昨天打完电话后，全球股市没有迎来想象中的反弹，除了韩国股市继续因为李在明的"5000点不是梦"大涨外，其他股市都表现一般。 A股这边 ，上涨和下跌的股票正好是2600 vs 2602，平平过，无惊无喜； 美股那边 ，则因为川宝和马斯克的撕逼大战（看 这儿 ），被吓了一跳，反而是高开低走。 民生宏观做了一个，过去5年，中美领导人通话后，当天、后一天、后一周、后一个月的资产表现对比，下图，我感觉，也没什么特别大的规律可循，不 过，整体来看， 这次通话，对A股来说，至少是积极的因素要多一点 ，因为美国人看起来确实有很急迫的需求，需要被满足。 | 图4： 历次中美元首通话后资产表现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 中美元首通话当天资产表现(%) | | | | | | 时间 | 2025/1/17 | 2024/4/2 | 2022/7/28 | 2022/3/18 | 2021/11/16 | 2021/9/10 | 平均 | | 标普500 | 1.00 | -0.72 | 1.21 | 1.17 ...

具体聊了啥，无从得知，从资产价格的变化来看： 避险资产， 现货黄金 ，从日内的高位，3400美刀，短线跳水到3380美刀， 跌0.7%左右 ； 今天权益市场整体还是很强 ，A股这边，午后TMT开始集体拉涨，消息面上 ，全天，都在传今天双方可能通电话的事情，整体提振了市场的情 绪。 今晚19点的新闻联播显示，今天韩副会见了" 中美高级别二轨对话 "的美方代表团，所谓二轨 （Track 2） ，就是区别于政府直接参与的"一轨"， 指由智库、退休官员、学者及社会人士主导的民间对话 。 而晚上21点多不到，新华社消息，中美双方领导人通电话。 这么看来，电话可能应该是19点之后打的。 整体，市场对通话的定价是——小幅乐观。 ...... 回到今天的市场方面。 风险资产， 标普500美股期货 ，消息传出后， 拉涨0.3%左右 ，开盘后，标普500现货也是小涨，和期货变动一致。 新加坡的 富时A50期货 ， 涨0.3%左右 。 短期追高的，就只能喊一句shit了，正应了昨晚我们的封面图——花钱当买个教训了。 这两天，还有人搞了各种图，把近期最火的一些新消费的元素摆到了一起，下面这个， 如果把背景放在常州足球场的草坪上的话 ...

今天权益市场依然走的很强，A股和港股的主要指数都是全面上涨的态势，当然，最火的，还是港股的三支票， 泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、蜜雪冰城 ，都是 大涨后创股价的历史新高。 三者年初至今的涨幅比较吓人，泡泡玛特是174%，老铺黄金是312%，蜜雪冰城3月初刚上市，至今涨幅是135%，亮瞎眼的水平。 现在市场称这三家是港股三朵金花，我觉得不妨各取一字，就叫"老雪特"，old shit，对应新消费，还好记一点 。 三者大涨的背后，核心当然是目前市场对新消费的追捧和炒作——去年公开数据显示，量化资金占A股成交量的30%左右，现在我估计可能已经到了40% 往上了，算上游资，这两块的资金也许占A股成交额的一半以上，最后呈现出来的特征就是， 板块轮动很快，炒作一茬接着一茬，而且换仓的时候毫不留 情 ，比如最近，前期最火的机器人哑火之后，资金的火力就快速集中在了新消费和创新药上面。 从A股的融资买入额来看，昨天，医药板块全行业排名第一，这应该是很久没有过的情况了，也可以印证上面说的逻辑。 泡泡和老铺现在都是100倍的市盈率，蜜雪是50倍左右，到底是不是资金怼出来的泡沫，大家仁者见仁吧，个人觉得，虽然相比机器人而言，新消费的景 气度和 ...

今天整个A股和港股都 强的出乎大多数人的预料 ，毕竟从端午假期来看，不管是川宝提到的毁约 威胁，还是双双低于荣枯线的官方和财新PMI，亦或是5月快速降温的地产销售数据，都构成了实 打实的利空，而利好的话，有且只有一个，那就是双方领导人本周通话的传闻，但也仅仅是美方 的单方面消息。 港股 那边，还容易解释一点，主要是南下资金开闸后，迅速把昨天的坑都给填上了——下午15点 左右的时候，南下净买入达到了75亿左右，昨天领跌的港股地产、银行、医药、整车，今天全线 领涨，收复失地。 而 A股 这边，今天主要是有色、银行和创新药的行情。 还是聊聊银行吧， 今天A股和港股的银行指数，双双刷新历史新高 ，涨的很多人都恐高了。 节前，在《 保险爆买了1000亿？ 》里，我们重点聊了险资加仓港股银行的事情，最后提了一 嘴，下图这段话，今天简单展开解释一下，什么是众多矛盾中的主要矛盾。 ...... 银行股持续上涨的过程中，看空银行的声音很多，我个人认为，这些看空的声音，不仅很合理， 也是必要的。 看空者的主要逻辑在于 ，银行的经营情况，是边际恶化的，不管是收入端的净息差，还是成本端 的不良——这些都没有问题，我也抱有相同的观点。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant drop in the morning, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling over 3%, but managed to recover slightly by the end of the day, closing down less than 1% [2] - The total trading volume of Hang Seng Index constituent stocks was around 145 billion, compared to over 270 billion on the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, indicating a substantial impact on market liquidity and pricing due to the absence of southbound capital [2] - The sectors that saw the most significant declines included real estate, banking, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, correlating with the negative market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The real estate sector faced pressure, particularly from New World Development, which announced a delay in the payment of four perpetual bonds originally due in June, leading to a drop of over 10% in its stock price [4] - The sales data for major real estate companies in mainland China showed a noticeable slowdown, indicating that the "small spring" in the market may have ended [4] - The banking sector, closely tied to real estate, also suffered, with major banks experiencing declines of over 3% [4] Group 3 - The biopharmaceutical sector was negatively impacted by news from Kangfang Biotech, which saw its stock drop over 10% due to concerns about the future of its cancer drug after failing to meet clinical trial standards [5] - The overall biotechnology sector experienced the largest decline in the market, with a drop of up to 4.5% [5] Group 4 - The automotive sector faced headwinds from macroeconomic factors, particularly statements from the U.S. administration regarding increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, which affected global automotive manufacturers [10] - Chinese automotive stocks, including BYD and NIO, also saw declines of 4-5% in response to these developments [11] Group 5 - Recent developments in the insurance sector included the approval of a 30 billion fund by Ping An, part of a broader trend of long-term stock investment initiatives by major insurance companies [22][26] - The central bank's recent monetary policy actions included a significant liquidity release of approximately 1.2 trillion, indicating ongoing efforts to manage economic conditions [28] Group 6 - The recent PMI data showed a slight improvement but remained below the growth line, with key price indices continuing to decline, suggesting increased pressure on pricing strategies within industries [28][29] - The automotive industry has been warned against price wars, which are seen as detrimental to product quality and industry sustainability [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the market, particularly focusing on the recent fluctuations in the stock of ZhongAn Online, which surged by 30% before experiencing a significant drop of around 15% the following day. This highlights the unpredictable nature of hot investment topics like stablecoins and the impact of market sentiment on stock performance [1]. Market Updates - The market experienced a downturn, reversing the gains from the previous day, with no significant news apart from the announcement regarding the upcoming Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, scheduled for June 18-19, 2025, where major financial policies are expected to be announced [3][20]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 10% since the last Lujiazui Forum, indicating a positive market response to previous policy announcements [3]. Policy Directions from Previous Forums - Key policy directions from the last year's forum included: 1. Reforming the sales system and promoting the integration of reporting and operations in the banking and insurance sectors, leading to a significant decrease in marketing costs and an increase in new business value for insurance companies [7][8]. 2. Adjusting the pricing mechanism for insurance products to mitigate risks associated with interest rate differentials, with a notable increase in dividend insurance premiums for the first time in five years [8]. 3. Exploring pilot investments of insurance funds in gold contracts, which has been implemented this year [9]. Financial Regulatory Insights - The central bank emphasized the need for quality over quantity in financial institution growth, leading to a shift in focus from scale to shareholder returns and dividend ratios [11]. - The introduction of new measures for M1 statistics and the establishment of a primary policy interest rate through the 7-day reverse repurchase rate have been implemented [12]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining currency stability has resulted in a strong performance of the RMB against the USD, with a significant reduction in the trade deficit [14]. Anticipated Developments - Expectations for the upcoming forum include updates on previously mentioned policies and new initiatives such as: 1. Expansion of pilot programs for long-term insurance fund investments, which could become a core source of capital for the stock market [20]. 2. A potential decrease in preset interest rates for insurance products, with a focus on the implementation of pricing mechanisms [20]. 3. Monitoring the progress of bank and insurance institution asset management product disclosure regulations, which are crucial for the development of bank wealth management [20]. 4. Continued attention on the merger of rural commercial banks and the implications for the banking sector [20]. 5. The impact of new regulations on IPO financing for technology companies and the implementation of merger and acquisition rules [20].

今天A股和港股全线上涨，其实应该说是全球风险资产全体上涨，下图，我特意等到美股开盘之后截了一张，全球股市一 片红。 当然，估计绝大多数小伙伴，只是看到了这条快讯，了解了个大概，我试图一层一层的， 用大白话 ，帮大家把这件事本 身，及其背后完整的逻辑梳理一下，看看有没有帮助。 1、川宝本届政府有 三大政策目标 ，一是对外加税，二是对内减税，三是放松对企业的监管。 2、你把美国比作一个企业的话，这三大政策目标，就好像公司高管定了一个4年的战略规划（实际2年后董事会就要考核 了，也即美国的中期选举），要对外多拓展业务（增效），内部要降低各项成本（降本），同时，要取消对销售人员的打 卡要求，年底也不再考核合规，反正谁能卖出去，谁能给公司赚钱，谁就牛逼。 3、三大政策目标，也分优先级， 最优先的，就是对外加征关税 ，为什么呢？其一，如果不加税，没额外的收入，容易入 不敷出，就没法推动对内的减税；其二，对外加税，可以扬我（美）国威，万邦来谈，纷纷俯首称臣，可以产生舆论上的 杠杆效应，毕竟美国红脖子信这一套；其三，加征关税，阻力最小，不需要通过国会，而对内的减税法案，需要通过众议 院和参议院，一时半活儿也产生不了业绩。 4 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around a certain car dealership in Shandong facing financial difficulties, which the car manufacturer claims is not due to its policies but rather the dealership's reckless expansion and leverage operations [1][2][3][4]. - The dealership's leverage primarily involves inventory financing and operational leverage, where they may have over-purchased vehicles either voluntarily or due to pressure from the manufacturer [5][6]. - The market reaction has been negative, with the stock price of the car manufacturer experiencing a cumulative decline of over 10% [8]. Group 2 - The equity market has shown weakness, with a notable increase in major shareholders' reduction of holdings, reaching a new high for the year with 112 companies announcing reduction plans in the first week after the May holiday [12][14]. - The overall reduction in holdings is constrained by regulations established in May of last year, which have significantly limited the scale of capital reduction compared to previous years [16]. - There is a potential for the trend of capital reduction to be relaxed, as the current high valuations of small-cap stocks may prompt regulatory adjustments to ensure the long-term health of the A-share market [18]. Group 3 - In the bond market, while interest rates on government bonds and deposits have been rising, the credit bond market, particularly lower-rated varieties, continues to perform well, with narrowing spreads indicating strong demand [27][28]. - The Japanese central bank's significant holdings in both ETFs and government bonds highlight the importance of maintaining a balance between equity and debt investments, despite facing unrealized losses on government bonds [29][30][31].

先接着简单聊一下昨晚说的，长城炮轰新能源车行业乱象的事情， 今天一共有3个后续。 其二，上午统计局公布了1-4月的规上工业企业利润，按照统计局的分析，1-4月，其实制造业企业的利润增速 非常好，几乎是拖着整个工业企业的利润往上走，其中装备制造业前4个月利润同比增11.2%，高技术制造业则 同比增9%，且4月单月的增速明显进一步提高；但从数据看，唯独汽车制造业拖后腿了，营收同比增6.9%，但 利润同比跌-5.1%，典型的增收不增利，这也可以从宏观视角，看到汽车行业降价竞争的惨烈。 其三，下午开始传，某车企在山东的某经销商暴雷的消息，其实事情是发生在4月份了，但整体看，相比于整车 厂，经销商的压力，目前无疑是更大的，而且已经在面临生死存亡的时刻。 那么，新能源车降价之风能止住么？ 我个人觉得，难。 如果靠行政力量可以干预的话，光伏行业也不至于蛰伏这么多年了——某种程度而言，整车厂和光伏行业 还特别像，背后，其实都是地方资金的身影。 但后续的措施还是得有，否则大家购买新车的热情会迅速下降，可能会形成负向循环。 所以， 对车企来说，可能未来只有两条路走得通。 一是继续熬，继续耗，直到成为这场消耗战最后的玩家之一，走一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the stock prices of major Chinese automakers BYD and Geely is attributed to a combination of industry price wars and negative commentary from industry leaders regarding market practices [1][2][14]. Group 1: Industry Issues - The automotive industry is facing severe issues, including a price war that has led to losses exceeding 100 billion yuan, with some companies reportedly losing money on every vehicle sold [4][5]. - The price war has resulted in compromised vehicle safety due to cost-cutting measures, delayed payments to suppliers, and a drastic drop in the resale value of used cars, which negatively impacts the reputation of Chinese automakers abroad [5][6]. - There is a trend of capital-driven blind expansion in the industry, leading to decreased capacity utilization and increased losses, with some companies relying heavily on external funding rather than profitability [5][6]. - The phenomenon of "zero-kilometer used cars" is prevalent, where new cars are registered as used to inflate sales figures and obtain subsidies, effectively creating hidden price reductions [6][7]. Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - BYD recently announced a major promotional event, reducing prices on 22 models by up to 53,000 yuan, which is seen as a direct escalation in the ongoing price war [11][14]. - The competitive landscape is further complicated by the fact that BYD and Geely have significantly higher sales volumes compared to Great Wall Motors, which has a lower focus on electric vehicles [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The stock market's reaction to the price war and industry commentary has led to significant declines in share prices for major automakers, reminiscent of past market responses to similar pricing strategies [16]. - Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook suggests that the industry may consolidate, benefiting leading companies as the market stabilizes and matures [16]. - There is potential for growth in the export of traditional and hybrid vehicles, particularly in regions lacking electric vehicle infrastructure, indicating a broader market opportunity beyond just electric vehicles [18][19].