Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. employment report is expected to reinforce market views on Federal Reserve policy and influence short-term interest rate trends [1] - Recent weaker-than-expected economic data has strengthened market bets on a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield retreating from the 5% mark [1] - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on September 16-17 [2] Group 2 - Derivative contracts betting on Federal Reserve policy indicate nearly a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month, with expectations of five total cuts by the end of next year [2] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently around 3.6%, close to its lowest level since May [2] - Market participants are preparing for potential volatility in response to the employment report, with options pricing indicating a balance point of 10 basis points for fluctuations [3] Group 3 - If the employment report is stronger than expected, the U.S. dollar may be boosted, as market sentiment is currently leaning bearish on the dollar [4] - Hedge funds and other speculative investors held short positions against the dollar amounting to approximately $5.6 billion in the week ending August 26 [4] - A strong employment report could indicate a reduction in the Federal Reserve's easing measures for the remainder of the year, potentially supporting the dollar [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 3 months [1] - DeepSeek aims to release a new AI agent by the end of the year, designed to perform multi-step operations with minimal user instructions and learn from previous behaviors [1] - NVIDIA plans to launch a new chip named B30A in the Chinese market, which is expected to be six times more powerful than its predecessor H20 and priced at approximately $20,000 [1] Group 2 - The State Council aims to cultivate a number of world-class sports enterprises and events by 2030, with the sports industry expected to exceed 7 trillion yuan in total scale [2] Group 3 - XianDao Intelligent has successfully established a complete production line for all-solid-state batteries, achieving multiple technological breakthroughs and receiving repeat orders from leading domestic and international companies [3] - Zhongwei Company has launched six new semiconductor equipment products, which are expected to positively impact the company's market expansion and performance growth [3] - Shenghong Technology is advancing the research and certification of 10-layer 30-layer HDI technology [4] Group 4 - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical has received approval for clinical trials of its HRS-4729 injection, a triple receptor agonist aimed at improving metabolic regulation and weight loss [7] - Wuhan Holdings plans to acquire 100% equity of Wuhan Municipal Institute for 1.6 billion yuan, which will enhance its business scope and revenue [9] - Beijing Lier has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with SenseTime and Xiwang Technology to explore AI computing power collaboration [10] Group 5 - Hangzhou High-tech has experienced a change in control, with several board members resigning due to a share transfer agreement [11] - Guoxin Technology has successfully tested a new high-performance chip for automotive electronics, which aims to address the MCU chip shortage in the domestic automotive industry [12] - Tianhua New Energy has sent samples of its solid-state electrolyte materials to leading companies, receiving positive feedback [13] Group 6 - Shiyun Circuit has entered mass production supply for its AI glasses product for a major overseas client, and has achieved mass production for various server and communication PCBs [14] - Kewang Technology primarily supplies precision cable connection components to Yushu Technology, with a low sales proportion [15] - Junsheng Electronics collaborates with leading clients to provide key components and solutions for robotics and energy management [16] Group 7 - Bowei Alloy is a key supplier of VC thermal materials for an upcoming AI smartphone model [17] - Baoxin Technology has subscribed to an 18 million yuan capital increase in Suzhou Jicui Intelligent Manufacturing Robot Co., Ltd., acquiring an 81.82% stake [18]

Core Viewpoint - The rising share of gold in central bank reserves is becoming unstoppable, driven by concerns over inflation, deteriorating U.S. fiscal health, debates over Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical turmoil [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a significant divergence in the performance of gold and U.S. Treasury bonds this year, with gold prices reaching historical highs while long-term Treasury yields have surged to multi-year peaks [1] - The demand for gold has accelerated, leading to a substantial increase in central bank holdings, which now total 36,000 tons globally [8] Group 2: Reserve Composition - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, now accounting for a higher share in central bank reserves than U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [6][7] - The current market value of gold held by central banks is approximately $4.5 trillion, significantly exceeding the $3.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings [8] Group 3: Historical Context - The last time gold's share in global reserves exceeded that of U.S. Treasury bonds was in 1996, a period characterized by low inflation and stable economic growth [9] - The current macroeconomic environment is markedly different, favoring gold as a strategic reserve asset amid rising inflation and geopolitical shifts [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The shift in reserve management towards gold is seen as a significant milestone, indicating a deeper, long-term structural change in global reserve composition [10] - While the possibility of gold reclaiming its historical peak share of 75% in central bank reserves is low, the trend of increasing gold holdings is likely to continue in the near term due to persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks [11]

Group 1 - The United States is preparing to initiate the largest free trade agreement renegotiation, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with public consultations expected to begin within a month [1] - The USMCA includes a mandatory six-year review clause, and after the public consultation, the US government must hold at least one public hearing and submit a report to Congress by January 2026 [1][2] - The USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and was touted as a key trade achievement during Trump's first term [1] Group 2 - Trump's administration previously imposed high tariffs on Canada and Mexico, citing drug smuggling issues, which disrupted the complex North American supply chains [2] - Despite exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods, significant trade activities between the US and its neighbors remain exposed to tariff risks [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated that progress is being made in discussions with Trump regarding trade issues, although short-term agreements on tariff reductions are not expected [3] Group 3 - The US Trade Representative's office has not commented on the situation, while discussions between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum focused on cross-border security cooperation [3] - There is a belief that broader trade agreements will require consensus on security issues, which are critical to the US's anti-drug efforts [3] - Trump extended existing tariffs on Mexican goods for an additional 90 days, citing the complexity of reaching agreements with Mexico [4] Group 4 - The US Trade Representative's office highlighted other barriers in US-Mexico trade, including Mexico's energy policies favoring state-owned enterprises and insufficient copyright protections [5] - Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard acknowledged that the upcoming months will not be easy for the USMCA review, emphasizing the need for mutual cooperation to maintain competitiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is underway, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expected to interview 11 candidates nominated by the Trump administration, which may reflect an unusual level of transparency and potential political pressure on the Fed [2][3][5]. Candidate Details - Among the 11 candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, three are considered strong contenders: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Trump economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Other candidates include Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Larry Lindsey, James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Rick Rieder, and David Zervos [4]. Importance of the Federal Reserve Chair Selection - The selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is crucial as the Fed is a key economic policy-making institution in the U.S., influencing interest rates and, consequently, the economic well-being of individuals and businesses [7]. The confirmation process may face heightened partisan conflict due to current political polarization [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is currently no evidence that higher tariffs on imported goods are causing an overall surge in inflation trends, according to New York Fed President Williams [2] - Williams predicts that interest rate cuts will become appropriate over time, although he did not specify the timing or pace of these cuts [2][3] - The labor market has shown signs of cooling due to high interest rates, with significant slowdowns in job growth since May [2][3] Group 2 - Williams expects the unemployment rate to gradually rise to around 4.5% next year due to the combined impact of trade and immigration policies [3] - Short-term inflation rates may spike above 3%, but are projected to decline to 2.5% by 2026 and further to 2% by 2027, aligning with the Fed's inflation target [3] - The path of interest rates post-September meeting remains unclear, with some officials advocating for a series of rate cuts in the next three to six months [4]

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若获确认，米兰表示，他将"透明且诚实"地履行国会赋予美联储的使命：追求价格稳定、最大化就业以 及保持适度的长期利率。 参议院银行委员会周四将为米兰出任美联储理事的提名举行确认听证会，美联储的独立性预计将成为核 心议题。 米兰被提名接替前美联储理事库格勒的空缺，这本是美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的机会。然而，特朗普 近期因涉嫌不当解雇美联储理事库克而引发争议，使得这场听证会更加激烈，市场和议员们都将密切关 注米兰的表态以及议员的反应。 米兰将在听证会上承诺维护央行的独立性。 根据周三参议院银行委员会发布的预备证词，米兰将对议 员表示："在我看来，央行的首要任务是防止经济萧条和高通胀，货币政策的独立性是其成功的关键。" 他补充道："联邦公开市场委员会是一个肩负重大使命的独立团体，我将尽全力维护其独立性，为美国 人民服务。" 米兰强调，他的观点和决策将基于对宏观经济的分析以及对经济"长期稳健发展"的考量。他还指出，有 效的货币政策对确保经济正常运转和促进繁荣至关重要。 TD Cowen分析师Jaret Seiberg表示，如果辩论仅聚焦于米兰对白宫影响货币政策的看法，其提名确认可 能"悬而未决"。 民主党人预计将就米兰 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is facing challenges, as evidenced by the lower-than-expected private sector job growth in August, which added only 54,000 jobs compared to the anticipated 65,000 [1][5] - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that the strong job growth seen earlier in the year has been significantly impacted by uncertainties, including rising consumer concerns, labor shortages, and disruptions related to artificial intelligence [4] - Employment in sectors related to trade, transportation, and utilities showed particular weakness, with a net loss of 17,000 jobs in August, while education and healthcare services also experienced a decline of 12,000 jobs [4] Group 2 - The report highlighted that wage growth remained stable in August, with pay for stayers increasing by 4.4% year-over-year and pay for job switchers rising by 7.1% [5] - The ADP report adds to the concerns regarding the labor market, especially following earlier data indicating that job openings and labor turnover (JOLTS) in July reached one of the lowest levels since 2020 [5] - Attention is now shifting to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [5]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is damaged, gold prices could approach $5,000 per ounce, with a baseline forecast of $4,000 by mid-2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts [1] - Citigroup forecasts silver prices to rise to $43 per ounce in the next few months due to tightening supply and growing investment demand [2] Group 2 - HSBC raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of the year to 6,500 points, citing strong corporate earnings and expectations of Fed rate cuts [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude oil prices to fall to just above $50 per barrel next year due to a global oil surplus [3] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates a bullish outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, suggesting potential upward movement towards the 150 level [3] Group 3 - Citic Securities predicts that gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year, influenced by various economic factors [8] - Citic Securities also notes that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [8] - Citic Securities suggests that the 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. have room to decline, but the extent may be limited [9]