Core Insights - The Chinese AI industry is experiencing an unprecedented wave of flagship model releases, marking a competitive race among major players to convert technological advancements into consumer products [1][10] - The 2026 Spring Festival is anticipated to be a critical period for AI model launches, with multiple companies preparing to unveil significant updates simultaneously [2][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The 2025 strategy of DeepSeek's Spring Festival launch has set a precedent, leading other companies to adopt similar tactics for product releases [2] - ByteDance has initiated the competition by launching a trio of models: Seedance 2.0, Seedream 5.0, and Doubao 2.0, with Seedance 2.0 already signaling potential success [2][3] - Alibaba is set to release Qwen 3.5 in mid-February, supported by a substantial customer acquisition incentive of 3 billion yuan [3] - Zhiyu has introduced GLM-5, expanding its parameters from 355 billion to 744 billion [4] - DeepSeek is expected to launch its V4 version in mid-February, focusing on improvements in coding and long prompt handling [6] - MiniMax has recently launched its M2.5 model on the Agent platform [8] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The simultaneous release of multiple models is likely to create a "winner-takes-all" scenario, where underperforming models may face significant disadvantages [10] - The scarcity of attention during the Spring Festival means that labs failing to present credible flagship updates risk being excluded from developers' consideration [12] - DeepSeek's potential release is seen as pivotal, not just for its chatbot capabilities but for the platform economic benefits it may unlock [12] Group 3: Technological Innovations - DeepSeek's new approach, as outlined in its paper on scalable conditional memory, could enhance model efficiency by shifting expensive computations to cheaper retrieval operations [12][14] - If successful, this could transform AI from an expensive "toy" into an affordable "tool," facilitating broader integration into high-frequency consumer products [14] Group 4: Beneficiaries and Implications - Tencent is projected to be the biggest beneficiary of the model competition, leveraging its high-frequency communication platforms, WeChat and QQ, to enhance user experience through improved model performance [15][16] - For Alibaba and Baidu, while stronger models could enhance user experience, they may also face pricing pressures if DeepSeek instigates a price war in the API service market [17] - Vertical giants like Trip.com, Beike, and Kuaishou stand to benefit from powerful open-source models that lower technical barriers and accelerate product iteration [17] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite the excitement in the capital markets, there is a cautious sentiment regarding the actual performance of consumer-facing AI models, with large-scale user testing during the Spring Festival seen as a critical evaluation point [18][19] - The true signal of adoption will be whether major players integrate AI as a default feature in high-frequency interfaces, which would drive sustained demand for reasoning capabilities [19] Group 6: Valuation and Long-term Perspective - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating for model developers Zhiyu and MiniMax, with target prices set at 400 HKD and 700 HKD respectively, based on a 30x P/E ratio for 2030 [21]

Core Viewpoint - Despite delivering strong financial results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, AppLovin's stock price fell significantly due to market concerns about AI's impact on game development and competition from tech giants [2][5]. Financial Performance - AppLovin reported Q4 revenue of $1.66 billion, a 66% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $1.6 billion; EPS was $3.24, exceeding the consensus estimate of $2.95 [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.4 billion, up 82% year-over-year, with an impressive EBITDA margin of 84% [4][14]. - For Q1 2026, the company expects revenue between $1.745 billion and $1.775 billion, indicating a 5% to 7% sequential growth, with EBITDA margin expected to remain at 84% [4][16]. Market Concerns - Analysts expressed concerns regarding AI tools like Google's "Project Genie" potentially disrupting the gaming industry and competition from Meta in the advertising space [5]. - AppLovin's CEO Adam Foroughi countered these fears by highlighting the company's strong operational performance driven by its own AI models, asserting a disconnect between market sentiment and business reality [5][10]. Competitive Landscape - Foroughi argued that increased competition, including from Meta, could actually benefit AppLovin by expanding the overall market rather than diminishing its share [6][11]. - The CEO emphasized that the company's unique business model allows it to thrive in a competitive environment, as it charges a fee on winning bids rather than competing for low-value impressions [6][11]. E-commerce Expansion - AppLovin is expanding into e-commerce, with a self-service platform launched in Q4, showing substantial growth in existing customer spending [7][38]. - A case study highlighted a client that grew revenue from $4 million to $16 million using AppLovin's platform, showcasing the company's ability to support small businesses [7][38]. Capital Allocation and Stock Buybacks - The company executed an aggressive stock buyback strategy, repurchasing approximately $2.58 billion worth of shares in 2025, with $2.5 billion in cash remaining on its balance sheet [7][15]. - Foroughi expressed confidence in the company's long-term growth potential, stating that if the market undervalues its stock, the company will focus on execution and let results speak over time [7][15].

马斯克不仅要在软件层面通过"Macrohard"项目实现全自动化办公以挑战微软，更在硬件层面规划了月 球制造基地，试图通过"天基算力"解决AI能耗瓶颈。 当地时间周二晚间，xAI罕见地在X平台上公开了一段长达45分钟的全员会议视频。马斯克在会上正式 确立了公司新的四大业务支柱，并详细阐述了名为"Macrohard"的项目愿景。此次会议不仅确认了公司 在与SpaceX合并后的组织架构剧变，更披露了详细的产品路线图及财务里程碑。 此外，联合创始人Guodong Zhang的职权得到显著提升，他不仅领导代码和图像生成功能的团队，还负 责监管社交媒体服务X的领导团队。另一位联合创始人Manuel Kroiss则与Zhang共同领导代码团队。 月球工厂与电磁弹射：星际算力野心 这四个团队分别是： 其中，"Macrohard"项目尤为引人关注。该项目名称显然是针对微软（Microsoft）的文字游戏（Macro对 Micro，Hard对Soft），由联合创始人Toby Pohlen领导。马斯克将该项目描述为"数字人类模拟"，其核 心目标是让AI能够"做任何人类使用计算机能做的事情"。其野心在于彻底的白领工作自动化。项目负 ...

芝加哥加密货币借贷机构BlockFills在市场剧烈波动中按下"暂停键"，引发市场对流动性危机的担忧。 机构客户承压与巨头背书 BlockFills并非面向散户的小型平台，其业务动荡直接影响的是加密货币市场的"鲸鱼"们。 据其网站显示，该公司为约2000家机构客户提供流动性和借贷服务，其中包括专注于加密货币的对冲基金和资产管 理公司。其期权产品的门槛极高，仅向持有1000万美元以上数字货币资产的投资者开放。 就在2025年，该公司的交易量还高达600亿美元。自2018年成立以来，BlockFills的扩张一直得到重量级资本的支 持，包括海纳国际集团（Susquehanna）以及全球最大衍生品交易所CME的企业风险投资部门。 面对此次危机，CME拒绝置评，Susquehanna也未立即回应关于暂停提款的置评请求。这种沉默加剧了市场对于危机 蔓延的担忧。 据英国《金融时报》最新报道，加密货币借贷及流动性提供商BlockFills已暂停客户提款并限制平台交易，这一举动 凸显了近期数字资产市场动荡对机构层面的剧烈冲击。 这家总部位于芝加哥的公司在上周实施了暂停客户存款和取款的措施，截至目前该限制仍未解除。虽然客户仍被 ...

Core Insights - Mistral, a French AI startup, has achieved remarkable growth with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $400 million, a 20-fold increase from $20 million a year ago, positioning itself as "Europe's OpenAI" [1][2] - The company plans to surpass $1 billion in ARR by the end of this year, driven by aggressive expansion among large enterprise clients, now exceeding 100 [1][2] - Mistral is investing €1.2 billion to build a new AI data center in Sweden, marking its first facility outside France, aimed at reducing reliance on external infrastructure [1][3] Vertical Integration and Infrastructure Expansion - Mistral is pursuing a vertical integration strategy by constructing and operating its own AI data centers instead of relying solely on major U.S. cloud providers [3] - The new Swedish facility will provide 23MW of computing power and is expected to be operational next year, leveraging low-carbon and relatively inexpensive local energy [4] - This infrastructure investment is projected to generate over €2 billion in revenue over the next five years, providing a predictable business model [4] Geopolitical Drivers of "Sovereign AI" Demand - There is growing concern in Europe regarding over-reliance on U.S. digital services, with over 80% of digital services and infrastructure depending on foreign providers, primarily American companies [5] - Mistral's position as the only homegrown developer of cutting-edge language models in Europe places it in a favorable position to meet the demand for data sovereignty among clients [5] - Current clients include major corporations and various European governments, with approximately 60% of revenue generated from Europe [5] Financial Position and Future Plans - Mistral's CEO indicated that the company does not require an IPO this year due to sufficient debt financing, although it may consider going public in the future to ensure independence [6] - The company is not currently pursuing an IPO, unlike competitors such as OpenAI and Anthropic, which are preparing for public offerings [5][6] Practical Applications and Market Realities - Despite the rapid growth of products like ChatGPT and Claude, Mistral's CEO expressed a pragmatic view of the market, noting that many enterprise clients are disappointed with off-the-shelf chatbot solutions [7] - There is skepticism regarding the notion that a single system can manage all business processes, emphasizing the continued relevance of traditional software companies that hold critical business data [7] - Mistral warns that startups focused solely on creating user interfaces for specific industries may find their strategies less valuable as AI technology evolves [7]

日经225指数首次涨破58000点。日本30年期、40年期国债收益率集体下行。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in the software sector due to AI threat narratives is exaggerated, according to executives from major financial institutions on Wall Street [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction and Sentiment - The stock prices of major software companies like Salesforce and Adobe plummeted, resulting in the evaporation of hundreds of billions in market value, driven by fears that AI will replace traditional software functions [1]. - Executives from firms such as Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, and KKR have stated that the current market reaction is an "indiscriminate" sell-off, arguing that the belief that all software companies will become obsolete is overly broad and unfounded [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Transformation - Apollo's co-president John Zito emphasized that while the software industry will not disappear, its business logic will change, and the market will experience a "very severe technology cycle" with clear winners and losers [2]. - Zito warned investors against judging software companies solely based on current revenue figures, using the analogy of BlackBerry's decline after the iPhone's release [2]. Group 3: AI's Impact on Subscription Models - The immediate cause of market panic was Anthropic's announcement of a new legal tool for its Cowork assistant, which raised concerns about the fate of various software providers [2][7]. - Software companies are seen as particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on subscription and licensing fees for revenue [7]. Group 4: Differentiation in Market Response - Blackstone's CFO Michael Chae noted that the market's response lacks rationality, predicting that larger, well-established companies will be better protected and may even benefit from AI advancements [8]. - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the narrative surrounding the software sector has been overly generalized [8]. Group 5: Risk Exposure of Financial Institutions - KKR's CFO Robert Lewin indicated that approximately 15% of KKR's private equity investments are exposed to software companies, representing about 7% of their total assets, but emphasized the diversity of their investments as a protective measure [9]. - Goldman Sachs' David Solomon downplayed the risk exposure in software investments, stating it is "insignificant" relative to the overall scale of their platform [9].

Core Insights - Bill Ackman, a prominent hedge fund manager, has bet on Meta's success in the AI race, with his firm Pershing Square establishing a position of approximately $2 billion in Meta, representing 10% of the fund's capital, making it one of the largest holdings in the company [1] - Pershing Square disclosed this investment during its annual investor meeting, having started building the position in November last year at an average cost of $625 per share, amidst concerns over Meta's significant spending in AI, which led to a 13% decline in its stock price over the past six months, creating an entry opportunity for the fund [1] - The fund believes that Meta's business model is one of the clearest beneficiaries of AI integration, enhancing content recommendations and personalized advertising capabilities, and potentially opening new opportunities in wearable devices or enterprise AI digital assistants [1] Investment Strategy - Ackman is known for a highly concentrated investment style, with Pershing Square holding only 13 stocks by the end of 2025, including other large tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon [4] - Recently, the fund has exited two long-term positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill and Hilton Worldwide, reflecting Ackman's preference for a few high-conviction targets rather than a diversified investment strategy [4] - Pershing Square achieved a return of 20.9% last year, outperforming the S&P 500 index by 17.9%, with major contributions from Alphabet, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, although the fund experienced a decline of 2.5% in January of this year [4] Performance and Future Investments - Since the establishment of the position in Meta, the stock has risen by 11%, with an additional 3% increase as of February 9 this year, supporting the overall returns of Pershing Square [5] - In addition to Meta, Pershing Square has made other significant investments in 2025, including a $900 million investment in real estate company Howard Hughes Holdings and up to $1 billion in support for the acquisition of insurance company Vantage Group Holdings [5] - Ackman aims to transform Howard Hughes into a diversified holding company similar to Berkshire Hathaway, indicating a shift in investment vision beyond mere stock selection to deeper corporate value restructuring [5]

华见早安之声 美元日内波动较大，尾盘微涨0.08%。日元三连涨，日内一度升值超1%。 加密货币疲软。比特币跌1.2%，以太坊跌超2%。 现货黄金震荡走高1.3%，白银冲高回落，仍涨逾4%。特朗普私下考虑退出《美墨加协定》，WTI原油涨1%。 亚洲时段，沪指七连阳，创业板跌1%，两市成交不足2万亿，玻璃纤维概念股大爆发，恒科指涨近1%，小米涨超4%。 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 美国1月非农报告整体强劲，打压市场的降息预期，交易员将首次降息的预期时间从6月推迟至7月，美债跌。 美股高开，但随后因大型科技股走弱而回吐涨幅，三大美股指收盘微跌。AI颠覆担忧仍在发酵，软件股ETF跌2.6%，房地产服务类股也因AI担忧而遭到抛 售，CBRE集团和Jones Lang LaSalle暴跌12%。 美债收益率走高，2年期美债收益率上行6.4个基点，10年期收益率上涨约3个基点。 美国2026财年前四个月预算赤字缩小17%，关税收入大增。美国会预算办公室：特朗普财政路径不可持续，未来十年美赤字预期提高1.4万亿美 元。 要闻 中国 李强：全面推进人工智能科技创新、产业发展和赋能应用，培 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of real estate service companies have significantly declined as investors reassess the vulnerability of these firms to artificial intelligence applications and tools [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On Wednesday, CBRE Group and Jones Lang LaSalle saw their stock prices plummet by 12%, while Cushman & Wakefield dropped by 14%, marking the largest single-day declines since the market sell-off in 2020 [1]. - Analysts from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods noted that investors are withdrawing from high-fee, labor-intensive business models perceived as susceptible to AI-driven disruption [3]. - Barclays analyst Brendan Lynch described the stock price drop as "excessive," attributing part of the selling pressure to concerns over AI's potential disruption to the job market and commercial real estate demand [5]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The commercial real estate sector is facing additional challenges, having struggled to recover since the pandemic, with changes in office demand and high interest rates severely limiting transaction volumes [4]. - Despite the AI boom providing growth opportunities in certain segments, such as data centers and high-end office leasing, investors are weighing whether advancements in AI will ultimately pressure some business operations through automation and streamlined processes [4]. - CBRE and Jones Lang LaSalle have been attempting to mitigate the impact of market downturns by expanding their services into property management, valuation, and investment sales across various sectors, including hotels, warehousing, apartments, and life sciences laboratories [4]. Group 3: Long-term Perspectives - Analysts believe that the immediate concerns regarding AI's threat to leasing and capital markets are limited, as CBRE and its peers benefit from significant scale advantages, including data and industry relationships [6]. - While there is a consensus that the market's fears regarding immediate AI risks may be overstated, there remains a cautious outlook on the long-term implications of AI [6].