1月的商品市场明星非金银莫属。然而，在宏观变局与产业新旧动能共振的格局下，有色金属板块表现 同样可圈可点。随着贵金属市场经历巨震、波动渐趋平缓，投资者的目光开始寻找新的结构性机遇。其 中，铜与铝1月表现尤为活跃，两者走势呈现"你追我赶"的轮动格局。 1月，地缘政治不稳定因素推升了市场避险情绪。白银因海外供应紧张而飙涨，其剧烈波动显著干扰了 铜铝的运行节奏。1月末，随着凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，贵金属市场遭遇重挫，并拖累铜铝 价格。 然而，这些外部干扰因素正在快速被市场消化。美联储1月议息会议维持利率不变，2月暂无议息安排， 市场焦点转向地缘政治等宏观事件。更重要的是，前期扰动市场的两大不确定性——美国对关键矿产的 关税政策方向与美联储主席人选已阶段性明朗。随着相关套利活动趋于停滞，预计白银价格对铜铝的干 扰将逐步减弱，铜铝的定价也将逐步回归自身供需面。 铜市场正面临数年未见的供应紧张格局。2026年铜精矿长单加工费（TC/RC）定为零美元／吨，印证了 矿端供应极度紧张的现实。尽管高位硫酸价格贴补了冶炼利润，但矿源紧张仍是贯穿全年的主题。与此 同时，国内外废铜供应因季节性与政策监管趋严而持续紧张，进一步 ...

当地时间1月30日，芝商所集团(CME Group)宣布上调旗下贵金属品种的交易保证金要求。公告称，将 于2月2日收盘后全面上调黄金、白银、铂、钯等贵金属期货的履约保证金(名义价值百分比)。这是CME Group内第2次上调白银、铂、钯期货的保证金。 据期货日报记者了解，此次调整幅度显著：黄金期货非高风险账户保证金比例从6%上调至8%，高风险 账户从6.6%上调至8.8%；白银期货非高风险账户从11%上调至15%，高风险账户从12.1%上调至16.5%； 铂、钯期货保证金也同步提高。 提高交易门槛给市场"降温" 在业内人士看来，CME Group近期密集出台风控措施，与贵金属价格剧烈波动直接相关。1月下旬，国 际金价一度突破5500美元/盎司，创历史新高。国际银价也一度飙升至121美元/盎司，年度涨幅近60%。 然而，1月30日，国际银价暴跌近31%，国际金价也出现了15%的跌幅，创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。 对此，中国(香港)金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英表示，金属价格极端波动的背后是大量资金涌入引 发的交易拥挤。仅2026年1月，亚洲黄金ETF规模就增长了70亿美元，国内黄金、白银相关的ETF流入 资金超1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets experienced a sudden shift with panic selling, leading to significant price declines, with gold prices dropping by up to 12% and silver prices falling over 35% in the last two trading days of January [1][2]. Price Adjustments - Domestic gold jewelry brands adjusted their prices in response to the drop in gold and silver prices. For instance, on January 31, Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price fell to 1625 CNY per gram, and its gold bars dropped to 1425 CNY per gram, compared to 1706 CNY and 1496 CNY per gram on January 29 [1]. Market Conditions - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to an overheated market, with indicators showing extreme conditions. The volatility of gold ETFs reached 46.02%, nearing historical highs, and the monthly increase in gold prices exceeded 20%, a rare occurrence since 1968 [2]. Influencing Factors - The market interpreted President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair as a potential shift towards a more hawkish monetary policy, increasing risks associated with future monetary easing [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the precious metals market may require time to stabilize and find a new equilibrium price. The current market dynamics indicate a potential for continued high volatility, with the possibility of a second bottom and back-and-forth movements in prices [4]. Long-term Perspective - Despite short-term fluctuations, the fundamental support for gold and silver remains intact. Factors such as high global debt, inflation risks, and geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive strategic demand for gold. Additionally, silver's demand is supported by structural needs in energy transition and AI, with supply constraints likely to persist [4].

Group 1 - Israeli airstrikes in Gaza resulted in 32 deaths, with Hamas denying accusations of violating ceasefire agreements [2] - The majority of the casualties from the airstrikes were women and children, according to Gaza's civil defense department [2] Group 2 - Iran is reportedly in dialogue with the United States, as confirmed by President Trump [4][5] - Iranian officials indicate that a negotiation framework is gradually taking shape, despite media speculation [6] - The Iranian government has denied rumors regarding the assassination of a high-ranking military commander following an explosion in southern Iran [7][8] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in non-ferrous metal prices are attributed to a combination of factors, including U.S. economic data and market sentiment [10][11] - Analysts suggest that the recent price adjustments are a result of profit-taking and technical corrections, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year [12] - Long-term demand for non-ferrous metals remains strong due to factors such as monetary easing and insufficient investment in mining [13]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical market has experienced a significant rebound in pure benzene prices in January, driven by strong demand from the styrene industry and rising costs due to oil price increases [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price seven times from January 12 to January 30, totaling an increase of 850 yuan/ton, with the final price reaching 6150 yuan/ton, a rise of 16.04% [1]. - By January 30, the main futures price for pure benzene closed at 6237 yuan/ton, with a peak of 6434 yuan/ton during the month [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - The primary drivers of the price surge include the strong performance of styrene, which is a downstream product, and the rebound in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Increased exports of styrene and operational issues in several production facilities contributed to the rising prices of pure benzene [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price increase has not benefited all sectors equally; strong demand in the styrene and aniline markets contrasts with weaker sectors like caprolactam and phenol, which face pressure from soft terminal demand [3]. - Different end-use sectors exhibit varying capacities to absorb price increases, with niche markets like coatings and solvents experiencing more significant impacts due to high cost proportions [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of the price increase, anticipating potential corrections as the market approaches the traditional off-season for demand [4][5]. - The recovery of terminal demand post-holiday will be crucial for determining the future trajectory of pure benzene prices, with expectations of a slight increase in February due to pre-holiday stockpiling [5].

尽管沃什在短期内可能会如特朗普所希望的那样推动降息，但金融市场认为，他不会在所有事情上都听 命于总统，而是会维护货币政策的公信力。 期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)美国劳工统计局30日发布的数据显示，美国2025年12月生产者价格指数(PPI) 环比上涨0.5%，同比上涨3%；剔除食品和能源后的12月核心PPI环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨3.3%，均高 于市场预期。 分项来看，服务成本显著上升，其中贸易利润率环比涨幅为2024年年中以来最高，机械设备批发利润率 成为主要拉动因素；商品价格因能源下跌整体持平，但核心商品价格仍呈加速上涨态势。 尽管能源价格走低使整体商品价格环比持平，但剔除能源和食品后的核心商品价格涨幅进一步加快。其 中，家用电器，建筑机械，工业化学品及轻型卡车等品类价格上升尤为明显。 生产者价格指数(PPI)受到经济学家与投资者的高度重视，因其多项构成要素将直接纳入美联储更为关 注的通胀衡量指标个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)。美国经济分析局定于2月20日公布12月的PCE价格数 据，同时发布居民收入与支出报告。 此前，在2025年底连续三次降息后，美联储于本周三决定暂缓进一步降息。主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻 ...

早上好！ 昨夜今晨，黄金、白银价格继续大幅下跌。纽约黄金期价一度跌破4800美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过 10%；白银期价一度跌破80美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过30%。截至收盘，纽约黄金下跌8.35%，报4907.5 美元/盎司；现货黄金重挫9%，报4891.43美元/盎司；纽约白银下跌25.5%，报85.25美元/盎司。国内夜 盘方面，沪金收跌9.83%，沪银收跌17%。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.73%，在汇市尾市收于96.989。 数据方面，据美国商品期货交易委员会最新消息披露，截至1月27日当周，纽约商品交易所黄金投机客 将净多头头寸削减17742份合约，至121421份合约；白银投机客将净多头头寸削减4032份合约，至7294 份合约。 MKS普安普贵金属公司金属策略主管尼基・希尔斯在一份报告中称：2026年1月的交易已收官，这一月 将成为贵金属市场历史上波动最剧烈的一个月。 火爆的市场为何突然降温？有何突发原因？渣打银行大宗商品研究全球主管苏琪・库珀表示，市场本就 存在回调需求，触发因素或为多重因素叠加，既包括美联储主席人选的公布，也涉及更宏观的资金流动 层面。 弘业期货有色金属研究员 ...

（文章来源：期货日报） 2026 | ESUN | -MON | 二TUE | =WED | 四THU | 五FRI | 六SAT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01+四 | 02+五 | 03+六 | 04立春 | 05+// | 06+九 | 07=+ | | | 中国1月RATING- | 澳洲联储公布利 | 美国1月ADP就业 | 英国央行公布利 | 美国1月失业率 | 中国1月外汇 | | | DOG制造业PMI | 率决议 | 人数 | 率决议 | 美国1月季调后 | 储备 | | | 美国1月ISM制造 | 美国2025年12月 | 美国至1月30日当 | 欧洲央行公布利 | | 美国至2月6日 | | | VPMI | | | 率决议 | 非农就业人口 | 当周石油钻井 | | | | JOLTS职位空缺 | 周EIA原油库存 | 美国至1月31日当 | | 总数 | | | | | | 周初请失业金人数 | | | | 08+- | 09+= | 10北小年 | 11南小年 | 12出五 | 13 十六 | 14情人节 | | ...

郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局并未改变。他预计，全球原油供需平衡的实质性拐点可能出现在2026年一 季度之后，届时供给增长受限与需求季节性回暖或共同为油价提供上行动力。 进入2026年，国际原油市场风云再起。受伊朗局势影响，布伦特原油价格一度突破70美元/桶关口，在 不到一个月的时间内累计反弹超过10美元/桶，成为近半年来最为强劲的一轮上涨。 市场普遍认为，近期美国在中东地区的军事行动，加剧了市场对伊朗原油供应可能中断的担忧。然而， 在"火热"的盘面之下，能化研究员在接受期货日报记者采访时却冷静地表示，全球原油市场供需宽松的 基本格局并未发生根本性扭转，当前涨幅已蕴含较高的地缘风险溢价，需警惕市场情绪退潮后的回调风 险。 "中东地缘局势对油价的影响主要包括两个方面。"中辉期货能化研究员郭艳鹏分析道，"一是伊朗自身 的原油供应，其产量已达350万桶/日，出口量约160万桶/日；二是其毗邻的霍尔木兹海峡，作为全球石 油贸易咽喉要道，日均通过量巨大。"他表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间布伦特油价因地缘风险带来的溢 价在15美元/桶左右，而本轮自1月初以来的上涨幅度已超10美元/桶，已经接近上一轮冲突的溢价幅 度。 海证 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold and silver prices have experienced significant declines, with New York gold futures dropping over 10% to below $4800 per ounce, and silver futures falling over 30% to below $80 per ounce [1] - As of the close, New York gold was down 8.35% at $4907.5 per ounce, while spot gold fell 9% to $4891.43 per ounce; New York silver decreased by 25.5% to $85.25 per ounce [1][2] - Domestic night trading saw Shanghai gold drop by 9.83% and Shanghai silver by 17% [1] Group 2: Speculative Positions - According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of January 27, speculators reduced their net long positions in gold by 17,742 contracts to 121,421 contracts, and in silver by 4,032 contracts to 7,294 contracts [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - The volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to multiple factors, including the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair and macro-level capital flows [4] - Analysts suggest that the recent price drops were triggered by a decrease in market panic due to easing tensions in Iran, a strong rebound in the dollar, and profit-taking by long positions [4][5] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the instability in Venezuela and Iran, as well as ongoing conflicts in various regions, have previously driven up precious metal prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5][6] Group 4: Consumer Impact - The rapid fluctuations in gold prices have led to significant daily price changes in retail gold jewelry, with prices increasing by nearly 100 yuan per gram within a day [7][9] - Despite rising prices, consumer demand remains strong, with many buyers motivated by the "buy high, sell higher" mentality [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that while the long-term trend for gold remains upward, there are short-term risks of further corrections [11] - The expectation of continued central bank demand for gold and the potential for increased allocations in a "de-dollarization" context are seen as supportive factors for gold prices in the medium to long term [11]