当前，全球经济为金属消费提供基础支撑，美国进入降息周期并重启扩表，国内政策持续发力，共同推动增长预期提升。然 而，不同金属因基本面差异而呈现显著分化态势。在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列第五期访谈中，新湖期货研究所有 色金属首席分析师孙匡文围绕铜、铝、镍、锡等主要品种的供需格局展开分析，解读在宏观政策与产业变迁双重影响下的有色 金属投资机会与风险。 孙匡文表示，传统消费领域如地产、基建等增长偏弱，但新能源与人工智能等新兴产业的快速发展，为铜、铝、锡注入了新的 消费增长动力，而铅、锌则未能明显受益。他认为，供应端约束是造成金属价格走势分化的关键。铜、锡面临矿端供应紧张的 局面，电解铝受限于国内产能天花板，锌、铅供应则总体宽松，镍国内外供应亦均显著过剩。因此，在宏观基调偏暖的背景 下，基本面占优的金属有望持续走强。孙匡文认为，从价格表现看，铜强于锡、锡强于铝、铝强于锌、锌强于镍。 铜市：三重因素共振 "锡市场受供应端影响较大。"孙匡文介绍，今年全球锡精矿产量下降，10月中国进口锡精矿同比下降22.36%。另外，加工费走 低，同样抑制锡精矿产量增长。 印度尼西亚等主要出口国的锡精矿受政策影响，出口不及预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission has proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of new fossil fuel vehicles, adjusting the "zero emissions" target to a 90% reduction in emissions compared to 2021 levels, allowing for compensation through low-carbon steel and alternative fuels [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new proposal allows for the sale of plug-in hybrid vehicles, range-extended electric vehicles, mild hybrid vehicles, and internal combustion engine vehicles after 2035 [1] - The reduction target for light commercial vehicles has been lowered from a 50% reduction by 2030 to a 40% reduction compared to 2021 levels [1] - Manufacturers of small economy electric vehicles produced in the EU can earn additional credits in carbon dioxide target accounting [1] Group 2: Industry Pressure - The policy adjustment comes in response to ongoing pressure from Germany, Italy, and the European automotive industry [1] - Industry stakeholders in the electric vehicle sector have warned that relaxing emission reduction targets may weaken investments and further hinder Europe's transition to electrification [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the National Healthcare Security Administration have allocated 416.6 billion yuan in advance for the 2026 urban and rural residents' basic medical insurance subsidy, urban medical assistance subsidy, and medical security service capacity construction funds [1] Group 1 - From 2018 to 2025, the central government will invest over 3 trillion yuan in medical security [1]

据新华社电 记者17日获悉，工业和信息化部将加紧谋划"十五五"重点任务，加强基础研究积累和关键 共性技术攻关，推进仪器仪表整机、零部件和元器件、软件和标准、材料与耗材等全链条突破。 工业和信息化部部长李乐成日前主持召开仪器仪表领域中小企业圆桌会时说，高端仪器仪表是支撑科学 研究、经济发展、国防建设、民生保障的战略性、基础性和先导性产业，是我国工业的"蓝海"，具有广 泛的需求和广阔的发展空间。 李乐成表示，下一步将健全完善中试验证体系，培育建设一批性能评价和检测认证平台；加快推进市场 应用，推动高端产品在应用中迭代提升；进一步发挥企业创新主体作用，鼓励加大研发投入，加强产业 链上下游协同，培育一批龙头企业、专精特新企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic options market is experiencing significant growth in both quality and trading volume, driven by increased participation from professional investors and industry enterprises, with the introduction of the "Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Options Special Award" further promoting this development [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading volume of soda ash options reached 13.6943 million contracts, with a transaction value of 3.741 billion yuan during the competition, indicating high market participation [1] - The demand for risk management tools among enterprises in the soda ash industry has increased due to price volatility and high inventory levels, leading to a significant rise in soda ash options trading [1][3] Group 2: Participant Insights - Current participants in the soda ash options market primarily include upstream producers, traders, and downstream glass manufacturers, with a notable increase in participation from industry enterprises [2] - The flexibility of options strategies aligns well with the needs of small and medium-sized enterprises, attracting more industry players to engage in the market [2] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Soda ash options have become a crucial tool for industry enterprises to manage operational costs, especially as price fluctuations directly impact downstream glass manufacturers [2][3] - Enterprises can utilize options to hedge against price increases, with strategies such as buying call options to mitigate raw material price risks [2][3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future focus for soda ash options includes enhancing industry chain collaboration, innovating embedded trading models, and strengthening training for small and micro enterprises [4] - The "Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Options Special Award" plays a vital role in market cultivation, talent selection, and deepening integration between the market and industry, fostering long-term stability [4] Group 5: Talent Development - Companies like Yuntu Holdings are beginning to build a talent pool for options-related expertise, establishing risk control processes to lay the foundation for a professional options team [5] - The provision of personalized and professional options services is expected to help industry enterprises effectively reduce price risks and enhance operational stability and efficiency [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Futures Exchange has issued a market risk warning, highlighting the presence of numerous uncertainties affecting market operations and significant price fluctuations in related products [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent market conditions have been characterized by high volatility in prices of various products [1] - The exchange emphasizes the need for market participants to enhance risk prevention measures and engage in rational and compliant market participation [1] Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The Guangxi Futures Exchange will continue to strengthen daily supervision and rigorously investigate various violations to maintain normal market order [1]

海南自贸港封关后，普通交易者在海南开户、进行期货交易有没有变化？国新国证期货副总经理项泓瑜 给出明确答案：海南自贸港封关后，在海南进行期货交易的规则和机制都不会变，依然遵循国家相关法 律法规和交易所规定。 12月18日，海南自贸港将正式启动全岛封关。 海南自贸港封关后，普通交易者在海南开户、进行期货交易有没有变化？海南自贸港吸引外资和方便跨 境投资的金融政策将给期货公司带来哪些机遇？带着相关问题，期货日报记者采访了国新国证期货、中 信建投（601066）期货等机构的专业人士。 期货开户和交易，一切照旧 真正的变化，藏在自贸港政策框架带来的结构性机遇中。 有人可能认为"封关"是"关起门"，其实恰恰相反，"封关"是"开大窗"。对期货市场来说，核心是"跨 境"二字，体现在资金流动、市场开放两大方面。 项泓瑜解释，届时，依托"一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由"的监管框架，海南期货市场将迎来突破。一 方面，跨境资金流动更便利，自贸港推动跨境贸易和投融资结算便利化，有利于境外投资者参与境内特 定品种期货交易和交割。比如，洋浦的天然橡胶期货交割仓库、原油期货交割仓库在封关后依托"一线 放开"的物流便利，交割效率将进一步提升。另 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) is enhancing its regulatory measures to ensure market stability and high-quality development, focusing on early detection and management of abnormal trading behaviors [1][2]. Regulatory Actions - GFEX has processed 15 cases of abnormal trading since December, identifying 3 groups of accounts with actual control relationships involving 10 clients [1]. - Regulatory measures include a 6-month trading restriction for 2 groups of 7 clients and the cancellation of hedging quotas for 1 client [1]. - The exchange has initiated investigations into 2 cases of violations and imposed disciplinary actions on 4 cases of abnormal trading [1]. Market Impact - The exchange's recent self-regulatory announcements highlight the enforcement of trading limits, particularly in the context of uncertainties affecting the polysilicon futures and spot markets [1]. - Industry insiders emphasize the importance of compliance with futures market regulations and the need for proper reporting of actual control relationships to maintain market order [2]. Future Plans - GFEX plans to continue strengthening its regulatory efforts, enhancing market monitoring, and rigorously combating violations to uphold market order [2].

12月17日，A股上市公司江特电机公告称，宜春市自然资源局网站于近日发布了《关于拟公告注销27个采矿权的公示》（下称《公示》），公司的 江西省宜丰县狮子岭矿区含锂瓷石矿是本次公示拟注销的27个采矿权之一。公司已向宜春市自然资源局提交了《关于宜丰县狮子岭矿区含锂瓷石矿 拟注销公示的异议申请》，提出相关解决方案，尽最大努力争取延续狮子岭矿区采矿证。同时，公司正在全力办理茜坑锂矿投产前的各项准备工 作，力争早日投产。 据了解，此次狮子岭矿区采矿权拟注销，是当地自然资源部门依据矿产资源相关法规开展的集中清理工作，27个采矿权一同被列入拟注销名单。期 货日报记者查询宜春市自然资源局发布的《公示》获悉，根据《中华人民共和国矿产资源法》《矿产资源开采登记管理办法》和《自然资源部关于 进一步完善矿产资源勘查开采登记管理的通知》等相关要求，拟对高安市伍桥瓷石矿等27宗采矿许可证予以注销。目前，宜春市自然资源局已对拟 注销的27宗采矿许可证进行公示，公示期（30个工作日）满后予以公告注销。注销后，生态修复等相关义务由原矿权人履行。 | 索 引 号： | 0147175710/2025-0171744 | 发布机构： | 宜春市自 ...

美联储于12月宣布降息25个基点，并预期在2026年、2027年各降息一次。市场关注点转向下任美联储主 席人选。无论最终人选是谁，市场已开始预期2026年可能存在至少两次降息。需要注意的是，新任主席 或理事在联邦公开市场委员会中仅拥有一票或少数票，其决策仍将受美国消费端通胀可能反弹的制约。 此外，美联储将于12月12日起启动每月400亿美元的短期国债购买，并暗示在2026年一季度维持较高购 买规模，之后可能逐步放缓至每月200亿~250亿美元，旨在维持银行体系准备金充裕，应对明年4月的 税期流动性压力。此举属于技术性扩表，一方面适应经济增长带来的货币需求，另一方面回填此前量化 紧缩（QT）可能留下的流动性缺口。据巴克莱和摩根大通等机构预测，美联储2026年可能发行约5000 亿美元的短期国债，这被市场解读为积极的流动性投放信号。 全球主要经济体财政政策呈现宽松趋势。德国推出总额约9000亿欧元的投资计划，涵盖国防与公共基础 设施；美国未来十年债务上限提高5万亿美元，财政赤字预计增加；日本批准约21.3万亿日元的经济刺 激方案；英国亦扩大财政"缓冲空间"，政府借款预计增加。多国同步的财政扩张预期，可能推动全球经 ...