Core Viewpoint - The successful completion of the first contract for propylene futures (PL2601) marks a significant step for China's propylene industry, transitioning from "scale advantage" to "pricing advantage" through effective risk management and pricing reference tools [1] Group 1: Delivery Process and Participation - The delivery process showcased high industry participation and efficiency, with a total registered warehouse receipt volume of 28,800 tons from three production warehouses in Shandong [1] - A total of 1,500 tons were delivered, involving two production companies and one trading company, highlighting the practical value of futures tools for real business operations [1][2] - The delivery process was smooth and exceeded expectations, aided by detailed guidance from the exchange, ensuring seamless connections in registration, matching, and payment processes [2][3] Group 2: Price Discovery Mechanism - The effective functioning of the price discovery mechanism was a highlight, with the basis narrowing from -148 yuan/ton on November 4 to -22 yuan/ton by December 31, indicating a good convergence of futures and spot prices [1] - This convergence provides a reliable basis for enterprises to engage in hedging and basis trading, validating the scientific design and practicality of the propylene futures delivery rules [1] Group 3: Industry Insights and Future Plans - Companies involved in the delivery, such as Shandong Binhua New Materials and Jinneng Chemical, emphasized the importance of futures for stabilizing operations and managing risks, with futures prices being a more authoritative benchmark than spot prices [2][3] - The experience gained from the first delivery will be utilized to optimize inventory management and stabilize production operations in the future [3][4] - The propylene futures market is expected to further assist the industry in converting "scale advantages" into "pricing advantages" as participation increases and services are optimized [4][5] Group 4: Market Context and Future Developments - Propylene is a core product in the chemical industry, widely used across various sectors, and China's propylene production capacity ranks first globally [5] - The futures and options for propylene are set to enhance the derivative product system in the energy and chemical sector, addressing the urgent risk management needs of industry chain enterprises [5] - The exchange plans to optimize delivery warehouse layouts and enhance training for industry participants to improve their engagement with the futures market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply to achieve a dynamic balance and virtuous cycle in the economy, emphasizing the need for a new economic development model driven by domestic demand and consumption [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Strategy - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is developing a strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, addressing the current issues of insufficient demand and supply [2]. - The strategy aims to strengthen the domestic circulation of the economy, adapting to the trend of demand upgrading and aligning with the new technological revolution and industrial transformation [2]. Group 2: Focus on Real Economy - The emphasis is placed on developing the real economy and constructing a modern industrial system, which is seen as the foundation of China's economic development [3]. - The approach includes fostering new supply through innovation and creating new job opportunities, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [3]. Group 3: Market Regulation and Competition - The government aims to enhance market vitality by advancing the construction of a unified national market and addressing issues of "involution" in competition [3]. - Measures will be taken to improve market access, ensure fair competition, and regulate prices in key industries to promote a healthy market order [3]. Group 4: Innovation and Development Potential - By 2026, China's economic structure is expected to continue improving, with new productive forces developing steadily and significant potential being released across consumption, investment, technology, and regional development [4]. - New economic growth points are emerging in sectors such as renewable energy, aerospace, and quantum technology, with new energy storage capacity exceeding 100 million kilowatts, accounting for over 40% of the global total [4][5]. Group 5: Regional Innovation and Investment - China has 24 global top 100 innovation clusters, leading the world for three consecutive years, with plans to establish major international technology innovation centers in key regions [5]. - The establishment of national venture capital funds aims to enhance regional investment and innovation, contributing to the creation of a global technology innovation hub [5].

O f Children AMPLE the state t 2017 i 17 t a y 16 1 - 20 k 20 CD 2 er 3 12 one of 2 th player the Change t the and and ren C 5 1 8 p 5 t 1999 A 375 s 2 1 1 1 TTP t the 17 The State the state pper CALL I the DINATE A C 前期准备：夯实交割与合作基础 国投国证投资与大连商品交易所规定的交割库——黑龙江源发粮食物流有限公司签订仓储合同，确保大豆现货的规范存储，为后续贸易环节提供基础设施保 障。使用交易所指定仓库进行货物交付与货权转移，能够保证货物交付各个环节符合交易所规则，规避信用风险与潜在纠纷，以电子化执行的高效率避免纸 质单据的繁琐流程。同时，还能够合理利用交易所仓单系统支持货权分割、分批转让，服务于自身销售过程中部分交割需求和客户灵活提货需求。另外，国 投国证投资可以通过该指定仓库的仓单与期货头寸对冲，实现"基差贸易+套保"一体化服务，降低价格波动风险。 中期执行：缓解现金流与锁定价格并行 为缓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary easing cycle is expected to continue into 2026, supporting a strong outlook for gold due to reserve demand, safe-haven demand, and allocation demand [1]. Monetary Policy Easing - The monetary easing cycle includes both monetary and fiscal policies, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement and extend easing measures in 2025 and 2026, including interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion [3]. - Weak non-farm data and lack of inflation rebound in the U.S. will prompt the Fed to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, which will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3]. Reserve Demand - The restructuring of the global monetary order continues, with major central banks increasing gold reserves to hedge against potential credit crises [4]. - The ongoing monetary easing by central banks creates excess liquidity, benefiting gold as a monetary asset [4]. Safe-Haven Demand - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections in 2026 and ongoing global political uncertainties will sustain strong safe-haven demand for gold as investors seek to hedge risks [5]. - The likelihood of continued tension in global trade relations and a multipolar political landscape will further support gold's appeal [5]. Allocation Demand - Strong allocation demand for gold persists, with significant capital inflows into the market, as gold serves as a foundational asset for optimizing portfolios and hedging risks [6]. - Global gold ETF holdings are nearing historical highs, indicating robust demand for gold as a hedge against market volatility [6]. Bull Market Outlook - The combination of monetary easing, safe-haven demand, reserve demand, and allocation demand suggests that the gold bull market may not be over [7]. - There is a high possibility of gold prices rising further, with potential for increased volatility, especially if the U.S. economy remains weak and the Fed continues its easing policies [8].

2026年，甲醇结束了自去年7月以来的下跌趋势，转入上涨行情。我们认为，甲醇价格止跌走强的原 因，除了大类资产共振上涨的带动外，甲醇自身低估值和港口去库预期也提供了重要支撑。此外，地缘 政治因素对甲醇价格产生明显影响，放大了价格的波动幅度。 进口预期缩减 甲醇港口库存自去年5月进入季节性累积周期，9月升至历史最高位。去年四季度，港口库存居高不下， 未出现往年同期流畅去库的态势。受高库存压制，甲醇价格表现偏弱。 2025年11月，随着天气转冷，伊朗甲醇装置开始陆续停车。伊朗甲醇以天然气为原料，近年来受天然气 资源匮乏困扰，冬季为保障居民供暖，天然气制甲醇装置需阶段性停车。自2019年实施冬季限气以来， 伊朗甲醇装置一般于11月中旬起陆续停车。去年因气温偏高，停车时间有所推迟，11月下旬才逐步开 始。11月24日，两套年产330万吨装置率先停车，其他装置陆续跟进。据金联创统计，截至2026年1月15 日，伊朗多数甲醇装置已经停车，整体开工率不足两成。 甲醇制烯烃（MTO）是甲醇最主要的下游。据卓创统计，目前，国内煤制烯烃行业开工率为80.75%， 较前一期下降4.67个百分点。具体来看，港口目前有两套装置停车检修 ...

禽畜养殖下游补充库存，深加工消费同比下降 截至1月15日，生猪自繁自养模式下的养殖利润为25.77元／头，较上周升高26元／头，外购仔猪模式下 养殖利润为-100.5元／头，较上周升高29元／头。蛋鸡养殖利润-0.04元／斤，略高于前周的-0.28元／ 斤。饲料厂通过拍卖玉米补充库存，物理库存天数以上涨为主，但是还未出现集中补库的情况。截至1 月15日，全国饲料企业平均库存可用天数为31.15天，较上周增加1.05天，环比上涨3.49%，同比下跌 6.71%。 截至1月14日，全国12个地区96家主要玉米加工企业库存总量为359万吨，环比增加1.41%，虽然库存增 加，但还是近3年同期最低的，东北地区深加工企业继续提价收购，华北地区玉米到货量平稳。1月8日 至1月14日，全国149家主要深加工企业共消耗玉米135.59万吨，比上周减少2.59万吨，低于2025年同期 的141万吨。截至1月9日，黑龙江地区玉米制乙醇利润在-742元／吨，低于2025年同期的-377元／吨， 玉米淀粉加工利润在-79元／吨，低于2025年同期的5元／吨。尽管淀粉价格小幅上涨，但是玉米价格偏 强，加工亏损扩大，淀粉库存高，下游采购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The short fiber market is currently in a downward adjustment phase, driven by weakened cost support and persistent weak demand, with prices expected to maintain a range-bound pattern above the 60-day moving average [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the peak price of short fiber contracts on December 26, 2025, the market has entered a volatile downward channel, with current prices supported at the 60-day moving average [1] - The processing profit margins in the short fiber industry have been continuously compressed, leading to many companies operating below cash flow cost lines, which has made production rates a key self-regulating mechanism in the market [2] - As of January 15, 2026, domestic short fiber profits were reported at -155.65 yuan/ton, showing a 39.17% increase from the beginning of 2026, indicating a marginal improvement due to stabilization in upstream raw material prices [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - The short fiber industry’s operating rate rebounded to 90.86% in the third week of 2026, with weekly production reaching 173,200 tons, reflecting the effectiveness of the "profit-operating rate" adjustment mechanism [5] - The main market contradiction has shifted from the direct conflict between cost pressure and processing profits to the balance between rapid supply elasticity and actual terminal demand capacity [5] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The downstream textile industry is entering a systematic contraction phase ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a rapid decrease in demand for short fibers due to seasonal production slowdowns and a gap in new orders [6] - The market's turning point is expected to occur post-Spring Festival, with demand recovery dependent on the scale and timing of new spring orders and strategic inventory adjustments by downstream enterprises [6] Group 4: Cost Fluctuations - Short fiber prices are highly correlated with PTA and ethylene glycol prices, with a correlation coefficient above 0.85, primarily influenced by crude oil market dynamics [7] - Global oil inventory pressures and supply surplus are expected to suppress oil price levels, but geopolitical risks could lead to short-term volatility in oil prices, affecting PTA and short fiber cost trends [7] - The short fiber market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with ongoing supply looseness and seasonal demand weakness, awaiting new driving factors for market direction [7]

2025年沪铝期货在宏观、产业与政策的共同驱动下，价格重心大幅抬升。展望2026年，市场将在"供给刚性"与"需求韧性"的结构性矛盾中维持 紧平衡，沪铝价格中枢有望继续上移。 宏观经济：复杂环境下的双轨支撑 海外方面，全球经济呈现出"稳定但脆弱"的格局，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计全球经济增速约3.1%。美联储谨慎的宽松货币政策立场，将 从流动性层面提振大宗商品的金融属性，并对美元形成压制，从而为铝价提供关键的金融面支撑。然而，持续的地缘冲突与抬头的美贸易保 护主义，将持续扰动全球供应链的稳定性与终端需求的预期，对铝价形成压制并间歇性引发市场避险情绪。整体来看，海外宏观对铝价的影 响可概括为"需求面有压，金融面有撑，风险面有扰"。 国内方面，2026年明确了"稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破"的政策总基调。货币政策预计保持适度宽松以促进经济循环，财政政策将更加积 极有力，通过扩大支出、发行超长期特别国债等方式，重点投向"十五五"规划建议的重大工程项目、城市更新及民生设施建设等领域。这 种"投资于物"的财政扩张，为铝市场提供了坚实的"宏观政策托底"。同时产业创新与绿色转型正重塑铝的需求结构，形成强有力的"新兴需求 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments aim to support key sectors and enhance financial stability while managing inflation expectations [1][2][3] - In January, the bond market experienced fluctuations, initially declining due to stronger-than-expected economic indicators, including a manufacturing PMI above 50% and CPI rising to its highest level since March 2023 [1] - The central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points on January 15, optimizing various monetary policy tools to support strategic sectors and small private enterprises [1][2] Group 2 - The overall economic resilience and the acceleration of high-quality transformation are emphasized, with the central bank's policies focusing on targeted support rather than broad measures [2] - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan six-month reverse repurchase operation on January 15, indicating a continued injection of medium-term liquidity into the market [2] - The bond market is expected to remain supported by a reasonable liquidity environment, with short-term bonds stabilizing while long-term bonds face more negative factors due to rising inflation signals [3]

2025年，面对国内外经济环境的复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门 深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两 个大局，统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，国民经济运 行顶压前行、向新向优，高质量发展取得新成效，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十四五"胜利 收官。 初步核算，全年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。分产业看，第一产业 增加值93347亿元，比上年增长3.9%；第二产业增加值499653亿元，增长4.5%；第三产业增加值808879 亿元，增长5.4%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长 4.8%，四季度增长4.5%。从环比看，四季度国内生产总值增长1.2%。 一、粮食增产丰收，畜牧业稳定增长 全年全国粮食总产量71488万吨，比上年增加838万吨，增长1.2%。其中，夏粮产量14975万吨，下降 0.1%；早稻产量2851万吨，增长1.2%；秋粮产量53662万吨，增长1.5%。分品种看，小麦产量14007 ...