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美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）周一解释了他为何认为美联储应该更积极地降低利率。他再 次辩称，美联储的政策立场对经济过于限制，并指出他对通胀持乐观态度，同时称劳动力市场存在预警 信号。 米兰表示，剔除这些因素后，他估计"潜在通胀率低于2.3%，与我们的目标值基本一致。如果由于2022 年的供需失衡或统计测量过程中的误差，不必要地维持紧缩政策，最终将会导致就业岗位减少。" "经验表明，劳动力市场恶化可能迅速且非线性地发生，并且难以逆转，"他说道。"部分原因是货币政 策存在几个季度的滞后性，因此，正如我一直倡导的那样，加快宽松政策的步伐将使我们更接近中性立 场。" 米兰对美联储上周降息25个基点的决定持反对意见，他更倾向于降息50个基点。自今年9月休假离任特 朗普总统高级顾问一职、加入美联储以来，这已是他第三次投出反对票。 在上周的会议上，米兰的两位同事持反对意见，认为根本不应该降息，因为通胀最近没有朝着美联储的 目标迈进，许多美联储官员将此归咎于他们认为与特朗普政府进口关税有关的商品价格上涨。 米兰表示，目前高于目标水平的通胀并未反映出潜在的供需动态，而这些动态正在推动通胀使其更接近 美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hungarian Forint has seen a significant increase in trading volume, more than doubling since January 2017, driven by U.S. President Trump's policies and the overall strong performance of emerging market currencies in 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Volume and Currency Performance - The daily trading volume of the Hungarian Forint has increased significantly, with a 20% appreciation against the U.S. dollar this year, potentially marking its best annual performance in 25 years [2]. - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index reached a historical high in July, with an overall increase of over 6% this year, indicating a strong performance for emerging market currencies [2][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The strengthening of emerging market currencies is attributed to increased volatility and a weakening U.S. dollar, prompting investors to reassess their exposure to dollar-denominated assets [5]. - Investors are diversifying their asset allocations, betting on the appreciation of currencies from developing countries like South Africa and Hungary [5]. Group 3: Risks and Economic Implications - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned about risks in the currency market, noting that a significant portion of forex trading is dominated by a few large banks, which could lead to market shocks if they reduce trading activities [8]. - The appreciation of local currencies can impact a country's export competitiveness while enhancing its ability to borrow and service debt [5]. Group 4: Future Trends and Predictions - Analysts expect the positive trend for emerging market currencies to continue into 2026, with increased demand for hedging and rising volatility [11]. - The Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real are also among the best-performing emerging market currencies this year, supported by robust central bank policies and high-interest rates [12].

Core Insights - Platinum prices have surged nearly 100% this year, breaking a stable price pattern, reflecting a significant shift in market supply dynamics and investor sentiment [1] - The industrial demand for platinum is increasing due to stricter emission standards in Europe, China, and India, which is expected to drive future demand growth [1][2] - Supply constraints are persistent, particularly from South Africa, which accounts for over 70% of global platinum production, facing issues like power shortages and rising operational costs [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The automotive industry's recovery is a key support for platinum demand, with demand in this sector rising from 2.77 million ounces in 2022-2023 to 3.21 million ounces [1] - The renewable energy market is projected to reach $4.9 trillion by 2033, further boosting platinum demand due to its critical role in clean energy technologies [2] - Investors are shifting towards platinum as it is perceived as undervalued compared to gold, which is nearing historical highs [3][5] Group 2: Supply Constraints - South African platinum production is expected to decline by 6.4% by 2025 due to ongoing challenges [2] - Geopolitical and logistical issues are also affecting platinum production in Russia and Zimbabwe, compounding supply challenges [2] - The depletion of inventories previously used to fill supply gaps is now a concern, indicating a tighter supply environment [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Technical Analysis - Platinum has successfully broken out of a long-term downtrend, with prices surpassing $1,000 and reaching over $1,740, marking the strongest rally since the COVID-19 pandemic [7][10] - The price has broken through multiple historical resistance levels, indicating a potential long-term bull market, with key targets at $1,900, $2,170, and $2,300 [8][10] - The gold-to-platinum ratio has decreased significantly, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards platinum, which is historically associated with substantial returns following such shifts [11][14] Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative policy and declining real yields are creating a favorable environment for precious metals, including platinum [3][5] - A weakening U.S. dollar has historically correlated with rising platinum prices, and the current downtrend in the dollar index is providing additional upward momentum for platinum [16][19]

Group 1 - Unicom Guowei has established a Central Research Institute focusing on the development of edge AI chips for applications in autonomous driving, embodied robots, and low-altitude flying vehicles [2] - The research will also include new types of storage devices based on two-dimensional materials and high-performance special sensor chips [2] - Aerospace Electronics plans to increase its investment in Aerospace Long March Rocket Technology Co., Ltd. by 728 million yuan, maintaining the existing shareholding structure [3] Group 2 - Aerospace Rainbow successfully completed the first flight test of its self-developed Rainbow-7 high-altitude, high-speed, long-endurance drone, achieving all preset parameters [4] - The project is still in the research and testing phase, with further rigorous testing and validation required before mass production [4] Group 3 - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary signed an exclusive licensing agreement for the GenSci098 injection project, potentially earning up to 1.365 billion USD in milestone payments [5] - The agreement includes an initial payment of 120 million USD and additional milestone payments related to development and commercialization [5] Group 4 - TCL Technology plans to acquire a 10.7656% stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Semiconductor for 6.045 billion yuan, increasing its ownership from 84.2105% to 94.9761% [26] - This acquisition aims to enhance TCL's competitiveness and profitability in the semiconductor display industry [26] Group 5 - Zhongmin Resources announced the successful ignition of its Tsumeb smelting plant's multi-metal comprehensive recycling project, with an annual processing capacity of 80,000 tons [11] - The project will produce various products, including germanium ingots and zinc ingots, with a design capacity of 33 tons/year for germanium [11] Group 6 - Xinhua Insurance reported a 16% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income, totaling 188.85 billion yuan from January to November 2025 [43] - This growth reflects the company's strong performance in the insurance market [43]

Group 1 - The G7 central banks are taking opposite actions regarding interest rates, with a focus on shorting the GBP/JPY exchange rate as a seemingly risk-free bet [2] - The GBP/JPY exchange rate has been rising despite the narrowing interest rate differential between the UK and Japan, which has decreased by 165 basis points since mid-last year [4][5] - The bond market reflects a similar trend, with the 2-year yield differential between UK and Japanese bonds halving since mid-2023, yet the GBP/JPY exchange rate has increased by 14% during the same period [6] Group 2 - The "real" yield differential has also narrowed, with the inflation-adjusted 5-year yield differential contracting by about 60 basis points [8] - The GBP/JPY exchange rate has cumulatively risen over 1% in the past 18 months and rebounded approximately 5% since mid-year, reaching its strongest level in 17 years [9] - The weakening of the yen is a significant factor, with the yen's effective exchange rate index dropping 30% since the pandemic, while the pound's effective exchange rate index has increased by 10% since 2020 [10] Group 3 - The OECD forecasts indicate that the GDP growth rates for the UK and Japan will be roughly equal this year, with slight acceleration for the UK in the next two years [12] - Diverging fiscal policies are playing a crucial role in the exchange rate movements, with the UK tightening its fiscal policy while Japan is initiating another round of government spending [15] - Japanese investors are major players in cross-border capital flows, holding nearly one-third of UK government bonds, with significant purchases occurring during political turmoil in Japan [17]

Core Insights - Hedge funds and trading companies are increasingly entering the physical commodities market, seeking new revenue sources despite lacking the decades of experience and information that established firms like Trafigura and Vitol possess [1][2] - The entry of these funds into the physical commodities market allows them to gain information advantages and increase their exposure to global price fluctuations [1][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Hedge funds such as Balyasny, Jain Global, and Qube are expanding their operations into the physical commodities market, including natural gas pipeline transportation rights and oil storage leasing [1] - The volatility in natural gas prices in 2022 led to significant profits for top traders, inspiring hedge funds to enter the market [2] - The performance of hedge funds and trading companies has been relatively flat in 2023 compared to 2022 due to narrower price fluctuations in oil and gas commodities [3] Group 2: Strategic Moves - Qube has entered the European physical power market through its affiliate Volta, which has applied to join NEPOOL to assist in setting market rules [2] - Citadel has made several acquisitions to bolster its trading business, including a $1.2 billion purchase of Paloma Natural Gas and the acquisition of FlexPower, which is involved in grid-scale battery project development [2] - Hedge funds are leveraging advanced analytics to predict electricity demand peaks, particularly in the physical power sector, which is seen as a lucrative opportunity [4] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The business model of physical trading requires hedge funds to take on unknown risks outside their traditional expertise, as evidenced by the collapse of Amaranth in the mid-2000s due to poor investment decisions in commodities [5] - There are concerns that hedge funds may struggle to compete with large commodity trading firms and oil companies that have substantial capital and control over the entire supply chain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is increasingly under threat as political influences grow, particularly with the upcoming retirement of Chairman Jerome Powell and the potential for President Trump to reshape the leadership and policies of the Fed [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Political Influence - The impending retirement of Jerome Powell presents an opportunity for President Trump to alter the leadership of the Federal Reserve, which has faced criticism since Powell's appointment in 2018 [2]. - Scott Bessent, a key figure in the selection process, is expected to exert significant influence over the choice of Powell's successor, with speculation that Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate [2][3]. - Trump has publicly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates quickly enough, indicating a desire for a more compliant Fed leadership [2][9]. Group 2: Criticism of Federal Reserve's Role - Bessent argues that the Federal Reserve has strayed from its original role, particularly during the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, where it expanded its influence without sufficient democratic oversight [3][7]. - The Fed's balance sheet has ballooned to $6.6 trillion, reflecting its expanded role in the economy, which has disproportionately benefited asset owners [3][6]. - Critics, including Bessent, suggest that the Fed has overestimated the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus while underestimating the impact of tax cuts and deregulation on economic growth [7]. Group 3: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The Fed's responsibilities have broadened post-2008 financial crisis, extending into areas like financial regulation and social issues, which some argue is beyond its mandate [7][8]. - There are calls to revisit the 1951 Federal Reserve-Treasury Agreement, which allowed the Fed to control its balance sheet independently, marking a significant step towards its independence [7][8]. - The Trump administration aims to align the Fed's regulatory agenda with White House priorities, including a push for lower interest rates and a shift in debt management responsibilities to the Treasury [8]. Group 4: Future Implications for the Federal Reserve - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to a concentration of power in the government during future economic crises, undermining the Fed's ability to manage inflation and maintain credit health [10]. - Trust and recognition from the public are essential for the Fed to effectively control inflation and ensure financial stability, which may be compromised under the current political climate [10].

Group 1 - The upcoming employment and inflation reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are expected to provide insights into the economic situation, but analysts warn that the delayed data may be biased and only partially reflect the economy's health [1][2] - The Federal Reserve recently voted to lower interest rates to a three-year low, revealing deep divisions within the central bank regarding whether to prioritize a weak job market or rising inflation [1][2] - The unprecedented government shutdown has exacerbated uncertainty, as data collection was paused, leading to delays and cancellations of key reports, complicating policymakers' understanding of the economy [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming employment data will cover November and part of October, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will only include November data, with October's report canceled [2] - Analysts indicate that the forthcoming employment and inflation data may contain biases due to the shutdown and necessary methodological adjustments, making it difficult to draw significant conclusions from the data for October, November, or December [2] - There is notable disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent and pace of potential interest rate cuts, particularly influenced by employment data, which could significantly impact future monetary policy [2]

Core Points - The EU is at a critical juncture, facing deadlines to fund Ukraine without U.S. assistance and to diversify its supply chains away from the U.S. while expanding trade with South American countries [2][3] - Failure in either area could damage the EU's reputation and reinforce claims of European "weakness" made by former U.S. President Trump [2][3] Funding Ukraine - The EU's preferred funding solution for Ukraine involves utilizing billions of frozen Russian assets, proposing to loan €90 billion (approximately $106 billion) to Ukraine over the next two years [3][4] - Belgium opposes this plan due to concerns about potential legal repercussions if Russia regains access to these assets [4] - The urgency is heightened as Ukraine is expected to run out of funds by April next year, necessitating a swift agreement from the EU [5] Trade with South America - The trade agreement with the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) is seen as a significant test of the EU's ability to provide a reliable alternative to U.S. influence [6][7] - This agreement is poised to be the largest in EU history and aims to counteract Trump's attempts to assert U.S. dominance in Latin America [7] - Concerns from France about domestic agricultural protests could delay the signing of the agreement, which is critical for maintaining EU credibility in global trade [8] Geopolitical Implications - The decisions regarding Ukraine and trade will serve as a litmus test for the EU's capability to assert itself as a geopolitical actor in a world increasingly dominated by major powers like the U.S. and China [9] - The EU's response to these challenges will determine whether it can maintain its influence and credibility on the global stage [9]