Group 1 - Marubeni Corp reports that aluminum inventory at Japan's three major ports decreased to 315,400 tons by the end of July 2025, a reduction of 0.4% from the previous month [1] - Yokohama and Nagoya saw a decline in inventory, while Osaka experienced an increase [1] - This marks the second consecutive month of declining aluminum inventory at Japanese ports, indicating relatively weak demand as the aluminum premium in Q3 significantly dropped compared to Q2 levels [1] Group 2 - Specific inventory levels as of July 2025: Yokohama at 136,900 tons (down 0.87% month-on-month), Nagoya at 159,700 tons (down 1.60% month-on-month), and Osaka at 18,800 tons (up 15.34% month-on-month) [2] - Year-on-year changes show Nagoya's inventory increased by 12.70%, while Yokohama and Osaka saw decreases of 1.23% and 2.59% respectively [2] - Overall, the total inventory of 315,400 tons reflects a 5.27% increase compared to July 2024 [2]

Group 1: Market Reactions - LME copper prices increased by 0.30% to $9,761 per ton, driven by the consensus between China and the U.S. to continue the suspension of 24% tariffs [1] - The SHFE September copper contract remained stable at ¥78,940 per ton, reflecting positive sentiment in the commodity market due to the tariff suspension agreement [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of increased copper supply are suppressing price gains, with Codelco reporting a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production to 120,200 tons in June [3] - The approval for the resumption of operations in unaffected areas of the El Teniente copper mine alleviated supply concerns, impacting copper prices [3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - LME aluminum prices rose by 0.39% to $2,598 per ton, while nickel prices fell by 0.10% to $15,335 per ton [4] - In Shanghai, aluminum prices remained stable at ¥20,680 per ton, with nickel prices increasing by 0.79% to ¥122,590 per ton [4]

Codelco是全球最大的铜矿商。 与此同时，必和必拓（BHP）旗下全球最大铜矿Escondida矿6月铜产量下滑33%至76,400吨。 6月份，英美资源（Anglo American）和嘉能可（Glencore）联合经营的大型Collahuasi铜矿产量同比下降29%，至34,300吨。 （文华综合） 8月11日（周一），智利铜业委员会Cochilco公布的数据显示，智利国有矿产商--Codelco公司6月铜产量同比增长17%，攀升至120,200吨。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell on August 11 due to the approval of partial resumption of operations at Codelco's El Teniente mine and a strengthening dollar, with three-month copper closing at $9,731.5 per ton, down $30.5 or 0.31% [1] - Codelco announced that Chilean regulatory authorities have approved the reopening of parts of the El Teniente mine that were not affected by the July 31 collapse, alleviating supply concerns in the market [3] - The LME reported a significant inflow of Chinese copper and Indian aluminum into registered warehouses in July, reducing the market share of Russian copper and aluminum [3] Group 2 - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $21.00 to $2,588.00, three-month zinc down $5.00 to $2,822.00, and three-month lead down $9.50 to $1,998.00 [2] - In contrast, three-month tin increased by $181.00 to $33,805.00, and three-month nickel rose by $195.00 to $15,351.00, indicating mixed performance across different metals [2] - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation report, which may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]

Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel sulfate exports reached 16,320 tons in June 2025, with 100% of the exports going to China [1] - Nickel pig iron exports from Indonesia totaled 951,558 tons, with 94.14% (895,837 tons) exported to China [1] - Indonesia exported 15,251 tons of nickel matte, with only 29.87% (4,555 tons) going to China [1] - The export volume of Indonesia's nickel wet processing intermediate products was 160,054 tons, with 100% (160,052 tons) exported to China [1] - Non-alloyed nickel exports from Indonesia amounted to 7,340 tons, with 73.47% (5,393 tons) exported to China [1]

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铝库存继续维持上行趋势，最新库存水平为470,575 吨，增至逾四个月新高。 2023年以来LME和上期所铝库存对比 以下为2025年7月以来LME和上期所铝库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/8 | 470, 575 | 113, 614 | | 2025/8/7 | 469, 500 | | | 2025/8/6 | 467, 925 | | | 2025/8/5 | 466, 025 | | | 2025/8/4 | 463, 725 | | | 2025/8/1 | 462, 800 | 117, 527 | | 2025/7/31 | 461, 025 | | | 2025/7/30 | 460, 350 | | | 2025/7/29 | 456, 100 | | | 2025/7/28 | 454, 275 | | | 2025/7/25 | 450, 825 | 115, 790 | | 2025/7/24 | 448, 100 | | | 2025/7/23 | 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a bullish trend due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with supply and demand pressures remaining manageable [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent disturbances in overseas supply have slightly increased compared to previous periods, but some situations have calmed down [1] - Codelco, the Chilean state copper company, has received authorization to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have recently rebounded from low levels, but the extent of the rebound is limited, indicating ongoing concerns about supply tightness [1] Inventory and Market Activity - As of August 11, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stands at 132,200 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [1] - The decline in inventory is primarily attributed to reduced arrivals in the Shanghai market and increased outflows from warehouses due to downstream enterprises purchasing at lower prices [1] Price Outlook - New Lake Futures indicates that the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, significantly restoring market expectations for interest rate cuts, which has positively impacted copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand situation remains relatively healthy, with ongoing tightness in copper mine supply and frequent disturbances at mining sites [1] - Both overseas and domestic smelters are expected to initiate production cuts, while copper demand remains resilient due to support from the power grid and new energy sectors [1] - It is suggested to consider establishing long positions on copper at lower price levels [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices rose for the third consecutive trading day, driven by hopes of interest rate cuts in the US and positive economic data from China [1][3] - As of August 8, LME three-month copper increased by $77.5, or 0.8%, closing at $9,762.0 per ton, marking a cumulative increase of 1.4% for the week [1][2] - The US dollar weakened following President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, which bolstered expectations for rate cuts and made dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for foreign buyers [3] Group 2 - China's trade data showed a total import and export value of 3.91 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, the highest growth rate this year [3] - For the first seven months of the year, China's total trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - COMEX September copper contracts rose by 1.99% to $4.4860 per pound, or $9,890 per ton, resulting in a premium of approximately $128 per ton over LME copper [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices increased by 0.40% to $9,723.5 per ton due to a weaker dollar and improved demand expectations [1] - SHFE September copper contract rose by 0.14% to ¥78,490 per ton, with July copper ore imports at 2.56 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [2] - China's copper and copper products imports decreased by 2.6% year-on-year to 311,300 tons in the first seven months of the year [2] Group 2 - Codelco has applied to reopen part of its flagship mine following a recent fatal accident that disrupted production [3] - Short-term supply disruptions may lead to a rise in spot prices and downward pressure on processing fees according to analysts [3] - Other LME metals showed mixed performance, with aluminum up 0.31% to $2,618 per ton and nickel down 0.05% to $15,110 per ton [3]

Core Points - Century Aluminum plans to restart idle production at the Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, investing approximately $50 million and creating over 100 new jobs, which will increase U.S. aluminum production by about 10% [1] - The restart is attributed to President Trump's commitment to relocating critical metal manufacturing back to the U.S. [1] - The Mt. Holly facility, currently operating at 75% capacity, is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026 [1] Company Overview - Century Aluminum is a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, and primary aluminum products, with production facilities in the U.S., Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica [1] - The company focuses on increasing domestic aluminum production in response to market demands and government policies [1] Industry Context - The decision to restart production aligns with broader trends in the U.S. aluminum industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic manufacturing capabilities [1] - The investment and job creation are expected to have positive implications for the local economy and the overall aluminum supply chain in the U.S. [1]