AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普定于周五在阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京会面，特朗普承诺，如果普京不达成能为乌克兰 带来和平的协议，将面临"非常严重的后果"。 原油价格在三年半前俄罗斯进入乌克兰时曾大幅飙升，而根据周五峰会的进展，油价有可能会出现大幅 波动。 Capital.com的高级市场分析师Daniela Sabin Hathorn在一份报告中表示，如果美国和俄罗斯宣布达成一 项"建设性协议"，其中包括对俄罗斯石油出口的部分制裁减免，市场很可能会消化全球供应增加的预 期，从而导致原油价格走低。 但ClearView Energy Partners的研究主管兼董事总经理Kevin Book在一次采访中表示，"实现能让俄罗斯 能源产品重返其原有市场的和平协议将是一件难事，前进的道路上有很多障碍，尤其是欧盟的第18轮制 裁及其之前的制裁措施。" 另一种可能性是，特朗普与普京的会晤进展不顺，随后美国和欧洲对俄罗斯的制裁进一步升级。 除了在当地时间周三对记者表示普京可能面临"非常严重的后果"外，特朗普还将周五的峰会描绘成通往 另一场包括乌克兰总统泽连斯基在内的峰会的方式。 "这将 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 8月14日，上证指数一度突破3700点整数关口，续刷近四年新高，并冲击九连阳。 上一个交易日，沪指突破了去年"924"行情后的阶段高点，创下2021年12月以来的新高，市场成交活 跃，交易量突破2.1万亿元。 当日，素有"牛市旗手"之称的券商股也表现突出。49只券商及券商概念股中，48只收涨，1只平盘，其 中长城证券和国盛金控涨停。 中金公司分析称，近期A股的强劲表现由多方面因素促成，乐观情绪下本轮行情尚未结束，今年A股市 场更像"增强版2013"。 资金面上，中金指出，居民储蓄存款增长叠加"资产荒"，股市吸引力提升，且近期A股资金面筹码结构 改善，早期入场投资者整体转为浮盈，新入场投资者也处于浮盈状态，显示当前位置有较好的赚钱效 应。 而在业绩方面，中金认为，今年A股市场整体盈利增速有望结束"四年连降"转为正增长，上市公司盈利 变化对指数表现形成支撑。外部环境上，8月12日中美发布联合声明暂停实施24%的关税90天，美国7月 CPI低于预期，通胀不高加大美国9月降息概率，均对中国资产形成正向支持。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅表示，这是财政政策 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 由于利率制定委员会对其下一步行动仍存在分歧，美联储主席鲍威尔很可能会打压投资者日益增长的9 月降息预期。 最新就业报告的修正数据显示薪资增长疲软，加上通胀并未如预期般快速上升，这已让市场参与者相 信，鲍威尔无法再推迟降息。来自白宫和财政部长贝森特的持续压力更是加剧了这一局面。 今年以来，美联储一直维持利率稳定，担心更高的通胀会出现。 根据亚特兰大联储的数据，市场目前认为12月降息25个基点的可能性为65%，降息50个基点的可能性为 15%。 但专家表示，鲍威尔可能会试图为这些预期降温。这位美联储主席不希望市场认为降息已是板上钉钉。 美国银行证券前首席经济学家Ethan Harris表示，如果市场在9月16-17日美联储会议前就完全消化了降息 预期，那么央行将很难决定维持利率不变。 他说，美联储不喜欢给市场带来意外。 摩根士丹利财富管理首席经济策略师Ellen Zentner说，"现在最值得关注的是……美联储官员是否会反驳 市场预期，"届时预计不支持9月降息的美联储官员也将公开发表讲话。"如果他们认为市场错了，他们 会站出来发声，因为引导市场预期是他们的 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $124,000, reflecting a growing interest in risk investments in global markets [1] - The S&P 500 index has also been on an upward trend, closing at record highs for two consecutive trading days [3] - Year-to-date, Bitcoin has increased by 31% and has risen 60% since its market low in April [4] Group 2 - President Trump's recent executive order may increase demand for cryptocurrencies by allowing 401(k) plans to hold them [5] - Companies are adopting a strategy of accumulating cryptocurrencies, which has boosted demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum [5] - The correlation between cryptocurrencies and stock markets has been positive, with Ethereum showing a stronger relationship with the stock market than Bitcoin [7] Group 3 - Recent U.S. inflation data met expectations, reinforcing market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] - This environment is encouraging capital to flow from blue-chip stocks to more volatile digital tokens [6] - The current market rally is characterized by structural buying from asset management firms, corporations, and sovereign entities, rather than just retail enthusiasm [7]

Economic Indicators - The M2 money supply in China grew by 8.8% year-on-year as of the end of July, with new social financing totaling 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, an increase of 5.12 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [12] - In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with some officials suggesting a potential reduction of 50 basis points [11][10] Oil Market - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for the next two years while raising the supply growth forecast, predicting a record oversupply in global oil markets next year [11] - Russia plans to extend its oil production cuts through the remainder of 2025 to compensate for previous overproduction beyond OPEC+ quotas [11] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.04%, the S&P 500 by 0.32%, and the Nasdaq by 0.14% [4] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged by 2.58%, with significant gains in technology stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent, which rose over 6% and 4.74% respectively [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly four-year high, closing up 0.48% [5] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil fell by 0.6% to $62.08 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped by 0.55% to $65.34 per barrel [4][7] - Spot gold rose by 0.23% to $3,355.83 per ounce, and spot silver increased by 1.58% to $38.48 per ounce [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has continued to strengthen, surpassing $123,000, while Ethereum reached $4,700, marking its highest level since December 2021 [6]

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing call within the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to abandon the vague inflation indicator known as "potential inflation," as concerns about second-round price effects rise, prompting some members to advocate for a more hawkish communication strategy and a clearer path for future interest rate hikes [1][4] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Some BOJ members are urging a shift in focus from "potential inflation" to actual price changes and inflation expectations, highlighting the need to address the risks of rising prices [1][4] - The core consumer inflation in Japan rose by 3.3% year-on-year in June, exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, primarily driven by an 8.2% increase in food prices [4] Group 2: Policy Communication - The BOJ's current communication strategy is under scrutiny, with some members suggesting that the concept of "potential inflation" may not align with reality, indicating a potential shift in messaging as the next interest rate hike approaches [5] - There is a lack of consensus within the BOJ regarding a comprehensive adjustment of the communication strategy, although some members are publicly calling for a more hawkish stance [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The BOJ's pessimistic sentiment regarding the economic outlook has eased following a trade agreement with the United States in July, but concerns about persistent inflation remain [3][4] - The BOJ has indicated readiness for further interest rate hikes, but external factors, such as U.S. tariffs, complicate the timing of these decisions [3]

Group 1 - The EU allies are considering a gradual easing of sanctions on Russia if a comprehensive ceasefire agreement can be reached, with an initial 15-day ceasefire period during which sanctions would still be effective [2] - Italy is pushing for European involvement in discussions between the US and Russia regarding Ukraine, emphasizing the need for clear military, economic, and political guarantees for Ukraine [2] - The US government has been reported to consider easing sanctions, particularly on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, although this has been denied by US officials [2] Group 2 - The potential easing of sanctions may not be a strong enough incentive for Putin, as European cooperation is essential for Russia to gain substantial benefits [3] - The Russian economy has faced significant challenges due to sanctions, with a sharp decline in energy sales to Europe and exclusion from international payment systems, yet the IMF predicts a modest growth rate of about 1% over the next three years [3] - Despite a two-thirds reduction in European gas imports from Russia, the revenue from fossil fuels remains resilient, with daily earnings in July reported at €585 million, which is less than half of early 2022 levels [3] Group 3 - The EU aims to eliminate Russian imports by 2027, making it unlikely to significantly increase energy purchases from Russia [4] - The EU is cautious about actions that could support Putin's military expansion, such as restoring access to the SWIFT payment system or unfreezing the Central Bank of Russia's assets [4] - The best strategy for the US to achieve peace may involve threatening more severe sanctions, although there is little interest from the US administration in such measures [4]

在"让美国再次伟大"（MAGA）的阵营中，上周被特朗普提名进入美联储高层的白宫经济学家斯蒂芬· 米兰（Stephen Miran）是个不可小觑的人物。 米兰一直是支持特朗普全面经济议程的核心声音，后者称赞他"杰出"且"无人能及"。但获得美联储提名 所需的特质，与在该央行内部取得成功所需的特质并不相同。 米兰被提名接替库格勒——她在任期还剩6个月时从美联储辞职。这意味着，若获参议院确认，米兰在 美联储理事会的任期仅至2026年1月31日。他非主流的经济观点将在参议院银行委员会的确认听证会上 充分展现——这些观点将使他与委员会其他成员格格不入。 与包括美联储内部人士在内的多数主流经济学家不同，米兰认为，特朗普对美国贸易伙伴广泛加征的关 税不会引发通胀。这一观点意味着，美联储本应在今年早些时候就已降息，正如特朗普数月来一直大声 呼吁的那样。 就在周二，他还在强化这一立场。 "仍完全没有任何证据显示存在关税引发的通胀，"米兰告诉CNBC，"我认为，许多预期会出现这种情 况、预测前景黯淡的人，他们的判断从未兑现，而且还会继续落空。" 米兰去年还与人合著一篇论文，主张反对美联储独立性，不过他在近期言论中语气有所转变。目前 ...

Group 1 - BlackRock anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with a reasonable basis for a 50 basis point reduction [1] - Barclays suggests that Stephen Milan could be a dark horse candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, given his close ties to Trump and potential for indefinite tenure if confirmed [1] - Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle in September, with subsequent cuts in December and March of the following year [2] Group 2 - ING analysts believe that even if inflation exceeds expectations, any gains in the dollar may be temporary, as labor market data is deemed more influential [3] - CICC reports that the core CPI in the U.S. rebounded to 3.1%, indicating a structural upward trend in inflation, which may increase internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [4] - CICC also highlights that the global leading large models are expected to enter a period of intensive releases, particularly with the anticipated launch of GPT-5 [5] Group 3 - Huatai Securities maintains its prediction of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, citing moderate inflation transmission from tariffs [6] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement three consecutive rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, due to stable service inflation prospects [7] - CITIC Securities also projects a 2.5% positive growth in China's exports in the second half of the year, driven by trends in corporate overseas expansion and technological advancements [8]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that current interest rates are "restrictively high" and suggested a reduction of 150-175 basis points [1] - Bessent predicts that the Federal Reserve may initiate a series of rate cuts in the coming months, with a 50 basis point cut likely in September [1] - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is 4.25%-4.5% [1] Group 2 - Following lower-than-expected inflation data in July, market expectations for a September rate cut surged to 96% [2] - Bessent advocates for an aggressive 50 basis point cut, while analysts warn that rising core inflation at 3.1% and upcoming employment data may delay decisions [2] - Political pressure from the White House, particularly from President Trump, is influencing the Fed's decision-making process [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's investment strategy head Elyse Ausenbaugh suggests that the Fed is more likely to act in the fourth quarter unless there is a significant deterioration in future data [3] - The upcoming employment data is expected to play a crucial role in determining the Fed's policy direction [3] - Bessent emphasized the need for reliable data in employment reports and supports the continuation of these reports [3]