美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上表示："8月1日截止日期就是8月1日截止——这坚如磐石，绝不延期。这 是美国的重大日子！！！" （文章来源：金十数据） ...

虽然中国光伏行业协会晚些时候发布澄清公告称"相关内容与实际情况严重不符"，但业内多方消息显 示，未点名具体澄清内容。新湖期货分析认为："虽然昨日光伏行业协会发文辟谣，但市场情绪仍对传 闻部分内容进行想象，驱动盘面持续上涨。" 多晶硅上涨更多是受政策预期驱动，而非基本面实质性改善？ 从供需基本面来看，多晶硅市场仍处于调整期。安泰科数据显示："本周多晶硅n型复投料成交均价为 4.71万元/吨，周环比上涨0.64%。n型颗粒硅成交均价为4.43万元/吨，周环比上涨0.68%。"硅业分会统 计显示："7月份国内多晶硅产量约10.78万吨，环比增加5.7%。1-7月份产量累计70.49万吨，同比减少 41.5%。" 周三，多晶硅再次迎来强势上涨行情，主力2509合约收盘大涨8.87%，盘中一度触及9%的涨停板，时隔 5天再次涨停，增仓23849手，显示出市场强烈的做多情绪；截至目前，多晶硅本月累计涨幅已接近 70%！现货市场方面，多晶硅N型致密料主流价格维持在46.5元/kg，N型复投料主流价格47元/kg，整体 持稳运行。 政治局会议再提"反内卷"，多晶硅尾盘强势触及涨停！ 市场分析认为，此次多晶硅价格异动的主要驱动 ...

Group 1 - Eurozone economy unexpectedly expanded by 0.1% in Q2, contrary to analysts' expectations of zero growth [1] - Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% during the same period, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1] - France's economy grew by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 0.1% [1] - Spain's economy grew by 0.7% in Q2, up from 0.6% in Q1, continuing its role as a growth engine in the region [1] Group 2 - European Central Bank (ECB) maintains interest rates at 2%, with inflation nearing the 2% medium-term target [1] - ECB President Lagarde noted that the eurozone's economic performance has been slightly better than the bank's expectations for the year [1] - Deka Bank's chief economist highlighted the ongoing weakness in Germany's economic momentum compared to other European countries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has underperformed against major currencies over the past three months, facing further downside risks due to increasing political uncertainties and potential government spending increases following election outcomes [1] Group 1: Currency Performance and Predictions - Strategists are bearish on the yen, predicting that election results will lead to increased government spending, while U.S. tariffs may slow down interest rate hikes [1] - The yen has depreciated over 5% against the dollar since peaking in April, driven by concerns over Japanese elections [3] - The ratio of bullish to bearish bets on the dollar-yen pair is close to four to one, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2: Political Factors and Economic Implications - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's poor polling results have raised concerns that Prime Minister Kishida may resort to populist spending measures to secure support for his weakened coalition [1] - Analysts suggest that if Kishida were to step down, he might be replaced by Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of fiscal and monetary stimulus, which could lead to more expansionary fiscal policies [3] - Barclays strategists predict that if expansionary fiscal policies are implemented, the dollar-yen exchange rate could rise above 150 [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Central Bank Decisions - Traders are closely watching the upcoming Bank of Japan policy decision for clues on future monetary policy, with a 73% probability of a rate hike by year-end priced into the overnight index swap market [4] - Some strategists believe that the recent U.S. tariffs, while lower than initially threatened, will still impact the Japanese economy, leading to a potential depreciation of the yen beyond 150 [5] - The market sentiment indicates that the recent strong performance of the dollar may be temporary, with some analysts remaining cautiously optimistic about the yen's future [3]

美联储理事沃勒在最近一次讲话中表示："私营部门就业增长已接近停滞速度。"沃勒在讲话中强调了降 低利率的理由。"其他数据表明，劳动力市场的下行风险有所增加。鉴于通胀已接近目标水平，且通胀 上行风险有限，我们不应等到劳动力市场恶化才下调政策利率。" 许多华尔街经济学家和美联储决策者预计今年失业率将攀升。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Nancy Vanden Houten在上周五发布的一份研究报告中表示，牛津经济研究院预计劳动力市场状况将有所疲 软，关税的影响将开始渗透到通胀和实际消费支出中。 美国银行对周五的就业报告期望不高，该行预计7月份非农就业人数将增加6万人，低于增加10万人的普 遍预期。 "如果该预测是正确的，市场的下意识反应可能会是鸽派的，"美国经济学家Aditya Bhave在周二的一份 报告中说。"然而，我们鼓励投资者更多地关注私营部门的就业增长和失业率。" 他指出，尽管6月份政府就业人数大幅增加，但这似乎是一种季节性扭曲。他预测，美国劳工统计局7月 份的数据将显示政府总就业人数减少2.5万人。 Bhave表示，更重要的故事在于私营部门的就业数据。"我们认为私营部门的就业人数将从6月份的+7.4 万 ...

鸽派 1. 美联储古尔斯比：未来一年利率有望大幅下降。如果不确定性消除，降息是有可能实现的。 2. 美联储理事鲍曼：现在是考虑调整政策利率的时候了，若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，可能会降 息。 3. 美联储理事沃勒：7月降息25个基点合理，劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现，不应等到劳动力市场恶 化后才下调利率。 中间派 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔：预期夏季期间将出现更高的通胀水平。无法断言7月降息是否过早，不排除任何 一次会议，决策将取决于数据。 2. 美联储威廉姆斯：关税可能进一步推高通胀，目前的利率立场仍完全是合适的。需要看到更多数据， 才能决定下一步政策。 3. 美联储柯林斯：现在是美联储在货币政策方面保持积极耐心的时候，坚实的经济为美联储争取了时 间，以决定下一步行动。 4. 美联储巴尔：关税将对通胀施加上行压力，可能会带来一定的持续性。货币政策已处于良好位置，准 备等待以观察经济状况的变化。 （文章来源：金十数据） 5. 美联储哈玛克：我们尚未达到通胀目标，且不确定关税会有什么影响，保持货币政策的收紧仍然非常 重要。目前尚无迫切降息的必要。（2026年票委） 6. 美联储戴利：通胀前景一直不稳定，无法证明 ...

SHMET 网讯：美国经济第二季度增速可能反弹，但进口波动扭曲数据真相，消费者支出仅温和增长，企业设备投资停滞，这些迹象显示经济健康度被 严重高估。 美国商务部将于周三发布的GDP初值报告将再现一季度（1-3月）的贸易数据失真现象——当时GDP出现三年来首次萎缩。经济学家指出，美国总统特 朗普的保护主义贸易政策（包括全面加征关税与暂缓提高税率）导致经济脉搏难以准确捕捉。 桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家斯蒂芬·斯坦利（Stephen Stanley）直言："连续两个季度的GDP总体数据都无法反映真实经济图景，特朗普政府不可 预测的关税策略已产生广泛涟漪效应，企业界因此陷入集体谨慎。" 路透调查显示，美国二季度GDP年化增速或达2.4%（一季度为下降0.5%），经济总量有望首次突破30万亿美元（未通胀调整）。但周二最新数据促使 部分经济学家将预测上调至3.3%——6月商品贸易逆差收窄至近两年最低，库存微增。 贸易在第一季度使GDP减少了创纪录的4.61个百分点。尽管预计会出现逆转，但部分增长可能被低库存所抵消，而低库存是外国商品流入减少的结果。 贸易和库存是GDP中最不稳定的组成部分。库存曾在今年第一季度为GDP ...

美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布利率决议，30分钟后美联储主席 鲍威尔将召开会后新闻发布会。尽管不太可能出台重大政策决定，但本周的会议仍充满看点。 几乎可以肯定的是，美联储的表述将与6月会议大同小异——声明内容变动不大，官员们连续第五次会 议暂缓降息。然而，几个耐人寻味的支线剧情将上演。 沃勒和鲍曼在会议前均主张降息，称鉴于关税对通胀的传导尚未显现，且如沃勒两周前在演讲中所描述 的，劳动力市场"处于边缘"，此时是美联储宽松的时机。 "通胀接近目标，通胀上行风险有限，我们不应等到劳动力市场恶化才降息，"沃勒在题为《现在就该降 息的理由》的演讲中表示。 这些言论可能会引起特朗普共鸣，不过CNBC对市场专家和经济学家的调查显示，仅14%的人认为沃勒 会获得提名，接替2026年5月任期届满的鲍威尔。排在沃勒之前的热门人选包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特 （Scott Bessent）、前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）。 特朗普曾呼吁鲍威尔辞职，甚至威胁解雇他（后作罢），并将FOMC拒绝降息归咎于这位央行领导人。 ...

投资者正准备迎接美国市场的"关键三天"，一系列经济事件、企业财报以及特朗普即将到来的关税大限 将考验华尔街的决心。 近几周，美国股市从4月低点反弹，创下一系列历史新高，涨势动力来自两方面：一是尽管特朗普发起 贸易战，美国经济仍显韧性；二是市场乐观认为人工智能将推动美国巨头企业实现强劲增长。 这一进展促使华尔街投行经济学家下调了潜在经济衰退的概率。4月2日"解放日"后，衰退概率曾被大幅 上调。 亚特兰大联储预测，第二季度GDP年化增长率约为2.9%，这主要反映了进口下降。第一季度与企业囤 积相关的进口激增曾拉低GDP。 尽管特朗普坚持认为借贷成本应低得多，但外界普遍预计，美联储在周三结束的两天会议上，将维持利 率在4.25%-4.5%区间不变。 投资者将关注联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的分歧是否扩大：主席鲍威尔等人希望先评估关税对通 胀的影响，再从限制性水平降息；另一部分人则希望立即降息。 但琼斯交易公司（Jones Trading）的迈克·奥罗克（Mike O'Rourke）表示，本周"可能是今年最关键的一 周"。 密集数据将从美东时间周三上午开始发布：先公布美国第二季度国内生产总值（GDP），几小时后美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's unexpected shortening of the deadline for imposing the most severe oil export sanctions on Russia may compel investors to start pricing in this significant tail risk [1][2] Group 1: Sanctions and Market Impact - Trump has given Moscow 10 to 12 days to reach a peace agreement regarding the Ukraine conflict, or else he will impose a secondary tariff of 100% on Russian oil buyers, significantly reducing the previous 50-day deadline set on July 14 [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in June, Russia's daily crude oil exports were 4.68 million barrels (approximately 4.5% of global demand), and refined product exports were 2.5 million barrels, indicating potential disruptions to global oil supply [1] - The potential implementation of secondary tariffs could lead to a spike in oil prices, further exacerbating inflation in the U.S., despite Trump's previous mixed signals regarding his threats [2][3] Group 2: Global Oil Supply Dynamics - The effectiveness of the secondary tariff as a financial weapon remains uncertain, but India, the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil in June at 1.5 million barrels per day, may reconsider its trade relations with Moscow due to ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The IEA forecasts that global oil demand growth will be 700,000 barrels per day in 2025, the lowest since 2009, while supply is expected to increase significantly by 2.1 million barrels per day to 105.1 million barrels per day this year [5] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, leading to a decrease in remaining capacity, yet Saudi Arabia still has 2.3 million barrels per day of capacity that can be brought online within 90 days [5] Group 3: Russian Response and Market Reactions - Any sanctions that limit Russia's oil revenue, which constitutes 30% to 50% of the federal budget, may provoke a strong response from President Putin [5] - Recent actions by Russia, such as temporarily banning foreign tankers from loading crude oil at major Black Sea ports, indicate Moscow's willingness to retaliate against Western measures [6] - Trump's latest threat may be seen as bluster, but it has nonetheless shortened the fuse on a potential crisis in the oil market [7]