一位经验丰富的美国白银矿业高管表示，白银这轮破纪录上涨的幕后推手并非对冲基金，而是强劲的实 物需求，这一需求短期内根本无法满足。 Hecla Mining前首席执行官、现为行业顾问的菲尔·贝克（Phil Baker）表示，如今贵金属专业人士承受 的压力之大，是他前所未见的。 他提到："在伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的会议上，市场参与者对白银问题的担忧和压力，真的让我 感到震惊，这种压力是我以前从未见过的。"他进一步指出："对我来说，很明显，这些人不会再允许他 们的库存跌到以前那么低的水平了。"白银需求的潜在驱动力 当投资者将焦点放在西方期货市场上时，贝克认为，印度才是白银故事的核心。 他直言："在我看来，真正推动白银价格上涨的，是印度正在发生的一切。"他强调："它就是真正的驱 动力，名副其实的。" 他提到，印度作为全球第五大经济体，其白银进口量正在飙升。他透露，印度10月进口了大约6000万盎 司白银，而一年前约为1500万盎司。贝克表示："需求依然是'永无止境'的。" 根据印度贸易和政府数据显示，印度在2023年至2024年的白银进口量确实激增，使其成为全球最大的白 银消费国之一。 白银从伦敦流出的目的地是 ...

哈祖斯预计，美联储将在1月暂停降息周期，随后在3月和6月实施降息，从而将联邦基金利率推低 至3%-3.25%的最终水平（目前为3.75%-4%）。 通胀将如何影响美联储政策？ SHMET 网讯：尽管美联储很可能在12月降息，但2026年的货币政策前景则更难预测。高盛研究团 队的基本"工作假设"是，随着经济增长重新加速且通胀降温，政策制定者将在明年上半年放缓宽松步 伐。 高盛研究团队首席经济学家扬·哈祖斯（Jan Hatzius）在团队最新的《全球展望》报告中写道，大幅 延迟发布的9月就业报告显示出劳动力市场降温的迹象，这可能已为联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在 12月会议上降息25个基点一锤定音。 他补充道，考虑到下一份就业报告定于12月16日发布，而下一份消费者价格通胀数据将于12月18日 公布，"日程表上几乎没有什么能阻碍12月10日的降息决定。" 2026年预计会有多少次美联储降息？ 明年的降息前景则不那么明朗。高盛研究团队预测，由于关税影响减弱，加之减税措施和更为宽松 的金融环境，美国经济增长将在2026年加速至2%-2.5%。 高盛的经济学家预计，这些因素将促进就业创造，并将失业率稳定在仅略高于今年 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US ADP employment numbers decreased by 32,000 in November, marking the lowest level since March 2023, while the market had expected an increase of 10,000 [11] - The US Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated that certain sectors of the economy are showing signs of weakness, suggesting a need for interest rate cuts [11] - The dollar index fell by 0.45% to 98.88, following the unexpected drop in employment data, which heightened expectations for a rate cut next week [2][6] Group 2: Market Performance - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil increasing by 0.84% to $59.12 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 0.64% to $62.78 per barrel, as investors believe that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to lead to the lifting of oil-related sanctions [3] - The US stock market saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise by 0.86%, the S&P 500 by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq by 0.17%, while Nvidia shares fell by 1% and Tesla shares rose by 4% [3] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 1.28% to 25,760.73, with the technology index dropping by 1.58% [4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026 due to strong demand from central banks and investors [11] - The company Moer Thread is set to be listed on the STAR Market on December 5 [11] - The new stock LeMo Technology saw a first-day increase of 36.25% upon its listing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has urged Italy to reconsider a proposal that declares its gold reserves as property of the people, which critics argue could pave the way for the government to sell gold [1][2] Group 1: ECB's Position - The ECB's governing council requested the Italian government to reassess the proposal to maintain the independence of the Italian central bank under the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) [1] - The ECB expressed uncertainty regarding the specific purpose of the proposed clause, highlighting that gold is already considered national property [1][2] Group 2: Economic Context - Italy's economy is projected to grow only 0.5% this year, with debt significantly exceeding 130% of economic output, complicating fiscal support for citizens and growth initiatives [3] - The Italian government has included tax cuts for the middle class in its latest budget proposal, which is expected to be approved by year-end, and has successfully reduced the deficit to within the EU's 3% limit [3] Group 3: Gold Reserves and Political Implications - Approximately half of Italy's gold reserves are stored in the central bank's vaults in Rome, with the remainder located in the US, UK, and Switzerland [4] - Former Italian central bank governor Salvatore Rossi warned that approving the amendment could lead to significant conflict with European institutions, questioning the political wisdom of such a move [2]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is shifting focus towards robotics technology, with plans for an executive order potentially being announced next year [1] - The Department of Commerce is committed to the development of robotics and advanced manufacturing as a core strategy to bring critical production back to the U.S. [1] - Interest from Congress is growing, with proposals for a national robotics committee being discussed, indicating that robotics technology is becoming a major focus area [1] Group 2 - Significant investment is required to catch up in the robotics sector, with funding expected to reach $2.3 billion by 2025, doubling from the previous year [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates that the global humanoid robotics market could reach $38 billion by 2035, highlighting the industry's growth potential [2] - Companies are seeking tax incentives and federal funding to integrate advanced automation and enhance supply chains [2] Group 3 - A paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that automation may lead to job losses and reduced income for workers in replaceable roles [3] - There is a contrasting vision where robotics and manufacturing can mutually benefit each other, promoting job creation through the development and maintenance of robots [3] - The Association for Advancing Automation suggests that robotics can enhance worker productivity, potentially expanding job opportunities rather than replacing them [3]

Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that if the next Federal Reserve Chair fails to effectively address inflation risks, the US dollar may face downward pressure, particularly if they respond to President Trump's interest rate cut proposals [1] - The expectation of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could pressure the dollar even before any actual policy changes occur [1] Group 2: European Banking Sector - Morgan Stanley analysts express optimism for European bank stocks, predicting continued growth in a "perfect environment" characterized by economic improvement, stable interest rates, and low unemployment [2] - The Stoxx 600 Bank Index has seen a cumulative increase of 55% this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index's 13% rise, with several banks expected to double their stock prices by 2025 [2] Group 3: Indian Stock Market - Nomura Securities forecasts a 12% increase in India's Nifty 50 index by the end of 2026, driven by supportive policies and recovering economic momentum [3] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - BNP Paribas predicts a resilient global economy in 2026, supported by monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and strong household balance sheets [4] - The bank anticipates US economic growth of 1.9% and Eurozone growth of 1.5% in 2026 [4] Group 5: UK Bond Market - BNP Paribas expects UK government bond yields to remain range-bound in the first half of 2026 before declining in the second half, with a forecast of 4.50% by Q2 and 4.30% by year-end [5] Group 6: Eurozone Inflation - ING economists note that a slight increase in Eurozone inflation does not provide the European Central Bank with a reason to cut rates in December, as inflation remains high and balanced by various factors [6] Group 7: Japanese Bond Market - Bank of America forecasts that Japan's 10-year government bond yield will rise to 2% by the end of 2026 due to wage growth and fiscal expansion [7] Group 8: Gold Market - China International Capital Corporation maintains a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the bull market is not over despite recent price increases [8] Group 9: Liquidity in December - China International Capital Corporation indicates that there is likely no liquidity gap in December, with limited risks for the bond market [9] Group 10: Energy Storage Sector - CITIC Securities highlights a significant increase in the certainty of energy storage expansion, driven by strong investment and supportive policies [10] Group 11: Chinese Equity Market - China Postal Securities predicts a "long cycle, structural bull market" for the Chinese equity market in 2026, supported by improving corporate earnings [11]

Group 1 - The private sector in the U.S. unexpectedly lost 32,000 jobs in November, indicating a further slowdown in the labor market [1] - Small businesses were particularly hard hit, with companies having fewer than 50 employees losing 120,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [4] - In contrast, large companies (those with 50 or more employees) added 90,000 jobs, with the education and healthcare sectors leading the way with an increase of 33,000 jobs [4] Group 2 - Wage growth has slowed, with salaries for retained employees rising 4.4% year-over-year, down 0.1 percentage points from October [5] - The ADP report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 9-10, where there is a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut [5] - Recent weeks have seen mixed opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding the necessity of further rate cuts to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 展望2026年，一个关键问题是政治因素究竟会在多大程度上渗透到美联储的运作中。今年以来，美国总 统特朗普及其内阁一直在游说美联储降息并调整货币政策，这在历史上并非没有先例。 然而，这届特朗普政府也采取了更为极端的措施：威胁解雇美联储主席鲍威尔并对其进行人身攻击，试 图罢免联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的其他成员，甚至在一场关于翻新成本的争执中亲自造访美联储 总部。 米兰此前是特朗普的经济顾问委员会主席，今年早些时候在阿德里安娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）辞职 后接替她进入FOMC。他被普遍视为临时任命，其任期预计在下个月结束。 虽然鲍威尔的美联储主席职位将在2026年5月空缺，但他作为美联储理事的任期要到2028年1月才结束 ——这意味着他可能打破传统，在美联储再留任几年，这很可能会让白宫感到懊恼。 巴韦补充说："关于这一点，鲍威尔一直非常含糊其辞。在过去75年里，几乎没有主席留任理事的历史 先例，但鲍威尔也没有说会离开。" 面对来自白宫的一连串批评，鲍威尔一直是美联储独立性的坚定捍卫者。他明确表示，如果白宫要求他 离职，他不会照做，并补充 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reportedly turned around its unprecedented losses that lasted for three years, closely linked to the monetary policies implemented post-COVID-19 [2] - Since early November, the Federal Reserve has returned to profitability, allowing it to slowly begin to fill its deferred assets, which have decreased from $243.8 billion to $243.2 billion by November 26 [2] - Analysts expect that the process of replenishing deferred assets and returning profits to the Treasury will take years to complete [2] Group 2 - During the pandemic, the Federal Reserve significantly increased its asset holdings by purchasing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, peaking at $9 trillion in the summer of 2022 [3] - Rising inflation pressures led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates significantly starting in early 2022, creating a mismatch between its income and the payments it needed to make to banks [3] - The cessation of losses for the Federal Reserve is attributed to the reduction in interest on reserve balances (IORB) and not from special earnings like seigniorage [3]

"目前工作正在专家层面进行，"佩斯科夫说。"应该在专家层面取得某些成果，然后这些成果将成为最 高级别接触的基础。" 11月曾有一份泄露的28项美国和平提议草案浮出水面，这令乌克兰和欧洲官员感到震惊，他们称这些提 议是向莫斯科低头。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 克里姆林宫周三表示，俄罗斯总统普京接受了美国旨在结束俄乌冲突的部分提议，但拒绝了其他提议， 不过俄罗斯准备与美国谈判代表进行多次会晤，直至达成协议。 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫是在莫斯科的会谈结束后发表上述讲话的。此次会谈在普京与美国总统特朗 普的特使威特科夫及女婿库什纳之间进行，一直持续到当地时间周三凌晨。克里姆林宫的一位助手随后 表示，"尚未找到妥协方案"。 当被问及说普京拒绝了美国的提议是否准确时，佩斯科夫表示并不准确。 "昨天首次进行了直接的意见交换，"佩斯科夫说。"有些内容被接受了，有些内容被标记为不可接受。 这是寻找妥协方案的正常工作流程。" 佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯感谢特朗普所做的努力，但克里姆林宫不会对与美国的讨论进行实时评论，因为 公开宣传不太可能起到建设性作用。 欧洲大国随后提出了反提案，在日内瓦的会谈中，美国 ...