美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布利率决议，30分钟后美联储主席 鲍威尔将召开会后新闻发布会。尽管不太可能出台重大政策决定，但本周的会议仍充满看点。 几乎可以肯定的是，美联储的表述将与6月会议大同小异——声明内容变动不大，官员们连续第五次会 议暂缓降息。然而，几个耐人寻味的支线剧情将上演。 沃勒和鲍曼在会议前均主张降息，称鉴于关税对通胀的传导尚未显现，且如沃勒两周前在演讲中所描述 的，劳动力市场"处于边缘"，此时是美联储宽松的时机。 "通胀接近目标，通胀上行风险有限，我们不应等到劳动力市场恶化才降息，"沃勒在题为《现在就该降 息的理由》的演讲中表示。 这些言论可能会引起特朗普共鸣，不过CNBC对市场专家和经济学家的调查显示，仅14%的人认为沃勒 会获得提名，接替2026年5月任期届满的鲍威尔。排在沃勒之前的热门人选包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特 （Scott Bessent）、前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）。 特朗普曾呼吁鲍威尔辞职，甚至威胁解雇他（后作罢），并将FOMC拒绝降息归咎于这位央行领导人。 ...

投资者正准备迎接美国市场的"关键三天"，一系列经济事件、企业财报以及特朗普即将到来的关税大限 将考验华尔街的决心。 近几周，美国股市从4月低点反弹，创下一系列历史新高，涨势动力来自两方面：一是尽管特朗普发起 贸易战，美国经济仍显韧性；二是市场乐观认为人工智能将推动美国巨头企业实现强劲增长。 这一进展促使华尔街投行经济学家下调了潜在经济衰退的概率。4月2日"解放日"后，衰退概率曾被大幅 上调。 亚特兰大联储预测，第二季度GDP年化增长率约为2.9%，这主要反映了进口下降。第一季度与企业囤 积相关的进口激增曾拉低GDP。 尽管特朗普坚持认为借贷成本应低得多，但外界普遍预计，美联储在周三结束的两天会议上，将维持利 率在4.25%-4.5%区间不变。 投资者将关注联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的分歧是否扩大：主席鲍威尔等人希望先评估关税对通 胀的影响，再从限制性水平降息；另一部分人则希望立即降息。 但琼斯交易公司（Jones Trading）的迈克·奥罗克（Mike O'Rourke）表示，本周"可能是今年最关键的一 周"。 密集数据将从美东时间周三上午开始发布：先公布美国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP），几小时后美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's unexpected shortening of the deadline for imposing the most severe oil export sanctions on Russia may compel investors to start pricing in this significant tail risk [1][2] Group 1: Sanctions and Market Impact - Trump has given Moscow 10 to 12 days to reach a peace agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, or else he will impose a secondary tariff of 100% on Russian oil buyers, significantly reducing the previous 50-day deadline set on July 14 [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in June, Russia's daily crude oil exports were 4.68 million barrels (approximately 4.5% of global demand), and refined product exports were 2.5 million barrels, indicating potential disruptions to global oil supply [1] - The potential implementation of secondary tariffs could lead to a spike in oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S., despite Trump's previous mixed signals regarding his threats [2][3] Group 2: Global Oil Supply Dynamics - The effectiveness of the secondary tariff as a financial weapon remains uncertain, but India, the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil in June at 1.5 million barrels per day, may reconsider its trade relations with Moscow due to ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth will be 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, the lowest since 2009, while supply is expected to increase significantly by 2.1 million barrels per day to 105.1 million barrels per day this year [5] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, leading to a decrease in remaining capacity, yet Saudi Arabia still has 2.3 million barrels per day of capacity that can be brought online within 90 days [5] Group 3: Russian Response and Market Reactions - Any sanctions that limit Russia's oil revenue, which constitutes 30% to 50% of the federal budget, may provoke a strong response from President Putin [5] - Recent actions by Russia, such as temporarily banning foreign tankers from loading crude oil at major Black Sea ports, indicate Moscow's willingness to retaliate against Western measures [6] - Trump's latest threat may be seen as bluster, but it has nonetheless shortened the fuse on a potential crisis in the oil market [7]

第一波海啸已于当地时间上午9点55分袭击日本北部北海道县的花崎港，至少四处地区观测到海啸到 达，海浪高度约为30厘米。日本气象厅警告称，海啸浪潮可能反复袭来，且第二波海啸浪潮通常比第一 波更高，撤离应持续到海啸预警解除。 此外，东京湾和大阪也发布了海啸预警，预计海浪高度可达1米。日本放送协会NHK已中断正常节目， 转而播报海啸预警信息，并敦促沿海居民迅速撤离。 东京电力公司宣布，鉴于气象厅向福岛县发布海啸提醒信息，已于上午9点05分暂停福岛第一核电站处 理水排海。 美国西海岸（包括加利福尼亚州、俄勒冈州和华盛顿州等）、阿拉斯加和夏威夷发布海啸警报。夏威夷 檀香山应急管理部要求部分沿海地区疏散，预计海啸将于当地时间周二晚上7:17抵达夏威夷。美国气象 部门还指出，菲律宾、俄罗斯以及雅浦地区、马绍尔群岛等太平洋岛国也可能面临海啸威胁。 2025年7月30日，俄罗斯远东堪察加半岛东部海域发生8.7级地震，震中位于堪察加彼得罗巴甫洛夫斯克 以东136公里处，震源深度为18千米。此次地震是该地区数十年来最强的一次，目前暂无人员伤亡报 告，但萨哈林岛的一个小镇已下令疏散。 地震发生后，俄罗斯远东堪察加地区发布海啸警报，州 ...

Group 1 - A U.S. senator is attempting to strip the Federal Reserve of a key tool for controlling interest rates, indicating potential scrutiny of the tools policymakers use to influence the economy [1] - The senator's efforts, led by Ted Cruz, aim to terminate the Fed's payment of interest on bank reserves, which could significantly alter how the Fed manages interest rates and its large bond holdings [1][2] - Since 2022, the Fed has reduced its bond holdings by over $2 trillion, with estimates suggesting that the reduction will end when its balance sheet decreases from $6.7 trillion to approximately $6.1 trillion [4] Group 2 - The current interest rate control mechanism, established during the 2008 financial crisis, has been criticized for being an unfair subsidy to the financial sector and has led the Fed to shift from profit to loss [2] - Former Fed officials express concerns that losing the power to pay interest on reserves could force the Fed to aggressively withdraw excess liquidity, potentially leading to higher short-term interest rates [3] - There is a divergence of opinions regarding the appropriate size of the Fed's balance sheet, with some suggesting it could be reduced to $5.9 trillion, while others advocate for a more aggressive reduction to curb speculation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of U.S. tariffs under President Trump's policy is leading companies to pass increased costs onto American consumers, impacting their profit margins and operational space [2][3]. Group 1: Company Responses - Procter & Gamble (P&G) plans to raise prices on about 25% of its products in the U.S. market to offset new tariff costs, indicating a dual approach of cost-cutting and price increases [3][4]. - Other companies, such as EssilorLuxottica and Swatch, have also begun to implement price increases, with Swatch reporting a 5% price hike with no negative impact on sales [8]. Group 2: Market Impact - Despite a rise in U.S. stock indices driven by technology investments, many consumer goods companies are struggling, with P&G's stock down 19% since the tariff announcement [5]. - The anticipated total loss for companies due to tariffs is estimated to be between $7.1 billion and $8.3 billion for the year [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are currently not feeling the effects of the tariff increases, but inflationary pressures are expected to emerge once company inventories are depleted, likely in Q4 or early next year [7]. - There is a cautious attitude among North American consumers towards price increases, which may affect sales for major brands [5].

尽管投资者将仔细研读鲍威尔周四凌晨的发言，希望找到美联储即将降息的蛛丝马迹，但他们可能会失望。 外界普遍预计，政策制定者在7月议息会议结束时，将连续第五次维持利率不变。一名或多名官员的反对票可能释放信 号：联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）部分成员更倾向于尽早降息，而非推迟。 但由于9月下次会议前将有大量经济数据公布，美联储主席可能选择保留政策选项，直至经济方向和政策路径更清晰。 "毫无疑问，FOMC将维持利率不变，"银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔·纳尔逊（Bill Nelson） 周二在报告中称。这位前美联储高级经济学家表示："问题在于，他们是否会传递出更倾向于9月降息的信号。" 美国总统特朗普仍在不断呼吁降息。鲍威尔肯定还会被问及美联储耗资25亿美元的办公楼翻新项目——这已成为共和党 攻击美联储的靶子。 美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布利率决议，鲍威尔将在30分钟后召开会后新闻发布会。 9月展望 本周会议后，美联储今年仅剩三次政策会议。6月时，美联储官员的中位数预测显示，2025年将降息两次（每次25个基 点）。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克（Veronica ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 光伏行业协会澄清反内卷相关传闻 今日优选 特朗普将对俄最后通牒期限缩短至10天 特朗普将在未来两周内宣布制药行业政策 印度或面临20%-25%的关税，但协议尚未敲定 美联储理事库格勒因私缺席本周议息会议 泰国军方：柬埔寨再次违反停火协议发动袭击 中美24%对等关税暂停如期展期 市场盘点 周二，随着投资者等待美联储利率决议、一系列重要经济数据以及美国贸易谈判的结果，美元指数延续涨势，盘中站上99关口，创五周新高，最终收涨 0.26%，报98.89。美债收益率集体回落，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.326%，2年期美债收益率收报3.875%。 现货黄金止步四连跌，一度触及3330美元关口，但未能站稳，最终收涨0.35%，收报3327.37美元/盎司；现货白银横盘震荡，最终收涨0.08%，报38.175美元/ 盎司。 由于特朗普加大了对俄达成和平协议的施压且全球贸易局势出现缓和迹象，国际原油大幅上行。WTI原油一度大涨4%，最终收涨3.31%，报68.878美元/桶， 创6月 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，将再给俄罗斯10天时间与乌克兰达成停火协议，这是其首次明确设定新期限以向 普京施压要求结束冲突。 "以今日为起点，10天期限。"特朗普在当地时间周二结束苏格兰五日访问返程时，在空军一号上对记者 作出上述表态。 本周一特朗普曾宣称将缩短给普京的期限，并威胁若俄方不采取停火行动将实施经济惩罚，但当时未明 确具体截止日期。其在7月14日最初设定的50天期限原定于9月2日到期，而新期限将提前至8月8日。 "我们将加征关税等惩罚措施，虽然不确定能否奏效——因为普京显然希望延续冲突。"特朗普周二表 示。此番言论刺激WTI原油价格突破69美元/桶关口，创下去年6月以色列空袭伊朗以来最大单日涨幅， 布伦特原油看涨期权溢价两周来首次超过看跌期权。 本月早些时候特朗普宣称，若俄罗斯拒绝停火呼吁将实施100%关税。其顾问团队透露，惩罚措施可能 采用二级制裁形式，针对购买俄罗斯石油等出口商品的国家。华盛顿及其盟友认为这类采购行为构成对 俄支持，变相提振俄罗斯经济并削弱制裁效果。 尽管特朗普此前多次威胁经济惩罚普京，但均未付诸实施，分析认为其意在保留谈判空间。 二级制裁可能波及印度和中国两大贸易伙伴，时值特朗普正寻 ...

Group 1 - The number of job openings in the U.S. decreased from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, below the market expectation of 7.5 million, indicating a cooling labor market but still a stable overall demand for workers [1] - The decline in job openings was broad-based, primarily driven by the accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance sectors [1] - The job openings remain above pre-pandemic average levels, suggesting a relatively healthy demand for workers despite a slowdown in hiring and longer time for unemployed individuals to find new positions [1] Group 2 - The hiring rate in June slowed to 3.3%, the lowest level since November of the previous year, while layoffs remained low and voluntary resignations were scarce, indicating decreased confidence in finding new jobs [1] - The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings remained at 1.1, down from a peak of 2:1 in 2022, which is closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials as a measure of labor supply and demand balance [2] - An independent report indicated that consumer confidence in July improved as concerns about the broader economy and labor market outlook eased [2]