Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined lead surplus of 22,000 tons in July 2025, with production at 1,127,500 tons and consumption at 1,105,400 tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, there was a global refined lead shortage of 156,900 tons, with production totaling 7,782,800 tons and consumption at 7,939,700 tons [1] - In July 2025, global lead mine production reached 399,100 tons, while the total for January to July 2025 was 2,656,400 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reports that China's lead production in August 2025 reached 667,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% despite some production cuts due to maintenance and raw material shortages [1] Group 1: Electrolytic Lead Production - In August, domestic electrolytic lead production increased as medium and large electrolytic lead smelting enterprises in Central, North, and East China resumed operations after maintenance [1] - Although some smelting companies faced production cuts due to maintenance and insufficient ore supply, the overall electrolytic lead output saw a rise [1] Group 2: Recycled Lead Production - Recycled lead production also increased due to the resumption of operations at several smelting plants and the release of new capacity, despite some companies facing raw material shortages and significant losses leading to production halts [1] - The report indicates that while some large smelting plants in East and North China plan to reduce or halt production, the overall recycled lead output remains positively impacted by new capacity coming online [1] Group 3: Outlook for September - Looking ahead to September, SMM notes an increase in maintenance among electrolytic lead smelting enterprises, which may offset some production declines due to resumed operations in Northeast and North China [1] - The supply of waste batteries in North China is expected to be tight during the September 3 military parade, which may lead to limited raw material availability for smelting plants until mid-September [1]

Core Insights - China's aluminum production in August 2025 reached 5.548 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1% but a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] - From January to August 2025, China's aluminum production totaled 43.79 million tons, remaining approximately flat year-on-year [1] - The demand for aluminum is currently transitioning between the off-peak and peak seasons, resulting in limited production growth [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global primary aluminum supply shortage of 11.99 million tons in July 2025, with production at 6.127 million tons and consumption at 6.2469 million tons [1] - For the period from January to July 2025, global primary aluminum production was 42.3681 million tons, while consumption reached 43.3534 million tons, resulting in a supply shortfall of 0.9853 million tons [1] Production and Consumption - In July 2025, global primary aluminum production was recorded at 6.127 million tons [1] - Global primary aluminum consumption in July 2025 was 6.2469 million tons [1] - The supply deficit for July 2025 was 11.99 million tons [1] Year-to-Date Performance - From January to July 2025, the total global primary aluminum production amounted to 42.3681 million tons [1] - During the same period, global primary aluminum consumption totaled 43.3534 million tons [1] - The supply shortfall for the first seven months of 2025 was 0.9853 million tons [1]

Group 1 - The global refined tin production in July 2025 is projected to be 25,600 tons, while the consumption is expected to be 27,400 tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 1,800 tons [2] - From January to July 2025, the global refined tin production totals 203,300 tons, with consumption at 214,200 tons, leading to a supply shortage of 10,900 tons [2] - The global tin ore production in July 2025 is estimated at 20,700 tons [2] Group 2 - The total global tin ore production from January to July 2025 is reported to be 176,700 tons [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - On September 17, LME copper prices fell to a one-week low as traders reduced positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with demand from major metal-consuming countries being suppressed due to recent copper price increases [1][4] - LME three-month copper dropped by $130.5, or 1.29%, closing at $9,996.0 per ton, still above the 21-day moving average support level at $9,912 [1][2] - The copper price had previously reached a 15-month high of $10,192.50 per ton on Monday [1] Group 2: Other Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum decreased by $34, or 1.25%, closing at $2,683.0 per ton, after hitting a six-month high of $2,720 [2][5] - LME three-month zinc fell by $48.5, or 1.62%, closing at $2,943.5 per ton [2][6] - LME three-month lead increased by $2.5, or 0.12%, closing at $2,012.5 per ton [2][7] - LME three-month nickel declined by $23, or 0.15%, closing at $15,405.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month tin dropped by $536, or 1.54%, closing at $34,345.0 per ton [2][9] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Influences - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that China acted as a seller in the copper market this week, with a lack of systemic buying and bearish mean reversion sell signals contributing to the overall weakness in copper prices [4] - Neil Welsh from Britannia Global Markets indicated that traders are not only focused on the expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve but are also awaiting clarity on future policy directions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's refined copper production in August 2025 reached 1.301 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - In August, only three smelters underwent maintenance, while two new smelters in East China continued to ramp up production, contributing to a slight month-on-month increase in refined copper output [1] - The high sulfuric acid prices in August helped offset smelting losses, and the processing fees for copper concentrate showed a trend of rising and then falling, which also supported the production levels [1] Group 2 - In September, five smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting a total of 1 million tons of crude smelting capacity, leading to an expected production decrease of 14,000 tons compared to August [1] - Apart from routine maintenance, a significant reduction in production is anticipated due to tight supply of anode copper, which is expected to impact 60% of the surveyed sample, resulting in a substantial decline in September output [1]

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，降息预期继续支撑，并且近期矿山有扰动，预计短期价格保有一定韧 性，延续高位波动。潜在利空是物流回流，但CL价差仍为正，预计兑现偏慢。 （文华综合） 近期海外铜矿端不时传来干扰，国内铜精矿加工费低位徘徊，原料端偏紧仍然限制冶炼端增量。伴随着 沪铜站稳80000关口，国内精废价差有所扩大，废铜对精铜的消费替代性有所增加，高价对于铜需求的 抑制有所显现，但国内社库累积仍然有限，下方支撑仍然存在。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内跌幅略有扩大，收盘下跌0.65%。高价对下游需求有一定抑制，美联储议息会 议落地前夕市场情绪谨慎，沪铜略有回落。 由于美联储本月降息预期较强，最近美指持续弱势运行，有色走势受振。目前市场消化本次降息25个基 点的可能性，鲍威尔讲话传递的政策前景成为关注焦点，靴子落地前夕，市场情绪整体谨慎，贵金属行 情回落，铜价也略有下跌。 ...

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in August 2025 reached 1.301 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to August 2025 totaled 9.891 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1] Production Data Summary - Total production of ten non-ferrous metals in August was 6.978 million tons, with a cumulative total of 54.317 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% for the month and 3.1% cumulatively [2] - Refined copper (electrolytic copper) production for August was 1.301 million tons, with a cumulative total of 9.891 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.8% for the month and 10.1% cumulatively [2] - Lead production in August was 667,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 5.116 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the month and 0.9% cumulatively [2] - Zinc production in August was 651,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 4.836 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 22.8% for the month and 5.4% cumulatively [2] - Primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August was 3.800 million tons, with a cumulative total of 30.138 million tons, indicating a slight decrease of 0.5% for the month but a 2.2% increase cumulatively [2] - Aluminum alloy production in August was 1.635 million tons, with a cumulative total of 12.324 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% for the month and 15.3% cumulatively [2] - Copper products production in August was 2.222 million tons, with a cumulative total of 16.598 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 9.8% for the month and 10.7% cumulatively [2] - Aluminum products production in August was 5.548 million tons, with a cumulative total of 43.790 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% for the month and no change cumulatively [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined on September 16, 2023, after reaching a 15-month high, with a drop of $60 or 0.59%, closing at $10,126.5 per ton [1] - The previous day, copper prices peaked at $10,192.50 per ton, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1] - Traders noted that the rise in copper prices above the psychological level of $10,000 led to a wait-and-see approach from Chinese buyers [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with LME three-month aluminum rising by $16.5 or 0.61% to $2,717.0 per ton, and zinc increasing by $13 or 0.44% to $2,992.0 per ton [5] - LME three-month lead rose by $8 or 0.4% to $2,010.0 per ton, while nickel fell by $8 or 0.05% to $15,428.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month tin saw a significant increase of $242 or 0.7%, closing at $34,881.0 per ton [8] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a rate cut putting pressure on the dollar [4] - A decrease in copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has raised concerns about demand from China [4] - LME approved zinc inventories have decreased by 60% since mid-July, leading to worries about zinc supply in the LME market [4]