受焦煤期价企稳反弹与中美贸易谈判向好提振，黑色金属市场情绪回暖，螺纹钢期货价格低位回升，主 力合约一度突破3000元／吨关口，累计上涨近3%；华东地区现货同期则涨跌互现，整体表现要弱于期 货。 淡季需求走弱 近期，钢价上行主因是短期利多发酵带动市场情绪回暖。一方面，焦煤期价触底反弹，前期拖累黑色金 属的主因迎来变化。另一方面，中美元首通话，且中美经贸磋商达成措施框架，贸易风险缓和，进一步 助推市场情绪回暖，前期悲观预期迎来修复，黑色金属集体低位回升。不过，螺纹钢需求在走弱，高频 需求指标持续下行。截至6月13日当周，同口径下螺纹钢周度表需最新值为219.98万吨，环比下降9.04万 吨，持续回落并处于近年来同期最低，同比降幅3.14%。与此同时，钢联水泥出库量和混凝土发运量同 样走弱，最新值环比分别下降6.8%、12.6%，均是近年来同期最低，相较去年同期分别下降21.4%、 11.5%，弱势态势明显，佐证建筑相关品种需求表现疲弱。 在供需双弱局面下，螺纹钢库存延续去化。截至6月13日当周，同口径下螺纹钢库存总量为558.08万 吨，环比下降12.41万吨，显著低于往年同期水平，同比降幅为28.53%。不过， ...

周末期间，原油市场紧张情绪持续发酵并进一步升级，担忧氛围弥漫并占据主导地位。受此影响，6月 16日原油价格显著高开，WTI原油期价一度冲破76美元／桶，涨幅超过6%。然而，随后价格迅速回 落，并围绕前期水平展开整理。目前，由于美国等伊核协议相关国家正联合英、法、德等国积极推动和 谈，在此背景下，整体事态尚处于可控范围之内。不过，短期来看，油价仍将在地缘风险的扰动下维持 高波动状态。 从国际关系来看，伊朗国内存在诸多复杂问题。政治方面，1953年8月19日，美国中央情报局实施代号 为"阿贾克斯"的行动，推翻伊朗民选首相摩萨台，扶持巴列维国王复辟。就在政变前两年，摩萨台大力 推动了伊朗石油产业的国有化。1980年9月22日，伊朗和伊拉克之间爆发大规模持久战争。两伊战争给 伊朗带来了诸多遗留问题，其国内出现二元政治结构冲突，保守派与改革派之间存在明显的利益分化。 经济方面，长期以来，伊朗经济对石油产业过度依赖，产业结构极为单一。而美国实施的制裁举措，更 是让伊朗经济状况急剧恶化，失业率大幅攀升，由此滋生诸多社会矛盾。 美伊关系方面，1953年，美国扶持巴列维政权，美伊双方是盟友关系；但1979年伊斯兰革命后，美伊关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current round of retail fuel price adjustments in China is expected to see an increase due to rising international crude oil prices, with a potential for consecutive price hikes in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: International Oil Prices - International crude oil prices have risen to between $73 and $78 per barrel, driven by optimistic expectations surrounding US-China trade negotiations and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2]. - The average price of crude oil has shown significant increases, with the reference crude oil change rate reaching 5.26% as of June 13, indicating a widening price increase for retail fuel [2]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - The expected increase in retail fuel prices is projected to be around 230 yuan per ton, with the final adjustment possibly exceeding 280 yuan per ton [2]. - If the price adjustment is confirmed, the cost for a private car to fill a 50L tank will increase by approximately 11 yuan, while the monthly fuel cost for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers will rise by about 16 yuan [2]. - For heavy-duty trucks running 10,000 kilometers per month, the fuel cost is expected to increase by around 425 yuan before the next price adjustment window [2]. Group 3: Future Price Trends - Concerns over supply disruptions due to Middle Eastern tensions suggest that international oil prices may continue to rise, although potential de-escalation in the region could lead to price corrections [3]. - The next retail fuel price adjustment window is anticipated on July 1, with expectations for a third consecutive price increase based on current crude oil prices [3].

Group 1 - Domestic factors are currently in a phase where their impact on the stock index market needs to be strengthened, with macroeconomic data showing resilience but lacking short-term positive catalysts [1][7] - The CPI in May decreased slightly by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial product prices [1][7] - In May, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1%, while imports fell by 3.4%, leading to a trade surplus of $103.22 billion [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI in May rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery but still below the expansion threshold, suggesting insufficient recovery momentum [2][7] - Recent monetary policy measures from the central bank have created a "vacuum period" for domestic policies, with the market focusing on the actual effects of these policies [3][7] - The recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has reduced the necessity for large-scale market interventions by state funds, allowing the stock index to operate more independently [3][4] Group 3 - The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has introduced new volatility factors into the market, affecting global risk sentiment and asset prices [5][7] - Investors are advised to monitor the developments in the Iran situation closely, as it may impact commodity supply expectations and overall market stability [5][7] - The overall economic environment is characterized by low inflation and structural adjustments in exports, with a focus on observing the effectiveness of prior policy measures [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slowdown in upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating after reaching 3400 points, ultimately closing at 3377 points, down 0.25% for the week [1] - The main futures contracts IF and IC saw slight increases of 0.07% and 0.15% respectively, while IH and IM contracts decreased by 0.28% and 0.16% [1] - There was a significant increase in futures positions, with a total increase of 67,798 contracts across four varieties, bringing total positions to 896,308 contracts [1] Group 2 - All major futures contracts showed an increase in positions among the top 20 holders, indicating a bullish sentiment [2] - Specifically, the IF long positions increased by 20,933 contracts, while short positions rose by 17,456 contracts, resulting in a net short position decrease to 21,692 contracts [2] - The market showed a notable divergence in positions, with significant increases in long positions from various firms, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] Group 3 - Overall, the futures market exhibited relatively flat movements, but there was a substantial increase in main contract holdings, suggesting heightened trading activity [3] - The resurgence of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is expected to increase short-term volatility in the futures market [3]

Group 1: Cotton Market - Cotton futures prices are experiencing fluctuations as temperatures in Xinjiang rise, with most cotton fields entering the flowering stage, indicating good growth conditions [1] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding US-China tariff policies is causing market volatility, while the downstream textile industry is in a traditional consumption lull, leading to reduced orders and slight inventory accumulation [1] - Cotton prices may face downward pressure in the short term due to demand seasonality, with a support level to watch around 13,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal prices are rising, but there are still supply pressures, and inventory depletion may be challenging due to a lack of significant increases in aquaculture production [1] - Soybean oil prices are also increasing, supported by strong bottom levels despite a persistent oversupply situation, influenced by international relations and overall oil market trends [1] Group 3: Sugar Market - Sugar futures prices are declining, with Brazil's exports showing a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and India's projected sugar production for the 2025/2026 season estimated at 35 million tons [2] - In Guangxi, sugar sales have increased by 537,100 tons year-on-year, with a sales rate of 71.85%, indicating a positive trend in local sugar consumption [2] - Short-term sugar prices in Zhengzhou are expected to follow external market fluctuations, with a key support level at 5,600 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Peanut Market - Peanut prices are declining due to weak spot market transactions, with new season prices stabilizing around 4.7 yuan per jin [2] - A significant reduction in import volumes is pushing up imported peanut prices, while peanut oil prices remain stable, indicating a mixed market response [2] Group 5: Overall Market Trends - The Yisheng Agricultural Futures Index showed a rebound last week, closing at 1,155.54 points, ending the previous week's downward trend [3] - The market is expected to continue experiencing wide fluctuations, with the index likely to maintain a volatile operating pattern in the near future [4]

当前，鸡蛋价格持续下行，蛋鸡养殖行业逐步陷入亏损困境。6月正值梅雨季，作为鸡蛋传统销售淡 季，却又临近中秋消费旺季，在这关键的时间节点，鸡蛋产业正经历深刻变革。为助力市场参与者精准 把握当下市场动态与未来走势，中泰期货于2025年5月27日—6月2日，对鸡蛋主产区开展专项调研。此 次调研路线覆盖北京、保定、衡水、晋中、运城、黄冈等地，调研结论如下： 第一，尽管2025年上半年鸡蛋市场行情低迷，蛋鸡养殖全口径核算持续亏损，但养殖主体补栏热情却逆 势上扬。来自种鸡企业的数据显示，今年1—4月商品代鸡苗销量同比增长20%，且粉鸡苗订单已排至9 月，直观反映出商品代蛋鸡养殖主体补栏积极性高涨。调研中，多位蛋商也表示，周边蛋鸡存栏量持续 增加，上半年补栏规模显著扩大。在市场低迷期补栏量不降反增的现象，或将对后续鸡蛋市场行情形成 下行压力。 第二，蛋鸡养殖逼近现金流亏损红线，高产鸡群成扭亏关键。当前行业亏损备受关注，调研数据显示， 按全周期综合成本核算，万只蛋鸡日亏损约500元。其中，现金流成本是衡量亏损严重性的核心指标， 若鸡蛋收入无法覆盖饲料成本，养殖户将面临资金压力。以河北产区为例，截至5月底，蛋鸡养殖现金 流成本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that manganese silicon prices have rebounded from low levels due to improved market sentiment driven by the rebound in coking coal prices and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [1][2] - The main factors contributing to the recovery of manganese silicon prices include the recent rebound in coking coal prices and the easing of trade risks between the US and China, which has led to a restoration of market expectations [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the price rebound, the fundamental demand for manganese silicon remains weak, with steel production gradually declining as the traditional off-season approaches, leading to a decrease in manganese silicon demand [2][3] - As of June 6, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 83.56%, with a capacity utilization rate of 90.65%, both showing a continuous decline over four weeks [2] - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel products has decreased to 12.58 million tons, marking a 0.86% decline from the previous week and a 3.82% drop compared to the same period last year, indicating weak demand [2] Group 3 - The cost of manganese silicon is also under pressure due to declining prices of manganese ore and coke, with the potential for further cost reductions as electricity prices in major production areas are expected to decrease [4] - Manganese ore inventory at ports has increased to 4.202 million tons, reflecting a weak supply-demand balance, while the latest weekly delivery of manganese ore reached 677,800 tons, the second-highest level this year [4] Group 4 - The supply of manganese silicon remains low but stable, with the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises reported at 35.03%, marking a significant decline from previous highs [5][6] - The average daily output of manganese silicon has dropped to 24,555 tons, with the lowest operating rate recorded at 33.60%, the lowest since September 2022 [5] Group 5 - Despite the current low supply, high inventory levels at enterprises and the introduction of new production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, limiting the positive impact of supply on prices [6] - Overall, while manganese silicon prices have seen a rebound due to improved market sentiment, the underlying supply-demand dynamics and declining costs suggest limited upward momentum, with prices expected to continue fluctuating at low levels [6]

1—4月，我国煤炭的供给增速高于需求增速，整体供需格局呈现宽松态势，库存不断累积，导致价格偏 弱运行。但进入夏季，动力煤将步入降库周期，价格有望止跌企稳，甚至可能出现一定幅度的反弹，同 时或带动焦煤、焦炭价格止跌企稳。 具体来看，2024年，我国煤炭总产量达47.8亿吨，同比增加5845万吨，增幅为1.3%。2025年1—4月，我 国煤炭产量为15.85亿吨，同比增加1.09亿吨，增幅为6.6%。 2024年，我国焦炭产量为4.89亿吨，同比减少0.8%。2025年1—4月，我国焦炭产量为1.644亿吨，同比 增加3.2%；其中4月焦炭产量为4160万吨，同比增加7.1%。 我国煤炭中动力煤的占比高达83%，动力煤价格对焦煤价格有着重要影响力。动力煤的主要用途是火力 发电，此外还应用于冶金、建材等非电行业。 2024年，我国房地产市场持续呈现低投资、低开工的态势，水泥、生铁等重点耗煤产品的产量同比不断 下降。同年，我国火力发电量达到6.34万亿度，同比增加1.5%。然而，2024年，我国煤炭供给增幅为 2.44%，超过了需求增幅，使得煤价走势偏弱。 到了2025年1—4月，我国火力发电量为1.98万亿度，同比 ...

Group 1 - The asphalt market is currently facing a stalemate, with prices fluctuating between 3500 to 3620 yuan/ton, and a lack of significant upward or downward movement due to high valuations and weak demand expectations [1][2] - The supply-demand balance is weakly maintained, with low inventory rates below 0.2 providing support for prices, while seasonal demand shows mild improvement [2][3] - The northern resource supply remains tight, but the southern market is experiencing lower prices, disrupting the traditional pricing dominance of northern regions [3] Group 2 - The market is characterized by strong support but weak driving forces, leading to limited operational space for asphalt trading [3] - The overall fundamentals of the asphalt market are resilient, but there are structural regional contradictions that need to be addressed [3] - The expectation for inventory accumulation in 2025 is weak, and the market is not expected to see significant accumulation in the second quarter [2]