今天股市情绪很热，创业板涨了2个点，年初至今，主要宽基里，除了科创50，其他的，年内收 益全部都是正的了。 而今天A股和H股的分化，也能从资金的角度去理解——两融的日度数据还没出来，但是今天大 概率是继续净流入的，宁德时代这种幅度的大涨，大概率就是融资加仓的结果，而南向那边，则 净卖出超过30亿， 连续净买入的记录戛然而止 ，港股几个指数也因此下跌，和A股背离。 ...... OK，上面说到南向资金的事情，顺带简单聊下标题的话题—— 后续，股市的增量资金在哪里？ 我之前写过一篇，《 谁是真正的长期资金？ 》，里面画过一个表格，下图，从几个维度，分析，谁真 的有钱，且现阶段， 真的 有意愿加仓A股，并长期持有。 当时的结论是， 只有国家队，和保险的OCI账户及体外私募大基金 ，这两块，有大钱，且属于 长钱；如果一定要加的话，券商的自营账户，今年通过互换便利，也加了不少仓。 正好上半年，ETF和南下的资金数据都出来了，我多列几个，大家就能感受到今年的实际情况 了： 1、 南下资金 ，上半年，净买入7300亿左右 ，而去年全年是8000亿，也就是上半年的规模，已经 接近去年全年了，这是导致今年港股领涨的核心原因。 ...

一个，是中证Reits ，今天大涨超1%，明显和大盘背离，且1个点以上的涨幅，即使在连续上涨的 二季度，也仅出现过1天； 另一个，是银行股这边 ，继续大涨，港股这边迎来下半年首个交易日，港股银行大涨超2.2%，在 所有恒生行业指数中排第一，且建行领涨接近3%，而中行在四大行里垫底，"仅"上涨1.5%左右， 这背后的逻辑，我们昨天都已经聊过，并提前做出了预测分析，应该说，还是和实际情况相符 的。 今天市场有两块值得关注的亮点。 第一个亮点，依然是"季末调表，兑现利润"的后遗症 ，我们前两天聊的，节前异常下跌的两块资 产： 今天，财联社在 《真相调查， 银行股被险资配到上限了？ 》，也引用了咱们最近的观点，我在 本文的下半部分，会借助 泰康保险大佬 的公开观点，继续阐述一下，为什么说， 很多从业者忽 视了"前所未有的低利率"、"保险资产负债倒挂的紧迫性倒逼监管政策进入宽松周期"的长期性和 重要性。 另外，这回季末，还有一个事，大家关注的比较多，那就是 A500ETF 的冲量，华泰柏瑞最猛， 直接干破了200亿，弯道超车，成为A500的扛把子，堪称花小钱、办大事，季末营销的经典案 例，而嘉实等其他几家，季末也有发力 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened positively for the second half of the year, with stocks and ETFs rising around 50%, indicating stability [1] - Bank stocks experienced a rebound, rising by 1.5%, following a significant drop attributed to specific institutional profit-taking at the end of the quarter [1][2] - The performance of bank stocks is driven by capital flows, particularly from southbound investments, with a notable increase in the price of China Construction Bank (CCB) which reached a historical high [3][4] Group 2 - In June, southbound net purchases of CCB amounted to 12 billion HKD, making it the second most purchased stock after Meituan, indicating strong institutional interest [4][6] - The disparity in stock performance among the four major banks is linked to the net buying behavior of southbound funds, with CCB showing a 12% increase while Bank of China lagged behind [5][6] - The structural differentiation in bank stock performance is influenced by recent capital injections and the need for insurance funds to collaborate with banks for distribution of low fixed-rate insurance products [8] Group 3 - The sentiment in the market is shifting, with a notable increase in retail investor participation as evidenced by a significant rise in margin financing, indicating a resurgence in market confidence [14] - Recommendations for financial advisors include conducting thorough portfolio diagnostics for clients and ensuring appropriate risk assessments to align with client preferences [15][16] - The bond market is experiencing a favorable environment, with predictions of a strong performance in fixed income products, reinforcing the view that 2025 will be a year for fixed income strategies [22][23]

今天市场有四个热点。 第一，季末的调仓潮还在继续， 银行股继续跌，Reits也继续跌 ，这两块上半年涨的最好的资产，成为了交易账户兑现利润的最佳血包，不过， 这些季末的幺蛾子，属于非常态，所以，可以关注下明天的表现，是否有反复。 第二， 军工板块暴涨4个多点，领涨 ，而且已经连续涨了6天了，内外都 有驱动因素，外部，是北约成员国集体 同意 提高军费开支，整体来 看，全球的军费开支，未来很多年可能都会处于上行周期；内部，是日媒的消息，说我们邀请川宝过来参加阅兵，下午 朝阳门南大街2号的发言 人也没否认，因为川宝7月有两个棘手的大事要处理，一是7月4日前要通过大美丽减税法案，二是7月9日和各国的关税谈判要截止，所以最近明 显对我们比较友好，我们成了短期被团结的对象了。 第三，是大家开玩笑比较多的，村里换了logo，把原来套在一起的几个环，打开了，因此这算 "解套牛" ，比较巧的是，今天wind全A指数，收盘是5314 点，而10月8日是5295点，下图；而代表主动权益的wind偏股基金指数，今天的收盘价，也超过了10月8日，因此，如果你是去年10月8日那天追高进去买 的场外基金，那么，确实有不小的可能，今天解套了 ...

Group 1: Xiaomi's Performance - Xiaomi's Yu7 model achieved impressive sales, with 200,000 units pre-ordered within 3 minutes and over 240,000 units locked in total, indicating strong market demand [1] - In comparison, Li Auto's expected second-quarter delivery was around 110,000 units, highlighting Xiaomi's significant market share gain [1] - The strong sales of Yu7 are expected to impact other SUV manufacturers negatively, leading to declines in their stock prices, with BYD down 7%, Xpeng down 5.5%, and others down around 3-3.5% [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Fund Movements - Despite the positive sales news, Xiaomi's stock performance was below expectations, with a closing increase of only 3.6% after an initial 8% rise [2] - There was a significant net sell-off of Xiaomi shares, with southbound funds selling 3.2 billion, indicating a strong profit-taking sentiment among investors [3] - The sell-off is seen as a healthy market correction, preventing potential bubbles from forming [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - The banking sector experienced a decline of nearly 3%, attributed to specific institutional needs for balance sheet adjustments at the end of the quarter [7] - The Shenwan Banking Index fell by 2.86%, contributing approximately -1.45% to the overall decline of the low-volatility dividend index, indicating that the issue was primarily within the banking sector [8] - Institutional selling was driven by a combination of profit-taking and seasonal adjustments, with significant sell-offs occurring as banks reached historical highs [9][10] Group 4: Divergence in Banking Stocks - A divergence was noted between A-share and Hong Kong banking stocks, with A-shares declining while Hong Kong stocks began to rebound, suggesting continued buying interest from insurance funds [14] - The China Construction Bank in Hong Kong saw net purchases exceeding 1.3 billion, indicating strong demand despite the overall market downturn [17] Group 5: Commodity Market Insights - The metals sector, particularly copper, saw significant gains, with a rise of over 2% driven by tight global supply and increased demand [23] - The surge in copper prices is linked to supply shortages and geopolitical factors, with expectations of continued high performance in the metals sector [28]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent excitement in the bond market due to a trainee from the idol group SNH48 interning at a currency intermediary, leading to a humorous nickname "NCD48 bottom" for the bond market's short-term turning point [2][10] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a notable decline, influenced by three main negative factors, including the triggering of the weak-side convertibility undertaking for the Hong Kong dollar, which led to a liquidity withdrawal of approximately 9.4 billion [10][11] - The stock of Guojun International, which surged nearly 200% due to stablecoin license news, faced a significant drop the following day, highlighting the speculative nature of the brokerage sector [12][14][15] Group 2 - The biotech sector in Hong Kong faced pressure due to two negative events: a significant discount placement by Innovent Biologics and a disappointing cash flow situation for Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals, leading to a drop of over 10% in their stock prices [17][18] - The article emphasizes the importance of a "bull market" mindset, suggesting that investors should focus on structural opportunities rather than being deterred by macroeconomic challenges [21][28] - It highlights two main investment themes: high-dividend monopolistic sectors in a low-interest-rate environment and industry leaders with core competitiveness and reasonable valuations [24][25]

Group 1 - The market continues to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high, indicating a more structured market compared to previous days [1] - The rise in the market is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which positively impacts global risk assets [2][4] - The offshore RMB reached a new high, with the dollar index experiencing a downtrend, suggesting a favorable environment for non-USD assets [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is benefiting from the strong performance of the semiconductor index in the US, which has a positive impact on growth stocks in the domestic market [5] - The brokerage sector saw significant gains, particularly after a subsidiary of Guotai Junan International received a license for virtual asset trading, leading to a surge in related stocks [6] - The net buying of margin financing indicates bullish sentiment, with significant inflows into key stocks like Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun, which are major players in the growth index [8][9] Group 3 - Policy support for increasing residents' property income is expected to enhance market sentiment, as it relates to stock and fund investments [12] - There are discussions about potentially advancing local government bond issuance to alleviate debt burdens, which could positively impact the stock market [13] Group 4 - The upcoming Xiaomi product launch is anticipated to attract market attention, especially given the recent underperformance of major tech stocks in Hong Kong [28][30] - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with institutions shifting focus towards interest rate bonds amid stock market strength [36][40]

今天市场不太需要解释了吧，涨的人头晕目眩，标题里暴涨两个字，应该没用错吧？ 上证指数重新回到3400点以上，还没突破3月中旬的高点，但事实上，由于A股年内创纪录的高分红， 包含了分红的上证收益指数，下图，已经 创下年内新高了 ，这才是更公允的指标。 所以，这的确是一个扬眉吐气的日子，那些平日里天天说A股没有投资价值，港股即将A股化的小黑子，我都不知道今天还能找到什么吐槽的 点。 当然，上证只涨了1%，属于是涨的最差的宽基了，今天最火热的，还是成长板块，而成长板块的大涨，还有两个"副作用"。 而今天大涨的原因，有几个，可以依次盘一盘。 第一，当然是中东局势缓和，伊以停火的消息 ，今天不仅是A股H股大涨，韩国股市也涨近3%，日本、欧洲都涨超1%，美股期货也继续上涨， 虽然下午开始，停火的消息反反复复，但从原油、黄金、风险资产的价格来看，市场还是定价，整体朝缓和的方向发展，只不过涉及的三方，有 些需要面子，有些需要梯子。 第二，外围这边，美国降息的预期在抬升 ，而今天日中，还有国内7月降息的小作文，这两天，美联储的鲍师傅要去国会接受质询，主要课题就 是回答一个问题，为什么不降息？ 而川宝这边，也煽风点火，下图 ，希 ...

因此，第一张图，可以这么理解——不管各类媒体渲染的多么夸张，但资产价格不太会骗人，原油和黄金的走势，给了投资风险资产的人，充分 的信心，这是今天最主要的一条主线。 第二张图，开盘之后，第一波上涨，来自半导体芯片板块 ，下图是日内A股的热点分布图，主要原因，是周五晚上美国那边传出来的一个利空。 背景是这样的，2022年的时候，美国禁止向我们出口光刻机、刻蚀机等芯片制造设备，但给了韩国的三星、SK海力士，以及台积电豁免权（相当于给盟 友的特权），允许它们在大陆的工厂，继续使用美国设备，无需额外审批。 周末中东局势加剧，大家都担心A股又要交军费了，但没想到今天权益市场异常坚挺，A股这边，5000多只个股里头，80%的上涨；而近1000只 权益ETF里，90%的上涨，只有食品饮料板块，跌幅相对较大，在0.5%以上。 其实，用几张图，就能大致刻画一下，今天市场反弹的动能。 第一张图，看恒生指数和布伦特原油的日内走势图 ，基本是反向的关系，也就是油价下跌，股指上涨。 简单解释一下，黄金和原油期货，你可以简单理解为，在交易日，全球范围来看，都是接近24小时交易的品种，其中亚盘的时间段，悉尼因为是 最早看到太阳升起的，所以最 ...

今晚我们聊简单点，从今天ETF的涨幅榜聊起，下图，可以看到，排第一的是白酒方向，而后面 的2-5位，被港股金融和红利类的ETF霸占了，其中领涨的，是之前我们提到过的港股非银ETF， 513750。 白酒领涨 ，主要是这两天极度悲观情绪的反转——之前体制内禁止吃喝的规定 甚嚣尘上，愈演 愈烈，引发官媒站出来"拨乱反正"，表示对政策扭曲的过度了，市场算是吃了一颗定心丸，当 然，上面也说了，只是极度悲观情绪的反转，从基本面来看，今天散装的飞天茅台跌到了1900 块，下跌趋势仍未中断。 而港股金融，尤其是港股非银领涨，则主要是因为 今天港股的保险板块集体大涨 ，背后的一个 原因，是18号，就是本周三，金融监管总局下发的一个红头文件，《 关于分红险分红水平监管意 见的函 》，其核心，是规定未来寿险公司的分红险产品，不能随意任性提高分红了。 换句话说，不能过度内卷化地无序PK了，因此， 行业整体的成本有望下降 ，对保险公司，尤其 是头部保险，显然是利好。 昨天港股被全体杀跌后，今天市场回过神来，对这个文件，又进行了一轮定价，因此，大家可以 看到，港股非银ETF里的内地寿险公司，都是3-5个点的大涨。 大家可能对背后的逻辑 ...