LME首席运营官兼交易主管杰米·特纳表示："LME将把FCA的新要求融入现有的头寸管理控制体系，这 将使LME拥有更大的灵活性，确保头寸限制能够根据市场的特点量身打造，并与现有的监管措施协同 发挥作用。" 根据公告，LME计划于2026年2月发布关于拟议规则变更的咨询文件，以适配新制度。 此次规则调整的关键举措集中在风险敞口管控层面。LME明确提出，将在单个实体及集团层面以净额 为基础计算持仓仓位，并引入更具体的问责阈值。 整体来看，LME可以及时根据每个金属合约的具体特性（如市场规模、流动性、波动性）来校准头寸 限制。这意味着对波动性较大的合约可以进行更严格的控制，而对流动性充足的合约则可以采取相对宽 松的限制，使风控措施更加精准有效。 在发生市场挤仓或极端波动时，LME将能更快速地做出反应， 调整头寸限制或问责阈值，而不必经过冗长的监管审批流程。这有助于防止市场失序，更好应对类似于 伦镍危机的挑战。 近日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）发布声明，计划自2026年7月起执行持仓限额新规，此次规则调整旨在 全面遵守英国金融监管机构的相关要求，进一步强化市场风险管控能力，维护金属期货市场的平稳运 行。 据期货日报记者 ...

Group 1: Oilseed Market Overview - The oilseed sector remains in a volatile pattern, with differentiated performance among various oil types. Since late November, canola oil prices have been on a downward trend, while soybean and palm oil prices have shown some resilience [1] - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a significant increase in U.S. soybean oil exports, indicating a structural shift in the global vegetable oil market driven by policy and trade [2] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - The USDA maintained the U.S. soybean oil ending stocks forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 1.726 billion pounds, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 5.65%. This stability is supported by strong crushing demand and robust export sales [3] - U.S. soybean crushing reached a record high in October, with a volume of 237 million bushels, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [3] - U.S. soybean oil inventories rose to 1.781 billion pounds by the end of October, up 1.95% month-on-month and 11.87% year-on-year, indicating that strong crushing capacity is outpacing consumption and export [3] Group 3: Global Soybean Oil Market Dynamics - The USDA raised the global soybean oil ending stocks forecast for 2025/2026 to 5.891 million tons, an increase of 198,000 tons from the previous report. Despite a relaxed global soybean supply, soybean oil's unique industrial properties and policy drivers are expected to create a relatively independent market trend [4] Group 4: Palm Oil Supply Issues - Malaysia's palm oil inventory surged by 13% to 2.84 million tons by the end of November, exceeding market expectations and reaching the highest level since April 2019. This increase is attributed to high production levels and a sharp decline in exports [5] - November palm oil exports fell by 28.1% month-on-month to 1.21 million tons, marking a new low for the year, primarily due to weak demand from China and India [5] Group 5: Indonesian Palm Oil Production Challenges - Indonesia's palm oil production may face contraction due to severe flooding impacting infrastructure, although the Indonesian Palm Oil Association claims no significant production losses. However, logistical issues are expected to delay at least 40% of December's export volume [6] - The Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal land use is affecting palm oil plantations, with significant penalties imposed on companies, potentially leading to operational disruptions for 3-6 months [6] Group 6: Domestic Oilseed Market Conditions - As of December 12, domestic commercial inventories of soybean, palm, and canola oils totaled 2.1186 million tons, a decrease of 3.42% week-on-week, but still 9.83% higher year-on-year, indicating high supply levels that continue to pressure oil prices [7] - The price gap between soybean and palm oil has narrowed to 500 yuan per ton, with palm oil blending demand being suppressed due to high inventory levels [8]

近段时间，虽然国内菜粕市场供应依旧偏紧，但冬季水产等养殖已经退出市场，菜粕需求处于淡季，菜 粕呈现出一定的有价无市状态。市场呈现出供需两淡格局，菜粕价格转向震荡。 除此以外，我国近期增加了对澳大利亚油菜籽的进口，但通关情况仍存在一定变数。并且我国是否会在 明年3月之后恢复进口加拿大油菜籽，仍未可知。因而，我国油菜籽供应仍存在难以弥补的缺口。一旦 春季到来，水产养殖恢复，菜粕刚性需求回归，必然加剧供应偏紧的格局，届时菜粕价格可能出现阶段 性反弹。对于当下菜粕相关生产与采购的现货企业，仍需跟踪我国进口油菜籽到港情况，以及未来国内 养殖恢复情况，并控制好相应库存变动节奏。（作者单位：然厚商贸） （文章来源：期货日报） 前期我国油菜籽供应一度紧缺，尤其是国内沿海地区菜油厂进口油菜籽库存趋近于零，使得油厂停机持 续6周之久。菜粕的产出亦出现停滞，港口地区油厂菜粕的库存长期不足1万吨，处于历史低位。不过， 当前处于冬季，国内各地水产养殖已经退出市场，菜粕的需求进入季节性淡季，沿海地区油厂菜粕的提 货量日均仅在百吨上下。低库存利多与弱需求利空相抵消，菜粕价格呈现出震荡状态。 随着北半球豆类上市，以及巴西、阿根廷等大豆丰收预 ...

近期，国内生猪市场呈现多空因素交织的复杂局面，价格整体维持震荡调整。一方面，短期出栏压力缓 解叠加传统消费旺季启动，为现货价格提供了坚实底部支撑；另一方面，庞大的潜在供应压力依然存 在，始终制约着价格的上涨空间。 出栏压力减小与旺季需求启动 尽管短期市场氛围有所改善，但决定中长期价格方向的根本性矛盾并未得到实质性解决，诸多迹象表明 中期压力依然巨大。 第一，饲料数据印证中短期供应充裕。作为判断生猪存栏结构的先行指标，育肥猪饲料的销量变化具有 重要参考意义。回顾2025年，春节后生猪育肥料月度销量呈现震荡增加态势，这一趋势直接反映了中短 期内待出栏的商品猪数量持续保持高位。饲料消费的刚性增长，与能繁母猪存栏高位运行的官方数据相 互印证，共同指向一个结论：未来三个月，生猪市场的潜在供应依然充裕。这从根本上限制了猪价反弹 的高度。 第二，出栏体重绝对值仍偏高，降重压力犹在。虽然出栏体重已开始下降，但其绝对数值仍处于历史高 位。这意味着，若要减轻春节后出栏压力，后续需要在春节前进行降重出栏。 第三，冻品库存持续累积，形成远期供应压力。近期，屠宰企业被动与主动入库行为并存，屠企冻品库 容率持续攀升。高企的冻品库存构成双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement new position limit regulations starting July 2026 to enhance market risk management and comply with UK financial regulatory requirements [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will transfer the authority to set and manage position limits to the LME starting July 6, 2026, allowing for more direct and flexible risk management based on market dynamics [3]. - The new regulations will cover core futures contracts for six key non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts (TAPO) [3]. Group 2: Risk Management Enhancements - The LME will calculate position limits on a net basis for individual entities and groups, introducing specific accountability thresholds to strengthen risk exposure management [3][4]. - The LME will adjust position limits based on the specific characteristics of each metal contract, allowing for stricter controls on more volatile contracts while applying more lenient limits on liquid contracts [4]. Group 3: Operational Flexibility - The LME will be able to respond quickly to market squeezes or extreme volatility by adjusting position limits or accountability thresholds without lengthy regulatory approval processes, which helps prevent market disorder [4]. - The COO of LME, Jamie Turner, stated that the integration of FCA's new requirements into the existing position management system will provide greater flexibility and ensure limits are tailored to market characteristics [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Industry experts view this regulatory change as a transfer of power and an upgrade of responsibility, emphasizing the importance of rebuilding market confidence after the 2022 nickel crisis [5]. - While there may be short-term challenges due to increased compliance costs and uncertainties, successful implementation of the new regulations could lead to a more transparent and robust market in the long term [5].

作为农业产业化国家重点龙头企业，金岭集团探索出了一条"产业赋能+金融对冲"双轮驱动的"保险＋期 货"特色合作模式。该模式将"保险+期货"深度融入其"公司+基地+农户"的产业体系，把蔗农利益与企业 发展紧密相连，形成了"订单农业为基础、保险期货为保障、全周期服务为支撑"的发展格局。特别 是"保底收购+二次结算"的方式，消除了蔗农的种植担忧。同时，金岭集团借助期货市场进行套期保 值，锁定经营利润，实现了企业与农户风险共担、利益共享。这一模式构建起"蔗农安心种植、企业放 心收购、金融强力兜底"的良性循环：农户获得稳定收益后，更愿意投入良种和先进技术，从而提升甘 蔗单产和糖分含量；企业则可集中资源，专注于加工升级和市场开拓，推动全产业链效率提升。 在湛江这片热土上，"保险+期货"的探索与实践已取得显著成效。作为本次会议的协办方，广发期货、 中国太保（601601）产险广东分公司及广东金岭糖业集团有限公司（下称金岭集团）以"保险＋期货"为 抓手，为湛江市白糖产业的稳健发展作出了突出贡献。 其中，广发期货聚焦全国糖料蔗核心产区——湛江市徐闻县，自2023年起连续深入推进糖料蔗"保险 +期货"项目。2025年，该项目保障白 ...

孙匡文表示，传统消费领域如地产、基建等增长偏弱，但新能源与人工智能等新兴产业的快速发展，为铜、铝、锡注入了新的消费增长动力，而铅、锌则 未能明显受益。他认为，供应端约束是造成金属价格走势分化的关键。铜、锡面临矿端供应紧张的局面，电解铝受限于国内产能天花板，锌、铅供应则总 体宽松，镍国内外供应亦均显著过剩。因此，在宏观基调偏暖的背景下，基本面占优的金属有望持续走强。孙匡文认为，从价格表现看，铜强于锡、锡强 于铝、铝强于锌、锌强于镍。 铜市：三重因素共振 当前，全球经济为金属消费提供基础支撑，美国进入降息周期并重启扩表，国内政策持续发力，共同推动增长预期提升。然而，不同金属因基本面差异而 呈现显著分化态势。在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列第五期访谈中，新湖期货研究所有色金属首席分析师孙匡文围绕铜、铝、镍、锡等主要品种 的供需格局展开分析，解读在宏观政策与产业变迁双重影响下的有色金属投资机会与风险。 "锡市场受供应端影响较大。"孙匡文介绍，今年全球锡精矿产量下降，10月中国进口锡精矿同比下降22.36%。另外，加工费走低，同样抑制锡精矿产量增 长。 印度尼西亚等主要出口国的锡精矿受政策影响，出口不及预期。 ...

当前，全球经济为金属消费提供基础支撑，美国进入降息周期并重启扩表，国内政策持续发力，共同推动增长预期提升。然 而，不同金属因基本面差异而呈现显著分化态势。在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列第五期访谈中，新湖期货研究所有 色金属首席分析师孙匡文围绕铜、铝、镍、锡等主要品种的供需格局展开分析，解读在宏观政策与产业变迁双重影响下的有色 金属投资机会与风险。 孙匡文表示，传统消费领域如地产、基建等增长偏弱，但新能源与人工智能等新兴产业的快速发展，为铜、铝、锡注入了新的 消费增长动力，而铅、锌则未能明显受益。他认为，供应端约束是造成金属价格走势分化的关键。铜、锡面临矿端供应紧张的 局面，电解铝受限于国内产能天花板，锌、铅供应则总体宽松，镍国内外供应亦均显著过剩。因此，在宏观基调偏暖的背景 下，基本面占优的金属有望持续走强。孙匡文认为，从价格表现看，铜强于锡、锡强于铝、铝强于锌、锌强于镍。 铜市：三重因素共振 "锡市场受供应端影响较大。"孙匡文介绍，今年全球锡精矿产量下降，10月中国进口锡精矿同比下降22.36%。另外，加工费走 低，同样抑制锡精矿产量增长。 印度尼西亚等主要出口国的锡精矿受政策影响，出口不及预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles, adjusting the "zero emissions" target to a 90% reduction in emissions compared to 2021 levels, allowing for compensation through low-carbon steel and alternative fuels [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new proposal allows for the sale of plug-in hybrid vehicles, range-extended electric vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles after 2035 [1] - The reduction target for light commercial vehicles has been lowered from a 50% reduction by 2030 to a 40% reduction compared to 2021 levels [1] - Manufacturers of small economy electric vehicles produced in the EU can earn additional credits in carbon dioxide target accounting [1] Group 2: Industry Pressure - The policy adjustment comes in response to ongoing pressure from Germany, Italy, and the European automotive industry [1] - Industry stakeholders in the electric vehicle sector have warned that relaxing emission reduction targets may weaken investments and further hinder Europe's transition to electrification [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the National Healthcare Security Administration have allocated 416.6 billion yuan in advance for the 2026 urban and rural residents' basic medical insurance subsidy, urban medical assistance subsidy, and medical security service capacity construction funds [1] Group 1 - From 2018 to 2025, the central government will invest over 3 trillion yuan in medical security [1]