Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is currently characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a bearish trend in methanol futures prices, with the 2601 contract price falling to around 2100 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Production - Domestic methanol production capacity has steadily increased, reaching 112.55 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, with production rising to 91.82 million tons, up 9.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average operating rate for methanol plants remains high at 84.63%, with a month-on-month increase of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 2.35% [2]. - Weekly average methanol production has reached 1.9921 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 96,300 tons [2]. Import Dynamics - Methanol imports remain elevated, with September 2025 imports at 1.4269 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 332,900 tons but a year-on-year increase of 178,100 tons [3]. - Despite temporary production halts in Iran, overall supply expectations remain robust, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [3]. Demand and Inventory Pressure - The demand side for methanol is weak, particularly in the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector, which faces risks of declining operating rates [4]. - Traditional downstream industries, such as formaldehyde, are operating at around 30% capacity, contributing to the overall weak demand [4]. - As of November 7, methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 1.2861 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 251,800 tons, indicating a growing inventory pressure that constrains price recovery [4]. - The current inventory situation, especially in coastal ports, has reached historically high levels, exacerbating downward pressure on the market [4].

意见提出，到2030年，协同高效的多层次新能源消纳调控体系基本建立，持续保障新能源顺利接网、多 元利用、高效运行，新增用电量需求主要由新增新能源发电满足。满足全国每年新增2亿千瓦以上新能 源合理消纳需求，助力实现碳达峰目标。到2035年，适配高比例新能源的新型电力系统基本建成，新能 源消纳调控体系进一步完善。 在完善促进新能源消纳的全国统一电力市场体系方面，意见提出，拓展多层次新能源消纳市场化体系。 适应新能源出力波动特点，缩短中长期交易周期，实现灵活连续交易，推广多年期购电协议机制，稳定 长期消纳空间。充分发挥现货市场功能，加强与需求侧响应机制等的衔接，引导系统调节资源主动参与 调节，完善用户侧参与现货市场交易机制，激发用户侧灵活调节潜力。（齐宣） 本报讯 11月10日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见，从六个方面 提出了22条具体意见，促进新能源在大规模开发的同时实现高质量消纳。 ...

本报讯（记者 杨美）国内成品油零售价迎来今年第七次上调。据国家发展改革委网站消息，近期国际 市场油价波动运行，自11月10日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上涨125元和120 元，折合92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升均上调0.1元。 库存方面，上周美国商业原油库存增幅超预期，但汽油去库幅度较大，显示汽油需求强劲。杜冰沁认 为，近期油品市场呈现成品油强于原油的结构，短期油价或延续震荡走势。 光大期货能源化工分析师杜冰沁表示，近期油价整体呈区间震荡。从供给端看，欧佩克+在最新会议上 决定将12月产量目标上调13.7万桶/日，延续10月和11月的渐进式增产模式，同时宣布2026年1月至3月暂 停增产。最新产量数据显示，欧佩克10月原油产量2843万桶/日，较9月增加3万桶/日，增速放缓。其 中，俄罗斯上月平均产量941.1万桶/日，较9月增加4.3万桶/日。 卓创资讯成品油分析师戴田东表示，未来市场将关注美国石油需求淡季之后的原油累库情况，同时，南 美局势可控，宏观因素主导作用降低，预计下周期国际油价或延续窄幅波动行情。按照当前原油价格测 算，新周期内原油变化率或呈负值开局，对应下调幅度或在 ...

Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's gold production reached 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year-on-year [1] - Gold consumption in China during the same period was 682.730 tons, reflecting a decline of 7.95% compared to the previous year [1] Production and Consumption - The production of gold in China has shown a slight increase, indicating stable mining operations despite market fluctuations [1] - The decline in gold consumption suggests a potential shift in consumer behavior or economic conditions affecting purchasing power [1] Market Trends - Different categories of gold products have exhibited varying performance, with high-value jewelry products maintaining strong market appeal and good sales [1] - Demand for gold bars remains robust, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, highlighting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [1] - The rapid development of industries such as electronics and renewable energy has led to a steady recovery in industrial gold demand [1] Investment Trends - Domestic gold ETFs saw an increase in holdings of 79.015 tons in the first three quarters, a significant rise of 164.03% year-on-year [1] - As of September 30, 2024, the total holdings in domestic gold ETFs reached 193.749 tons, indicating growing investor interest in gold as an investment vehicle [1] Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have been consistently increasing their gold reserves, with China having added 23.95 tons of gold from November 2024 to September 2025 [1] - As of September 30, 2025, China's total gold reserves stood at 2303.52 tons, reflecting a strategic move to bolster national reserves [1]

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特警告称，目前美国的货物运输速度放缓。由于政府持续"停摆"，该部门"最 终可能会出现短缺问题，无论是供应链环节还是节假日期间"。 期货日报网讯（记者 肖佳煊）据央视新闻报道，当地时间11月9日晚，在美国联邦政府"停摆"40天之 际，美国总统特朗普在返回白宫时对媒体表示，"看起来我们离结束'停摆'已经很近了"。 据悉，由于美国会参议院9月30日先后否决两党拨款法案，当地时间10月1日0时1分，美国联邦政府近7 年以来再次关门，数十万联邦雇员不得不面临强制休假或被裁员，众多联邦部门的服务也"停摆"。 当地时间11月9日晚，美国国会参议院将就一项众议院已通过的法案推进投票，但该法案将进行修正， 把短期拨款措施（可为联邦政府提供资金至2026年1月）与三项全年拨款法案打包。目前这一法案已获 得足够多的民主党参议员支持，可在表决中获得通过。不过，据参议院多数党领袖、共和党人约翰·图 恩表示，修正后的拨款方案仍需经众议院通过，并送交特朗普签署，这一流程可能需要几天时间。 贝森特表示，由于政府"停摆"，经济"每况愈下"。据悉，此次政府"停摆"已持续40天，是联邦政府"停 摆"时间最长的一次。在政府" ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Transport announced the suspension of special port fees for U.S. vessels and related investigations for one year, effective from November 10, 2025, at 13:01 Beijing time [1] - This decision aligns with the consensus reached during the 2025 China-U.S. Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations, approved by the State Council [1] - The suspension includes the implementation of various announcements related to maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce decided to suspend countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Corporation for one year, starting from November 10, 2025 [3] - This decision follows the U.S. announcement on November 9, 2025, to suspend its 301 investigations into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [3] - The suspension is based on the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law and its implementation regulations [3]

近日，多家焦化企业发布提价函，期货日报记者发现，前期焦化企业已经进行了三轮提价，此次是第四轮提价，行业人士认为，本轮提价落地的可能性很 大。 近日，多家焦化企业发布提价函。期货日报记者发现，前期焦化企业已经进行了三轮提价，此次是第四轮提价。行业人士认为，本轮提价落地的可能性很 大。 旭阳营销有限公司 尊敬的焦炭客户: 感谢贵公司多年来对我公司的支持与帮助! 近期原料煤价格持续大幅上涨,焦化企业陷入全行业 深度亏损的境地,根据当前市场情况,经研究决定,自11 月 10 日起湿熄焦上调50元/吨、干熄焦上调 55 元/吨。 顺致商祺! 官 销 有限公 焦炭销售价格通知函 致各焦炭采购单位: 首先衷心感谢各单位一直以来对我公司的信任与支持!我公司始 终坚持平等合作、互惠互利的原则。 近期,焦煤价格持续上涨,焦化企业亏损加剧。为保障焦炭产品 品质及供应,更好地满足合作客户用量需求,经集团公司研究决定: 从 2025 年 11月 10日 0 时起,湿熄焦上调 50元/吨、干熄焦上调 55 元/吨! 特此函告 "四季度焦炭价格可能提涨4到5轮。焦炭价格提涨的主要原因是焦煤价格持续上涨，焦化企业普遍亏损，需要提涨焦炭价格修 ...

据新华社电 匈牙利外交部长西雅尔多·彼得8日重申，美国方面对于匈牙利从俄罗斯购买石油和天然气的 制裁豁免"没有期限"。不过，美国白宫一名官员同一天说，对匈牙利的制裁豁免"只有一年"。 不过，白宫一名官员8日在发给路透社的电子邮件中重申，给予匈方的豁免有效期为一年。 这名白宫官员还透露，匈牙利方面准备使其能源采购来源多元化，且已经承诺购买美国的液化天然气， 合同价值约6亿美元。 西雅尔多在社交媒体脸书上写道，匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托"说得很清楚"，"我们已经获得了（美方） 制裁的无限期豁免"。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is unlikely to lower interest rates again during his term, which ends in May 2026, contrasting with market expectations for a rate cut in December [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is complicated by the ongoing government shutdown, which has delayed the release of key economic data, including the October CPI [2][3] - Alternative data suggests a cooling labor market without severe deterioration, providing a rationale for the Fed to pause rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's target for the federal funds rate is projected to remain between 3.75% and 4.0% until late 2025, with potential cuts only starting in the second half of 2026 under a new chair [3] - The government shutdown has reportedly caused a 1.5% decline in U.S. GDP, with potential negative impacts on fourth-quarter economic growth if it continues [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 66.5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 33.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in coking coal prices is leading to increased losses for coking enterprises, prompting a need to raise coking prices to restore profitability [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From November 10, 2025, the price of wet quenching coke will increase by 50 yuan per ton, and dry quenching coke will increase by 55 yuan per ton [1]. - Analysts predict that there may be 4 to 5 rounds of price increases for coking coal due to ongoing price pressures [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply of coking coal and coke is tight, with downstream procurement being active, resulting in a short-term supply-demand imbalance [2]. - As of October, the total social inventory of coke has decreased by 2% year-on-year, while the total inventory of coking coal has decreased by 5% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Production Challenges - Certain coal mines in Shanxi are experiencing production declines due to safety issues, and overall coal mine operating rates are expected to remain low through the end of the year [3]. - The import volume of coal from Mongolia has significantly decreased, with a 21.3% drop in daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu port compared to September [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The futures market for coking coal and coke is experiencing high volatility, with differing opinions on future trends among industry participants [4]. - The market is currently characterized by a balance between supply constraints and weak steel demand, which may lead to increased price fluctuations [5].