8月13日（周三），伦敦期铜在平盘上下震荡，上海期铜走强，因美国通胀数据支持美国联邦储备理事 会(FED/美联储)下月降息的预期，但库存增加抑制了铜价涨幅。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜下滑0.05%，报每吨9,836.00美元。受到中美就24%关税继续暂停 等达成共识提振，铜价周二触及逾两周高点。 8月迄今为止，LME注册仓库的铜库存攀升了11%，而上海期货交易所铜库存增加近13%。 交易所铜库存增加，是因预期美国总统特朗普将自8月1日起对铜实施50%关税，导致出现一波预先将船 货运往美国以赚取高额溢价的热潮，如今特朗普将精炼铜排除在50%关税之外，船货运往美国的热潮也 随之止息。 上述分析师称："短期内，在库存上升的情况下，供应过剩的风险近在眼前。" 伦敦其他金属方面，LME三个月期铝上涨0.23%，报每吨2,625.50美元；三个月期镍下跌0.08%，报每吨 15,320美元；三个月期铅下跌0.52%，报每吨2,005.00美元；三个月期锡下跌0.40%，报每吨33,750美 元；三个月期锌下跌0.28%，报每吨2,839.50美元。 上海金属方面，沪铝上涨0.63%，报每吨20,790元；沪镍下 ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a sideways trend, with the main contract down by 0.24% to 122,340 yuan/ton, influenced by a moderate overall inflation in the US and a 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with strong pricing sentiment from Philippine mines, while Indonesian primary nickel output remains high, leading to a continued decline in nickel ore prices, although they are still at relatively high levels [1] - Demand from the downstream nickel iron sector is improving, with steel mills reducing losses, which has slightly eased the pressure on raw material pricing [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of nickel products is high, with signs of production slowdown in Indonesian smelters, but the supply remains elevated [2] - Domestic demand for nickel has significantly increased in the first half of the year, yet the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating limited contradictions in nickel's supply and demand [2] - Short-term focus should be on changes in the macroeconomic environment, while medium-term attention should be on the potential tightening of Indonesian nickel ore supply [2]

Group 1 - The rapid construction of AI data centers is expected to tighten global copper supply, potentially leading to a supply gap of 6 million tons by 2035 [1] - The average annual demand for copper in the AI sector is projected to be around 400,000 tons over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028, with a cumulative total usage exceeding 4.3 million tons by 2035 [1] - Demand for copper from other industries, such as power transmission and wind energy, is also surging, with expected usage nearly doubling by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The increase in AI capacity is putting pressure on an already tight market, exacerbated by years of insufficient investment in new copper supply [1] - Following the unexpected announcement by former U.S. President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff, COMEX copper futures experienced a significant drop of 20% in late July [1] - As demand accelerates and supply growth lags, analysts predict copper prices will peak at $13,500 per ton by 2028 [1] Group 3 - By 2035, the global copper supply is expected to be only 29 million tons, significantly below the 35 million tons needed to meet demand, indicating a worsening supply shortage [1] - Copper accounts for nearly 6% of the capital expenditure in a data center project [1]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a decrease in tin inventory last week, but there was an increase in the first two days of this week, with the latest inventory level at 1,765 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that tin inventory continued to accumulate for the fourth consecutive week, with a weekly increase of 1.75% to 7,805 tons, marking a two-month high [1] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventories since July 2025 shows the following data: as of August 12, 2025, LME inventory was 1,765 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 7,805 tons [4][5]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose to a two-week high due to easing trade concerns and a decline in the US dollar following inflation data, closing at $9,840.5 per ton, up $109 or 1.12% [1] - LME copper touched a peak of $9,855 per ton, the highest level since July 28 [1] - The increase in LME copper inventory by over 70% since the end of June, reaching 155,000 tons, has put pressure on copper prices and alleviated supply concerns [3] Group 2 - The US and China agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs on each other's goods for 90 days starting August 12, which may positively impact market sentiment [3] - The US consumer prices showed a moderate increase, enhancing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate demand for dollar-denominated metals [3] - LME spot copper has widened its discount to three-month copper to $84 per ton, the largest since February [3]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of mineral transfer registration authority by Shanxi Province's Natural Resources Department has boosted market sentiment, leading to increased trading activity in the alumina market, particularly in the main contract ao2509, which saw a rise of over 4% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The main alumina contract ao2509 experienced a trading volume increase of 123,000 lots, reaching 296,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 18,700 lots to 96,100 lots [1] - The long-short positions in the top 20 rankings for the main alumina contract showed a reduction in both long and short positions, with a significant decrease in short positions by 13,800 lots to 55,280 lots [1] - The long-short ratio increased from 0.89 to 1.01, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook [1] Group 2: Position Changes - Guotai Junan Futures increased its long positions by 664 lots while reducing short positions by 4,016 lots, resulting in a net short position reduction to 2,788 lots [3] - CITIC Futures expanded its long position by over 2,000 lots, transitioning from a net short position of 203 lots to a net long position of 2,696 lots [3] - Other firms like Yong'an Futures and Huatai Futures also adjusted their positions, with some showing a shift from short to long, reflecting expectations of continued upward movement in prices [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the positive market sentiment, reports indicate that domestic mines are unable to resume production, which may limit the impact of the policy change on alumina supply [4] - The actual effect of the policy adjustment on local alumina production is expected to be limited, with new production capacities and the resumption of previously reduced capacities likely to lead to an increase in output [4] - The anticipated increase in alumina supply may outpace demand growth, leading to expectations of oversupply in the market [4]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported an increase in nickel inventory, reaching a four-year high of 212,232 tons on August 8, before slightly decreasing to 211,296 tons [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a continuous accumulation of nickel inventory, increasing by 1.72% to 25,750 tons, marking a two-month high [1] - Generally, a decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges supports futures prices, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - A comparison of LME and SHFE nickel inventories since July 2025 shows the following data: - As of August 11, 2025, LME inventory was 211,296 tons - On August 8, 2025, LME inventory was 212,232 tons, while SHFE inventory was 26,194 tons - The trend indicates a consistent increase in SHFE inventory over the past weeks [4][5]

以下为详细数据： | | 2025年7月 | 2025年6月 | 2024年7月 | 环比变动 | | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 横滨 | 136, 900 | 138, 100 | 138, 600 + | -0.87% + | | -1.23% | | 名古屋 | 159, 700 | 162, 300 | 141, 700 1 | -1.60% ↑ | | +12. 70% | | 大贩 | 18,800 | 16, 300 | 19.300 ↑ | +15.34% ↓ | | -2.59% | | 京 | 315, 400 | 316, 700 | 299, 600 | -0. 41% | 1 | +5. 27% | 8月12日（周二），丸红株式会社表示，截至7月底，日本三大港口铝库存降至315,400吨，较前一个月 减少0.4%。 丸红从横滨、名古屋和大阪的港口收集数据。 ...

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 155,000 tons, reflecting a change of -0.45% [1] - Aluminum inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 477,100 tons, showing a change of +0.26% [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79,550 tons, indicating a change of -1.09% [1] - Lead inventory remained unchanged at 211,746 tons, with a slight increase of 450 tons, representing a change of +0.21% [1] - Aluminum alloy inventory remained stable at 1,500 tons [1] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - The registered warehouse for copper saw a decrease in inventory from 155,700 tons to 155,000 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 143,400 tons [4] - The registered warehouse for aluminum increased from 475,850 tons to 477,100 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 462,875 tons [5] - Zinc registered warehouse stock decreased from 80,425 tons to 79,550 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 45,700 tons [9] - Tin inventory increased from 1,750 tons to 1,765 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 1,480 tons [11] - Nickel inventory increased from 211,296 tons to 211,746 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 197,796 tons [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a weak supply and demand situation, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic sentiments. The main contract rose by 0.84% to 270,200 yuan/ton, but the overall market remains subdued due to low demand and tight supply conditions [1][2]. - Tin ore supply has not yet recovered, maintaining a tight domestic supply situation. Although there are expectations for supply recovery as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, actual output is delayed until the fourth quarter due to various factors [1][2]. - The downstream consumption is entering a low season, leading to weak demand performance. Orders in the home appliance sector are insufficient, and there is a significant decline in photovoltaic orders compared to the previous month, contributing to the overall weak demand [1][2]. Group 2 - The commentary from Jinrui Futures highlights that the raw material supply at domestic smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi is tight, with low operating rates. The demand side remains sluggish, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, and the overall terminal demand is weak [2]. - The current fundamental changes are limited, with a slight surplus in supply-demand balance observed in August. However, the magnitude is small, and uncertainties in the supply side, along with strong overseas demand, provide some support, suggesting a continuation of the oscillating market pattern in the short term [2].