Core Viewpoint - Alphabet's issuance of a £1 billion century bond is seen as a sign of excessive optimism in the credit cycle, particularly in the context of AI infrastructure financing [1][2] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - This is Alphabet's first foray into ultra-long bonds denominated in pounds, part of a broader $20 billion multi-currency financing plan [1] - The century bond attracted nearly 10 times the subscription, with a coupon 120 basis points above the 10-year UK government bond [1][2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Bill Blain from Wind Shift Capital views the bond issuance as indicative of a market bubble, given the historically low credit spreads and uncertain long-term demand for data centers [2] - The rapid technological changes in the industry may create winners and losers, further complicating the outlook for such long-term financing [2] Group 3: Strategic Financing Approach - Alphabet's choice to issue bonds in the UK market aligns with the liability matching needs of UK insurance and pension funds, while also diversifying its funding sources to avoid saturation in the dollar market [3] - The issuance of century bonds places high demands on the issuer's long-term survival and innovation capabilities, as such offerings are rare even among governments [3]

周三，美财政部长贝森特在与参议院共和党议员的闭门会议中，同意将针对美联储主席鲍威尔的调查权 限由司法部转移至参议院银行委员会。据媒体援引知情人士报道，此举旨在争取参议员Thom Tillis放弃 对沃什出任美联储主席的提名阻挠。 Tillis此前已明确表示，除非司法部撤销对鲍威尔的调查，否则他将否决任何美联储人事任命投票。这 一立场直接阻碍了特朗普提名的前美联储理事沃什接任鲍威尔的进程。 尽管如此，怀疑论者仍认为Tillis让步的可能性不大。贝森特在会议中强调推进听证程序的紧迫性，据 上述议员透露，贝森特表示"希望尽早举行听证会，以便新主席能够尽快就位"。 但该议员同时指出，若特朗普希望加快进程，"他将不得不亲自致电联邦检察官，直接要求其退出"。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 自特朗普上月提名沃什接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席以来，参议员Thom Tillis始终坚守其反对立场。据媒 体援引一位共和党议员称： "Tillis在其立场上极为明确且公开 ...

Core Insights - Bernstein conducted an extreme scenario stress test on Oracle, estimating a valuation floor of $137 per share, indicating a 15% downside from the current level of approximately $160, providing a clear margin of safety for investors [1] - In an optimistic scenario, if execution goes smoothly, the target price could rise to $313, highlighting a strong asymmetric risk-reward profile [1] Customer Concentration and Capital Expenditure Concerns - Bernstein addressed market concerns regarding customer concentration and capital expenditure, particularly related to AI clients like OpenAI, suggesting that fears are overvalued [1] - The report indicates that even if all AI contracts fail to convert into revenue, Oracle's core database, SaaS, and non-AI OCI businesses would continue to grow normally [1] Lease Liabilities Analysis - Bernstein analyzed Oracle's $248 billion lease liabilities, arguing that the risk of clients defaulting is significantly overstated [2] - The long-term nature of these leases (15 to 19 years) means that the maximum annual risk exposure is only $13 to $16.5 billion, peaking in FY2030 [2] - The global demand for data centers is expected to remain high, allowing Oracle to utilize or sublease any idle space [2] Hardware Capital Expenditure Risks - Bernstein noted that the actual exposure to hardware capital expenditure risks is limited, as Oracle can cancel or delay orders without incurring significant penalties [3] - Most computing assets are highly versatile and can be repurposed for traditional SaaS and OCI businesses, mitigating risks associated with client cancellations [3] Core Business Fundamentals - The report highlights Oracle's core business value, projecting total revenue of $101 billion by FY2030, even without AI-related income [4] - After accounting for interest costs from debt incurred for AI infrastructure, the estimated earnings per share (EPS) could still reach $9.00, suggesting a valuation of $137 per share based on industry peers' price-to-earnings ratios [4] Financial Projections - Oracle's total revenue is projected to grow from $50 billion in FY23 to $221 billion by FY30, with a notable increase in revenue from AI expected to reach $120 billion by FY30 [5] - The operating income is expected to grow from $13.2 billion in FY23 to $39.8 billion by FY30, indicating a strong upward trend in profitability [5] Valuation Comparisons - Oracle's projected EPS growth rate of 18.2% positions it favorably against peers like Microsoft and SAP, with a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio of 27.3x suggesting a stock price of $137 excluding AI revenue [6] - Bernstein believes that Oracle's current stock price reflects overly pessimistic expectations, presenting an attractive risk-reward ratio for investors [6]

美国1月非农就业数据全线超预期，但机构普遍认为，在年度基准修正揭示去年就业虚高、行业增长高度集中的背景下，劳动力市场修复 基础仍不牢固。 银河证券指出，1月就业增长仍高度集中于医疗等少数行业，结构性特征未见改善，景气持续性有待观察。华泰证券维持美联储6月前暂 停降息的判断，称就业市场下行风险虽有所缓解，但数据改善的可持续性仍需进一步验证。 数据发布后，市场对2026年全年降息的定价收窄8个基点至52个基点，2年期与10年期美债收益率分别上行7个基点和5个基点。分析师认 为，1月数据为联储"按兵不动"提供新的佐证，但并未实质性改变政策路径。 就业增长集中于少数行业 华泰证券表示，1月就业增量仍集中于医疗、零售、建筑等少数行业，景气持续性有待观察。国联民生证券进一步指出，就业复苏的行业 广度依然不足，1月新增就业几乎全部来自医疗保健及社会援助领域，这一结构特征或制约整体生产力修复空间。 具体来看，1月私人部门新增非农就业录得17.2万人，创2025年以来单月新高，但行业分布高度不均。服务部门贡献13.6万人，其中医疗 保健行业单月新增12.4万人，较去年四季度月均5.2万人的水平大幅跳升；零售业增幅有限，休闲酒店 ...

Core Insights - Luckin Coffee has rapidly expanded to 30,000 stores in just one and a half years, significantly raising the bar for coffee market scale in China [1] - The company is shifting its strategy by opening high-end flagship stores, indicating a move towards a "big store model" to capture social demand and fill gaps in the "slow scene" market [2] - Luckin Coffee is focusing on penetrating the low coffee penetration county markets through a strategic partnership with the Supply and Marketing Cooperative Group, leveraging its extensive network [3] Expansion Strategy - Luckin Coffee's new "Origin Flagship Store" spans 420 square meters and features semi-automatic machines and specialized menus, showcasing a high-end positioning [2] - The company has entered 1,550 county-level cities, covering over 80% of county areas, with more than 7,400 stores in these regions [17] - The expansion from 20,000 to 30,000 stores has primarily involved increasing store density in existing provinces rather than entering new cities [12] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new entrants like Lucky Coffee and Nova Coffee joining the market, indicating that the low-tier market still has untapped potential [8] - The partnership with Supply and Marketing Cooperative Group is seen as a strategic move to enhance resource integration and achieve efficient market penetration [10] - The competition in county markets is intensifying, with brands like Lucky Coffee and Gu Ming establishing strong footholds [18] Supply Chain and Operational Efficiency - Luckin Coffee is enhancing its supply chain capabilities by securing high-quality coffee bean sources and expanding its production capacity, including a new factory in Xiamen with an annual roasting capacity of 55,000 tons [26][27] - The company aims to build a comprehensive supply chain system to maintain cost advantages while competing in the county market [28] - The collaboration with Supply and Marketing Cooperative Group focuses on three dimensions: co-building coffee spaces, channel penetration, and supply chain integration [10] Market Dynamics - The shift towards county markets is driven by the need for growth as urban markets become saturated [11] - The coffee consumption landscape in lower-tier cities is different, with social interactions being a key driver rather than just a need for caffeine [21] - The pricing strategy may need to adapt to local market conditions, moving away from extreme low pricing to enhance the perceived value of the coffee experience [23]

地区表现上，美洲（主要为美国）成为最大亮点，四季度销售按不变汇率增长12.1%，显著超出市场对约9%增速的预期；日本需求同样强劲，继续支撑集团 在全球范围内的韧性增长。 产品结构方面，贡献主要利润的皮具与马具部门（涵盖Birkin、Kelly等核心品类）有机增长14.6%，再度跑在集团平均增速之前，显示"稀缺供给+强品牌 力"的商业模式在放缓周期中更具防御性。 盈利能力也继续抬升：公司全年营业利润达65.7亿欧元（约合77.9亿美元），营业利润率41%，小幅高于市场预期的40%。同时，爱马仕宣布将派发每股18 欧元股息。管理层表示将"带着信心"进入2026年，但今年提价幅度预计降至5%-6%，低于2025年的6%-7%。 爱马仕在奢侈品行业整体降温的背景下，受益于超高净值客群（对通胀与宏观波动敏感度更低）以及较长的订单积压，再次交出一份"稳中偏强"的成绩单。 2月12日，法国奢侈品巨头爱马仕发布2025年第四季度及全年财报，公司四季度营收按不变汇率增长9.8%，不仅延续了稳定增速，也高于Visible Alpha汇总 的分析师一致预期（8.4%）。 收入端：四季度9.8%按不变汇率增长，继续"逆风稳跑" 本次 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Lenovo Group's Q3 performance report indicates a revenue of $22.2 billion for the three months ending December 31, 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth, while net profit declined by over 20% to $546 million [1] - The smart devices business saw a revenue increase of 14% year-on-year, and AI-related revenue surged by 72%, now accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - Despite strong revenue growth, Lenovo faced pressure on the cost side, with gross margin declining by 0.6 percentage points to 15.1% [1] Group 2 - Lenovo's CEO emphasized the company's "scale moat," stating that despite supply chain disruptions due to rising storage prices, Lenovo's scale advantage allows it to secure sufficient supply and competitive pricing in its PC, mobile, and server businesses [2] - It is anticipated that PC sales in 2026 may remain flat or slightly decline; however, due to rising average selling prices, revenue in the sales market is expected to grow [2] - Lenovo is confident in maintaining double-digit growth in the coming quarters through its supply chain, operations, and technological product innovations [2] Group 3 - The overall situation in the consumer hardware sector suggests that price increases for end products may lead to a decline in sales volume, which is becoming an industry consensus [4] - The mobile sector is also experiencing similar trends, with rumors of Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion lowering their shipment forecasts [5] - The impending rise in upstream storage prices is expected to further squeeze profit margins for hardware manufacturers, making the ability to offset costs through price increases and supply chain scale advantages a key competitive factor [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Meet in the Wilderness" event organized by Wall Street Watch will take place from March 4 to 6, 2026, at Changbai Mountain, featuring discussions on global market trends and asset allocation for 2026 with prominent economists and industry leaders [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The event will include the 2026 Changbai Mountain Forum, where attendees can hear insights from key figures in politics, business, and academia [2][12]. - Notable speakers include renowned economist Fu Peng, Li Yang from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Cao Jingnan from Dongfang Securities [2][12]. - The event will also feature a closed-door discussion on "Global Macro and Asset Allocation Trends for 2026" led by Fu Peng, who has over ten years of experience in hedge funds [12][16]. Group 2: Key Dates and Activities - The schedule includes arrival on March 4, participation in the forum on March 5, and a skiing event on March 6 [9][11][14]. - A networking dinner and closed-door sharing sessions will provide opportunities for in-depth discussions on pressing global economic issues [12][16]. - Additional activities include skiing at the "Golden Snow Trail" and enjoying the facilities at the Changbai Mountain Wanda Water Park [18][28]. Group 3: Participant Profile - Approximately 20 high-net-worth individuals, primarily business owners and financial executives, are expected to attend the event [7][8]. - The event aims to facilitate networking and knowledge sharing among participants, enhancing their understanding of current asset allocation trends [26][28].

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming masterclass titled "Understanding Gold, Silver, and Copper: A New Paradigm for Global Metal Pricing," led by Chen Dapeng, a seasoned investment manager and founder of KP Research [1][12] - The masterclass aims to provide insights into the underlying logic of current market trends and the impact of global changes on asset allocation [1][15] Group 1: Market Trends and Insights - Chen Dapeng emphasizes the importance of understanding the shift in metal pricing from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security amid global restructuring [13][20] - The course will explore how gold's pricing power has transformed from being a "credit of the dollar" to a "sovereign credit defense line" [13] - The new paradigm for non-ferrous metals pricing will be analyzed, particularly in relation to traditional industrial output cycles and the constraints imposed by "resource nationalism" [13] Group 2: Course Structure and Content - The masterclass will cover five core modules, including the iteration of global resource pricing paradigms and the implications of strategic redundancy logic [13][20] - Participants will learn to construct a framework that combines macroeconomic and geopolitical analysis to identify the value of metal allocations driven by resource nationalism and AI strategies [20][21] - The course will also focus on practical trading insights, helping participants develop a trading dashboard to navigate the market changes expected in 2026 [21]

2月12日，国家市场监督管理总局正式发布《汽车行业价格行为合规指南》（下文简称为《指南》）， 明确指出"实际出厂价格低于其生产成本"存在重大法律风险。该指南已于2月9日经总局局务会议通过， 自发布之日起施行。 对此，全国乘用车市场信息联席会秘书长崔东树表示，规范汽车行业价格将推动汽车行业高质量发展， 对汽车品牌的培育提升有巨大促进意义，也将推动汽车行业从"卷价格"转向"卷品质"。从短期来看，崔 东树认为，消费者对汽车价格十分敏感，"卷价格"会让消费者形成"等降价"的思维惯性。而对价格的规 范，将为消费者创造一个放心购物的环境，有助于改善购车观望情绪。 "实际出厂价格低于其生产成本"存在重大法律风险 《指南》第十条明确列举了九种"存在重大法律风险"，"以排挤竞争对手或者独占市场为目的""使实际 出厂价格低于其生产成本"的价格行为。 市场监管总局在公告中强调，当前，汽车行业存在不按规定明码标价、价格欺诈等违法行为，损害消费 者和经营者利益，破坏公平竞争市场秩序，不利于行业高质量发展。《指南》立足当前汽车行业发展实 际，进一步明晰行为边界，统一监管规则，引导汽车生产和销售企业依法合规经营，推动形成优质优 价、良性竞 ...