随着一系列关键经济数据即将发布，美国国债市场关于美联储未来降息幅度的激烈辩论正趋于白热化。 由于美国政府停摆导致了数据真空，本周发布的月度就业和通胀数据将极大地填补这一空白，随后，明 年1月初还将有更多关键就业数据出炉。在迈向2026年之际，这些报告将有助于回答一个核心问题：在 连续三次降息之后，美联储的宽松政策是接近尾声，还是必须采取更激进的行动。 对于债券交易员来说，赌注很大。尽管通胀依然顽固地处于高位，他们仍押注美联储明年将降息两次以 支持就业市场和经济增长前景。这比美联储暗示的还要多一次。如果市场预期正确，这可能为美债带来 又一波强劲行情，使其有望创下自2020年以来的最佳年度表现。 DWS Americas固定收益主管George Catrambone表示："周二的就业数据可能是最重要的数据，劳动力市 场的走向决定了利率的去向。" 鉴于本周数据发布前，一系列劳动力指标表现疲软，Catrambone属于那些预计美联储不得不进行更大幅 度降息的人士之一。上周当美债收益率飙升至数月高点时，他买入了美债。 本周伊始，对政策敏感的两年期美债收益率约为3.5%，10年期美债收益率约为4.2%。上周，美联储将 利 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is still debating internally about interest rate policies, with some members suggesting to wait for more data before making decisions [3][10] - Trump is inclined to choose either former Fed governor Warsh or NEC director Hassett to succeed the Fed chair [10] - Ukraine's President Zelensky stated that the US and Europe do not support Ukraine's NATO membership, leading to compromises for security guarantees [10][11] Group 2 - SpaceX has approved internal stock trading, with a valuation reaching approximately $800 billion [10] - In the first eleven months, China's social financing scale increased by 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding the total for the previous year by 3.99 trillion yuan [15] - The State Council's Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and effective expectation management [15] Group 3 - The US stock market opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, S&P 500 down 1.07%, and Nasdaq down 1.69% [5][7] - European major stock indices all closed lower, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.45% and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.56% [5][7] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 1.75%, closing at 25,976.79 points, with significant trading volume of 242.657 billion HKD [5][7] Group 4 - A-shares experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.41% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84% [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - The controlled nuclear fusion sector led the gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [6]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged for the fourth consecutive day, driven by ETF inflows, momentum trading strategies, and tight physical market conditions, positioning silver for its best year since 1979 [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver prices reached a historical high above $64, with a weekly increase of approximately 10%, influenced by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [2]. - The recent price surge occurred after a significant short squeeze in the London silver market, where ETF inflows and exports to India depleted already low inventories [4]. - The gold-silver ratio fell to its lowest level since 2021, approximately 1:67, indicating a relative cheapness of silver [4]. Group 2: Speculative Activity and Options Market - There is a notable increase in bullish options buying, with total open interest in call options for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reaching its highest level since 2020 [5]. - The cost of purchasing call options has surged to multi-year highs compared to put options, indicating strong speculative interest [5]. - A significant number of call options with a strike price of $57 are set to expire, potentially prompting traders to buy stocks to rebalance their positions [5]. Group 3: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - The Silver Institute reported an expected surge in industrial applications, particularly in solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which may drive future demand [6]. - The sharp rise in silver prices could potentially weaken industrial demand, as silver now constitutes about one-quarter of the cost structure in photovoltaics [6]. - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by 120%, outpacing gold's 65% rise, with ETFs adding 35 million ounces of silver holdings in the past month [7].

Group 1 - Societe Generale has closed its short position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, realizing profits from a trade initiated at a yield of 4.09% and closed at 4.15% [1] - Fitch Ratings expects the U.S. leveraged loan default rate to decline by 2026, predicting it will range between 4.5% and 5.0%, while high-yield bond defaults are expected to be between 2.5% and 3.0% [1] - Scotiabank believes the U.S. dollar bear market has just begun, forecasting a continued weakening of the dollar until 2026 and 2027 due to divergent central bank policies [1] Group 2 - Nomura forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will weaken in 2026, with target prices of 155.00 in Q1, 150.00 in Q2, 145.00 in Q3, and 140.00 in Q4, influenced by domestic political pressure and narrowing interest rate differentials [2] - Jefferies sees strong appeal in the Japanese stock market before 2026, expecting a 13% increase in the Topix index driven by corporate reforms and political leadership [3] - ING suggests that while the euro is nearing a two-month high against the dollar, betting on European Central Bank rate hikes may be premature, with potential for the EUR/USD to rise to 1.18 by year-end [3] Group 3 - CICC indicates that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes quality and efficiency in China's economic policies, with a focus on addressing consumer, investment, and real estate concerns [5] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates continued relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in 2026, aiming to stabilize the real estate market through various policy measures [5] - CITIC Securities expects new measures to address operational debt risks of financing platforms, indicating a broader approach to managing local government debt [6]

Group 1 - Major tech companies are investing heavily in India, attracted by its data center resources, talent pool, and digital user base, with Microsoft and Amazon committing over $50 billion in less than 24 hours [1] - Microsoft announced a $17.5 billion investment over four years to expand its infrastructure and integrate AI into national platforms, while Amazon plans to invest an additional $35 billion on top of its previous $40 billion investment [2] - India is ranked among the top four countries globally for AI vitality, alongside the US, China, and the UK, with GitHub reporting that Indian developers account for 24% of global project contributions [1][2] Group 2 - India has significant advantages in data center development, including lower electricity costs and growing renewable energy capacity, making it an attractive market for global cloud service providers [3] - The local demand for data centers is driven by the rise of e-commerce and potential new regulations for social media data storage, positioning India as a key market for AI spending in the Asia-Pacific region [3] - Global companies are expanding their data center capacities beyond traditional hubs like Mumbai and Chennai to cities closer to service bases, such as Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Pune [4]

"在数据'静默'之前，有一些令人担忧的读数，"古尔斯比说。"幸运的是，我们在接下来的几个月里将会 发现关于这些风险的重要信息，希望这能让我们有信心重返2%的通胀路径。" 周五发表讲话的还有费城联储主席保尔森，其立场较为鸽派，称"相对于通胀上行风险，她仍然更担心 劳动力市场的疲软"。"这部分是因为我认为，随着明年的推进，通胀有相当大的机会回落，"她在特拉 华州的一次活动上表示。"劳动力市场尚可，但下行风险正在升高。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，他之所以在本周投下反对票，是因为他希望等待更多经济数据，以确定 关税对通胀的影响是否只是暂时的。 古尔斯比在周五的一份声明中表示，"鉴于通胀率已经连续四年半高于我们的目标，而且几个月来在通 胀问题上的进展一直停滞不前，加上我们最近在辖区内接触的几乎所有商界人士和消费者都将物价列为 主要担忧，我觉得更审慎的做法是等待更多信息。" 这位芝加哥联储主席本周投下的反对票是他自2023年加入美联储以来的首次异议，这使他与堪萨斯城联 储主席施密德站在了同一战线，后者曾在10月份的前一次降息中投了反对票，并对本周的决定再次提出 异议。 施密德也在周五的另一份声明中也概述了他连续第二次 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve, but later declined as markets deemed Powell's stance insufficiently hawkish [1] - Spot gold prices rose for four consecutive trading days, reaching a one-month high of over $4,330 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and increased risk aversion [1] - Silver prices doubled since January, with the World Silver Association predicting a supply deficit of approximately 117 million ounces in 2025, leading analysts to forecast silver prices could exceed $100 next year [1] - Non-USD currencies strengthened against the dollar, with expectations that several central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles and may soon raise rates [1] - International oil prices showed a weak trend, influenced by India's oil purchases from Russia, Iraq's production recovery, and concerns over US actions against Venezuelan oil shipments [1] US Stock Market - The US stock market showed overall strength but with significant internal structural divergence, particularly influenced by the performance of bank stocks and cyclical sectors [2] Investment Bank Insights - Predictions from various investment banks suggest that the recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be the last under Powell's leadership, with future easing dependent on labor market conditions [5] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank forecast a decline in the dollar index by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 due to ongoing rate cuts and policy divergence among central banks [5] Major Events - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% and initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase plan, with a significant focus on maintaining adequate reserve supplies [6] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point increase, marking the highest borrowing cost since 1995 [9] - Other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, are also anticipated to raise rates in the coming years, contrasting with the Fed's potential continued easing [11] Geopolitical Developments - The US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker, marking a significant escalation in its sanctions against Venezuela, which the Venezuelan government condemned as "piracy" [14][15] - Ongoing negotiations regarding a peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict have revealed significant disagreements, particularly concerning territorial and security arrangements [12][13] Corporate Developments - SpaceX plans to go public in 2026, with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, potentially raising around $40 billion [17][18] - Meta Platforms is shifting its strategy from open-source to closed-source AI models, with significant investments planned for AI development [21] - A bidding war has erupted between Netflix and Paramount over Warner Bros. Discovery, with Paramount making a cash offer significantly higher than Netflix's proposal [22][23] - OpenAI launched its latest AI model, GPT-5.2, and plans to end its "red code" alert in January, indicating a surge in enterprise AI applications [24]

知情人士补充称，这一迅速的时间表将颠覆该集团接纳新成员的的方法，并迫使布鲁塞尔重新思考整个 流程。他们提到了目前的欧盟资金、投票权以及诸如共同农业政策等福利的分阶段准入制度，基辅甚至 尚未正式完成欧盟那严苛的36个入盟阶段中的任何一个。 支持乌克兰加入欧盟的官员表示，将其纳入和平协议的一部分将使基辅的成员国身份成为既成事实，因 为布鲁塞尔会觉得不能通过反对这一快速时间表来破坏和平进程。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 根据旨在结束俄乌冲突的美国斡旋谈判中正在讨论的一项快速通道提案，乌克兰将被指定在2027年加入 欧盟，此举将重写该集团的入盟程序。 据了解文件内容的人士向《金融时报》透露，在美国和乌克兰官员于布鲁塞尔支持下正在谈判的最新乌 克兰和平提案草案中，明确规定了2027年1月1日为乌克兰加入欧盟的日期。 他表示，美国官员将参加周末由德国主办的一次会议，届时欧洲和乌克兰官员将解决各方之间传递的和 平提案中一些比较棘手的问题。 特朗普曾在竞选期间发誓要给乌克兰带来和平并在24小时内结束俄乌冲突。在周四，即他第二任期快满 一年时表示，该协议变得"有点复杂，因为你要以某种方式分割土地， ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a historic high of over $64 per ounce, attracting significant attention from investors, with analysts suggesting that this "poor man's gold" still has substantial upside potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Michele Schneider, Chief Market Strategist at MarketGauge, has re-entered the silver market with an entry price of approximately $48 per ounce after previously liquidating her positions [1]. - The recent surge in silver prices has prompted Schneider to raise her stop-loss levels, indicating a bullish sentiment towards the metal [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Schneider emphasizes that the current silver price has not yet reached its appropriate high, citing a significant supply gap as a major concern, with demand expected to continue growing while supply remains extremely limited [2]. - The electrification of the global economy is driving silver's importance as a key industrial metal, with technology companies projected to invest $700 billion in expanding AI infrastructure, which may be hindered by insufficient silver supply [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Schneider views silver as a value investment within the precious metals market, noting that despite prices exceeding $64 per ounce, it remains undervalued compared to gold [2]. - Historical gold-silver ratios suggest that silver has considerable room for price appreciation, with Schneider predicting that the gold-silver ratio could drop to around 40, indicating a potential significant rise in silver prices [2]. Group 4: Economic Influences - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, is expected to support continued strong retail investment demand for silver [3]. - Schneider anticipates a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which, combined with rising inflation and declining real yields, could exert pressure on the dollar and bolster hard assets like silver and gold [3].

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has filed a lawsuit against Euroclear for freezing Russian sovereign assets, claiming that the freezing of €210 billion in assets, of which €185 billion is held by Euroclear, is due to "illegal actions" that prevent access to its funds and securities [1] - The lawsuit represents Russia's first counteraction against the EU's plan to indefinitely freeze these assets to fund a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, with most of the frozen assets located in Belgium [1][2] - The European Commission believes that no court outside the EU has jurisdiction over this case, while the Central Bank of Russia has stated it will "unconditionally challenge" any attempts to freeze its assets through international courts [1] Group 2 - In 2022, following the military actions ordered by President Putin, Western allies froze $300 billion of Russian reserve assets, which need to be re-frozen every six months with unanimous consent from all EU member states [2] - The EU has proposed using emergency powers to indefinitely freeze €210 billion in assets to support Ukraine, with discussions among EU leaders planned for the €90 billion loan [2] - The U.S. has expressed opposition to the EU's actions, as the Trump administration is negotiating a peace plan that aims to inject most of the assets into U.S.-led investment funds [3]