Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 1,675 tons, representing a 1.10% decline, with current inventory at 150,950 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory decreased by 1,500 tons, a 0.31% drop, bringing the total to 483,775 tons [1] - Zinc inventory fell by 1,175 tons, a 2.34% decrease, resulting in a total of 48,975 tons [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,950 tons, a 0.87% rise, with current inventory at 226,434 tons [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained unchanged at 1,500 tons [1] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In the copper warehouse, the current inventory is 150,950 tons, with a decrease of 1,675 tons from the previous day [4] - The Rotterdam location for copper saw a decrease of 1,050 tons, bringing the total to 18,350 tons [4] - The aluminum warehouse in Klang experienced a decrease of 1,500 tons, resulting in a total of 312,900 tons [5] - Zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 1,175 tons, now totaling 48,875 tons [9] - Nickel inventory in the main warehouse increased by 1,950 tons, now at 226,434 tons [13]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, valued at $53 billion, could create the world's largest copper mine by the early 2030s, surpassing BHP's Escondida mine in Chile [2] Group 1: Merger Details - The merger focuses on integrating Teck's Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine with Anglo American's Collahuasi mine, which together could produce approximately 1 million tons of copper annually [3] - The integration plan includes a 15-kilometer conveyor belt connecting high-grade ore from Collahuasi to QB's processing facilities, expected to deliver an additional 175,000 tons of copper annually from 2030 to 2049 at lower costs and shorter timelines compared to independent development [4] Group 2: Production and Financial Impact - If completed, the merged entity would rank among the top five copper producers globally, with an annual output of 1.35 million tons, compared to Escondida's production of 1.28 million tons last year [4] - The companies anticipate generating $800 million in annual pre-tax synergies, leading to an additional $1.4 billion in EBITDA from shared procurement and operational efficiencies [5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The successful operation of QB is critical, as it has faced issues such as cost overruns, pit instability, plant shutdowns, and waste storage challenges [6] - Analysts emphasize that before the combined facilities can rival Escondida, the operational restoration of QB is essential [7] - Wood Mackenzie estimates Teck's post-tax valuation at $10.8 billion, with $13.8 billion attributed to copper and $1.1 billion to zinc, factoring in potential operational setbacks at QB [7]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a 15-month high, driven by a decline in the US dollar and a framework agreement between China and the US regarding TikTok-related issues [1][4] - On September 15, LME three-month copper rose by $119, or 1.18%, closing at $10,186.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $10,192.50, the highest since June 4 of the previous year [1][5] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 16%, but has struggled to maintain significant gains after surpassing the $10,000 mark [5] Group 2 - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $11, or 0.41%, closing at $2,700.5 per ton [2][7] - Three-month zinc rose by $22, or 0.74%, closing at $2,979.0 per ton [2][8] - Conversely, three-month lead fell by $15.5, or 0.77%, closing at $2,002.0 per ton, while three-month tin decreased by $336, or 0.96%, closing at $34,639.0 per ton [2][9][11] Group 3 - The decline in the US dollar index is noted, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, expected to hold meetings this week, with a rate cut anticipated [6]

Core Insights - LME aluminum inventory has stabilized after a slight increase, currently at 485,275 tons, marking a near six-month high [1] - SHFE aluminum inventory rose by 3.56% to 128,499 tons, reaching a new three-month high [1] Inventory Trends - LME aluminum inventory has remained unchanged for four consecutive days after a slight increase [1] - SHFE aluminum inventory data shows a weekly increase, indicating a trend reversal in the domestic market [1][3] Comparative Data - As of September 12, 2025, LME and SHFE aluminum inventories are 485,275 tons and 128,499 tons respectively, with LME showing a consistent level over the past week [5] - Historical data indicates fluctuations in both LME and SHFE inventories, with LME inventory peaking at 485,275 tons recently [4][5]

Group 1 - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of primary aluminum reached 30.14 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] Group 2 - In August 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.98 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of ten non-ferrous metals was 54.32 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [1]

Core Insights - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August 2025 was 3.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] Production and Capacity - In August, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong continued to shift towards Yunnan, while the capacity in Qinghai was fully replaced and put into operation [1] - The early-stage technological transformation projects in Guangxi began to resume production, leading to a slight increase in operational capacity and a marginal rise in production [1] - As of September, SMM indicated that with the gradual commissioning of replacement projects, domestic electrolytic aluminum operational capacity is expected to see a slight increase, with daily aluminum ingot production achieving growth [1]

Group 1 - The overall inventory levels for various metals show a decline in copper and zinc, while aluminum remains stable, and tin has seen a slight increase [1][2][4] - Copper inventory decreased by 1,325 tons, representing a 0.86% drop, with a total of 152,625 tons in stock [1][4] - Zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons, a 0.74% decline, bringing the total to 50,150 tons [1][9] Group 2 - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 485,275 tons, with no new entries or exits reported [1][5] - Tin inventory increased by 25 tons, a 0.95% rise, resulting in a total of 2,645 tons [1][11] - The registered warehouse receipts for copper decreased by 17.13%, while the cancellation rate for zinc was reported at 34.50% [2][9]

（文华综合） 印尼矿业部一位官员表示，由于自由港麦克莫兰运营的Grasberge铜矿发生泥石流事故，只有Block Cave 已经停止运营，其他较小的矿区仍在运营。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费仍然低位徘徊，变动有 限，买卖双方分歧较大。 沪铜站稳80000关口后延续强势，今日偏强震荡，期价徘徊在81000一线附近，收盘上涨0.35%。铜市原 料端仍然偏紧，下游需求改善有限，社会库存继续增加，不过在降息预期提振下，市场氛围偏暖，沪铜 偏强震荡。 金瑞期货表示，近期印尼矿山出现生产扰动，预计小幅影响产量。冶炼环节进入9月国内冶炼检修增 加，结合再生冶炼原料同样转紧，维持冶炼产量重心下移预期。进出口方面，近期到港开始有所增加， 或因前期窗口打开。消费端，进入9月后下游订单边际改善幅度不大，或有铜价重心偏高影响。再生企 业反馈影响未持续发酵，开工边际有所回升。短期供需走弱，预计延续紧平衡状态。 9月15日国内市场电解铜现货库存15.79万吨，较11日增0.89万吨。上海市场近期进口虽仍有所到货但对 比前期表现减少，且国产货源到货依旧有限，但铜价高位运行，下游采购需求提升空间有限，库存小幅 下降；然江苏市场临近交割， ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported that refined tin exports in August amounted to 3,246.46 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 49% and a month-on-month decline of 14%, marking a continuous drop for three consecutive months [2] - The closure of Indonesia's tin export window has led to a sustained decline in export volumes, with August exports reaching a near two-year low [2]

Group 1 - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade reported a 49% year-on-year decrease in refined tin exports for August, totaling 3,246.46 tons [2] - The refined tin export volume in July was 3,792.22 tons, indicating a decline from the previous month [2] - In the same month last year, the export volume was significantly higher at 6,436.27 tons [2]