这个周末在写25年的年终回顾，以及26年的展望，准备分别周日、周一发。 大家如果有什么特别想看的内容，也可以私信或者留言告诉我，我也用来拓展下思路和方向。 今天本来不写东西的，但看到两家私募相关的消息，涉及一些风险，还是聊一聊，权当提醒一下投资者朋友们。 ...... 第一个事 ，是最近大家都在当谈资的，某私募的创始人（咱就不提名字了，不然有蹭流量之嫌 ），公开售卖12888元的线下课程， 宣 传4节课教会普通人做投资，轻松实现10%以上的长期年化收益。 然后今天又发了个补充说明，提到，授课获得的收入，都会捐给慈善基金。 作为了解一些资管行业生态，且具备在互联网上做内容讨饭吃经验的人，我大概描述一下私募基金行业的销售生态。 剔除私募创始人自己的钱之外， 私募管理人 （仅指标准化资产相关的管理人） 募集的资金，主要来源于三个方向 。 第一，是熟人转介绍。 在资管行业，存量客户的口碑，就是最好的金字招牌，对于无法公开宣传业绩的私募基金而言，更是如此。 但是，存量客户愿意转介绍，前提是认为管理人比较靠谱，如果你业绩长期不太理想，尤其是吹过的牛逼无法兑现，比如说，路演的时候说是"宏 观对冲"，实际做的时候是"埋头猛冲 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continue to rise, with the Wind All A index breaking through 6400 points, reaching the fourth highest point of the year, just 0.5% away from a new closing high for 2025 [1] Company Analysis - The two popular new stocks, Mo Wang and Mu Xi, have seen significant price fluctuations, with Mo Wang peaking at 940 CNY and Mu Xi at 895 CNY, both experiencing a pullback of approximately 33% and 32% respectively [2][3][5] - There are concerns regarding the competitive edge of these companies, given their relatively short establishment period of less than five years, raising questions about their long-term sustainability and market share against potential new entrants [7] Investment Trends - The silver LOF experienced a significant drop, hitting the limit down, while over 20 other LOFs also faced similar declines, indicating a volatile trading environment [10][12] - The market is characterized by speculative trading, particularly in small-cap Hong Kong stocks and ETFs, which have shown erratic price movements due to T+0 trading characteristics [14] - A notable increase in investment in the electric grid equipment sector has been observed, with a substantial inflow of 450 million CNY into the electric grid equipment ETF, indicating strong institutional interest [32][33] Currency Movements - The offshore RMB has approached the 7 CNY mark against the USD, with expectations of further strengthening due to increased corporate willingness to convert USD to RMB, particularly in anticipation of year-end settlement needs [21][26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting various factors influencing market trends and potential investment opportunities, particularly in the insurance and AI sectors. Group 1: Market Influences - The offshore RMB exchange rate is approaching 7, with recent strength attributed to a 10-point drop in the US dollar index and a 4.5% depreciation against the RMB, indicating a "stagnation" of the RMB [2][4]. - The strengthening of the RMB enhances the cost-effectiveness of RMB-denominated assets, leading to a bullish outlook from foreign investment banks like Goldman Sachs on the A-share market [5]. - The S&P 500 recently reached a historical closing high, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounding, indicating a direct influence on the A-share AI hardware sector [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Precious metals have reached new highs, with gold surpassing $4,500, copper exceeding $12,000, and silver also performing well, contributing to the rebound in the A-share materials sector [10]. - The A500 ETF has seen significant inflows, totaling 74.5 billion RMB this month, indicating strong investor interest and a shift in market dynamics [12][13]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has surpassed 2.5 trillion RMB, reflecting a strong speculative atmosphere, with a notable increase of 650 billion RMB since the beginning of the year [25][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes the growing importance of strategy ETFs, which have seen a net inflow of over 30% this year, indicating a shift in investor preferences towards more structured investment approaches [35][39]. - The domestic strategy ETF market is still developing, with limited product offerings, but is expected to grow as investors seek more sustainable investment options [40][45]. - The article highlights two specific value strategy indices, indicating their potential for future growth and investor interest [41][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of insurance capital's movements in the financial markets, particularly regarding their investment strategies and outlook for 2026 [3][5] - The article discusses the recent surge in financing balance, reaching a historical high of 24,997 billion, which may trigger selling pressure as it approaches the 25 trillion mark [1] - The article outlines a structured approach to discussing key topics, including interest rate judgments, the transformation of dividend insurance, duration gaps, bond allocation strategies, and overall equity market outlook [4][5] Group 2 - Interest rates are deemed the most critical factor in investment decisions, with a consensus among insurance companies that rates will remain low and stable in 2026, although some express caution about potential upward movements [6][7][8] - The transformation of dividend insurance is highlighted as a significant trend, with companies aiming to reduce liability costs and increase equity allocations, leading to a shift in investment strategies [10][14][15][16] - The article discusses the management of duration gaps, emphasizing the need for insurance companies to balance asset and liability durations to mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [17][18][20] Group 3 - The bond allocation strategy for 2026 is characterized by a focus on market fluctuations rather than a single-direction trend, with an emphasis on timing purchases during market peaks [21][22][23] - The concept of "break-even yield" is introduced, indicating the necessary investment returns to cover existing liabilities, with current break-even yields for existing policies below 3% [24][27][28] - The overall outlook for the equity market is described as cautiously optimistic, with insurance companies recognizing the necessity of equity investments to avoid asset-liability mismatches [29][30][33] Group 4 - The article notes that insurance companies are required to allocate 30% of new premium funds to the A-share market, although the actual investment may be slightly lower than this target [34][36][37] - The impact of recent adjustments to risk factors for specific investment sectors is discussed, with larger insurance firms indicating minimal effects on their investment strategies [38][40][41] - The article highlights the growing preference for high-dividend stocks, particularly in the Hong Kong market, as a key focus for insurance capital investments [44][47][49] Group 5 - The article mentions the anticipated strong performance of dividend insurance in 2026, driven by a low base from 2025 and an increase in demand for dividend products [55][56] - Insights into the insurance sector's approach to new energy vehicle insurance are provided, noting higher premiums compared to traditional vehicles due to increased risk factors [60][61]

今天看到一个很有意思的新闻，说，阿里的千问，发布了"2025十大AI提示词"，也就是统计了一下，大家最爱找AI问什么问题，虽然我现在对千 问的能力有比较大的质疑，其C端基数也还完全不够打，但看看也无妨。 " 本次入选的十大高频提示词分别为： 股票、八字、情感咨询、朋友圈文案、景点推荐、双色球号码、失眠、解答这道题、离婚财产分割、人 生的意义 。 " 从前三大提示词可以看出，发财、升官、（）老婆/公，确实一直是中国人 最硬核的人生目标，也是最困扰大家的。 不过这个榜单有一个地方有点看不懂，双色球每次开奖都是独立的随机事件，理论上历史的结果无法影响下一期，所以，大家问双色球号码是为了啥？ 而"解答这道题"，确实是很实用的场景，现在把题目用AI拍照提问，可以给出非常完整的解题过程，解决了大量三年级及以上家长，无力教子女写作业的 问题。 另外，个人感觉，未来C端用户足够大的大模型公司，都能自己搞个量化公司炒股，因为投资的本质是"人性"，是"相信相信的力量"，是"寻找共 识"，大模型有了足够多的客户基数后，可以相对准确地刻画出人性和一致预期，这些用户自己输入的语料，可以最终凝练为非常好的量化因 子，比现在量化从全市场的 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming Christmas holiday and its impact on market activity, predicting a significant decrease in trading volume for Hong Kong and US stocks due to the holiday season [4] - The anticipated announcement of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on Monday is highlighted, with expectations of potential market volatility following the release [4] - The introduction of local "snow holidays" in Inner Mongolia is seen as a positive development for consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, as it reflects a growing trend in consumption culture [4] Group 2 - The article notes that the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25%, marking the highest level since 1995, which has led to a rally in global stock markets [10][9] - The increase in interest rates is attributed to rising inflation and pressure on the yen, although the yen depreciated against the dollar on the same day [13][15] - The cautious stance of the Bank of Japan regarding future rate hikes is emphasized, indicating potential market stability despite the recent rate increase [15] Group 3 - The price of Moutai has increased from 1485 yuan to 1560 yuan following the implementation of a new supply control policy, which is expected to stabilize prices in the white liquor market [19][18] - The performance of major liquor companies is mixed, with Moutai showing a slight increase while others have varied results, indicating a complex market response to the new policy [20][21] - Insights from industry analysts suggest that the high-end liquor market remains resilient, with brand value and consumer perception playing crucial roles in maintaining pricing power [25][28] Group 4 - ByteDance is rumored to achieve a net profit of 50 billion USD in 2025, with significant growth in its various business segments, including Douyin and TikTok [32][30] - The company's profitability is further supported by increased employee compensation and stock options, indicating strong financial performance [32] - Comparisons with other major tech companies suggest that ByteDance's potential earnings could rival those of Tencent and Alibaba combined, highlighting its significant market position [33] Group 5 - Gold prices have reached new highs, with spot gold hitting 4356 USD, approaching historical closing records [36] - The article discusses the contrasting views on gold investment amidst global economic uncertainty, emphasizing the importance of diversification in asset allocation [44] - The shift in investment strategies, particularly the reduction of US Treasury holdings in favor of gold, is presented as a prudent approach for individual investors [44]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the claims made by Professor Liu regarding the high percentage of retail investors suffering losses in the stock market, questioning the validity of the data presented and suggesting it may be misleading [3][5][10]. Summary by Sections Retail Investor Losses - Professor Liu states that approximately 80% of retail investors are currently at a loss, with an average loss of around 20,000 yuan, despite a generally positive market trend this year [3][4]. - The article challenges the source of this data, noting that there is no official disclosure of such statistics regarding retail investor profits and losses [6][10]. Impact of Quantitative Trading - Liu attributes the losses of retail investors to the advantages held by quantitative trading firms, which utilize high-frequency trading techniques that create an unfair market environment for individual investors [4][10]. - The article argues that the portrayal of quantitative trading as a primary cause of retail losses is overly simplistic and potentially harmful [11][13]. Critique of Data Validity - The article emphasizes the lack of credible sources for Liu's claims, suggesting that the data may have originated from unverified online discussions rather than empirical research [5][6][10]. - It raises concerns about the potential for misinformation to create unnecessary divisions between retail investors and market participants, including quantitative traders and regulators [10][12]. Call for Responsible Discourse - The article advocates for constructive dialogue regarding market reforms and the importance of accurate data in discussions about retail investor experiences [11][13]. - It criticizes the use of sensationalized claims for gaining attention and traffic, urging experts to uphold their responsibility to the public [15].

第六，不切实际的担忧 。比如，认为练一下腿，会把腿练粗。 其实，仔细想来， 男生不爱练腿的这些原因， 和投资上的一些"坏习惯"，也挺像的。 因为减肥的缘故，最近大半年，我基本每天都会去撸个铁，但凡经常去健身房的小伙伴，可能都会注意到一个规律——健身的男生，普遍喜欢练 上身，而不喜欢练腿。 我自己总结了几个原因： 第一，练腿不够显性，社交属性比较低 。因为胸肌肩膀背部手臂这些，都是显性肌肉，穿着衣服也能看出变化，但腿部肌肉基本看不出来，而 大部分男生健身后最开心的，无疑是旁人有意无意的捏一下自己，来一句，"哟，最近有健身啊"，但应该很少有人会摸腿。 第二，短期太痛苦，负反馈很明显 。练完一次腿，假如练得非常到位，那么，随后几天都会很痛苦。 第三，缺乏即时满足，投产比很低 。练完胸，胸涨涨的，练完腿，腿酸酸的，显然，涨涨的感觉，更让人有"我在变大"的沉醉感，而且坚持练 一个月胸，确实能把 T恤撑起来，但练1个月腿，可能表面看起来，毫无波澜。 第四，对动作要求比较高，且基本没法借力偷懒 。练其他部位的时候，可以借力，比如靠体重或者惯性完成一些动作，但练腿，深蹲能起来就 是能起来，起不来就是起不来，且对动作要求还高， ...

今天下午市场走得非常强，上午还是70-80%的个股下跌，等收盘的时候，就反过来了，wind全A涨超1.6%，在10月以来的所有交易日中，可以排 第二，算是四季度以来，大家吃得最好的一天了。 对下午的大反弹，市场有很多猜测，其中也包括说是大哥在买A500，这个就相当扯，咱们下午在星球里已经分析过了，直接排除。 其他的热点，慢慢道来。 ..... 第一，沐曦股份今日上市，市值突破3300亿，有大佬赚了接近200亿。 周日做展望的时候，咱们提到过，沐曦股份这周上市，参考摩王的情况，大概率又是一出好戏。 没曾想， 其首日表现比摩王还"癫" 。 上市发行价是104.66块/每股，结果今天暴涨693%，股价直接干到了830块，超越摩王，直接位居A股第三。 而市值方面，此前我看有卖方分析，其市值的安全边际在1000亿左右，结果今天收盘，直接突破了3300亿，超越了摩王上市首日的收盘市值（2800亿 +）， 下图 ，是海光信息、寒武纪、摩尔线程、沐曦股份，这四家可以同比的企业的总市值（红线）、自由流通市值（黄色）、以及前三季度净利润 （紫色）的数据。 可以看到，市场直接给与了沐曦股份，和摩王差不多的市值。 从业务层面看，如果 ...

今天市场跌的比较多，先聊点别的。 知识星球里，有不少大学生球友，他们的问题主要是和找工作、选offer相关，从这轮的秋招来看，能明显感觉到，今年金融专业的同学找工作， 难度相当大。 其一，帮大家分析一下金融行业的趋势，让大家意识到，很多问题其实是行业的共性问题，和个人关系不大； 其二，如果能通过这些趋势，帮大家辨明一下方向，那就更好了。 我梳理了一下，可能有几方面原因。 第一，金融行业供给侧改革加速，行业龙头集中化。 这块，我们在《 中小金融机构更危险了？ 》里深度聊过，供给侧改革的本质，是同质化产能的出清，同质化产能的背后是以往 的 地方金融自由 化，而地方金融自由化的背景是地方政府第二财政的派生需求，或者说是过往地方经济发展模式的结果之一。 在出清的过程中，意味着岗位数量的下滑—— 以农商行合并为例 ，各个县域农商行，本来都有自己的一整套班子，比如运营、科技、审计等 等，现在几十家农商行合并成一个了，原有的总行职能管理岗，以及各种中后台岗位，自然就编制过剩了。 这块可能是影响最大，也是最直接的。 第二，客户线上化，叠加代际变化，线下网点需求大幅缩减。 去年，全国银行业关闭的网点数量是2500多家，而截至1 ...