Group 1 - LME copper prices increased slightly due to a weaker dollar, with a rise of $7.5 or 0.08%, closing at $9,773.5 per ton on August 15 [2][3] - The meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, is significant as it marks their first face-to-face meeting since June 2021 [2][3] - The market is observing the outcomes of the U.S.-Russia summit, which is expected to last at least 6 to 7 hours [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar's depreciation supports the market by making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies [5] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 20% increase in copper inventory over the past two weeks, reaching 86,361 tons, the highest level in two months [5] - Citi raised its three-month copper price forecast from $8,800 to $9,200 per ton, although this remains a bearish outlook compared to current prices due to U.S. tariff increases affecting manufacturing and economic growth [5]

沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情有所回暖，收盘微跌0.08%。美国PPI走高打压降息预期，美指走强形成 一定压制，不过铜市供需面暂时有支撑，跌幅十分有限。 此前美国7月CPI的温和令市场对于美联储9月降息押注大幅升温，甚至有降息50个基点的猜测，然而昨 日公布的7月PPI意外走高，大超市场预期，数据公布后市场虽然继续押注9月降息，但降息50个基点的 可能性基本被排除，主因市场担忧物价压力抬头，隔夜美指反弹，沪铜走势略显承压。 对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，通胀令降息预期有波动，未来仍有海外美国经济逐步走弱，国内反内卷 驱动行情放缓，物流回流潜在过剩。几个因素不利于铜价持续上涨，且有向下压力。未来需观察消费改 善情况，若持续弱于季节性则支撑能力有限。 （文华综合） 之前海外矿端干扰较多，国内铜精矿加工费反弹有限，今日智利国家铜业公司称埃尔特尼恩特铜矿冶炼 厂已重启运行。机构统计的7月国内精炼铜产量稳中有增，不过受原料端偏紧的限制，对于后续精炼铜 产量有下滑的预期，不过仍需落实。最近LME铜库存仍然呈现震荡回升姿态，不过国内精铜社会库存 低位徘徊，现货升水仍然偏高，继续为铜价提供支撑。 ...

Group 1: Inventory Changes - LME copper inventory decreased by 50 tons to 155,800 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 144,275 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.40% [1][3] - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 125 tons to 479,550 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 465,450 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.94% [1][5] - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 76,325 tons, with a registered warehouse receipt of 30,925 tons and a cancellation ratio of 40.52% [1][9] Group 2: Specific Warehouse Inventory - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory remained unchanged at 48,200 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 2.96% [3] - In Rotterdam, aluminum inventory decreased by 125 tons to 3,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 31.47% [5] - In Singapore, zinc inventory decreased by 1,125 tons to 76,225 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 40.54% [9] Group 3: Overall Market Trends - The overall trend shows a decrease in inventory levels across multiple metals, indicating potential supply constraints in the market [1][4][6] - The cancellation ratios for zinc and aluminum are notably high, suggesting increased demand or potential market speculation [1][9][5] - The fluctuations in inventory levels may impact pricing dynamics in the metals market moving forward [1][4][6]

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production reached 3.78 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [1] - Cumulative production from January to July 2025 totaled 26.38 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - In July 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China was 6.81 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - The cumulative production of these metals from January to July 2025 was 47.39 million tons, also indicating a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices declined due to a stronger US dollar and investor caution regarding tariffs, the Russia-Ukraine situation, and US interest rates [1][4] - On August 14, LME three-month copper fell by $37, or 0.38%, closing at $9,766.00 per ton [1][2] - The strong dollar, influenced by high US producer price inflation, makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [4] Group 2 - Other base metals showed mixed performance, with three-month aluminum up by $3.50 (0.13%), zinc up by $19.50 (0.69%), and lead up by $1.50 (0.08%), while tin and nickel saw declines [2] - Market analysts are closely watching upcoming events, including the Jackson Hole meeting and the FOMC's release of July meeting minutes, for potential market-moving information [4] - There is potential for market upside, but a triggering factor is needed to break the current trading range of $9,500 to $9,900 [4]

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, bringing the total to 155,850 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 144,800 tons and a cancellation ratio of 7.09% [3][2] - The highest cancellation ratio was observed in the location of Hla, at 15.48%, with a total inventory of 18,250 tons [3] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,050 tons to reach 479,675 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 465,450 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.97% [5] - The highest cancellation ratio was noted in Singapore, at 93.49%, with a total inventory of 4,225 tons [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 77,450 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 45,425 tons and a cancellation ratio of 41.35% [9] - The cancellation ratio in Singapore was slightly higher at 41.37%, with a total inventory of 77,350 tons [9] Group 4: Nickel Inventory Changes - LME nickel inventory increased by 42 tons to 211,140 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 198,666 tons and a cancellation ratio of 5.91% [13] - The highest cancellation ratio was recorded in the location of Baltimore, at 94.44%, with a total inventory of 108 tons [13] Group 5: Tin Inventory Changes - LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons to 1,830 tons, with a registered warehouse stock of 1,540 tons and a cancellation ratio of 15.85% [11] - The highest cancellation ratio was observed in the location of Baltimore, at 100%, with a total inventory of 30 tons [11]

Cochilco表示，智利今年的铜产量预计将达到558万吨，较去年增长1.5%。5月份，该委员会预测产量增 幅为3%。 Cochilco将2026年的产量增幅预测维持在3%，但将产量预估从597万吨下调至575万吨。 WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah表示，本周即将公布的中国数据可能为基本金属提供更明确的 方向。 据证券时报网报道，宁德时代8月11日在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂 停了开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司 整体经营影响不大。 Shah表示："停止宁德时代锂矿项目建设，展现了遏制'内卷化'的决心。我们正在关注铜精炼产能过剩 问题是否会迎来类似措施，这类措施可能会支撑铜价。" 智利国家铜业委员会（Cochilco）周三将2025年和2026年的铜均价预测维持在每磅4.30美元，原因是精 矿供应有限，且中国和其他新兴经济体的需求保持坚挺。 8月13日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜逆转走势收跌，贸易担忧缓和的支撑作用消退。 伦敦时间8月13日17:00(北京时间8月14日00:00)，LME三个 ...

8月13日（周三），伦敦期铜在平盘上下震荡，上海期铜走强，因美国通胀数据支持美国联邦储备理事 会(FED/美联储)下月降息的预期，但库存增加抑制了铜价涨幅。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜下滑0.05%，报每吨9,836.00美元。受到中美就24%关税继续暂停 等达成共识提振，铜价周二触及逾两周高点。 8月迄今为止，LME注册仓库的铜库存攀升了11%，而上海期货交易所铜库存增加近13%。 交易所铜库存增加，是因预期美国总统特朗普将自8月1日起对铜实施50%关税，导致出现一波预先将船 货运往美国以赚取高额溢价的热潮，如今特朗普将精炼铜排除在50%关税之外，船货运往美国的热潮也 随之止息。 上述分析师称："短期内，在库存上升的情况下，供应过剩的风险近在眼前。" 伦敦其他金属方面，LME三个月期铝上涨0.23%，报每吨2,625.50美元；三个月期镍下跌0.08%，报每吨 15,320美元；三个月期铅下跌0.52%，报每吨2,005.00美元；三个月期锡下跌0.40%，报每吨33,750美 元；三个月期锌下跌0.28%，报每吨2,839.50美元。 上海金属方面，沪铝上涨0.63%，报每吨20,790元；沪镍下 ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a sideways trend, with the main contract down by 0.24% to 122,340 yuan/ton, influenced by a moderate overall inflation in the US and a 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with strong pricing sentiment from Philippine mines, while Indonesian primary nickel output remains high, leading to a continued decline in nickel ore prices, although they are still at relatively high levels [1] - Demand from the downstream nickel iron sector is improving, with steel mills reducing losses, which has slightly eased the pressure on raw material pricing [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of nickel products is high, with signs of production slowdown in Indonesian smelters, but the supply remains elevated [2] - Domestic demand for nickel has significantly increased in the first half of the year, yet the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating limited contradictions in nickel's supply and demand [2] - Short-term focus should be on changes in the macroeconomic environment, while medium-term attention should be on the potential tightening of Indonesian nickel ore supply [2]

Group 1 - The rapid construction of AI data centers is expected to tighten global copper supply, potentially leading to a supply gap of 6 million tons by 2035 [1] - The average annual demand for copper in the AI sector is projected to be around 400,000 tons over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tons in 2028, with a cumulative total usage exceeding 4.3 million tons by 2035 [1] - Demand for copper from other industries, such as power transmission and wind energy, is also surging, with expected usage nearly doubling by 2035 [1] Group 2 - The increase in AI capacity is putting pressure on an already tight market, exacerbated by years of insufficient investment in new copper supply [1] - Following the unexpected announcement by former U.S. President Trump to exclude refined copper from a 50% import tariff, COMEX copper futures experienced a significant drop of 20% in late July [1] - As demand accelerates and supply growth lags, analysts predict copper prices will peak at $13,500 per ton by 2028 [1] Group 3 - By 2035, the global copper supply is expected to be only 29 million tons, significantly below the 35 million tons needed to meet demand, indicating a worsening supply shortage [1] - Copper accounts for nearly 6% of the capital expenditure in a data center project [1]