4 2025 [5][10] - The report maintains a valuation of 2.1x 2025E PS for the sales business, reflecting a premium over comparable companies [5][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 34.1 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 133%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 1.1 billion RMB, narrowing the loss by 57% compared to the previous year [1][5] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 17.3%, showing a significant increase due to scale effects and cost control measures [2][11] - The company is expected to launch new models, including the G7 and the new P7, which are anticipated to drive monthly sales beyond 40,000 units in the latter half of 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 18.3 billion RMB, with automotive sales contributing 16.9 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 148% and 18% respectively [1][2] - The gross margin for automotive sales reached 14.3%, marking an improvement for eight consecutive quarters [2][11] Sales and Delivery - The company delivered a total of 198,000 vehicles in H1 2025, with the M03 and P7+ models contributing stable sales [3] - The G7 model, launched on July 3, has already surpassed 10,000 deliveries by August 13 [3] Product Development and Partnerships - The upcoming launch of the new P7 on August 27 is expected to attract a younger demographic with its sporty design and advanced features [3][4] - The company has deepened its collaboration with Volkswagen, expanding the scope of their electronic and electrical architecture technology partnership [4][15] Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 85.6 billion, 127.6 billion, and 153.9 billion RMB respectively, reflecting an increase of 31% and 23% for 2026 and 2027 [5][11] - The target price for the company's stock has been raised to 120.34 HKD, maintaining a premium valuation compared to peers [5][14]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement between XPeng Motors and Volkswagen Group aims to expand their collaboration from pure electric vehicles to include fuel and plug-in hybrid models, enhancing both companies' market positions and technological capabilities [1][3]. Group 1: Previous Collaborations - Prior to the new agreement, XPeng and Volkswagen had collaborated four times, including a $700 million investment from Volkswagen for a 4.99% stake in XPeng and joint development of two B-class electric vehicle models [2]. - In February 2024, they signed a platform and software strategic technology cooperation agreement to accelerate the development of B-class electric vehicles and initiated a joint procurement plan [2]. - The electronic and electrical architecture technology cooperation agreement was signed in April 2024, focusing on the development of the China Electronic Architecture (CEA) [2]. - In July 2024, the cooperation was expanded to include Volkswagen's CMP and MEB platforms, enhancing XPeng's supply chain capabilities and market valuation [2]. Group 2: Implications of the New Agreement - The new agreement solidifies Volkswagen's position in the traditional fuel vehicle market while accelerating its transition to electric vehicles, leveraging XPeng's CEA architecture across its extensive product range [3]. - For XPeng, this agreement allows for participation in the global supply chain and potential brand promotion through Volkswagen's overseas sales network [3]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Performance - The agreement is expected to directly support XPeng's goal of achieving profitability by Q4 2025, with technical service revenue reaching 1.44 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 43.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the technical service revenue share for XPeng will rise from 9.1% in Q4 2024 to 15% in Q4 2025, contributing to an overall gross margin exceeding 17% [4]. - XPeng has launched several successful models, with the G6 and G9 seeing sales growth after price adjustments, and the Mona M03 maintaining strong sales performance [4]. - The company has achieved 66.8% of its annual sales target of 350,000 units, leading among new car manufacturers [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [18]. Core Insights - The core trend observed at the recent robotics conference is the acceleration of application scenario diversification and significant cost reductions in core sensors and hardware, with conditions for implementation gradually maturing. Similar to the early stages of autonomous driving, humanoid robots exhibit both a general-purpose route and a focus on niche scenarios. In high-tech, long commercialization paths with complex regulatory requirements, companies with stable cash flows and clear application scenarios are more resilient to capital shocks. Humanoid robots require control of at least 10-15 degrees of freedom, with algorithm complexity significantly higher than that of autonomous driving. The market space for robots is vast, but regulatory frameworks need improvement, and there are more ethical challenges, with a short-term maturity timeline of 2-3 years. Investment focus should be on the binding degree between companies and application scenarios, as well as the feasibility of technology, regulation, and costs. Currently, hardware is no longer the main bottleneck; breakthroughs are expected in control algorithms and human-machine interaction experiences, particularly in low-algorithm dependency scenarios like healthcare and exoskeletons, which are likely to see early volume growth [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Robotics Conference - The robotics conference highlighted the trend of accelerating diversification in application scenarios and significant cost reductions in core sensors and hardware, leading to maturing implementation conditions. The humanoid robot market is expected to have a larger space and long-tail demand, but it faces regulatory and ethical challenges that need to be addressed [6]. 2. Cycloidal Gear Reducers - The design of robot joints imposes new requirements on reducer structures, with a focus on cycloidal gear reducers. These reducers have a high engagement ratio (up to 70%-80%) and superior impact resistance and load-bearing performance compared to harmonic drives, while being smaller than RV reducers. Despite slightly lower precision and heavier weight, improvements through structural design and material changes are anticipated. Companies with existing layouts in the cycloidal gear reducer field, such as Shuanghuan Transmission and Changban Technology, are recommended for attention [7]. 3. XPeng Motors - XPeng is focusing on the upgrade of the new P7 model and the layout of extended-range products. The new P7 is designed to appeal to mainstream aesthetics, with increased size for rear space and comfort, and features a mid-mounted electric drive layout and dual-chamber air suspension. The intelligent driving system has been upgraded to the Ultra version, supporting L4 level autonomous driving. The pricing strategy will be crucial for its market performance, with the X9 extended-range version expected to launch soon, which is seen as a key driver for future sales growth [8]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations include focusing on domestic leading manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and XPeng, as well as companies with strong performance growth and robotics layouts such as Fuyao Glass and Shuanghuan Transmission. The report emphasizes the importance of technology and regulatory feasibility in investment decisions [5][8].