菲律宾统计局公布的数据显示，2025年10月，菲律宾出口镍矿617.857万吨，其中，对中国出口379.72万 吨，对印尼出口238.137万吨。 ...

Core Insights - The report provides an overview of the changes in LME (London Metal Exchange) inventory levels for various metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, tin, and lead, indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics in the market. Inventory Changes - **Copper**: The total inventory stands at 159,425 tons, with no change from the previous day. Registered warrants decreased by 1.52% to 6,475 tons, indicating a slight reduction in available supply [1][4]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increased by 275 tons to 52,025 tons, with registered warrants showing a decrease of 0.91% to 5,425 tons, reflecting a stable demand [2][9]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 260,875 tons, with registered warrants down by 1.66% to 136,525 tons, suggesting a tightening supply [1][5]. - **Tin**: The inventory remains unchanged at 3,160 tons, with registered warrants increasing by 5.56% to 380 tons, indicating a stable market [1][11]. - **Lead**: The inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 260,875 tons, with registered warrants at 136,525 tons, showing a significant registered warrant percentage of 52.33% [1][7]. Warehouse Specific Changes - **Copper Warehouses**: The largest warehouse, Changxiong, saw an increase of 100 tons, while Rotterdam experienced a decrease of 75 tons [4]. - **Aluminum Warehouses**: The main warehouse in Klang reported a decrease of 1,150 tons, while the Rotterdam warehouse had a registered warrant percentage of 28.99% [5]. - **Zinc Warehouses**: The Singapore warehouse reported a decrease of 50 tons, while the Kaohsiung warehouse increased by 325 tons [9]. Summary of Registered and Cancelled Warrants - **Copper**: Registered warrants decreased by 1.52%, while cancelled warrants accounted for 4.06% of the total inventory [2][4]. - **Zinc**: The cancellation rate for registered warrants was 10.43%, indicating a relatively high turnover in this metal [2][9]. - **Aluminum**: The cancellation rate was 14.78%, reflecting a significant portion of the inventory being withdrawn from registered status [5].

受非洲锡矿端供应扰动加剧，市场对原料供应收缩的预期持续发酵，叠加美联储降息预期抬升，沪锡盘 初大幅飙升，主力合约一度涨近4%，最高上探313700元/吨，创三年半新高。随后价格迅速回落，涨幅 明显收窄，截止收盘主力合约收涨1.68%，报306580元/吨。 近期非洲锡矿主产区地缘局势急剧升级，刚果（金）东部北基伍省、南基伍省、伊图里省及上韦莱省等 核心锡矿富集区域深陷武装冲突，安全局势持续恶化。从产业影响来看，当前全球第三大锡矿刚果 （金）Bisie 矿的开采生产暂未受到直接波及，但市场对供应链风险的担忧已显著升温。市场普遍预 期，冲突区域的物流运输网络将面临中断风险，矿石运输的时间成本与安全成本或将大幅攀升，进而对 全球锡矿供应链的稳定性构成严峻挑战。 进入四季度，锡下游消费端逐步步入传统淡季，整体需求延续弱势运行格局。从当前下游实际消费表现 及终端企业排产数据来看，今年消费强度较往年同期出现明显下滑。终端需求层面，无论是锡的传统消 费领域，还是新兴消费品类，均呈现不同程度的需求收缩。尽管半导体行业受益于 AI 算力扩张，对锡 需求形成一定增量支撑，但受限于当前该领域需求规模，其对整体消费的拉动作用相对有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum due to improved macroeconomic conditions and anticipated production cuts from domestic smelters, with a focus on downstream demand performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper prices in Shanghai strengthened, opening higher and closing with a 2.37% increase [1] - The official manufacturing PMI in China for November slightly rose to 49.2, indicating improved economic conditions, with the production index returning to the threshold level [1] - New export orders index saw its largest increase in six months, contributing to a positive macroeconomic atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) has reached a consensus among its members to reduce production by over 10% by 2026 to improve market conditions and address the distortion in copper concentrate processing fees [1] - Increased disruptions to overseas mines have led to low processing fees for domestic copper concentrates, putting pressure on smelters [1] - If major domestic smelters implement their production cut plans next year, concerns over supply tightness may intensify [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Guotou Futures indicates that short-term precious metals provide premium sentiment, while the medium to long-term outlook remains bullish for next year's average copper price [1] - Demand driven by liquidity, green carbon, and intelligent computing, combined with low processing fees at the mining end, is expected to support price increases [1] - Short positions are recommended to be held, with attention to changes in capital flow [1]

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in copper inventory, reaching 159,425 tons, marking a six-month high [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) indicated a decrease in copper inventory by 11.46% to 97,930 tons, the lowest in one and a half months [1] - International copper inventory fell by 675 tons to 12,077 tons [1] - COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, reaching 418,727 tons, a phase high [1] Inventory Trends - LME copper inventory increased from 157,175 tons on November 27 to 159,425 tons on November 28 [4] - SHFE copper inventory decreased from 110,603 tons on November 21 to 97,930 tons on November 28 [4] - COMEX copper inventory rose from 415,880 tons on November 25 to 418,727 tons on November 28 [4] Market Implications - Generally, a decline in domestic and international exchange inventories supports copper prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure [1]

（文华综合） 早间国际铜和沪铜携手走强，目前涨幅都超过2%，其中沪铜再创上市新高。最近美联储降息预期回 升，宏观氛围偏暖，国内传来冶炼端未来降产能消息，铜价重心上移。 ...

Core Insights - LME aluminum inventory has decreased to 539,050 tons, marking a one-month low [1] - Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum inventory has also declined by 6.82% to 115,277 tons for the week ending November 28 [1] Inventory Trends - LME aluminum inventory has shown a consistent decline, with the latest figures indicating a drop from 541,050 tons on November 27 to 539,050 tons on November 28 [3] - SHFE aluminum inventory decreased from 123,716 tons on November 21 to 115,277 tons on November 28, reflecting a significant reduction [3] - The trend of decreasing inventories in both domestic and international exchanges is generally supportive of aluminum prices, while increasing inventories would have a negative impact [1]

11月28日（周五），摩根大通（JP Morgan）周五在一份报告中称，预计2026年一季度铜价将升至 12,000美元/吨，预计2026年全年均价料为12,075美元/吨。 该报告预计2026年铝均价为2,675美元/吨。 该报告还表示，"在持续强劲的需求、官方储备积累和投资者多样化的支持下，金价料升至5,000美元/盎 司。" 报告还预计白银价格将随黄金一起上涨，可能升至85美元/盎司。 （文华综合 ） ...

Core Viewpoint - Mercuria Energy Group's metal business head, Kostas Bintas, maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices, warning that the influx of copper into the U.S. may deplete global inventories in other regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent weeks have seen traders increase copper shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs, aiming to capitalize on the significant premium of COMEX copper [1]. - The volatility in copper prices this year was triggered by President Trump's initial tariff threats, leading to a surge in copper imports and subsequent price spikes [1][2]. - Bintas indicates that the revival of profitable U.S. arbitrage trading is exacerbating supply shortages in other regions, suggesting that copper prices will soon rise further [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - Bintas notes that the LME copper price is nearing record highs and is expected to continue rising due to tightening supply [2]. - Despite a slowdown in U.S. copper imports following Trump's tariff decisions, Mercuria anticipates a rebound in imports in the coming months, potentially matching record levels from the second quarter of this year [2]. - The ongoing awareness of the potential for increased metal flows into the U.S. is leading to concerns about supply shortages in other markets, even amid weak demand [2][3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - Bintas acknowledges that his bullish forecast is driven by U.S. policy, highlighting how Trump's economic policies have disrupted traditional supply-demand dynamics in the metal market [3]. - Reports indicate that some traders are willing to pay premiums significantly above LME prices for Chilean copper, reflecting the heightened demand and pricing pressures [3].

受印尼和智利矿场事故等供应中断因素影响，加之未来数年需求增速加快，市场对铜供应短缺的预期推 动LME铜价于10月29日攀升至每吨11,200美元的历史高位。 在纽约商品交易所，铜价于7月24日创下每磅5.8950美元（合每吨12,996美元）纪录高位，当时美国尚未 宣布是否对电力和建筑行业使用的铜材征收进口关税。 11月28日（周五），行业人士称，智利国有铜业公司Codelco向美国客户提供的铜溢价创历史新高，每 吨较伦敦金属交易所（LME）溢价500美元以上。 精炼铜最终获得豁免，免于8月1日生效的50%进口关税。 该溢价在基准LME铜价基础上追加支付，反映供需基本面状况，同时涵盖运输费、税费等成本。 随着美国铜进口关税政策仍在审议中，Comex铜价此后持续回落。商务部长Howard Lutnick将于2026年6 月底前向特朗普提交国内铜市最新报告。 （文华综合） ...