2月11日，智谱正式推出新一代旗舰模型GLM-5，主攻编程与智能体能力，官方称已实现开源领域最优 表现。这是继DeepSeek后，国产AI大模型春节档的又一重要发布。 GLM-5参数规模由上一代的355B扩展至744B，激活参数从32B提升至40B。智谱方面证实，此前在全球 模型服务平台OpenRouter登顶热度榜首的神秘模型"Pony Alpha"即为GLM-5。 架构配置方面，GLM-5构建78层隐藏层，集成256个专家模块，每次激活8个，激活参数约44B，稀疏度 5.9%，上下文窗口最高支持202K token。 编程能力显著提升 新一代旗舰模型GLM-5在内部Claude Code评估集中表现突出。前端、后端及长程任务等编程开发场景 下，该模型较上一代GLM-4.7实现全面超越，平均性能提升逾20%。 GLM-5能够以极少人工干预，自主完成Agentic长程规划与执行、后端重构、深度调试等复杂系统工程 任务。官方称，真实编程环境中的使用体感已逼近Claude Opus 4.5水平。 智谱将GLM-5定位为最新一代旗舰级对话、编程与智能体模型，重点强化其在复杂系统工程与长程 Agent任务中的处理能力 ...

本周英镑兑美元出现反弹，兑欧元亦收复部分失地。此前的跌势由斯塔默团队一名高级成员辞职触发，政治不确定性再度浮出水面。鉴于英镑年 内涨幅主要来自美元走弱的被动支撑，多家机构认为，通过欧元兑英镑表达对英国风险敞口，是当前更具效率的交易方式。 花旗集团策略师警告，英镑面临的最大考验将在未来两个月到来。届时英国政局不确定性与英国央行降息预期将形成共振，对英镑构成显著下行 压力。 该行策略师Daniel Tobon表示，尽管市场过去一周已"初步感知"这两大风险，但真正的下行风险窗口将于5月初地方选举前夕开启。民调显示，首 相斯塔默所在党派或面临压力，其领导地位已受动摇，政治不确定性料进一步升温。 与此同时，英国央行预计将在未来数月重启降息。上周该行以出人意料的微弱优势决定维持利率不变，但市场普遍认为宽松周期尚未终结。 政治与货币政策风险交织 花旗策略师Daniel Tobon指出，政治不确定性与货币政策宽松是当前做空英镑的两大核心逻辑，而这两大主题将在4月至5月间形成交汇，届时英镑 将迎来"更大幅度的反应"。他称： "现在认真押注这些情景还为时过早，4月和5月是这些主题汇聚的时刻，那才是我们想要参与的窗口。" 期权市场 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国国会预算办公室（CBO）警告称，特朗普的财政路径不可持续，将未来十年的美国赤字预期提高 1.4万亿美元。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

日元近期剧烈波动正引发市场警惕。日元在经历了一段时间的疲软后开始走强，美元兑日元技术指标显示其已跌破100日均线，正测试自去年4月 以来的长期趋势线。若决定性下破，将为挑战200日均线打开空间，目标直指150.50关口。 分析指出，这一技术性突破恐非孤立事件。历史经验表明，日元的趋势性波动往往先行于全球风险资产的共振调整。BCA研究指出，过去三次主 要日元套利交易（YCT）解除，均由"套利资产"承压触发，而非利差收窄驱动，且均伴随全球波动率指标全线飙升。 当前若日元升值动能延续，套利头寸的集中平仓可能迅速向跨资产市场传导。风险传导路径上，纳斯达克100指数、美债波动率指标MOVE及VIX 恐慌指数或依次承压。日元的"技术破位"正在成为全球资产变盘的前置信号。 | | 5m | 15m | | 30m 1H 1W | 1M | | रे | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 160.00 | | | | | | | | | 155.00 | | | | | | | | | 150.00 | | | | | | | | | 1m 145.00/ ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ experienced a significant decline in oil production in January, primarily due to supply disruptions from Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran, but maintains a long-term positive outlook for the global oil market [1][3] - The total daily production of OPEC+ fell to 42.448 million barrels in January, a decrease of 439,000 barrels from the previous month, with Kazakhstan accounting for over half of this reduction [1][2] - Despite the supply fluctuations, OPEC has kept its forecasts for global oil supply and demand for this year and next unchanged, indicating that the production decline is driven by short-term factors rather than structural changes in demand [1][4] Group 2 - Kazakhstan's oil output was the main contributor to the significant drop in OPEC+ production, with the Tengiz oil field's operations being suspended, although production is expected to gradually resume [2] - Geopolitical factors continue to restrict oil exports from Venezuela and Iran, with Venezuela facing U.S. sanctions and Iran's oil industry being suppressed by ongoing U.S. restrictions, which are key drivers of the production reduction [3] - Core OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, maintained stable production levels in January, and the focus is now on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on March 1, where production quotas for April and beyond will be reviewed [4]

美国1月失业率 4.3%，预期 4.4%，前值 4.4%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

被视为"欧洲版OpenAI"的法国人工智能初创公司Mistral正通过一项重大的跨境投资，加速构建欧洲本土 的AI计算能力，此举不仅标志着这家独角兽企业战略重心的扩展，也凸显了欧洲在地缘政治紧张局势 下寻求科技主权的迫切需求。 据CNBC报道，Mistral周三宣布将投入12亿欧元（约合14.3亿美元）在瑞典建设数字基础设施，重点包 括人工智能数据中心、先进计算能力以及本地化的AI功能开发。这是Mistral在其本土市场法国以外进行 的首个AI基础设施投资，预计新设施将于2027年投入运营，届时将支持该公司下一代AI模型的开发与 运行。 作为投资计划的一部分，Mistral将与瑞典公司EcoDataCenter合作部署"大规模"AI计算能力。北欧地区凭 借较低的能源成本和利于散热的寒冷气候，正成为欧洲计算设施的首选地。此前，OpenAI也于去年7月 宣布作为其"Stargate"计划的一部分，将在挪威启动AI数据中心项目。 Mistral首席执行官Arthur Mensch表示，此项投资是建立欧洲独立AI能力的具体步骤，旨在通过提供数 据本地处理和存储的全垂直服务，加强欧洲的战略自主权和竞争力。这也为服务于工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential withdrawal of the United States from the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is being evaluated by President Trump, creating significant uncertainty in the ongoing negotiations among the three countries, which cover approximately $2 trillion in trade and services [1][2]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The current negotiation landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with bilateral talks taking place, and Mexico being described as "quite pragmatic," while discussions with Canada are more challenging [2][4]. - The mandatory review deadline of July 1 is approaching, which could lead to either a 16-year extension of the agreement or trigger a ten-year annual review mechanism until 2036 if no consensus is reached [4]. - Trump has pressured both Canada and Mexico for concessions beyond trade, including issues related to immigration and national defense, indicating a preference for bilateral agreements [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Any move to exit the agreement could destabilize one of the world's largest trade relationships, potentially leading to the re-establishment of tariff barriers and increased inflationary pressures [2][6]. - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and lawmakers are likely to oppose any withdrawal, as higher tariffs could exacerbate inflation and affordability issues, particularly sensitive ahead of the midterm elections [6]. Group 3: Trump's Negotiation Strategy - Trump's inquiries to advisors about the potential exit reflect his negotiation style, which often uses threats as leverage to secure better deals rather than indicating a definitive intention to withdraw [7]. - Despite previously being a negotiator for the agreement, Trump's views on North American trade relations have shifted, leading to unpredictability in his approach [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes the market has significantly underestimated the current shortage of memory chips, driven by the AI supercycle, making traditional cyclical valuation frameworks obsolete. Micron is at a sweet spot of both profitability and valuation expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Pricing Power and Profitability - The current tightness in the memory chip market is underestimated, with both DRAM and NAND prices expected to rise significantly in Q1 and Q2 of 2026. Micron's guidance suggests a 37% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, with an implied average selling price (ASP) increase of about 30% [2]. - Competitors are also seeing substantial price increases, with SanDisk projecting a 60% ASP increase for NAND, while teams covering Samsung and Hynix predict DRAM price increases of 48% and 55% respectively [2]. - Morgan Stanley projects Micron's earnings per share (EPS) to reach $52.53 in the calendar year 2026, indicating a significant increase in profitability [7]. Group 2: Valuation Logic - The current market valuation of Micron is considered extremely low, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8 times the projected earnings of $48. This is significantly below the peak profitability levels seen in previous cycles [8]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its cross-cycle EPS estimate from $14 to $18, which, when multiplied by a 25x P/E ratio, leads to a new target price of $450 for Micron [9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The AI-driven structural supply-demand imbalance is a key factor supporting this supercycle, with manufacturers' inventories at historically low levels. Even with premium pricing, customers struggle to secure sufficient supply [10]. - Demand is expected to surge, with Nvidia projecting an additional $30 billion in quarterly revenue by 2026, and the entire storage industry facing nearly $200 billion in annualized incremental revenue needs over the next 12 months [10]. Group 4: Market Concerns Addressed - Concerns regarding the impact of Chinese memory chip companies and HBM4 production issues are deemed exaggerated by Morgan Stanley. Micron is on track to begin HBM4 mass production in Q2 2026, and any potential challenges in ramping up HBM4 production will not negatively impact profitability due to the continued dominance of HBM3e in the market [11].

刚果民主共和国2025年铜出口量同比增长近10%至340万吨，进一步巩固其全球第二大铜生产国地位，仅次于智利。这一增长主要由外资企业主导 的矿山扩产推动，为承受供应压力的全球铜市场提供了关键缓冲。 根据刚果政府在开普敦矿业会议上发布的初步数据，2025年该国铜出口量自2024年的310万吨增至340万吨。外资矿企占据其铜产量主体，其中 Tenke Fungurume矿与Kisanfu项目全年产量分别达51.9万吨和22.8万吨。 产能扩张正为紧缺的全球铜市注入供应。过去一年，铜价累计上涨40%，并于2026年1月底突破14500美元/吨，创下历史新高。价格上涨背后是全 球矿山事故频发与运营中断，叠加清洁能源转型及人工智能发展所驱动的结构性需求攀升。 Ivanhoe Mines创始人兼联席董事长Robert Friedland本周表示 "刚果将成为世界铜产量领导者。" 智利仍以美国地质调查局估测的530万吨年产量稳居全球榜首。但刚果近年来排名迅速跃升，已超越秘鲁与中国，其对全球供应的贡献在过去十年 增长逾两倍。 供应紧张推动铜价创新高 与之形成反差的是，刚果2025年钴出口量骤降近80%至4.45万吨，主因政府 ...