Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and consensus-building in monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Qualifications and Support - Hassett supports the notion that his close relationship with President Trump should not disqualify him from the Fed Chair position, arguing that collaboration with the president does not undermine his qualifications [2]. - There is growing internal resistance within Trump's advisory team regarding Hassett's candidacy, with concerns that he may prioritize presidential directives over the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment [1][2]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Candidate Probabilities - As doubts about Hassett's candidacy increase, Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated for the Fed Chair has risen to approximately 46%, while Hassett's probability has decreased to around 39% [2]. - Just a week prior, Hassett's nomination probability was as high as 77%, with Warsh at only 10% [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Employment Data - Hassett's comments come amid the release of non-farm employment data for November and part of October, which he describes as showing a robust upward trend in private sector employment [4]. - He expresses a positive outlook on employment growth through 2026, despite acknowledging the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts a significant decline in inflation by the first half of 2026 [1] - Bessent mentioned that President Trump is expected to announce a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair in early January, with one or two interviews possibly taking place this week [1] - Bessent highlighted that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett are both "very, very qualified" candidates for the Fed Chair position [1] Group 2 - Bessent emphasized the need for an open-minded Fed Chair who can challenge the notion that economic growth leads to inflation, stating that inflation occurs when demand exceeds supply [1] - Concerns were raised about Hassett's close relationship with Trump potentially undermining the Fed's independence, but Bessent refuted this claim, asserting that individuals have the autonomy to make decisions [1] - Bessent expressed worries about the Fed's status, describing it as "a non-elected institution that has lost trust" [1] Group 3 - In economic forecasts, Bessent predicts a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for 2025 and suggests that 2026 could be a prosperous year if the government remains operational [2] - He attributes current economic pressures to "Biden inflation" but anticipates relief for Americans by early 2026, with tax refunds expected to reach $100 billion to $150 billion in the first quarter of the following year [2] - Bessent links the decline in rental inflation to border security measures, stating that rental costs have decreased due to the closure of the U.S. border [3] Group 4 - Bessent mentioned that the Supreme Court is expected to rule on tariff issues in early January, confirming that there are multiple revenue sources beyond IEEPA tariffs [3] - He committed to reducing the budget deficit by "hundreds of billions" this year [3]

Group 1 - In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the U.S. increased by 64,000, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in November reached 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.4%, marking the highest level since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November showed a year-over-year increase of 3.5% and a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, both below expectations of 3.6% and 0.3% respectively [1] Group 2 - The October non-farm payrolls saw a month-over-month decline of 105,000, the largest drop since the end of 2020, while the market had anticipated a decrease of 25,000 [1] - The U.S. retail sales in October unexpectedly showed a month-over-month growth of 0%, falling short of the expected 0.1%, with the previous value revised down from 0.2% to 0.1% [1] Group 3 - Following the employment and retail sales data release, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January increased from 22% to 31% [1] - The market still anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected easing of 58 basis points next year [1] Group 4 - Claudia Sam, a former Federal Reserve economist, cautioned investors regarding the November unemployment rate, indicating that government estimates may be "slightly off" [4] - Analyst Anstey noted that the rise in the unemployment rate may not be entirely negative due to an increase in labor participation rate, suggesting a need for further analysis of the data [5] Group 5 - The ADP weekly employment report indicated a potential rebound in hiring activity, with an average of 16,250 new jobs added per week in the four weeks leading up to November 29, 2025 [5] - This data highlights a continued strengthening of the job market in the latter half of November, although it is subject to change with new data [5]

Core Points - President Trump has signed more executive orders in his second term than in his first, with a total of 221 executive orders as of this week [6] - A significant portion of these executive orders, approximately one-third, have faced legal challenges [4] - Trump's approach to governance has increasingly relied on executive orders to bypass Congress, reflecting a trend of expanding executive power in the U.S. [4][9] Group 1: Executive Orders Overview - Trump has issued executive orders on a wide range of topics, including trade (54 orders), government efficiency (30), foreign policy (25), and cultural issues (20) [7] - Nearly 35% of the executive orders related to the economy and trade have been challenged in court, while 45% of those concerning diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and culture have faced legal scrutiny [7] - The rapid issuance of executive orders has raised concerns about the administration's capacity to implement these policies effectively [5] Group 2: Political Context and Implications - Trump's use of executive orders is seen as a response to perceived failures of Congress to legislate effectively, particularly in a polarized political environment [4][9] - The White House spokesperson emphasized that many of Trump's policies are expected to gain formal legislative support from Congress, ensuring their longevity [4] - Historical context shows that U.S. presidents have used executive orders to expand their powers, with Trump’s approach being a continuation of this trend [9][10] Group 3: Public and Media Engagement - Trump has strategically used media events to highlight the signing of executive orders, often inviting journalists to witness the process, which helps shape public perception [8][10] - The ceremonial aspects of signing executive orders have become a platform for Trump to communicate his policy positions and rally support from his base [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for October and November is challenging to interpret, with uncertainty surrounding the labor market's condition due to the impact of a government shutdown and delayed employee departures [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - The non-farm payroll report will include partial data for October and complete data for November, but the October unemployment rate will not be published due to data collection issues during the government shutdown [2]. - Private sector job growth is expected to be around 40,000 to 50,000 for both October and November, significantly lower than the preliminary September figure of 97,000 [3]. - The average monthly job creation in the private sector for the first nine months of 2025 was 72,000, which is considered weak by historical standards [3]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in four years, with predictions for a slight increase to 4.5% in November [4]. - The Labor Statistics Bureau will not release the October unemployment rate, marking the first time since 1948 that a single-month unemployment rate has not been published [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - If the labor market appears to be deteriorating, Wall Street may support further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for additional cuts in 2026 [5]. - Conversely, if private sector job growth exceeds expectations, the market may remain skeptical due to a lack of other positive labor market indicators [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Hiring - The holiday season typically sees an increase in temporary hiring, which could introduce uncertainty into the employment data [6]. - If the number of temporary hires is lower than usual, seasonal adjustments by the Labor Statistics Bureau may make November's employment situation appear worse than it is [7]. Group 5: Government Employment - The exact reduction in government employment for October is unknown, but estimates suggest that the delayed departure plan from the Trump administration could lead to a decrease of 75,000 to 150,000 federal jobs [8]. - This potential reduction may result in a net decrease in October employment figures, with a possible rebound in November, complicating the understanding of the labor market's true state [8].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the U.S. Treasury market for 2026 are increasing, with the bond market reintroducing risk premium pricing ahead of the new year, despite potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened to its widest level in four years, with the 2-10 year spread surpassing the peak from April [2]. - The 10-year term premium, which reflects the extra compensation investors require for holding long-term U.S. Treasuries, has begun to rise again, reaching a three-month high [2]. Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events in the U.S. Treasury market this week include the release of the latest employment report, October inflation data, and a 20-year Treasury auction, with potential impacts from the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Concerns - Investor anxiety is driven by ongoing worries about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's response mechanism, particularly regarding political pressures affecting its independence [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding long-term inflation and the Fed's policy framework is a key factor pushing up risk premiums, contrasting with the post-2008 quantitative easing era [4]. Group 4: Leadership Speculation - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with market perceptions shifting regarding their likelihood of appointment [6][8]. - Market sentiment suggests that Warsh's potential appointment may provide reassurance, while Hassett is viewed as more politically influenced [8]. Group 5: Policy Implications - Despite recent interest rate cuts, the Fed faces pressure from hawkish regional Fed presidents, which could lead to a more contractionary policy stance [9]. - The Fed's recent decision to actively purchase Treasury securities has raised questions about political interference and its implications for market liquidity and inflation risk premiums [10]. Group 6: Inflation Expectations - Current inflation expectations in the bond market are stabilizing around 2.5% [12].

日本央行定于周五将利率上调至30年来的最高水平，并承诺将继续提高借贷成本。尽管面临美国关税带 来的阻力以及鸽派首相就职的影响，日本央行仍将在年内完成两次加息。 此次加息后，日本央行的政策利率按全球标准来看仍处于低位，但对于行长植田和男而言，这将是其推 动货币政策正常化的又一里程碑式举措——日本长期以来一直习惯于非常规宽松政策和接近零的利率水 平。 任何此类举措都将凸显日本央行日益坚定的信念：日本在维持通胀上涨与薪资稳步增长的良性循环方面 正取得进展——这是其设定的加息前提条件。 日本央行周一发布的一项罕见临时调查显示，由于劳动力短缺加剧，其多数分支机构预计企业明年将继 续大幅加薪。 鉴于植田和男在本月早些时候的讲话中已基本承诺12月加息，市场正聚焦于这位行长将在会后新闻发布 会上释放何种关于未来加息路径的信号。 日本央行政策制定者已表明，在将利率推向被视为对经济中性的水平（央行估计该区间为1%至2.5%） 时，他们将谨慎行事。 但分析师表示，植田和男在淡化鹰派信号方面面临着压力，以避免引发新一轮日元贬值——日元贬值可 能推高进口成本和整体通胀水平。 虽然日元走弱有助于提升出口商利润，但可能会促使零售商转嫁成本 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a combined non-farm payroll report for October and November, but key details, including the October unemployment rate, will be missing due to the government shutdown, marking the first time since 1948 that such data will not be published [1][2] Non-Farm Payroll Report - The October employment report has been canceled, but the non-farm employment numbers and other details will be included in the November report [1] - The non-farm payroll report is based on two surveys, which typically occur during the week that includes the 12th of the month [1] - Employers continued to submit responses electronically during the government shutdown, allowing the BLS to calculate October's non-farm employment numbers [2] - Economists predict that the non-farm employment numbers for November will increase by 50,000 jobs, following an increase of 119,000 jobs in September [2] Unemployment Rate - Due to the lack of a household survey in October, there will be no unemployment rate report for that month, which is unprecedented since the data series began [2] - The unemployment rate for November is projected to be 4.4%, unchanged from September [3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report - The BLS will not release the overall CPI or core CPI for October due to the inability to collect necessary data during the shutdown [5] - The agency indicated that the number of indices that can be published for October will be very limited, and specific guidance for data users regarding the missing data will not be provided [5] - Goldman Sachs warned that the volatility of the CPI series may increase, as price collection in the latter half of November could lead to lower price readings due to holiday sales [5]

Core Viewpoint - Societe Generale predicts that gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the dollar until 2026, maintaining its maximum allocation and advising investors to buy on dips [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Societe Generale has reduced its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and halved its corporate bond holdings to 5%, while maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in multi-asset portfolios [1] - The bank's analysts suggest that retail investors are diversifying their assets by entering the gold market through bullion, coins, and ETFs, recommending buying on dips due to central banks continuing to diversify away from dollar assets [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts expect gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by anticipated aggressive and dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] - The bank forecasts that inflation pressures will ease next year, but acknowledges increasing risks in the U.S. labor market [1] - Societe Generale's economists predict a further 50 basis points cut in the federal funds rate by April next year, aligning with current market expectations, which would support a gradual easing of financial conditions [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The current real federal funds rate remains relatively restrictive, despite a recent drop from 5.5% to 4%, indicating that inflation-adjusted monetary conditions are still tight [1] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve, combined with the political necessity to control food prices ahead of midterm elections, is expected to serve as a strong anchor for policy rates until 2026 [1] - The correlation between the U.S. stock market and bond market remains higher than historical norms, enhancing gold's value as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for November is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 4.4% [1][5] - The report will also include data from October, as the Labor Statistics Bureau could not collect unemployment rate data for that month due to the government shutdown [3][5] - Economists predict that the employment data will be volatile, with estimates for November ranging from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 jobs [3][4] Group 2 - The government shutdown has created uncertainty around the data, with over 700,000 federal workers being furloughed during the shutdown [4][5] - The report will provide insights into the labor market's current state and will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions for the upcoming year [1][4] - Key details from the establishment and household surveys will be crucial for understanding the performance of various sectors in the economy [6] Group 3 - The retail sales data for October is also set to be released, with a modest growth of 0.1% expected, indicating stable consumer demand [6][7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November will be released later, but it will lack month-over-month data due to the absence of October's report, leading investors to focus on year-over-year indicators for inflation trends [7]